In an earlier post, I mentioned a computer model I had written to predict football scores. I thought it was time to dust it off and see what it says about the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars.  I actually didn’t invent the model, but can’t remember the source, so if you invented it, my apologies for not acknowledging you.

The model is simple.  It is based on how efficient a team offense is at scoring, verses how stingy the opposing defense is.  Scoring efficiency is measured by yards per point.  If a team generates 200 yards of offense and scores 20 points, they score, on average, one point for every 10 yards of offense. If the same team only scores 10 points, then they require 20 yards of offense to score the same single point. This makes a certain sense. A team that moves 70 yards and scores a touchdown is more efficient at scoring than a team that marches 50 yards, stalls and kicks a field goal.

Once you know the team scoring efficiency, then you compare it to the opponents defensive yards allowed.  If your team scores one point every 15 yards and the opposition allows 300 yards per game, then you reasonably expect to generate 20 points in that game.

In 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a scoring efficiency of 13.91 yards per point.  This was the 8th most efficient offense.  Tom Brady and Randy Moss had an efficiency of 11.17.  If both teams played the Detroit Lions, who allowed an average of 377 yards, The Jaguars would put up 27 points, while the Patriots would put up 34 points.  Three yards of scoring efficiency is a lot.

The 2007 Jaguars defense allowed an average of 313 yards of offense every game and ranked the 12th stingiest defense.  The Patriots allowed 288 per game.  So if the Jaguars played the Patriots, the score would be Patriots 28, Jaguars 21.  The Titans allowed 291 yards per game and the Colts allowed 280 yards per game.  The Titans weren’t efficient at scoring, the Colts were.

When the model was played out over the 2007 season, the Jaguars were predicted to have an 11-4-1 record with Tampa Bay a tie.  The model was close to the actual 11-5 finish.  So what does the model say about the 2008 Jaguars?

First, based on the 8 games played, if the Jaguars returned in 2008 with the same scoring efficiency (13.91) and defense (313 per game) as 2007, they would post a 9-7 season record.  The first revealing fact is that the opponents this season are much better than last season.  The Jaguars needed to be on top of their game to navigate this year into the playoffs.

Second, the scoring efficiency has dropped from 13.91 yds/pt to 15.63.  Against an average team, that about 3 points a game. 

Third, the defense has dropped from allowing 313 yards a game to 335 yards per game.  Doesn’t sound like much, but it is about 2 points per game allowed.  The model says these numbers would have delivered a 7-9 record last year.  The 2008 Jaguars are closer to the Cincinnati Bengals (17 yds/pt, 331 yds allowed) than we care to admit.

Bottom line, the model says the Jaguars could bottom out at 4-12.  The Detroit game is a lock, then close games against the Colts and Texans and a slight chance against the Vikings.  The Bears game is a blow out.

For the Jaguars to win 10 games this year means a lock down defense allowing a league leading 240 yards per game.   The other way is to develop a Brady-like offense of 11.17 yards per point.  A return of the 2007 Jaguars can still deliver an 8-8 season.

In the earlier post I mentioned a reason to smile.  I still believe that.  The improvements in offense and defense will come and the Jaguars will move up again.  This was simply a very tough year with major blows delivered early.