TKOPA Compares Fred to the All-Time Greats

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 4:52 AM EST Comment 27 comments

The Greatness of Fred Taylor

by Tkopa on Nov 28, 2008 11:12 PM EST

The recent interview that Fred Taylor gave indicating the end of his Jaguar days may be at hand made me wonder, how good is Fred Taylor? In a historical perspective, where does he rank?

Let’s start with the list of all-time yards gained running the football. Fred Taylor is currently 19th. If he gains 1,100 more yards he will be in the top ten. I know Fred has 1,100 yards left in him, so right off the bat; we are looking at one of the top ten best running backs ever to play the game.

But do total yards tell the whole story? Marcus Allen played 14 years, Ernest Byner played 14 years. A back can get into the top 50 simply by staying in the game long enough. So let’s change the measurement. Let’s evaluate a running back based on how productive they are in delivering 1,000+ yard seasons. Let’s say a running back is an impact player if 70% of the seasons they play they rush for over 1,000 yards. Now how does Fred rank?

This gives a different look. Of the top 50 running backs, only 14 have achieved a 70% total in seasons played compared to seasons rushing over 1,000 yards. Jerome Bettis didn’t do it, Marcus Allen didn’t do it, and Tony Dorsett didn’t do it. In this metric, the greatest running back is Barry Sanders. Every one of his 10 seasons he rushed for more than 1,000 yards. LaDainian Tomlinson is also a historic running back with an unbroken record 8 for 8, Curtis Martin and Clinton Portis missed only one season. Jim Brown, Walter Payton and Eddie George missed two seasons. Of these three, Walter Payton was the most durable, running over 1,000 yards 11 seasons out of 13. Jim Brown, however, broke the top ten all-time in only 118 games, seven seasons out of nine over 1,000 yards. He played in the era of 12 and 14 game seasons. (And to be fair, he had one season of 996 yards and the other for 942 yards) In the next tier are Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, and Jamal Lewis. Edgerrin James and Fred Taylor have 7 times over 1,000 for 70% ratings. Eddie George had 7 out of 9 seasons over 1,000. Emmitt Smith has 11 out of 15 seasons over 1,000 yards for a 73% rating and the all time rushing leader. Eric Dickerson has 8 seasons out of 11 over 1,000 yards for a 73% rating and is a top 10 all time running back.

So my personal ranking of the greatest impact running backs are:

1. Jim Brown

2. Barry Sanders

3. Walter Payton

4. Emmitt Smith

5. LaDainian Tomlinson

6. Curtis Martin

7. Eric Dickerson

8. Edgerrin James

9. Clinton Portis

10. Eddie George

11. Fred Taylor

12. OJ Simpson

13. Ricky Waters

14. Jamal Lewis

15. Corry Dillon

OK the obvious question, Fred Taylor better than OJ Simpson? The truth about OJ is that he had 5 seasons out of 11 that were great with one 2,000 yard season. OJ and Fred are about the same in yards gained and in games played. I gave the edge to Fred because he had more seasons over 1,000 yards and will finish with a higher total yards. The truth is Fred Taylor is every bit as good as OJ Simpson was. I saw OJ play, I watch Fred play, I can tell you the breakaway speed and eyes in the back of the head are similar.

So when we watch Fred Taylor play, do we realize we are seeing one of the greats of all time? I don’t know how he can be called “Fragile Freddie” given his production per season and number of seasons at that very high productivity level. I don’t know that we appreciate this level of talent, or that our junior level Offensive Coordinator knows how to use what he has. Part of our problem this year has been talent level in coaching, including you Jack!

Will we ever see another Fred Taylor with the Jacksonville Jaguars when Fred leaves? Consider this, of the top 20 running backs of all time, 16 were taken in the first round, 13 were top 10 picks. Three were second round choices and one was a third round. The greats of all time are at the top of the draft selections. Do you see the Jacksonville Jaguars selecting a running back in the first round in the near future? I don’t. Given that assumption and the history of where great running backs come from, we probably will not see anyone like Fred Taylor in a Jaguar uniform for 15 to 20 years. It will take someone of Tom Coughlin’s drafting ability to spot that level of talent. That eye for talent doesn’t exist in the Jaguar organization today.

Fred, some of us understand and know what you are doing. We have been blessed to see you run. I miss that the most this season. If I could see just one more breakaway run for a touchdown, I will love it. God Bless you Fred, we will miss you.

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No Earl Campbell?

Come on, you don’t have him anywhere on your list? Anywhere?

by b0ng on Nov 29, 2008 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Earl Cambell Stats

Remember the criteria, a running back had to have 70% or more of his seasons break 1,000 yards. Earl Campbell played 8 seasons with 5 of them over 1,000 yards. He didn’t make the 70% cut-off. Earl was a big hard hitting back that hurt people who tried to tackle him The defense always took his knees out. As a result, he didn’t have a long career and I undertand he now needs a walker to assist him in getting around. What happened to Earl was a shame, but there was no denying for the few years he played, he was a beast. .

by Tkopa on Nov 29, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you're going

…to cherry-pick statistics, you might as well pick one that makes Fred look like the greatest running back ever.

Maybe a better idea would be to find a more subjective way of measuring running backs and see how Fred stacks up. I’m sure he’ll do quite well, he’s a hoss. But you make a better case when you don’t use an arbitrary measure of arbitrary statistics.

Good luck on Monday, btw. Our defense sucks donkey balls because our defensive coordinator is a moron. Basically, all Garrard needs to do for your team to win is to locate Jacques Reeves and throw it at him every time he’s on the field. Garrard will end up looking like Dan Marino if he does this.

Also, fwiw, no way in hell is Fred Taylor — as good as he is — better than Earl Campbell.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 29, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let me guess

Since you’re not a Jaguar fan you only see or hear from the Jaguars when Houston plays them or Chris Berman mentions them during his fastest 3 minutes. What subjective method do you suggest we use? Maybe if Houston gets a running back that people have actually heard of than you’d be saying the same stuff about them because you wouldn’t know what to do with yourself.

by SoCalStites on Nov 29, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Err, no.

Believe it or not, I actually have nothing against the Jags whatsoever. And I’ve acknowledged in my previous post that Fred Taylor is a very good running back. I’m really commenting on the completely arbitrary use of statistics to prove a point that can probably be proven using more sound reasoning, and on the contention that Fred Taylor has ever been as good a running back as Earl Campbell.

As far as a more subjective methodology, it depends on how you value running backs. Do you value dependability and consistency over the ability to break big plays? Durability?

Look at it this way: 1,000 yards is a completely arbitrary benchmark for success. It tells you some idea of how good a running back is, but it isn’t the best way to determine a running back’s quality. Is a running back who gains 1,000 yards better than one who gains 999? Not necessarily. Is a running back who averages 2.5 yards/carry but is made of titanium and gets 400 carries per season better than LaDanian Tomlinson?

Why choose 1,000 yard seasons? And why set 70% as the benchmark for an “impact player”? What is an impact player anyway?

What about a very good running back who only gets 12 carries per game because his teams offense is stacked and he is one of four playmakers on his teams offense? He may be just as good as Jim Brown in his prime, but because he has fewer opportunities, he may not get reach 1,000 yards. Ditto for a running back whose team can’t play defense (I can relate with this) and is therefore playing from behind all the time, meaning his offense calls more passing plays. And a running back who plays more games against teams like Cincy, Detroit and (ahem) Houston is going to have better stats than a running back who plays more games against teams like Baltimore, New York and Tennessee.

So a more subjective and therefore more accurate metric would probably be yards per carry (given a certain sample size) adjusted for the quality of defense faced on average. This doesn’t factor in durability — but durability probably isn’t as important in measuring how good a running back is at gaining yards (although it is important in determining a running back’s overall value to his team). FWIW, someone at Football Outsiders has done similar research and compiled a list in this article. It’s a bit dated (2005) but I think it’s a better way to think about how good a running back is than just to pick arbitrary numbers.

FWIW Houston does have a very good back this year — Steve Slaton. He’s the best running back we’ve had, not that is exactly saying much, but he’s a better running back than the greatest running back in the history of running backs that the Texans should’ve taken if they only had a brain.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 30, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are fun to have around.

by Tkopa on Nov 30, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Earl Campbell had one really great year

In 1980 Earl Campbell ran for 1934 yards with a 5.2 yards per attempt average and 128 yards per game average. That is about it. The reason he got those numbers is because he actually held on to the ball that year instead of dropping it on the ground. Earl Campbell came and went and didn’t leave that big of an impression. His coach was more famous than he was. Earl was a good back that took a pounding. His coach killed his career and his quality of life by overusing him.

by Tkopa on Nov 29, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That was a great year

He was also awesome in 1978, 1979, 1981 and 1983. He was lightly used in 1985 but put up pretty good yds/carry numbers as well. He was a hall of fame back that took a pounding, in part due to his coach’s overusing him, and in part due to his running style.

I would disagree that his coach was ever as famous as he was. When he arrived in Houston he had already won the Heisman and was pretty much a celebrity right off the bat.

When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.

by tehGrindCrusher on Nov 30, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Earl Campbell...

The memories… Tree Trunks for legs, 3-4 tear away jerseys a game, and yes a Skoal brother!

by Jaghomer on Dec 1, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In the last two weeks, I've lost a lot of confidence in this team's coaching staff....

Fred Speaking out says volumes, Donnie Henderson hasn’t improved the DB’s one bit and unless Derrick Harvey continues his improvement of the last few weeks, I’ll be calling for Ted Monnachino;s head as well. Andy Heck, our O-line coach is the only Cat I think has done an acceptable job considering all of our losses, even he’s on my hot-seat though.

-Collin

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Monday will show us if this team is collapsing or not...

If it is, then the coaching staff is the real problem, not Shack Harris.

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post on Fred.

I can’t believe though you have the audacity to call Dirk Koetter a “junior level” O.C. So when Fred ran for over 1200 last year was Koetter a “junior level” OC last year. Look I love Fred as much as the next guy but that one line paints you as a lot of Jag fans, fickle.

Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Fred Taylor. Sounds about right.

by JvilleJag2 on Nov 29, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

In all fairness, Dirk was a College level OC up until Del Rio Hired him... He's doing some learning on the Job.

There was a quote where Del Rio had to order him to open up his offensive playbook about six game into the season because he was leaning so heavily on the run. He didn’t want his play-calling to blow the game when we could win with runs alone.

You can do that if the O-line is your top priority and you always draft alot of strong talent. We’ve focused on other areas and as a result we can’t run through defenses like we used to.

As a result of all this we’re seeing the holes in Dirk Koetter’s schemes. He’s done well, but not great by any stretch of the imagination. His play calling definitely isn’t such that it can win games all by itself. He’s not an offensive mastermind on the level of someone like Gruden, and he’s had a terrible time adjusting to the lacklust offensive line play.

He should know by now that the QB isn’t getting more than 3-5 secs, at most (eyes roll) on any pass, and that’s due in part to having no run game established. However, there needs to be more adjustment to account for the lack of protection, and I haven’t seen that. There are not enough wrinkles in his style to confuse any defense.

I think he clearly was fantastic in the NCAA, and I’ve seen glimpses of greatness, especially late last season. Most of those are on deep passes though, not a short game. He need’s to find a way to be more creative and account for the poor line play.

-Collin

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff but...

“…we probably will not see anyone like Fred Taylor in a Jaguar uniform for 15 to 20 years.” Wait…what?! How do you even come up with that prediction? We could being seeing another one blossoming before our very eyes. Not in the style that they play the position, but in terms of production and longevity (built for it), MJD could be that guy for us for years to come. And we know after some recent remarks, he could be a Jaguar for a long time. Which makes me wonder how you can say, “That eye for talent doesn’t exist in the Jaguar organization today.”

All in all, a great post as usual. I had to comment on those remarks though. Well, there is also the issue of Edgerrin James being #8 on your list. I know it’s based on your stats (which were great, just not what I would base greatest backs on), but I could probably think of 20 backs that are better than Edge (assuming he doesn’t get good again).

I may be moving to Jacksonville this summer. Fred Taylor is my favorite football player of all time, and luckily, I’ve seen him at Denver and KC. I’ll buy season tickets with or without him, but I can’t even imagine how devastated I would be if he wasn’t with the Jags at my first home game. (Fred and/or Jack, if you’re reading this…please do the right thing, make a man’s dream come true. Fred, you’ll take 1/2 a mil a year for me won’t you? Than we can get you a nice expensive OL to clear you more holes.)

by Nebraska Jag on Nov 29, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for calling me out on those points

I like the discussion and you make some great points. Here are some counterpoints.

MJD takes hits. That worries me. See the post on Earl Campbell as to why. This season I watched him limp off three times. I don’t know that you will ever see MJD in the top 20 running backs of all time, at least not for rushing. He needs ground yards and longevity for that. Is he a playmaker? yes. Is he one of the great runners of all time? I don’t think I see him there. We won’t see a pure running back like Adrian Peterson is to Minnesota on this team for awhile. Fred is a rarity.

Edgerrin James was a surprise to me as well when I researched the article. So was Clinton Portis and Curtis Martin. One thing is hard to deny, he is the 14th all time leading rusher with seven out of 10 seasons over 1,000 yards. Based on the metric I set up, he stood out. We can change to metric to be yards per carry or touchdowns per carries and come up with a different list. I picked a metric that I felt was meaningful. Other metrics are just as valid. Probably a better one is rushing and receiving yards. MJD would probably jump off the page and you would be right. I don’t know, I didn’t do the research that way.

I do appreciate the compliment and the time you spent compoising an answer. When you do move, welcome to Jacksonville.

by Tkopa on Nov 29, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for giving us something to talk about other than a disappointing season

MJD’s career durabilty is an intereasting discussion on it’s own. I feel like his size will be a benefit in the long run. He won’t take as many hits to the knees because he can get lower than anyone. And it’s not even a good idea to go after his legs, that would be like trying to tackle two moving tree trunks. Tree trunks moving a lot faster than you. But I could be totally wrong about his durability. Can his smaller size endure the hits he’ll take over the years from considerably larger players, or the hits he lays on considerably larger players? Has he ever suffered a major injury in his entire football career? Has he ever had to undergo any surgeries? None that I know of, but I really am asking, I don’t know. Either way, this guy is special, and I think Fred has had a lot to do with his success. Add that to Fred’s list of great things he’s done for the Jags, a list longer than any other player in our history.

by Nebraska Jag on Nov 30, 2008 6:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tkopa dead on

I have to agree with Tkopa. I think MJD is one of the best overall football players in the entire league. He’s fast, he blocks, he catches, he returns kicks, and he is very physical. Tkopa makes a great point in that MJD takes too many hits (as well as dishes them out). Fred and Warrick Dunn have managed long, productive careers by avoiding big hits and taking care of their bodies in the offseasaon. MJD is a budding superstar and IF we can address our O line, he’s going to be really big time. But I’d be surprised if he lasts 7 or 8 years given his level of physicality – it’s just too much pounding.

by OGN on Nov 30, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

7 or 8 years?!

MJD is not just a pounder, he’s elusive as hell, and you don’t think that dude takes care of himself in the offseason. Are you kidding? He’s built like a ton of bricks. Warrick Dunn is 5’8", 180 lbs and he’s lasted this long. I know he avoids hits more, but he’s still a RB getting hit all the time. Barry Sanders played at about 5’8", 203 lbs., even if he did retire early, I’d say he was durable and (obviously) productive. Yes, MJD takes more hits than those guys, but MJD also has and hopefully will continue to have Fred and Greg to take some of the load off. The Jags might have to stop using him as a returner all together to do it, but this guys gonna be around for a while, I’d put money on at least 12 good seasons. RB’s careers end when their legs can’t take it any more. The way I see it, if you have less leg to get hit because your shorter, that’s gonna decrease wear and tear on them. The best backs have been about 205-215 lbs and, for the most part, the shorter the better.

Oh, and I still want to know, has he ever suffered any major injuries or had any surgeries?

I’d also like to add, even if it is somewhat wishful thinking, MJD is taking more years off defender’s careers than they are taking off his.

And anyway, don’t you know, he’s superman!

by Nebraska Jag on Nov 30, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

respectfully disagree

I understand his build and I’m quite sure he takes care of hmself – one look at his physique should tell you that. Wheather he’s delivering the blows or absorbing the blows (or both in his case) his body is taking way more pounding at this point than the other backs mentioned. Time will tell.

by OGN on Dec 1, 2008 7:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got to admit...

A lot of what I’ve said is probably (subconsciously) wishful thinking. I still do think he’ll last longer than 8 seasons because he’s also a very intelligent player, and he’ll make the adjustments. But I think we can all agree that it’s exciting to have a great player, who’s somewhat of a new mold of running back, that we can watch grow and definitely has the potential to have a great career.

by Nebraska Jag on Dec 1, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

8 seasons seems really short

10-12 seems like a more reasonable amount. I mean he’s already got 3 under his belt splitting carries with Fred and he’s never had a major injury.

by SoCalStites on Dec 1, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

average career of an NFL running back is less than 3 years

according to the NFL players union. So 7 or 8 is actually a fairly lengthy career. Increased touches (runs, catches, kick returns) is number one factor (according to NFLPU) in shortening the RB tenure. Sharing time in the backfield actually increases longevity. Fred Taylor has actually stated that he believes that sharing time with MJD has prolonged his career.

I guess the big question is this – IF / when Fred leaves, does MJD inherrit the position full time WITHOUT sharing time.

You’re correct about MJD not suffering major injuries to this point. I hope that remains the case. Risk of injury is a main reason I’m not very happy with Witherspoon’s fumble itus – it’s forcing MJD to do kick returns.

by OGN on Dec 1, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also the eye for talent remark

The Jaguar organization admitted they did not know what they had in MJD when they drafted him. They thought they were drafting a kickoff return guy with some situational ability. This selection seems closer to the “blind pig” answer than shrewd talent evaluation.

by Tkopa on Nov 29, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you're reading that comment correctly.

You don’t use a 2nd rounder on a kick returner. When they said that they were referring to him being the sensatiional back he’d become. They were selecting a RB to be a RB, but even they didn’t think he’d be such an impact player. You can’t just say that when the F.O. scores big, it’s luck, and when they strike out they it is because they can’t evaluate talent.

Be Fair. :)

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to agree with Tkopa

I interpreted the Jaguars as drafting Maurice as a kick returner with other stuff on the side. I don’t believe they selected a “RB to be a RB.” In college he was a tremendous punt returner specifically and I personally witnessed him take a couple back at the Rose Bowl. Ted Ginn was drafted by the Dolphins 9th overall as a returner.

by SoCalStites on Nov 29, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ginn was picked as a WR too, don't kid yourself.

Cam Cameron picked him to be his WR of the future, and he’s really coming into his own…. What a nice pick.

by silencecs on Nov 29, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, called out again

They draftd MJD to be a RB and kick-off return guy. Here is what surprised them, blocking. Small backs have been a part of the game for a long time, but are almost always taken out in passing situations because they can’t block well. They did not expect MJD to be as good at blocking as he is. That gave them the ability to leave him in a lot more plays than they ever expected. They didn’t know they had drafted a 50 plays a game running back. So in that sense, it was luck. In the sense of knowing he was good, it was evaluation homework.

by Tkopa on Nov 29, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs