Derrick Harvey - Is He Worth the Price?
[Note by River City Rage, 12/06/08 12:23 PM EST ] OGN wrote this fantastic fanpost that started a pretty good conversation. I'm moving it to the front page so everyone can see it! - Chris
With the 2008 season all but over, let's get past the "season that might have been" and concentrate on the future. In that spirit, I wish to examine our 2008 first round draft pick - Derrick Harvey. This analysis will look at the price paid, the production to date, and how his production compares with other D line rookies. Finally, we put the question to the reader - Do you think this was a good deal for the Jags? Note - my source for stats is NFL.com.
Draft Day Trade - Jags trade with the Ravens to move up and take Harvey with the 8th overall pick. The Ravens receive 1st round pick (#26), two 3rd round picks (#71 & #89) and a 4th round pick (#125).
How did that work out for the Ravens? The Ravens trade up to pick #18 and get Joe Flacco - QB Delware . They traded picks #26 and #89 acquired from the Jags. With pick # 71 from the Jags, Baltimore picks Tavares Gordon - ILB from Miami. Finally, the Ravens trade pick #125 with Oakland and get CB Fabian Washington.
Flacco and Washington are both starters. Washington has to date, posted 18 tackles + 3 assists. Gordon played in 4 games before being placed on IR and has year to date stats of 3 tackles & 2 assists. Flacco is having a good rookie year so far.
Overall, that trade has worked out very well for the Ravens and they're in the middle of the playoff hunt. Did this deal put them over the top?
Harvey Stats - Harvey has played in 12 games this year and has to date 9 tackles, 2 assits, 1.5 sacks, 2 passes defensed, and 1 Int.
How does that compare to other D line Rookies? Harvey was the 5th D linemen taken in the draft. Chris Long (#2) DE from UVA, Glen Dorsey (#5) DT from LSU, Vernon Gholston (#6) DE from Ohio State, and Sedrick Ellis (#7) DT from USC were taken ahead of Harvey. Gholston was moved to LB when he arrived at the Jets so I will through out his stats for this comparison.
Of the top 4 picks, Harvey finishes last at #15 with his year to date stats. Long ranks #1, Dorsey is #2, and Eliis is tied for #7. Of 37 rookie D linemen in the NFL, 7 are not active. Of the remaining 30 active rookie D linemen - Harvey ranks #15; middle of the pack. Groves ranks just behind him at #16.
Long's stats - 28 tackles, 7 assists, 4 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.
There's the comparison by the numbers. Now let's go a little deeper and look at Harvey's production vs the Texans on Monday night. Harvey was matched against another rookie - LT Duane Brown from Va Tech and not a veteran LT. How did Harvey do? He was shut out statistically for the entire game. He did manage a QB pressure that forced a bad pass on 3rd down.
Comparisons have been made to Mario Williams rookie year so let's take a look at that. Williams finished 2006 4th out of 39 active D line rookies with 35 tackles, 12 assists, 4.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. Projecting Harvey the rest of the season at current pace, Harvey's year end stats would be 12 tackles, 3 assist, 2 sacks, 3 passes defensed, and 1 int.
Well, there you have it. There are the facts. I leave it to the reader to judge his effort. Now for the $33 million question - Was he worth the price we paid?
0 recs |
49 comments
|
Comments
He'll get there
He won’t be Mario, but he’ll be an impact player. I would have been REALLY pissed if I were a Jags fan and my team gave up SO much to trade up for him – then the guy holds out and misses all that time. Ugh, I would have been livid, as I’m sure you guys were.
www.HoustonDiehards.com
by HoustonDiehards on Dec 3, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The stats you didn't mention
Let’s assume for moment the Jaguar organization hadn’t traded and stayed where they were. They wanted a DE so who would they have drafted? Probably Lawerence Jackson (16 solo tackles two sacks). Maybe Phillip Merling (17 solo tackles, 1 sack),
Derrick Harvey $17.7 Million guaranteed
Lawrence Jackson $6.1 Million Guaranteed
Phillip Merling est $5 million guaranteed.
So who out-drafted who? Face this fact, among experienced NFL people, The Jaguars are not considered very good at talent or contract negotiation people .
by Tkopa on Dec 3, 2008 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is the best stat
This comment more than any other makes me really doubt the decision made. We wont know for sure until a couple years pass to know if triple the money is worth it, but it’s clear that none of these 3 players could’ve made a huge difference and saved the defense.
by SoCalStites on Dec 3, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are right
Depending on a rookie to save a season is hopeless desperation. A rookie should never have to endure that pressure. Matt Ryan is one of the few I ever saw live up to it.
Derrick Harvey save our season? Derrick Harvey the missing piece? If that was our thinking, how misguided.
by Tkopa on Dec 3, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny how so many people
relate Harvey to Mario. Truth be told Harvey reminds me more of Gaines Adams and I think he will be that good eventually. Though none of our DE’s are going to get stats without some coverage sacks, some big leads, opposing QB’s that hold on to the ball too long, and most importantly some help from the DT’s.
Also when comparing to other DE’s in “Harvey/Groves’” draft. No one seems to stand out to me other than Chris Long and the first 2 DT’s.
Lawrence Jackson has been pumped up a little by Vic because of his stats early, but those were gimmie sacks against JT O crud I’m gonna get sacked again QB with SF. He looks very unspectacular to me.
Merling looks pretty good, but he’s never going to be a sack artist. His lack of speed would probably never get him a sack against a quick releasing P Manning. Also remember guys, Harvey is still really young and his muscles have a lot of maturing to do.
by Ewdtrey on Dec 4, 2008 12:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The comparison isn't about his build or play
It’s just that Mario was the perfect example of a DE who struggled his first year and developed into an amazing player. Everyone hopes that Harvey will do that too. I agree with you though, he is a lot more like Gaines Adams
by SoCalStites on Dec 4, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of few
who pay attention to De’s progression. Thank You Ewdtrey
by harveyismyboy on Dec 4, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Jags were schooled
in the draft. They just gave up too much. Groves, I’ll accept his play… from what I have seen, he is a disruption to the Offenses on the field. Of course the penalties haven’t been good, but his aggressive attitude, I am willing to overlook the jumping off-sides.
Jackson and Merling… man I remember that draft day line-up. Hey, hindsight makes a pretty easy call here… but where was the voice of reason on draft day? What line of BS did they give Mr. Weaver? The pay days for these 3 players are just too dramatically different per performance and I bet will be for the next few years. The Jags reached and got burned.
The finger just goes back to the front office. Either inexperience or incompetence, but I would make a move.
by Jaghomer on Dec 4, 2008 8:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
And...
What happened to Shaun Rodgers (nee Detroit Lions) now nose tackle for Cleveland in free agency? Was all the free agency acquires forthe Jags over by this time, did he want too much, or could he not transition to a 4-3 defense? I am just curious when he came to leave Detroit, it seems Cleveland was the only taker.
by Jaghomer on Dec 4, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not all on Harvey
I’m not trying to give Harvey any excuses, but there is no one on the team with more than 2 sacks. He can’t be expected to generate a pass rush all on his own. And I think we can all agree that our defense is not consistently getting any pressure on any QB. An effective pass rush needs a push from every player who’s going after the QB. When a line can get that push, then someone should be able to get around their block and make a play. If no one is getting any push, you can’t expect numbers from anyone. If Harvey was on a team like the Steelers, he would probably look a lot better. It’s the same thing that our secondary is going through. They look terrible because of the lack of pass rush.
That said, I’m pretty happy with Groves so far. I’m not sure about this since I don’t get to see all the games, but he hasn’t played as much as Harvey, right? Considering that (assuming I’m right) and his size, and again, the way the rest of the team has played, he’s been pretty good.
by Nebraska Jag on Dec 4, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
schooled by the Ravens
To me the issue isn’t if he was worth the 8th pick, its the extra picks they gave up to get him and then he had all the leverage in contract negotiations. With #26,71,89,125 were 4 potential players that could have helped this year and cost less than Harvey and been in on time to learn their craft. Groves was drafted by the wrong team and is better suited to be a 3-4 linebacker.
by jagsrealist on Dec 4, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like Jagrealist
He is very realistic in this Jaguar thinking. Hey, now I get it :)
by Tkopa on Dec 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know looking back on this year
I think the team will benefit from this season. An under performing Mike Peterson struck a nerve at the wrong time which allowed JDR to change the line up without too much criticism.
Derrick Harvey has a slow start after missing training camp. What better year for that to happen than in a losing year. If I was him I would go into next years training camp knowing the importance of camp. It would make me want to work hard.
We are now the under dogs again. That’s food for the offseason. That gives the FO the cajones to get younger. Though I still think Fred Taylor should come back especially if he gets his contract restructured. But that D line is old and that O line is getting old and more injury prone.
That brings me to another point. People including Vic keep saying that this team had no depth at the offensive line. I don’t believe that. They look decently good right now, to me. I think the issue was continuity. I also believe that the back ups aren’t suppose to be as good as the starters or they would be the starters. So we should expect some sort of fall off. But to me they still aren’t as bad as some of the lines through out the league. lol Not to mention we’ve seen some pretty mean D’s this season: Viks, the Titans twice, Pitt etc…
by Ewdtrey on Dec 4, 2008 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless those 4 players were o-lineman this team would still at best be looking at 6-6
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by FSBlueApocalypse on Dec 5, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Tkopa
This move is another in the long line of childish behavior exhibited by the Jags’ on draft day. I can remember thinking “WHAT!!!” when Mat Jones was drafted, when Reggie Williams was drafted, RJ Soward, Marcedes Lewis, Byron Leftwich and now Harvey. Reggie Nelson should be thrown in that group too. Who are these guys? I’m not really sure, but I know what they’re not, and that’s good NFL players.
Unfortunately, the truth only comes out game-by-game.
by arthardie on Dec 5, 2008 9:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow you're an incredible talent evaluator
That’s insane that you were only outraged when the Jaguars made a draft pick that didn’t turn into a great player. Have you considered applying within the Jaguar organization?
by SoCalStites on Dec 5, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guilty of that
I am trying to not fall into the blame game but to look forward. With this season and this level of performance, I have been guilty of looking for someone to choke.
by Tkopa on Dec 5, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
Socal is right, why are you not in the Jags organization if you are just so so so smart with evaluations?
by harveyismyboy on Dec 5, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was watching PTI today
and Derrick Harvey’s picture was right behind Mike Wilbon’s head. Random I know, but I felt like sharing.
by SoCalStites on Dec 5, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guess we know who Wilbon's new boy is ;)
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by FSBlueApocalypse on Dec 5, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We don't need to be sarcastic.
But seriously. If you want to know why we are last in the AFC South, compare our drafts with our rivals. Is that not a legitimate parameter for analysis?
Unfortunately, the truth only comes out game-by-game.
by arthardie on Dec 5, 2008 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ok why were the Jaguars so good last year?
Everyone keeps making it sound like this organization is just as bad as the Lions and we just make stupid move after stupid move and never get anywhere. This franchise has been very successful since joining the league and just last year the team was very very good. The drafts had to have accomplished something right?
by SoCalStites on Dec 5, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point.
No one can argue that Porter and Florence have been disasters, but I personally have been pleased with our drafts…. Free Agency has been Shack’s achilles heel
by silencecs on Dec 5, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To add to Collin's point
Yeah Leftwich and Reggie Williams are total busts. But almost every other player we’ve drafted in the first 3-4 rounds has been solid contributor to a great player. Can’t ask for much more.
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by FSBlueApocalypse on Dec 5, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you forgot a few things...
A majority of Harvey’s “rich” contract is incentive laden and based on his stats he hasn’t received many of them lol. so if he does good then yea he deserves that payday! but if he does poorly he will get paid as such… also compared to the 7 picks above him all getting above 50 mil. I’m surprised we were able to get him to settle at a max. of 33 mil. (thats including incentives) and only 17 mil. guaranteed.
also a knock on him on draft day many people forget about is that he was going to have to grow into his body since he doesn’t fully realize his size and can still add on about 10-20 lbs. of muscle to help his bull rush and burst off the edge. and he missed all of TC and the preseason and practices that are usually key for a rookies’ development and he has proven to be a fast learner and picked up our system. so this offseason and the span until next season he will have some 1v1 time with Monachino, some time in the weight room, and just time learning technique and skill.
also it takes a year or so for most DE’s to develop and looking at all the other DE’s out of this draft he has similar #’s without the advantage of TC and preseason/practices. his best football is ahead of him and next season he will be a force to be reckoned with IMO!
also Groves needs to put on some weight but not let it affect his speed since I can envision him as a Dwight Freeney type RDE and Harvey playing lights out LDE! and getting another DT with Big John to collapse the middle can only help IMO!
