[Note by River City Rage, 12/06/08 12:23 PM EST ] OGN wrote this fantastic fanpost that started a pretty good conversation. I'm moving it to the front page so everyone can see it! - Chris
With the 2008 season all but over, let's get past the "season that might have been" and concentrate on the future. In that spirit, I wish to examine our 2008 first round draft pick - Derrick Harvey. This analysis will look at the price paid, the production to date, and how his production compares with other D line rookies. Finally, we put the question to the reader - Do you think this was a good deal for the Jags? Note - my source for stats is NFL.com.
Draft Day Trade - Jags trade with the Ravens to move up and take Harvey with the 8th overall pick. The Ravens receive 1st round pick (#26), two 3rd round picks (#71 & #89) and a 4th round pick (#125).
How did that work out for the Ravens? The Ravens trade up to pick #18 and get Joe Flacco - QB Delware . They traded picks #26 and #89 acquired from the Jags. With pick # 71 from the Jags, Baltimore picks Tavares Gordon - ILB from Miami. Finally, the Ravens trade pick #125 with Oakland and get CB Fabian Washington.
Flacco and Washington are both starters. Washington has to date, posted 18 tackles + 3 assists. Gordon played in 4 games before being placed on IR and has year to date stats of 3 tackles & 2 assists. Flacco is having a good rookie year so far.
Overall, that trade has worked out very well for the Ravens and they're in the middle of the playoff hunt. Did this deal put them over the top?
Harvey Stats - Harvey has played in 12 games this year and has to date 9 tackles, 2 assits, 1.5 sacks, 2 passes defensed, and 1 Int.
How does that compare to other D line Rookies? Harvey was the 5th D linemen taken in the draft. Chris Long (#2) DE from UVA, Glen Dorsey (#5) DT from LSU, Vernon Gholston (#6) DE from Ohio State, and Sedrick Ellis (#7) DT from USC were taken ahead of Harvey. Gholston was moved to LB when he arrived at the Jets so I will through out his stats for this comparison.
Of the top 4 picks, Harvey finishes last at #15 with his year to date stats. Long ranks #1, Dorsey is #2, and Eliis is tied for #7. Of 37 rookie D linemen in the NFL, 7 are not active. Of the remaining 30 active rookie D linemen - Harvey ranks #15; middle of the pack. Groves ranks just behind him at #16.
Long's stats - 28 tackles, 7 assists, 4 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.
There's the comparison by the numbers. Now let's go a little deeper and look at Harvey's production vs the Texans on Monday night. Harvey was matched against another rookie - LT Duane Brown from Va Tech and not a veteran LT. How did Harvey do? He was shut out statistically for the entire game. He did manage a QB pressure that forced a bad pass on 3rd down.
Comparisons have been made to Mario Williams rookie year so let's take a look at that. Williams finished 2006 4th out of 39 active D line rookies with 35 tackles, 12 assists, 4.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. Projecting Harvey the rest of the season at current pace, Harvey's year end stats would be 12 tackles, 3 assist, 2 sacks, 3 passes defensed, and 1 int.
Well, there you have it. There are the facts. I leave it to the reader to judge his effort. Now for the $33 million question - Was he worth the price we paid?
How do think Harvey will do in the future?
He's a Bust (13 votes)
He will improve, but never be a consistent impact player (53 votes)
Future star - he just needs more time to develop (54 votes)
Don't know - could go either way (56 votes)
176 total votes