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Contract Speculation: What is Derrick Harvey Worth?

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Derrick Harvey: Future Millionare

With the Jacksonville Jaguars rapidly approaching training camp, it's useful to get an idea of what type of contract Derrick Harvey will recieve.  Considering that there is no reports of stalemate between the two sides, Harvey will be quickly signing up and packing his things for the opening of camp on Friday.  While several of Harvey's fellow top ten draft picks have signed with their respective teams, there's some ambiguity as to where his contract will fit into the mix. 

The Jamaal Anderson Effect:

To get a better sense of what Harvey is "worth", Jamaal Anderson of the Atlanta Falcons is an interesting barometer.  Anderson, also a defensive end, agreed to a five-year, 31 million dollar contract with 15.361 million in guaranteed money.  With Anderson and Harvey both playing defensive end, it'd seem like this contract would be a good guideline for at least starting negotiations.  Where there could be problems is in the incentive-rich language in Anderson's contract regarding sack totals.  Jamaal can earn various 5 million dollar escalators based on total sacks between 2007 and 2009.  While these sounded good before Anderson entered training camp, that he was held without a single sack might have him regretting putting so much into incentives.

That said, there's some use here in regards to Harvey.  Anderson received a 13.5% increase over the 8th pick in the 2006 draft, Donte Whitner.  If we apply the same inflation rate to Harvey's contract, we can estimate that he'll receive something like 17.431 million in guaranteed money and a total value of 35.185 million.  This, of course, assumes that 13.5 is a reasonable rate of inflation for rookie contracts. 

Mad Money:

Under normal circumstances, we'd assume the rate of inflation and run with the 19/35 number as the "best fit" for the draft slot.  Unfortunatly, the signing process of the 2008 class is difficult to pin down at this point.  The first pick, Jake Long, actually received less money than the 2007 pick, thus denying us a baseline.  The third pick, Matt Ryan, actually recieved a 51% increase from the previous 3rd pick, giving us a horrendous outlier.  Chris Long's contract is somewhere in the 29 million range, which is about a 6% increase, something far more realistic than Ryan's.  Darren McFadden recieved 15% more than Gaines Adams, but far more down to earth than Ryan.

There's simply not enough information right now to realistically project what teams are giving to this rookie class.  For Harvey and the Jaguars, all eyes are on Keith Rivers and Sedrick Ellis, the players selected before and after Harvey.  Should one of them sign over the next few days, the "slotting" becomes more clear.  On Harvey's side, his agent is probably keeping a close eye on what terms Vernon Ghoulston and the Jets agree to, thereby setting a reasonable stage for another defensive end two picks later.

Contract Predictions:

The high end of what Harvey could recieve, assuming a 5-year deal (which is very likely), would be a 15% increase over Anderson.  That would be a 17.66 million in guarenteed money, 35.65 million total value.  If the Jaguars were to lowball Harvey, with a "mere" 10% inflation from Anderson, it'd be 16.92 guarenteed, 34.1 million in total.  While it sounds strange for us mere mortals to consider three quarters of a million dollars a "small difference", the nuances of increasing Harvey's contract over Anderson is fairly insignifcant. 

As for my best guess, it'll be 17.5 million guaranteed, 35 million total , minus some of the crazy esclators that Anderson recieved.  Five years, of course, I don't imagine many agents are keen on the sixth year, unless it's a phony year designed to make the agent look good.

When will he sign?

Soon.  Very soon.  The Jaguars aren't going to go to camp without our rookie defensive ends.  They're just too important to start camp without them, and there is no obvious conflict about what Harvey should be paid.  The Jaguars are also smart enough not to give a young player a nearly incomprehensible amount of money with too much time before camp.  The last thing they need is another player in trouble.  Not to imply that Harvey is a potential problem, but there's nothing wrong with hedging your bets. 

Now, what's going to happen is that Harvey is going to sign for vastly more than I predicted in this post, thereby making me look like a fool.  In that case, I'll blame Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons for runing this for everyone.

-Chris

Poll
Will all the Jaguars be in camp on time?
Yes, there's no reason for a holdout
152 votes
No, greed is good
33 votes

185 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

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If a rookie salary cap is ever agreed to, you’ll have Matt Ryan to personally thank for that. If he doesn’t come out and be a rookie of the year candidate, the pressure will be at an all time high with that. As for Harvey, I doubt the Jags are going to go so far out as the Falcons did with Ryan. 17 million seems a sound number. As long as both are in camp, I don’t really care.

Major League Baseball is dead until Pete Rose is in the Hall of Fame

by FSBlueApocalypse on Jul 21, 2008 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Estimate.

I think the numbers you gave are a good estimate. Both will be in camp on time. They know that Jacksonville isn’t a ruthless program that chews up and spits out players. The loyalty shown in Fred’s contract, aswell as the generosity shown in David’s are indicators that Mr. Weaver and staff are well aware of the standard for contracts and want every player who wants to be a member of this family to know that they take care of their own. ( We’re Jaguars, baby). I think they are both excited to be Jaguars and are going to be valuable assets for a long, long time.

To be master of oneself and never waiver in ones resolve.
- Maximus Desimus Meridius

by jagsrock on Jul 21, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Day 1 Hope

2003 BL-holdout
2004 Am I wrong in recalling RW also held out for about a week?
2005 MJ-holdout
2006 ML-signed same day of TC
2007 RN-signed same day of TC

(please correct me if I’m wrong on any of these)

I’m wondering how big the signing of Groves will be with respect to Harvey. The two will be compared to each other due to circumstances and by the fact they were both SEC stand outs. There is a ground swell of opinion that Groves may be the better of the two and there will surely be a card played noting fan sentiment and team chemistry that will be gained by Groves should he get the advantage of being on the field for a greater amount of time.

Though this is a business, these 2 kids have, unfairly or not, been tagged with a saviour badge and any hold out will be a black eye not only for them but for the FO. I honestly think all parties concerned will recognize the potential bad PR bomb and diffuse it before camp starts.

If you would convince a man that he does wrong, do right. But do not care to convince him. Men will believe what they see. Let them see.

by bwfull on Jul 22, 2008 1:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Greed is Good

Love the greed, be the greed, embrace the greed! lol

Nah I’m just a hopeful colts fan wishing the worst for the Jags. :D

by metal_militia on Jul 22, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

S'ok

The feeling is very mutual! In that good sporting way, of course.

-C

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jul 22, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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