most people just see his contract #‘s and bash him as a bust before finishing a full season (remember last year when Nelson looked like a greenhorn each game being out of position every other play lol) but in reality its only when he puts up sacks and stats that he will get the majority of that money… I must give credit to out finance people at the FO since they found a way to protect our cap if Harvey wasn’t the savior in his 1st year like he was supposed to be! he will be a good player for years to come IMO!
by Firesky on Dec 5, 2008 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Good stuff. I didn’t know his contract was incentive based (I don’t care to pay too much attention to that stuff). Your right then, we got a pretty good deal (in terms of money, not picks traded). I guess the Jags have learned something from their first round busts. I hope he earns all his money next year!
And I like your optimism. Too many people on this site are too quick to throw Harvey under the bus. He needs work, and he missed it at the beginning of the season. He really hasn’t been that bad considering no else has been that good, and the pass rush is a group effort, like I said in my post above. He’ll be a good player, hopefully a great player. It does suck we gave up so many picks for him, picks we really could have used, but we can’t change the past by bitching about it, we can only learn from it and make the best of what we got.
by Nebraska Jag on Dec 5, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With a future without a salary cap (which is a possibility) the cap isn't a concern.
Personally, I’d be more comfortable with anyone other than Ted Monachino coaching the guy… I know he coached Terrell Suggs, so don’t even go there with me. What I do know is that this is his first year as our D-line coach and he hasn’t gotten any production out of our front 4. That’s a fact. He got promoted from asst D-line Coach after Mike Smith swiped Ray Hamilton and got him to be his d-line coach.
Bring back Ray Hamilton. We had 29.5 sacks the last year by the d-line was a major part of being 4th against the run. FIRE TED MONACHINO… I’m going to do a full story on this soon enough. The guy hasn’t got “It” and I don’t want him coaching up Harvey anymore. I want someone new. When your first year on the job goes as abhorrently as Ted’s has (with many of the same players) it is time to part ways. Plain and simple.
-Collin
by silencecs on Dec 6, 2008 5:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OGN, great post brother... this has generated a ton of debate and I loved your analysis overall.
Even though I don’t agree with your findings, I enjoyed reading the comparisons between Harvey and other DE’s from the draft.
by silencecs on Dec 6, 2008 5:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I tried to present only facts with this piece. I was very interested in the opinion of others on this issue. I do think he’ll improve and I think our front office could do a better job with our draft picks / trades. I found it very interesting that Baltimore got 2 starters out of the Jags deal. They really hit the jackpot with that deal.
by OGN on Dec 6, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you are including Flacco that is a given
by harveyismyboy on Dec 7, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You have to include him
since it was the Jags picks that the Ravens used. Out of4 draft picks acquired from the Jags – the Ravens found 3 players that made the team with two of them being starters – that’s ringing the bell big time.
by OGN on Dec 7, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not a bust cause of his contract
I don’t look at his contract to say he’s a bust. I look at the draft picks that were traded away to get him. Its pretty obvious we could have used those picks to upgrade this roster. Harvey may have fallen to 26 and we get him anyway or Jags go after best available at 26. Harvey was a reach at #8.
by jagsrealist on Dec 6, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
At the time when the pick was made
The organization and even the fans thought we were just a piece or two away from the super bowl. No one could’ve expected the defense would be this bad and the injuries to the offensive line would make the offense that bad. When the draft came no one was thinking about rebuilding the team with tons of draft choices.
by SoCalStites on Dec 6, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
Nice job OGN. Gotta love a guy that backs an opinion with stats. Not sure why the Jags are so bad in the 1st round and then do such a GREAT job in later rounds. Some of our 2nd round picks have been amazing. I’ve been one of those fans that have thrown Harvey “under the bus.” But I have to agree with many of you—certainly can’t blame everything on Harvey..and it takes more than one season to be a good DE. That said, I still say he’ll be a bust. Rookies that hold out make me nervous. Harvey certainly has talent—but a rookie hold out speaks volumes about his character. Garrard takes less money so he can get into camp and a rookie holds out. Just can’t get past it. Especially after giving up so much to get him. But we’ll have a healthy OL next year and get back to our power game. Our year over year improvement will be dramatic! Hopefully Harvey will do something he didn’t do this year. EARN his starting spot by working his tail off in training camp. In any case, he’ll have a very hard time providing enough value to warrant his cost (in draft picks). I hope I’m posting next year about how wrong I was about him because I bleed teal. After this disappointing season, those players that truly care will come back with a vengeance. Training camp will be intense, and you’ll know right away who’s going to step up. Can’t wait.
