What the model says
In an earlier post, I mentioned a computer model I had written to predict football scores. I thought it was time to dust it off and see what it says about the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars. I actually didn’t invent the model, but can’t remember the source, so if you invented it, my apologies for not acknowledging you.
The model is simple. It is based on how efficient a team offense is at scoring, verses how stingy the opposing defense is. Scoring efficiency is measured by yards per point. If a team generates 200 yards of offense and scores 20 points, they score, on average, one point for every 10 yards of offense. If the same team only scores 10 points, then they require 20 yards of offense to score the same single point. This makes a certain sense. A team that moves 70 yards and scores a touchdown is more efficient at scoring than a team that marches 50 yards, stalls and kicks a field goal.
Once you know the team scoring efficiency, then you compare it to the opponents defensive yards allowed. If your team scores one point every 15 yards and the opposition allows 300 yards per game, then you reasonably expect to generate 20 points in that game.
In 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a scoring efficiency of 13.91 yards per point. This was the 8th most efficient offense. Tom Brady and Randy Moss had an efficiency of 11.17. If both teams played the Detroit Lions, who allowed an average of 377 yards, The Jaguars would put up 27 points, while the Patriots would put up 34 points. Three yards of scoring efficiency is a lot.
The 2007 Jaguars defense allowed an average of 313 yards of offense every game and ranked the 12th stingiest defense. The Patriots allowed 288 per game. So if the Jaguars played the Patriots, the score would be Patriots 28, Jaguars 21. The Titans allowed 291 yards per game and the Colts allowed 280 yards per game. The Titans weren’t efficient at scoring, the Colts were.
When the model was played out over the 2007 season, the Jaguars were predicted to have an 11-4-1 record with Tampa Bay a tie. The model was close to the actual 11-5 finish. So what does the model say about the 2008 Jaguars?
First, based on the 8 games played, if the Jaguars returned in 2008 with the same scoring efficiency (13.91) and defense (313 per game) as 2007, they would post a 9-7 season record. The first revealing fact is that the opponents this season are much better than last season. The Jaguars needed to be on top of their game to navigate this year into the playoffs.
Second, the scoring efficiency has dropped from 13.91 yds/pt to 15.63. Against an average team, that about 3 points a game.
Third, the defense has dropped from allowing 313 yards a game to 335 yards per game. Doesn’t sound like much, but it is about 2 points per game allowed. The model says these numbers would have delivered a 7-9 record last year. The 2008 Jaguars are closer to the Cincinnati Bengals (17 yds/pt, 331 yds allowed) than we care to admit.
Bottom line, the model says the Jaguars could bottom out at 4-12. The Detroit game is a lock, then close games against the Colts and Texans and a slight chance against the Vikings. The Bears game is a blow out.
For the Jaguars to win 10 games this year means a lock down defense allowing a league leading 240 yards per game. The other way is to develop a Brady-like offense of 11.17 yards per point. A return of the 2007 Jaguars can still deliver an 8-8 season.
In the earlier post I mentioned a reason to smile. I still believe that. The improvements in offense and defense will come and the Jaguars will move up again. This was simply a very tough year with major blows delivered early.
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17 comments
Comments
Couple questions
Chicago game was a blowout in favour of which team? Also, did you not mention the Titans game fot a reason?
by SamJags on Nov 3, 2008 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The model says the Chicago game will be a blow out
Do you mean this years Titans game? There is nothing I am trying to hide. If you ask, I will answer.
by Tkopa on Nov 3, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, the Jags-Bears
Also, what about the upcoming home game against the Titans?
by SamJags on Nov 3, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The model says..
Ttians by 8 over Jags
Bears by 7
Packers by 5
Ravens by 6
Colts by 1
Houston by 1
Vikings by 3
Jags over Detroit by 5
by Tkopa on Nov 3, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My apology about one line
The Jaguars are not close to the Bengals. The Bengals will give up if losing, the Jags never have. They are closer in talent level but not in heart and character.
by Tkopa on Nov 3, 2008 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
GREAT JOB
Great job in explaining. An excellent post. I love this kinda junk (I have a Masters in Math, might explain it). There is another good site with super statistical analysis on much of the nfl… check it out if you like..
http://www.advancednflstats.com/
many great articles can be found in the right side column. beware, some require a high level of mathematical knowledge to make much sense.
by JirafaBo on Nov 4, 2008 1:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
I’m glad you understood it. It helps me understand Jack Del Rio. A defense giving up 335 yards verses 300 yards per game is basically one or two third down stops. It might be two missed tackles. It might be one missed assignment. It might be the offense making one more third down that keeps the oher team off the field. It is that small of a difference that turns games. This is why Bob Sanders can change the make-up of the Colts defense. he makes the key play.
by Tkopa on Nov 4, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t care about this. Its a model that means nothing in life. We could go 3 and 13 or 13 and 3. It’s flat out stupid. Thats what I think. Thanks for the effort tho.
by harveyismyboy on Nov 4, 2008 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we can go 13 and 3
Last I checked we already lost 5
by SoCalStites on Nov 4, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Harvey
Do you ever say anything actually worth reading? Every time there is a ridiculously opinionated comment or outright rude comment, I look down and it’s always you.
by JirafaBo on Nov 5, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wear my heart on my sleeve A Hole
by harveyismyboy on Nov 6, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im with you Harvey!
A freaking model? You have to be kidding me. Maybe if robots played football, then a computer model might be a good tool. The only models that I’m interested in seeing are the ones in bikinis and lingere! A football computer model, what an “F-ing” joke. Thats like saying “in my widdle Madden game last night, the Jaguars computer team beat the Lions computer team, therefore, it should happen in real life!” Are you (freakin) kidding me??? <—- (in a John “Chuckie” Gruden type voice)
by jagsfanbrunell on Nov 6, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think JirafaBo's point is to be respectful
Tkopa obviously put a lot of time and effort into this and some people enjoy it. It’s rude to just look at and say it’s garbage. I find this stuff interesting, and yes, it all comes down to playing real life on the field, but probabilities and stuff get my gears turning.
by SoCalStites on Nov 6, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They don't understand
Statistical models can either speak to you and tell you the truth, or sound like alien speak. Also the message isn’t positive. The thought of the Jaguars going 4-12 or 6-10 isn’t a pleasant thought for anyone. I understand their outburst. Unfortunately facts are facts, the Jaguars are playing barely above Cincy or Miami right now.
There is a lot of denial that must be worked through.
by Tkopa on Nov 6, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Though statistics may sometimes seem stupid...
there is a vital statistic up on the scoreboard. Yeah, it’s an important one.
To be master of oneself and never waver in one's resolve.
- Maximus Desimus Meridius
by jagsrock on Nov 4, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs


















