Jack Del Rio has sent the message that the turnaround of the Jaguars is about to begin and change is coming.  To me, the real question is can Jack correctly diagnose the problem?  Can he fix situations or just fix blame?   Is he an elite Head Coach or not?   Where will he go, offense or defense? This will be very interesting to follow as it unfolds. 

We can all offer opinions on what should be done, but sometimes facts point to a different solution.  Let's focus on defense for a moment. When a defense takes the field it seeks to minimize the opponents yards gained.  A good defense stops the opposing offense from going anywhere.  The fewer yards allowed, the fewer points.  Not all points scored in a game are the defense's fault, but all offensive yards are.

In a season, there are 256 games played with 256 wins and 256 losses. In the 2005 season, the 256 winning teams defense allowed an average of 291 yards. The 256 losing teams defense allowed an average of 341 yards.  50 yards a game on average decided victory or defeat,  These statistics are remarkable consistent year over year. 

2005 winners allowed 291 yards, losers allowed 341. 2006 winners allowed 298 yards, losers allowed 345. 2007 winners allowed 296 yards, losers allowed 353. First half of 2008, winners allowed 290 yards, losers allowed 359.  In short, when your defense is allowing 300 yards a game or less, you are probably in the playoff hunt.  If you are allowing 350 yards or more, you are probably sitting home watching. Exceptions exist, but not many.

The 2008 Jaguars first 7 games allowed an average of 339 yards. In the last 4 games they have allowed an average of 284 yards.  If Reggie Nelson gets one more step and knocks the ball away once in the Tennessee game, the average of the last 4 would drop to 273.  In comparison, the top defensive team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, allow 240 yards a game.  It is hard to move against the Steelers.  It has become harder to move against the Jaguars. The great Tennessee 2008 defense is allowing 280 yards a game.

Here is the point, Greg Williams is beginning to turn this defense into a very good defense.  Despite what you want to believe or how much you hate what happened in the early part of the season, Greg Williams is beginning to turn this defense into a very good defense.  This despite NO PASS RUSH.  You give Greg Williams one or two more sacks a game and this defense will sparkle, a top 5 defense. The man is trying to work miracles. I see a defense that has come on since Daryl Smith took over the middle.  If you look closely at each Jaguar game in 2008 you will find that if the defense stops just one third or fourth down play, the average yards allowed drops under 300 and we are in the playoff hunt.  Tennessee, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati all had one third or fourth down play that went for 44 or 33 or 18 or 51 yards and each time that play made the difference. Those missed assignments or missed tackles need to be looked at. The secondary will be evaluated, the defensive line will be evaluated. (A certain second round DE with a quick flinch that draws the off sides flag should be talked to.)  The defensive coordinator, in my view, is more than fine.   

But we lost 3 of the last 4 games. The defense didn't come through, you might say.  No, look to an offense that has completely fallen apart recently.  5 turnovers againt the Vikings and no production in generating points has been the problem.   Look no further than holding penalties and quarterback sacks to see an offensive line with issues, especially at tackle.  Look no further than a HOF candidate running back down 50% in production this year to recognize offensive line problems. (By the way, he is a man of immense class, never once throwing anyone under the bus) Look no further than a quarterback becoming the season rushing leader to see offensive line problems. Look at a quarterback who won't throw deep downfield to see a man who doesn't think he has time to set and throw (or someone to throw to).   (Look to a first round tight end that generates more penalties than points to see another improvement opportunity. When a QB is running for his life, his TE should be somewhere to be found)  The front office ignoring the offensive line is an area of weakness.  Bill Parcells, Jeff Fisher, Bill Polian typically don't ignore that area like we do.  I know we got injured, but we haven't invested either.  Right now Ryan Clandy would contribute more than a nameless rich first round holdout....(sorry) 

When Jack starts his evaluation, if he attacks Greg Williams then in my opinion he went the wrong way.  If he signals an emphisis on offensive line rebuilding, then he has started down the right road.  I think Jack knows the right path. I think Greg Williams is the right DC.  It will be interesting to watch.  I wish I were watching the Jaguars  playoffs this year, but it isn't to be and this is still our team and how it moves on is fascinating.  Just my opinion.