Lies, more lies, and the statistics of the Jaguars pass defense
by FSBlueApocalypse on Oct 23, 2009 8:10 AM EDT
in Meta-Jaguars
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I wrote this blurb about the Jaguars' 2008 pass defense during a Scouting Report on Alphonso Smith
The Jaguars pass defense last year was well, not so good. The Jaguars ranked 24th in the NFL giving up 224 yard per game. Even more concerning, the Jaguars ranked 30th in yards per completion, giving up 8.1 yards per completion. The only other two teams to give up 8+ YPC in 2008? The Rams and the Lions. The Jaguars gave up 55 pass plays of 20 + yards and 17 plays of 40 plus yards, ranking 31st and 32nd in those respective categories. Translation: The Jaguars gave up alot of big plays through the air. Not the news you want to hear in a conference defined by big game quarterbacks.
I singled out those measurements because I felt those gave the best indication of how poor the Jaguars pass defense was last year. As I mentioned last night on the radio show, the two stats that jumped out to me the most were the number of 20+ and 40+ yard passing plays the Jaguars allowed last year. The Jaguars gave up between three to four big plays through the air a game, with one of those going for 40+ yards. The 40+ yard statistic was especially troublesome. The Jaguars were dead last in that category by a long shot. Detriot, New England, and San Francisco were tied for 31st, but only gave up 11 plays.
How does the Jaguars pass defense compare across the board to last year's? The only category they are worse in is yards per game. The unit is now surrendering 262 yards per game compared to 224 last year. The unit has improved across the board everywhere else. They have cut the YPC down to 7.4, bringing their ranking up to 19th in that category. More importantly, they've only given up 15 plays of 20+ yards (Down from 3.5 a game in 2008 to 2.5 a game), with only two going for 40+ yards.
So the question becomes, is the Jaguars pass defense worse or better than it was a year ago?
I would say it is better, despite the increase in yards per game. The Jaguars have faced the Colts, Cardinals, Texans, Rams, and Seahawks in their first six games this season. All of those teams lean heavily on the pass and are going to get their yards one way or the other. The Jaguars certainly surrendered yards, allowing over 300 yards in their first three games in a row.
However, they have managed to keep everything in front of them, and limited the big plays that were suck a back breaker last season.
The emergence of Derek Cox as a legitimate #2 corner has been a major factor for this defensive secondary. Cox has been targeted frequently by opposing teams, and coupled with inconsistent safety play over the top, was largely responsible for many of the big plays teams had against the secondary. However, Cox has been steadily improving and is showing why the Jaguars invested the 2010 2nd round pick in him.
The safety position is the area of most concern in the unit though. Gerald Alexander has been inconsistent, though has shown flashes from the strong saftey position. He'll need to become more consistent over the next ten games though if he wants some job security.
Reggie Nelson has been another enigma for this team. After an excellent rookie year, Nelson has been stuck in neutral. While some of that can be blamed on his role in Gregg Williams' defense a year ago, why is he still making bad reads and being caught out of position as much as he? Granted, he played very well against the Rams, which has me hoping he's improving and will finish the season strong.
What do the statistics tell you BCC? Is this a young secondary that is now turning the corner, or a medicore unit that somehow managed to get out of dead last?
-Jonathan Loesche
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More yards per game = better defense?
I cheer three and out. I equate good defense with no ability to move the ball. Offense euqals moving the ball and scoring, defense equals stopping the opponent from moving the ball and scoring. It used to be so easy to understand, now I am lost. More yards a game is better.
Can you say there are signs of impeding improvement? Maybe. Can you say they look like they are getting closer to improving? Maybe. To say they are better? OK, fine, I will shout move those chains for the defense and the offense.
Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!
by Tkopa on Oct 23, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve always felt that points per game is the best indication of a good defense. It doesn’t matter how many yards, as long as the defense doesn’t score, it’s not a big deal.
by Kbot on Oct 23, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if the offense turns the ball over 4 times that lead to scores that is the defenses fault?
Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!
by Tkopa on Oct 23, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No.
Only how many points are scored against the defense. It takes a little more effort to look at than the final score, but it’s a pretty accurate judge of the effectiveness of the defense. Just subtract defensive touchdowns from the final score, and you’ll see how many points the defense actually gave up.
by Kbot on Oct 24, 2009 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what Terry meant is that
The offense has the ball in their own territory, and they turn it over. Say the other team has it at the 30 now. The defense now suddenly has to defend a short field. It would be a victory to hold to a field goal, but that’s still giving up points, but that’s hardly the defense’s fault. A better indicator of success would be holding the opposing team to 8 yards, not allowing a first down, and forcing them to attempt a 40 yard field goal. Keeping the other team from moving the ball is much more important than whether or not the kicker makes the field goal.
We can apply this to the Rams game. The Rams gave up 500+ yards, but only 23 points were scored against them due to an avalanche of poorly-timed errors by the Jaguars. Would anyone really say that the Rams played great defense? I don’t think so. In this case, it’s much more important to look at the sheer number of yards given up than points allowed.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Oct 24, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand what you and Terry are saying.
But I disagree. What about teams with excellent red zone defenses that allow very few points? Do the yards really matter in those cases? Yards can indicate defensive effectiveness, but points are much more so. In your example, I would expect a good defense to hold the opposing offense to a field goal. It’s pretty simple, if a defense is playing well, drives will result in three or zero points, while an ineffective defense gives up seven. By considering the number of touchdowns versus field goals/three-and-outs allowed, I feel that I can get a good gauge on the defense.
by Kbot on Oct 24, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here is an interesting site for defense value over league average (DVOA) stats
Last year’s pass defense was ranked 29th overall and so far this year it’s 28th. Our rush defense is 6th and total D is currently 22nd.
Take the time to read the DVOA explanation – it goes deeper than just yards gained as it takes into account down & distance or scoring situations.
by OGN on Oct 23, 2009 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't need statistics as long as my eyes work
My eyes tell me that the defense can’t protect a lead. The way I look at defense is simple: if I lose the overtime coin toss, how confident do I feel that I’ll touch the ball before the game ends? I had zero confidence last year, and I have just as little confidence this year. And that’s where I can use the statistic about giving up more yards, because it outweighs everything. In overtime, those yards are points.
As you pointed out, John, the safety position is a mess, but the defensive line is in even more dire need of talent. That’s where I would use a first round pick rather than on someone like Eric Berry (yeah yeah, BAP and all that, but you have to admit the big guys usually go first). So when you have a mess of a position still failing to rush the QB and another mess of a position still failing to cover WRs…well, I just don’t see what’s “improving” about that.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Oct 23, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think the big difference between this year and last
as far as the big plays goes is tackling. One thing Cox really excels at is getting the guy on the ground. So even if he does give up the completion, he doesn’t miss tackles the way guys did last year. And quite often when the CB misses the first tackle, there’s nobody around and it turns into a big play.
by pksiv on Oct 23, 2009 10:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That is true
Tackling is much better this year.
Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!
by Tkopa on Oct 23, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
last year a high school team did better tackling than we did, now this year we can actually bring people to the group, and there is always 3+ teal jersey coming in quickly for support. I’ve bashed our defense every time I which a game (minus the titans) b/c I see stopping a team on 3rd downs as the main factor to a good defense. However, our LB core is pretty sick, I think way better than last year, and they are going to be an elite group within the NFL very soon. Our secondary I think is an improvement with Cox, yet the SS and FS positions are my big worry. Alexander has the potential, I just think he needs good coaching, hell he came from the Lions. Considine has been a disappointment for me this year, and he really needs to kick it into overdrive. FS is while…in trouble, I want sooo bad to like Nelson and I do for a while then he blows assignment after assignment. I’m a huge supporter that Gregg Williams hurt the development of the defense, but Nelson needs to show some of that spark from his rookie year, or step aside. Finally, I think our D-line is developing well, with such a mix bunch I think it will take time to find the right combination. However, I would LOVE to see Landri getting more time!
by Messina on Oct 23, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 I think Landri is the player hurt most by this defensive change...
He did everything to become more of an impact DT in the offseason, and in my opinion was poised for a big year. However, this defensive change has limited his opportunities to see the field, and he’s struggling as a result.
We should’ve traded landri if we’re really committed to this 3-4 scheme… the guy just doesn’t fit, and it’s a shame because he’s very talented and plays up in big games. Landri is another catastrophe of the 3-4 defensive alignment…
Molōn labe!
The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com
by silencecs on Oct 23, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they were planning to mix the two
until Reggie Hayward went down for the year. He really was our only true every down 4-3 DE.
by pksiv on Oct 23, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vic said
2-3 weeks ago, that in a 3-4 there is no room for Landri.
And in a 3-4 there is no big room for Harvey either….
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Oct 23, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Word
I’m always fine with a corner giving up an underneath completion as long as he just makes the tackle.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
by Bestjagfan on Oct 23, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pass rush is the key
once the Jaguars can sack the QB-the pass defense will get a major boost. Without passrush, QBs have all the time to throw, and all depend on how good day they have against us. Sadly that is what inside these numbers.
Yeah there are some weak points in the secondary(if an Ed Reed would be at safety, QBs have much more fears to throw the ball) but until the passrush won’t be fixed, the pass coverage will be always an area of concern
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Oct 23, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just keep wearing that lucky shirt before kickoff Zoltan :-)
by OGN on Oct 23, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I learned my lesson Clay!
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Oct 23, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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