by JAGS1995 on Dec 6, 2008 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lets hope he doesn't turn out like Jimmy Kennedy (12th overall selection).
by silencecs on Dec 6, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
didn't mean to post the above so soon, my bad, accidently hit post
He’s got room to add bulk, and he’s got to develop that “KILLER INSTINCT”. He definitely needs to stop improve at stopping the run. That Texan Game where he busted inside the line and had a one-on-one moment with Slaton, but whiffed, is what I’m talking about. He didn’t attack Slaton there, he waited and got schooled. You have to always be thinking KILL KILL KILL.
I did see some progression in that game alone though. There was a play he was unblocked at the line and he slid horizontally along the line and got himself out of position on the Run play. what he should’ve done is attack the handoff as soon as he realized he was unblocked.
The same thing happened again later in the game and as soon as he realized he was unblocked, he attacked the handoff and got a big tackle for loss. The Killer instinct I refer to can be taught, but the player has to be willing to learn. I think Derrick still has a lot of improving to do. Also, keep in mind when comparing his contract that his is only a 5 year deal, not six like some other top 10 players, so take that into account as well when you look at the contract’s value.
-Collin (desperately trying to be objective on the day of the SEC championship… Go Gators!)
by silencecs on Dec 6, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did I miss that?
I don’t remember Harvey get any tackles in that game, much less a big tackle for a loss. I’m not sure about that though, maybe I’m wrong.
by Nebraska Jag on Dec 6, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might've been the week before, but I'm pretty sure I'm right.
There was a huge tackle for loss he made, I’m sure of that.
by silencecs on Dec 6, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure about this kill stuff
Truth be told, with as much laundry there is on the field for roughing people up I’d rather the guy be smart.
To be totally honest, I’m not sure its the killer instinct he’s missing. I think it’s intincts in general. He’s thinking too much because it’s not all automatic yet. That takes time though. He’s not going for the kill because he’s thinking I can’t lose containment, or what if it’s a fake, or what if it’s a boot leg/PA, etc… When he can pin his ears back, the sacks will come in bunches.
by Ewdtrey on Dec 7, 2008 3:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but you have to have a lead for your d-line to pin their ears back...
I’m a fan of the old school… I loved the way the OLD raiders used to play… If you ain’t cheatin you ain’t tryin… Physicality is what football is about. It’s not “the QB must go down, and the QB must go down softly”.
I want him to be so passionate about hitting someone on the field (although I’m not one who cheers at injury, just big hits), that he’s like a heat seeking missile. I will agree with you that that isn’t the mentality the NFL currently endorses, and probably is from a bygone era, but that’s how I like my football and my players.
Line up in a 2 TE set in the wishbone with MJD, G Jones and F Taylor and run it every single down… that’s my kinda game. In fact, all I want is to punish the other team… on offense and defense, that’s why I love Hines ward… the cat is ridiculous when it comes to hitting someone.
Derrick needs to be more physical… I see him constantly near the pile, but not jumping into it, it’s almost as if he’s satisfied to let someone else make the tackle, and that’s discouraging.
by silencecs on Dec 7, 2008 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Play Time
What also has to be considered is the amount of time Harvey gets compared to say a Chris Long. Right now Harvey is in rotation with 3 other players, one of which happened to have a #1 round draft grade on him. Point being they want to evaluate Groves as much as they want to see Harvey, all while throwing Hayward, Spicer, and possibly Mincey. bruce into the picture. Is Chris Long given the opportunity to make more plays than Harvey? I don’t know the answer for sure but I’ll bet Harvey gets half the amount of snaps that Long gets.
by floridaboiterk on Dec 7, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good point boiterk
Harvey had his best game today. I think he’s reading your posts OGN.
by harveyismyboy on Dec 7, 2008 5:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe - something needs to light the fire under him.
He did do better today against the Bears. His stats as of 5:50PM was only one tackle, but he definately got some QB pressures. Maybe I can piss him off some more and he really comes to life. I’m a Jag fan first and no one would be happier than I :-)
by OGN on Dec 7, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 
















