Attention Jaguars: Beating the Colts is Simple Math

I’m a Colts fan, but here’s the secret to beating them:

1) Force the Colts to kick 2-3 field goals;

2) When the Jags have the ball, they need to have 6-8 minute drives, so that they can limit the Colts possessions, and come the fourth quarter, they can start hammering the Colts worn down defense with their running game;

3) Mix in the short passing game with the run. Look what Denver did last week with Brandon Marshall. He basically caught 21 8 yard passes. If the Broncos could have converted better down in the red zone, and Orton didn’t throw the pick in the end zone, they probably would have won the game. Ball control through running and the short passing game is super important.

4) Don’t be afraid to kick field goals. The Jags need to get into a field goal game with the Colts in order to win. Don’t be intimidated by the Colts offense and pass up FG arttempts on 4th and 1, or 4th and 2, just b/c you think that you won’t keep up with the Colts.

That said, I think the Colts are going to wreck the Jags tomorrow night. I don’t mean any disrespect toward the Jags. They’re a good franchise with a bad coach. I love the style of ball that the Jags have traditionally played, that smash mouth style, with a bruising, hard hitting defense. I wish the Colts were playing that style of football. But Del Rio has got to go. He’s not a leader; he’s a finger pointer, the way that he black balled Mike Peterson and Byron Leftwich was a disgrace. That’s a move that a loser football coach typically will make. Marty Schottenheimer could make this squad a championship team.

Here’s the thing about Byron that everyone knows: Byron can’t move; in order for him to be successful, he needs a good offensive line.

Now, I think that’s a liability in the NFL in this era. But the few times that he played for the Steelers last year, they protected him, and he looked good. Tampa was a disaster waiting to happen. You knew that Byron wasn’t going to get protected behind that line.

I watched Byron throw for 300 yards against the Colts, and he looked like the second coming. I think Byron is a good passer, but he is limited b/c of his lack of mobility. Don’t get me wrong, I like Garrard too, but he and Byron are night and day as the type of football players that they are. I’m not saying that JDR couldn’t get rid of Byron; but what he did with regard to Byron was wrong. He had a big problem with Byron from the previous season. He waited until the week before the following season started to cut him. It was a spiteful move by a petty coach.

Hey, I’m a Colts fan, and I like the rough and tumble style of the Jags and respect them as an organization. Even better, I loved Del Rio in college at USC, and I always liked him as a player, with the Chiefs and I believe the Vikings. And I was happy when he was made coach of the Jags. I thought his type of personality would be good for the organization. But the Leftwich and Peterson thing left me with a bad taste in my mouth for the guy. It shows a guy that is petty and vindictive. That’s not who I want as the leader of my organization. Not only that, but the team quit on him down the stretch last year.

I don’t think that JDR is doing a bad job this year considering the rookie tackles, and the young guys on defense. But I think when you add up what he’s done over the time that he’s been at Jacksonville, he’s been very mediocre at best. And that’s with a team that has gotten decent play out of the QB position, great play from the RB’s and the offensive line, and pretty good play from the defense during most of his tenure. The one true weak spot has been at the WR position. But with the great running game, it’s not a disaster for them. If I’m the owner, I look elsewhere. There are a million mediocre football coaches out there.

Garrard did melt down at the end of the 2006 season. But JDR was unhappy about having to stick with Byron. He could have cut Byron early in training camp; he could have cut him midway through training camp; he could have cut him at the end of training camp. Instead, he cut him a week before the season started. The question isn’t who is better. If JDR thought that Garrard was better, great. They are two completely different types of QB. You can’t compare them; you can only say that one is more suited to the style of play that JDR wants to go with. So if Garrard was his choice, and it was so obvious that Garrard was the guy, why cut Byron so late? Because JDR was being spiteful. He was pissed at Byron from the season before.

The issue is not how good Garrard is. At his best, Garrard is a guy that can move the chains with the medium – short passing game. He’s tough in the pocket, and mobile. He also makes very few mistakes. I like him; he’s a good player. Byron is more of a pure passer. He’s a guy that is better at getting the ball down field. But with the worst receivers in the league, that wasn’t going to happen. Yes, he’s not that mobile, and he has been fragile ever since the end of his college career. They’re different players, and if JDR wanted Garrard instead of Byron, he could have handled it in a less vindictive, spiteful way.

I agree that the Steelers offensive line is terrible. But they did a good job of protecting Byron when he played for them last year. They probably schemed it that way, b/c they knew that would have no chance of winning if Byron was getting flushed from the pocket, although Byron can’t be flushed from the pocket: He doesn’t move well enough to actually get out of the pocket.

The Jags have always been a physical team. Fred Taylor had a nice combination of speed and power; Natrone Means was a nice power back as well. These guys were in Jacksonville well before JDR took over.

Mike Peterson was a dynamite Jag for years. I was pissed that he left the Colts for the Jags. He’s a good player. But last year, JDR lost control of the team; things fell apart, and he took it out on Peterson. All of a sudden, Mike Peterson became this bad guy? I don’t think so. When a team quits, it’s the coaches fault, period. That Jag team gave up last year. It was JDR’s fault, and he tried shifting the blame by pointing fingers elsewhere. Classless. Leaders get out front and take responsibility, not allude to it being someone elses fault. I think the Jags are playing okay this year, given the youth at key positions. But looking at JDR entire body of work: He’s a mediocre coach; he’s a poor mans Jeff Fisher.

As an aside, while I am a big Colts fan, I love it when the division is up for grabs. I prefer that the Titans, Jags, Texans, and Colts all be good. Although I hate losing within the division, and it’s tough losing games in the last second, like when we lost to the Titans in the waning seconds on a 60 yard FG by Bironas; or when Scobee beats us late, all of the teams have developed rivalries with all of the rest of the division. The Colts have been the dominant team for the last six years, but most of the time, the division games are real battles. Typically as a Colts fan, I dread facing the division, b/c everyone is so amped up to play each other. While I think tomorrow will be an easy win for the Colts, I still have to brace myself, b/c deep down, I know the Jags are very capable of pulling a great game out, and ending the undefeated season and the 22 game winning streak. And of course, the Jags are fighting for their playoff lives, so they don’t need any incentive other than that to win.

I like the Jags, but I don’t like JDR as the coach. i think the Jags and Jag fans can do better. Good luck tomorrow night.

Well said. But actually, I’m talking about the Natrone Means that in 1996 playoffs, rushed for 175 yards against Buffalo on the road, and then the next week, did the impossible and carried the Jags to a victory with 140 yards rushing, and 46 yards receiving at Mile High against the Broncos, becoming one of the first teams ever to win in the post season in Denver, and carrying the Jags to the AFC championship game.

You should like the Jags. As a matter of fact, it’s disgraceful that Florida has not been more supportive of the Jags. I’ve always liked them, and I root for the Colts. That said, the Jags aren’t going to get off the hook so easily this time against the Colts. They were completely dominated the last game, only ringing up a total of 228 yards of offense. No free lunch for the Jags this time.

Prediction Colts 31 Jags 20

One step closer for JDR to being on the unemployment line, which will be a good things for the Jags and the Jag fans. Again, good luck tomorrow night.

I agree with Keithg 100%. It’s really about pressuring the QB. The secondary isn’t that important if your front 7 can bring heat. Anybody can play in the secondary if you’re constantly pressuring the QB.

The two playoff games that the Colts lost to the Patriots in the 2000’s all came down to the Colts not protecting Manning. When they lost to the Steelers in 2005 after going 14-2, Manning got sacked 5 times in that game and pressured all game long. The Kags did the smart thing drafting the two DE’s, but they’ve gotta start playing better.

Anyway, the beauty of the AFC South is that typically, the Colts are going to play finesse football. But… when they have to contend with teams that are typically physical, like the Titans and Jags, it presents problems for them. It’s kind of like the AFC South has their own checks and balance system.

Next year, the Titans are going to be a force for everyone to deal with, now that Vince Young seems to have gotten over the hump. If the Titan defense can improve a bit, they’ll be tough for everyone to beat.

The Jags can really step it up next year too. They need to draft a big time WR. Sims-Walker has had a really nice year. They get another good WR for the other side, and the Jag offense will be in business. Then if those two DE can start playing a little bit better, become better at pressuring the QB, the defense will really be in business too.

That leaves the Texans, which is a finesse team like the Colts. I think it’s funny that they whooped up on the Seahawks this week, when the game was basically meaningless. They have a lot of talent, but have come up empty in almost every meaningful game this year. They were a big disappointment this season. I was hoping to see them get over the hump. Andre Johnson is dynamite.