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Lito's numbers lie... He's overrated and why he WON'T be a Jag

[EDITORS NOTE]: silencecs wrote a nice piece on why Lito Sheppard might be overrated.  I know that the trade talks have suddenly quieted, but it's good writing.  If anyone ever wants to write their own article, there's a 99% chance I'll put it on the front page!  Thanks Sliencecs for doing this![/NOTE]

First off, all of this really has no bearing on what really happens with this trade non-sense, but I've done some research and have come to the conslusion the Lito is overrated. I, like many of you, was excited by his bag flashy name... LITO... it just souds cool. However, after spending a few hours looking over information, my opinion has changed.

This post is filled with quotes I've scoured from articles, all but one are from football outsiders and if you don't understand their terminology, go check it out on their site.

We all know the world revolves around money; this especially holds true in the NFL where the cap is king, so let's start there. I found the following excerpt very revealing from a financial standpoint.

"NFL Network and ESPNews both report that the Eagles have given CB Lito Sheppard permission to seek a trade.
A shocker. Sheppard hasn't completed a 16-game season since 2003, but is only 26 and the Birds' best cover corner when healthy. Philadelphia would take a $2.9 million cap hit to move him. The Eagles are not deep at cornerback, so it's unclear how they'd atone for losing the two-time All Pro. Feb. 18 - 5:58 pm et"

Well, since Feb. 18th they've signed A. Samuel to a huge contract, so they can afford to lose him if the price is right. However, the fact that they will lose the 2.9 million they've already payed him as a bonus, which counts toward this season, means they will be looking for an especially good deal. Given that the Jags only offered the dolphins (reportedly) a fourth round pick for Jason Taylor, it is hard to see them biting big on an injury prone CB who doesn't fill a specific vacancy. Plus, I'm starting to think that his agent saw all the trades we made on draft day and thought maybe we were trade happy enough to swing a deal. I have enough faith in Shack Harris to know he's wiser than that. I really can't say enough about Harris, besides his stance to keep Leftwich (which I supported at the time), he's been spot on along with Gene Smith. We Jaguar fans are really lucky to have the quality front office and scouting we do... One of the larger sized scouting departments in the league. Compare us to Cincinatti (one of the smallest scouting departments in the NFL) and look whose done better aquiring talent between those two teams alone. But I digress...

Now... Why Lito is overrated.

"the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles recorded 13.15% fewer tackles than you would expect from their team defensive plays total (885 tackles on 1019 defensive plays). Troy Vincent and Lito Sheppard are both penalized by adding 13.15% to their respective tackle totals."

Why would this happen you ask? An offensive player running out of bounds is the main culprit. What's so bad about that you ask? It shows a lack of physiciality number one, it allows the offensive player to dictate tempo when he wants to stop the clock, and it decreases the possibility of a fumble or a jarring hit (WR's remember those). That's not Jaguar football.

-NEXT

"Lito Sheppard has now gone from terrible to amazing to terrible in the three years we’ve been charting, but at least this backs up the comments in the Game Charters Speak article that he has not been as good this year."

Doesn't sound like a consistent player to mean... Injuries or not, you gotta show up.

"The Eagles passing defense was only average on throws right (+16.5% VOA) but one of the best in the league on throws left (+0.3% VOA). "

Hmm... wondering which side Lito primarily covered that season... you guessed it, the right side.

"Worst Success Rate 2007"

#7 Lito Sheppard, PHI: 41%
Last year, according to the FO game charting project, Sheppard allowed 10.4 yards per pass when he was in coverage, the third worst figure among
NFL cornerbacks (83 were ranked). "

Ouch... no wonder the Eagles wanna move him, he had a Marcus Stroud season last year, hearby dubbed a Stroud-son. Anyway, I say one suspect corner in Drayton Florence is enough of a pick-up for one off-season... You're thoughts?

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NFL favors the receiver's now!

You also have to figure in that fact as well. It has become increasingly tough for CB’s to defend passes in this day and age without drawing a penalty. I whole heartedly agree with your take, however I would still be excited if we acquired him. Just like this last weekend when I got excited over Harvey, but quickly regressed about what we had to give up to acquire him. Gotta think about the future, right?

by keef on May 2, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The future is NEVER now...

I am on board with you in terms of using draft picks wisely.

Hopefully the new force-out rule will give a little bit back to defenses. I think you’ll see a new premium put on WR’s who go over the middle this season due to the fact that the sidelines will be a tougher catch than they used to be.

I was reading your comments on Harvey on the other fanpost and I have to agree with you again. It’s really tough to expect a 21 year old kid to come in and dominate his first year. Mario Williams had like 13.5 sacks this year, or some crazy number like that, and I’d be satisfied if Harvey turned out like that.

I think that Groves does have more potential for first day success, having 4.5 speed and the like, but I’m not sure he will ever be stout against the run. Whereas Harvey has the body to stop the run effectively, and has shown he can do so at Florida. They both have their heads on right so I’m glad about that.

by silencecs on May 2, 2008 6:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Your stats are very convincing, but the one thing that gives me hope about him was the way he covered randy moss last season. The numbers from that game weren’t particularly impressive, but I really liked the how physical and aggressive he was with Randy Moss. He bullied him (legally) the whole game. I suppose one game isn’t enough to redeem him from injuries and poor stats, but if the price isn’t too ridiculous (very unlikely), I would be very excited to have him. Not to mention I’ve always been partial to local players. Who knows, maybe a new team and a homecoming could help make him a better player.

by rusty904 on May 3, 2008 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's funny...

Sometimes cornerbacks do their best when they’re facing a “legendary” opponent. Look at what Brian Williams did to Randy Moss in the playoffs. Williams couldn’t cover Reggie Wayne with a wet blanket yet he shuts down, basically, the best WR in the game.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on May 4, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like they say, some of the best moves....

are the moves you don’t make. I think the Lido non-trade fits that cliche along with the Justin Smith(who gets about 1 sack every 3 and a half games), Deangelo Hall, Jared Allen non moves by the Jags. The Jason Taylor non trade probably does too. In my eyes, Lido needs to shuffle off to somewhere other than J’ville because he is an overrated, injury proned, malcontent who, when it comes to getting traded to the Jags, needs to miss the boat that day.

by Jaggernaut on May 4, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fantastic non-point...

Well said. I think you’re right on point with the non-moves comment you made. How many times have we heard about a big named trade going to such-and-such city, and we think… Damn, we missed out again! Only to see the player fail next season in his new home. Credit has to be given for those non-moves… good non-point.

by silencecs on May 4, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The best decisions...

are often the ones not made.

Justin Smith was looked at by the Jaguars, but they are smart enough to figure out that his price would have been overwhelmingly inflated. Defensive End was a big need back in free-agency, but there wasn’t a good fit for us at cost or talent.

What I’m curious is how the draft would have played out had the Jaguars not traded with Baltimore. What was their “plan” for addressing DE? Was it Phillip Merling at 26? Would we have still gotten Groves in the 2nd? Or would it have been guys like Jason Jones?

In the NFL, I would argue that no team makes better strategy decisions regarding talent than the Jaguars. Though the team will be very tested this year in regards to Jerry Porter and Drayton Florence. Particularly the latter, I’m very concerned that his price to output ratio will be disappointing.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on May 4, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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