Comcast Presents: Dr.FSBA or How I learned to stop worrying and learned to love the Jaguars red zone struggles

by Jonathan Loesche on Dec 8, 2009 7:40 AM EST in Meta-Jacksonville Jaguars Comment 4 comments

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This post is brought to you by Comcast and the new NFL Red Zone channel. Catch every touchdown from every game, only on NFL Red Zone.

(Quick Note: You may remember the Dr.FSBA segments I've done before, and I decided this was a good time to revive it. Was too lazy to change it with with screen name change.)

I've was sitting here and just shaking my head as I heard Brian Sexton say Maurice Jones-Drew was stuffed at the one yard line. If there has been one constant for the Jaguars this season, it's that you can never count on them to actually score once they get inside the 20 yard line.

But you know what, it's all going to be ok. Statistically, the Jaguars have no where to go but up at this point in the red zone efficiency department. I was struggling to find a good metaphor for this situation until I think I came across one that sums up the Jaguars ability to not score in the red zone.

It's like a fun game of Russian roulette every time the Jaguars end up in the red zone, but using rules that would make The Deer Hunter seem weak.

In your standard game of Russian roulette, as seen on TV, 1 out of 6 bullets are loaded into a revolver and spun. Assuming after each try the chamber is respun, each participant has a 16.67% chance of "winning".

On the other hand, your Jaguars want to live life on the brink. They have have had 12 red zone possessions result in no points in 39 total trips, or 31% of the time. Moral of the story, if you ever need to bet on surviving a game of Russian Roulette or the Jaguars not scoring in the red zone, just make sure the revolver isn't fixed.

On a positive note, the Jaguars for once didn't have the most face palm worthy moment in the red zone this week. That of course goes to the Houston Texans decision to throw a half back pass on a First and Goal from the 4. Our comrades at Battle Red Blog know all too well what this feels like.

If the Jaguars do end up making the playoffs, I think BCC needs to send Chris Brown a thank you letter for his efforts. His fumble at the one in Week 3 and the pass play are the two reasons the Jaguars are 7-5 and the Texans are 5-7, and not the other way around.

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Thanks Dr. FSBA (I like that name)

Redzone efficiency is sloly becoming a Top 3 problem. But you know what I noticed. Who is strugguling scoring a TD very lately? MJD.
Does itmean the Jaguars struggle in the redzone because MJD struggles to score?
I think yes; and that raises questions to me like-Why Greg Jones not have a shot to score in these days? I mean he is prey big. We should use that abiliy. If Maurice is strugguling in situations like this-Give Greg a shot.

By the way I just checked this:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/jaguarswhatif.html
This says: 3 wins=100% Playoffs!!!
But here is stunning thing: 2 wins= 65% to make the postseason.
All of sudden this Dolphins game is getting VEEEEEEERY BIIIIIIIIG!!!!

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 8, 2009 7:55 AM EST reply actions

most say 10 wins is the magic number to make playoffs

so every game now is the biggest game of the season. mia is a good team but i think we match up well with them, ind might have afc home field locked up and rest players and even if they dont, we played them very tough the first matchup, pats look like a former shell of the team they used to be, weak d and brady not getting it done in crunch time, and then there is the Browns, enough said, its the Browns

im very optimistic about the remaining schedule and this team, but it seems that every time i get excited about a game or stretch of schedule, i seem to get disappointed so ill try to not get my hopes up too high. GO JAGS!

by jags2732 on Dec 8, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe 9-7 will be enough too

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/jaguarswhatif.html
This says-2 wins=65% Playoffs…

I think this game is a MUST WIN; the game; etc. If the Jaguars win this xan knock out the Dolphins can go at least .500 and have there 1 foot in the playoff roon

I have fears too: Miami didn’T lost undder Sparano in december-so he can put his people together in Crunchzime.

VEry tough game coming up!

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 8, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions