Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Watch: Born to be Wild Card?

by River City Rage on Oct 10, 2008 10:44 AM EDT in News Comment 7 comments

[Note by River City Rage, 10/10/08 10:44 AM EDT ]This is actually by Collin, but there was a glitch in the HTML which made the site look weird. -Chris

"Must Win a Mile High"

Get ready Jag fans, it is almost time for the last Jaguar game for two long weeks, and it is a doozy of a draw. The Jaguars will be heading to Mile High Stadium and need to come away at 3-3 to realistically have a shot at getting into playoffs.

Right now there are a few AFC teams who own the tiebreaker against us because they beat us this season. I can't stress enough how crucial it is that these teams win their division. Were they not to win the division, they not only will be in direct competition with us, but they will have a leg up on us. This means that if we both were to have the same record overall, they automatically get in over us because of the tiebreaker advantage.

The Teams Who Own the Tiebreaker Against Us :

1. Pittsburgh - AFC NORTH

2. Buffalo - AFC EAST

LAST WEEK'S KEY MATCH-UPS :

Let us take a look at last week's key games to see whether or not they went as we hoped.

Ravens - Titans : Titans won again... Not Ideal. this team is over-powering everyone right now.

Colts - Texans : Colts somehow pulled it out... Not Ideal

Chargers - Dolphins : Dolphins won on a 4th and goal stand at the one yard line... Ideal. May be competitive this season for a wild-card spot. They looked solid in this win.

Patriots - 49ers : Patriots won... Not Ideal. They are ahead of us in a wild-card race as of now, I don't think they'll unseat the Bills at the front of the division, but they may try to slide into the playoffs.

Bills - Cardinals : The Cardinals somehow put up 41 on the Bills D... Not Ideal. We need them to win their division handily.

Buccaneers - Broncos : Broncos won by a field goal... Ideal. We want Denver to easily win the division and we need San Diego to continue to struggle in the AFC WEST.

Chiefs - Panthers : Ideal. Panthers demolish the chiefs, who from here on out will have their name written only in lower-case lettering, due to their horrible play. I love Herm Edwards, mostly for his sound-bites, but it's a freakshow over there. Get it together Herm!

THIS WEEK'S KEY MATCH-UPS

Patriots @ Chargers : This is such a toss-up that I really am not sure whom to say it would be ideal to win. The New England Patriots travel to sunny San Diego where I believe we actually want the Patriots to win. The Patriots are 3-1 right now, but without their star QB, they won't hold it together. We want the Chargers to continue to fall behind both us (in the Wildcard battle) and the Broncos (In their Division). Maybe I don't have enough faith in Matt Cassel to hold it together for a season, but I'm not concerned with the Patriots at 4-1 given the ease of their schedule so far.

Raiders @ Saints : Always root for the NFC in an AFC vs NFC match-up, unless it is a team we want to win their division. A victory by the Saints would be Ideal.

Dolphins @ Texans : I am actually going to deviate from the norm here a bit. Miami seems to be gaining steam and if Houston ever catches us, it will mean that we aren't in contention for the playoffs anyway. So I actually think it would be Ideal for the Texans to win this week, but I completely understand any argument made to the contrary.

Bengals @ Jets : A Cincinnati win would be Ideal. They have no chance of being contenders over there anyway.

Giants @ Browns ( Monday) : Go for the NFC team.

GAME OF THE WEEK :

Ravens @ Colts : We must stay ahead of the Colts, a Raven victory would be Ideal. Baltimore will be headed to Indy to face the crowd-noise of Lucas Oil Field. The Colts are battered on defense so look for long sustained drives again this week. Flacco is at his best when he doesn't have to put the team on his shoulders, and their defense is spectacular (as we'll see first hand later this year).

Your thoughts? Especially those regarding my picks of the Patriots over the Chargers, and the Texans over the Dolphins. I think it is very important we put some distance between ourselves and the Chargers because they are a solid all around team and are bound to spring back sooner rather than later. A Dolphin win puts Miami at 3-3 (hard to believe, eh?). That's my reasoning for rooting for the Texans in that game despite the Texans being in our division.

-Collin

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A different way to look at it

Collin,

I appreciate the analysis and as always appreciate your writing and insight. As for a playoff watch, I have a different way to watch the games now to see how we are doing…

Is Derrick Harvey geting closer and closer to the quarterback? Are they double teaming him, is he drawing attention?

How good is Derrick Landi and Rob Meir in pushing and disrupting the offensive line? Is the middle getting clogged up and a push happening?

How close to the play is Reggie Nelson? Did he miss his assignment or is he finally on the same page as Rasheen?

How is Sesabaugh coming along? This is his first real responsibility season. Is he being picked on?

Which receiver is breaking open deep, even though he isn’t getting the ball?

Are we getting 4 yards per carry out of the running backs?

This is what I watch for. If these things happen, then the playoffs are right around the corner. If not, we will wait. It takes the stress off to see the progression of the team rather than the score.

Thanks for letting me comment.

by Tkopa on Oct 10, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I do the same thing

But the problem is I only do it when I’m watching it on replay.

by Ewdtrey on Oct 11, 2008 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And?

I’m curious as to whether or not these players ARE progressing in your view? I don’t really know enough about the game (yet) to give an informed opinion…. but from watching the games I’ve thought that both Harvey and Groves are getting better with each game. The “push up the middle” seems to happen from time to time. Our WRs seem to be getting better too, especially Walker and Porter does seem to get open a fair bit.

by KeithG on Oct 11, 2008 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is what I think I see

Harvey and Groves are not lined up in any one position, but are moved around. I like that and I think they are being developed to take advantage of mismatches. Groves can be pushed wide and the run opens to that side. Harvey is the better and is getting closer to the quarterback. He can’t shed that block yet, but looks to have the instincts of a good DE. Both are going to be trouble for opponents in the coming year. I think the draft gamble might pay off.

The entire defensive backfield is struggling in the new defensive scheme except Rasheen Mathis who has 2 interceptions for touchdowns. The experiment away from cover 2 didn’t quite work for the entire backfield and cover 2 seems more comfortable right now. I still don’t see that silent communication with Reggie, he has a tendency to make plays but still miss assignments. I don’t now if it is always him, but I think Rasheen gets frustrated with him sometimes.

I think Sensebaugh is actually coming along well and belongs out there as does Brian Wlliams. I think it is a good secondary they just hasn’t figured out how to work together yet. Drayton Florence has the instincts of an assassin and Sensebagh is big and can hit. I actually see hope here.

I don’t see anything in the Defensive Line middle that is collapsing the pocket just yet. I think Derick Landri might be the most disruptive, but I can’t tell for sure. Rob Meir and John Henderson are not the twin towers we had a few years back. Henderson is actually playing well, but there is no threat to collapse the pocket. I believe the linebackers are getting clogged up in runs because the defensive line middle isn’t pushing the guards backwards. I don’t think Mike Peterson has had clear lines at the running back.

Unfortunately I see nothing in the receiving corps that is getting better. I don’t know where Reggie Williams is, where Mercedes Lewis is, why Dennis Northcut is not playing, and so we have no replacement for Ernest Wilford yet. I don’t see this improving. I have seen some receivers get behind the defense, Matt Jones has for sure. What I didn’t see is David finding them. I think David is the most unnerved by the changes in receivers and in the line. MJD may end up as the leading receiver this year. David is playing conservative and maybe with good reason.

The offensive line can pass block and that is all. There will be no running game until the line returns. We are decemated here and the players that are out injured may never return to their previous form. I would sign Kahlif Barnes to a new contract. He and Tony Pashos still show starter ability.

So what I see this year is a defense that will show mild improvement, more sacks and maybe more takeaways. I don’t see us ranking in the upper half of the league in yards per game but I don’t see blow outs against us.

On Offense I think what we see is what we have. David will try to go deeper downfield more out of desperation than ability. The run game will not come around this year. It might slightly improve when Mester returns but I don’t see two 1000 yard running backs this year and maybe not next year. We are going to be rebuilding the line. Fred passing Jim Brown is not a this year achievement. This is what saddens me most, I loved screaming for Fred and Maurice when they break it. That was Jaguar football.

I see a team holding together an 8-8 season with a more aggressive training camp next year. Too many changes in coaching, new players and and in injury patching this year. One more note, I think Jerry Porter thought he would be the star of a super bowl team. I worry that his expectations didn’t match reality and that both his physical ability and mental attitude have been affected. I do see enough strength on this team to build a championship team. I see some are developing and some are reahbilitating and some of the coaches are learning what they have. I see a stronger 2009 than 2008.

I know someone will call me an idiot and maybe for good reason, but that is what I think I see. Also, these observations don’t mean I have given up on the team. I am in my seats every home game and pacing the floor every televised game.

by Tkopa on Oct 11, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like you're seeing

what I’m seeing. Finally someone agrees with me. The DT’s are not collapsing the pocket or giving the LB’s lanes. The DE’s do look good and they will improve. Somewhat suprisingly Groves has a better bull rush than Harvey. Harvey is going to need to get stronger. It looks like a core strength problem. However his ball get off is second to almost none.
I like your assessment of our secondary. Very much how I would describe it (personnel speaking).
I think we are one RG away from a run game. If that’s true I think it will happen a game after the bye.
I actually like our receivers. As soon as we get a good pocket WITH PASSING LANES, we will see our passing game take off. Garrard a shorter guy needs passing lanes to throw.
Marcedes isn’t playing as badly as people think. If you go back and watch his drops he didn’t have any that were really catchable dropped in that last game. And in the game before of his four “drops,” one was knocked away, one was thrown behind him and one was low away and useless for getting the first down(still probably should have caught that one though). But I’m not gonna get on a guy for 1 true drop.

by Ewdtrey on Oct 11, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I don’t have the benefit of coaches film or even replay, so I am basing my opinion on first impressions. A closer study would reveal more. If you know more, please share!

I actually would like to encourage a decent informed dialog on what people see are the problems and improvements. I am not as concerned about this year’s playoff picture as I am in the building of a champion. I just think this year is a jinxed year and if we learn what we need to learn and hang in there, it will deliver benefits in the future. Just maybe not this year and that’s ok with me. I want to enter the playoffs with a strong and intelligent team. If we can get there quickly and this year, great.

by Tkopa on Oct 11, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008 not happening for us

Can’t decent. Colin will vouch that I’ve seen the same thing since the end of preseason (I actually had the team 9-7, finishing 3rd in the division and missing playoffs). We do not have the depth on D line that we did last year. I think we’ve had a bad offseason. I’m not sold on either of our first 7 draft picks (Harvey / Groves). I’ve never been sold on Porter – a couple of good seasons playing opposite Randy Moss doesn’t make a super star. O line injuries have hurt without question; however, all teams are going to take away the run (Thank you Pitt in playoff game last year). This O will have to establish the pass to open up the run and we simply do not have the explosiveness at WR nor the consistency to strike fear into opposing secondaries.

by OGN on Oct 15, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs