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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Jaguars in the Northeast: Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow?

If you have watched any news at all in the last week or so, you guys all know that a storm has hit the northeast and absolutely covered the area in white. Take a look at what NASA satellites saw from space just yesterday:

  Dec09-snowstorm-lg_medium

Via TheDailyGreen.com

Early forecasts show that it probably wont be snowing come game time, but it will be somewhere around the 30s or 40s with 10+ mile per hour winds. Hardly Jacksonville weather. Definitely New England weather. Does that mean the Patriots are at an advantage in this weather, or does it actually play to the Jaguars' strengths? Is a white Christmas weekend in New England what we want as Jaguar fans?

Star-divide

History shows that the Jaguar don't play very well in the cold. Here are the 9 coldest games in franchise history:

  1. 9 degrees Dec. 17, 2000 @ Cincinnati L 14-17
  2. 12 degrees Dec. 19, 2004 @ Green Bay W 28-25
  3. 19 degrees Dec. 7, 2008 @ Chicago L 10-23
  4. 23 degrees Dec. 23, 2000 @ New York G L 25-28
  5. 24 degrees Jan. 7, 2006 @ New England L 3-28
  6. 25 degrees Dec. 14, 2003 @ New England L 13-27
  7. 26 degrees Jan. 10, 1999 @ New York J L 24-34
  8. 27 degrees Jan. 12, 1997 @ New England L 6-20
  9. 28 degrees Dec. 4, 2005 @ Cleveland W 20-14

The stat that has been most telling has been the turnovers in these games:

  1. 1 turnover
  2. 2 turnovers
  3. 1 turnover
  4. 2 turnovers
  5. 2 turnovers
  6. 2 turnovers
  7. 4 turnovers
  8. 4 turnovers 
  9. 1 turnover

The Jaguars have never won in New England; mainly due to an inability to hang onto the ball. In five trips to Foxboro, the Jags have managed to turn the ball over to the Patriots 12 times. That's 2.4 times a game. The key to this game has to be the Jaguars ability to hang onto the ball in cold, windy conditions. The way to do this is by keeping the ball out of the windy air and in the safe arms of Maurice Jones-Drew. He has fumbled only once this season and has played very well in cold in the past.

Now the Patriots are not the undefeated passing attack they were in 2007, but their ability to throw the ball is not to be underestimated. Tom Brady is back and he has been a Jaguar killer in prior years. What is noticeable is that the Patriots passing attack seems to decline in the month of December. With the cold weather comes less passing numbers without a proportional increase in the rushing numbers to counterbalance. Here are the Patriots numbers by month during the 2007 and 2009 seasons:

September

2007:  289 yards passing/game 152 yards rushing/game

2009: 287 yards passing/game 108 yards rushing/game

October

2007: 312 yards passing/game 126 yards rushing/game

2009: 294 yards passing/game 120 yards rushing/game

November

2007: 327 yards passing/game 93 yards rushing/game

2009: 308 yards passing/game 114 yards rushing/game

December

2007: 270 yards passing/game 98 yards rushing/game

2009*: 220 yards passing/game 130 yards rushing/game

*(Through 3 December games)

I believe the Jaguars are in the best situation if the weather in Boston is as cold and windy as possible. Now I ask you BCC, how would you like the conditions to be in Foxboro when the Jaguars take on the Patriots? 

-Adam

Poll
What weather do you want this Sunday?
The snowier the better!
132 votes
The Jaguars can't play in the snow. Bring out the sunshine!
24 votes
Does it matter? The Patriots are gonna win either way.
73 votes
Who cares? The Jaguars are going to win this one easy.
59 votes

288 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 24 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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+1

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Dec 21, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

The games I used were straight from the Jaguars media guide

Under coldest games in franchise history.

That Pittsburgh game was 39 degrees at kickoff.

by Adam Stites on Dec 21, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I forgot

It was only 39 degrees. For some reason I was thinking it was around 10.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

+1000000

Me babe, steppin' out
Into the night, into the light

by Orlando Rays on Dec 23, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I think talent outweighs adverse weather conditions

NE had Brady
NYJ had curtis Martin and etc

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.

by TheTealDeal on Dec 21, 2009 7:37 PM EST reply actions  

I think weather is no factor

This team won in GB in december. Defeat Pittsburgh twice in the Winter.

IT’s players not the weather-to transfrom a Vic-ism.

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 21, 2009 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

Snowier the better

Take away New England’s passing attack. I want every condition against the Jags, so when they pull out the win, the league has to talk about ’em.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Dec 21, 2009 8:02 PM EST reply actions  

Makes it ideal for the running game

Jags seem to play well in cold weather, so I think Maurice will run the ball well. I’m kinda looking forward to seeing if Fred is going to play, if he’s healthy.

by JagsAlex87 on Dec 21, 2009 11:21 PM EST reply actions  

if it snows alot he might

but if its not too bad out then prob not seeing how they are prob going to try to throw alot against our secondary and lack there of a pass rush

by jags2732 on Dec 22, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

The Jaguars went to pittsburgh with a below zero wind chill

and wore cut-off jerseys just to show they were ready to play (or stupid about the real danger).

Point is this, give this team harsh conditions, they roll in it.

Let it snow!

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Dec 21, 2009 11:49 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 22, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Tom Brady?

He is not the same guy, he used to be.
I know we don’t have pass russ , but if we try, we can win.
They are not the same team, a lot of changes , and we can use this.
I realy belive we are better team.

by Nikola R on Dec 22, 2009 5:03 AM EST reply actions  

Brady is still elite specially to our secondary

even without Nelson. They not give the ball to there TES which is a good news. They are stuggling against the run-another good news.

But I still think the chances are 25-75% AT BEST!

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 22, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I like the odds

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.

by TheTealDeal on Dec 22, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

we make guys like ryan fitzpatrick look pro-bowl esque

not saying we cant win, but i think it would be very nieve to think brady isnt going to have a great day

by jags2732 on Dec 23, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

less passing in bad weather

means more rushing and the glaring lack of a pass rush isnt as problamatic. = we have a chance

I can.

by cty on Dec 22, 2009 9:44 AM EST reply actions  

Nice post!

I give a little credence to “cold weather teams playing better in cold weather” simply because they have the chance to PRACTICE in it. That is, our players know how to run in the snow, handle the ball with cold hands, etc… I guess it’s like driving in snow. As a kid, my dad took me to a parking lot and let me skid around in the stuff to get used to it.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Dec 22, 2009 11:15 AM EST reply actions  

Jack wants snow

Hopefully, it’ll be cold, blustery and snow will be falling. That would be great. I’d welcome that," Del Rio said. "We have a group of mudders. We don’t get to see snow down here. I think our guys look forward to that type of thing."

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 23, 2009 3:58 AM EST reply actions  

Bad news

Current forecast suggests RAIN for Sunday afternoon, according to Weather Underground.

Me babe, steppin' out
Into the night, into the light

by Orlando Rays on Dec 23, 2009 9:18 AM EST reply actions  

I wouldn't consider that bad news

Bad weather is bad weather. Anything to slow down the passing game works.

by Adam Stites on Dec 23, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

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