The Defensive Improvement and the Impact of Rashean Mathis
by Adam Stites on Dec 8, 2009 7:39 PM EST
38 comments
(via www.jaguars.com)
During training camp, Jaguar fans made sure to be cautious with their hopes for the 2009 season. It was understood that this was to be a rebuilding year, and that although improvement over the course of the year was what to be expected, the playoffs were not. After all this was a team featuring four rookie starters in week One of the season. Two of those rookies, Derek Cox and Terrance Knighton, were on a defense trying to recover from a poor 2008 season in which the unit finished 21st in the league.
The defense struggled out of the gate, losing a great player in Reggie Hayward, but an improvement has been evident and the fans are seeing it. Charting the team's performance is difficult to get fair results because a hugely valuable player in Rashean Mathis has been missing with finger and groin injuries. This is what the improvement of the defense has looked like while Rashean Mathis has participated:
The black lines are the best fit trend-lines that show the improvement. Most of the improvement has come from the pass defense in this chart. The improvement is very evident and steady.
In the next chart, the performances while Rashean Mathis was inactive. They will be evaluated in the exact same format:
In this chart, the rushing defense is clearly the unit showing improvement, while the passing defense is the one staying even. Now this doesn't mean that Rashean Mathis is, by any means, a hindrance to the growth of the running defense or a poor rush defender. A rational explanation for this is that the opposing offenses were likely attacking the Jaguars' inexperienced secondary and taking rushes away from the offense.
The impact of Rashean Mathis's absence has been very little according to these charts. However, his impact is likely being masked by the improvement of the defensive unit as a whole. What the graphs do show is that it looks like Mathis provides a much more consistent defense for the Jaguars. The defense has been extremely inconsistent with him on the bench.
Make what you will out of the numbers, both with and without Rashean in the lineup. What can't be argued is that the Jaguars defense is improving.
-Adam Stites
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Good read
The Jags absolutely need Rashean back this week, not only for the Dolphins, but for Indy and the Pats here in the next few weeks. Although I hate the fact he’s been hurt, I do like that Cox and T-Brack have gotten some very important experience in Rashean’s absence.
What is his injury report?
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Original and thought provoking…
I would say we’ve improved against the run because T-brack plays the run a whole lot better than Mathis.
You would think we would have to commit more people to defending the pass (I.e. only 7 in the box typically to protect against the pass) when Mathis is out. That’s my reasoning. Also, T-brack is clearly a better run stopper than Mathis…
Molōn labe!
The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com
I have to say it's a matter of simple math
If Mathis is there, I would hesitate to throw at him. If T-Brack is in there, I’m gameplanning to go after him all day.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 8, 2009 10:59 PM EST reply actions
But think of it this way.
With Mathis in, we play more 8 man fronts, with only a single high safety, typically Nelson shading to Cox’s side. That can lead to more throws by the opponent because we’re TRYING to stop the run, and there are fewer people defending the pass.
Without Mathis, it’s all 7 man fronts for the most part, mening it should be easier to run because we are committing more men to the secondary.
Molōn labe!
The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com
But on the other hand, look at the way other teams play defense against the Jags
They usually load the box to stop the box, but the Jaguars continue to run with MJD because it’s their gameplan. If I’m an opposing coordinator, I’m probably not going to care that there are 4 defensive backs instead of 3. If my plan is to take advantage of the fact that the Jaguars are missing their Pro Bowl cornerback, I’m sticking with that plan unless something goes seriously wrong.
In the end, it’s probably a little of everything. Maybe T-Brack is a little better against the run, maybe opponents are running less, and maybe the defense has gotten a little better overall. Hey, the Jaguars are in the playoff hunt and I’m done with finals! Life is good!
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 9, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
defensive switch
i think it has less to do with Mathis’ injury, and more to do with the switch back to a 4-3. our linebackers have played better in that formation, allowing for a better run defense.
So, I think this begs the question:
What should we expect when Rashean returns? What defensive changes will we see, if any? How should we anticipate our opponents to react? Discuss!
Hoookay
so apparently this chart has deceived some people. Yeah the slope is steeper with Mathis out, making it look like our run D improved more. But I think everyone forgot that without Mathis our run defense suddenly became worse, and just now the run D is getting back to where it was with Mathis. SO really, the whole argument is moot because the question makes a false/deceiving assertion that the run D is better with Mathis out.
However
I do think Tyron is better against the run, but I think that has little to do with Mathis IMO, but rather the safety play improving and the DE’s improving against the run. Generally you want bigger guys to stop the run, but for a while there we were going out with 3 to 4 DT’s that were just getting beat by speed around the corners.
Ok I understand that the line is a little deceiving.
It does have a steeper slope downward due to Chris Johnson tearing us apart.
However, in the last 3 weeks the defense has given up 53, 52 and 68 rushing yards a game. That’s an average of 57.67 yards a game. The Steelers currently have the best rushing defense in the league, giving up 77.75 yards a game. So the rushing has improved.
Look, I’m not making any sort of judgement or thesis. I just find the numbers intriguing and I left the interpretation up to the readers.
What do u guys think of Tyron or Gerald taking Reggie's place?
Reggie can play our nickel packages until he proves otherwise……..I know he is a first round pick, but I want to see the Reggie from his rookie year. Do you remember the Miami game? Chris Chambers still has nightmares…………..From year 2 forward he has been a shoestring tackler…….He used to be a graceful FS, with the power of a SS. What happened to that?
frankDUBZ aka Frank Silba
I'm not quite ready to give up on Reggie
Mel Tucker is a secondary specialist and I really feel that he can work with Nelson to understand coverages better. I’ve actually seen a lot of improvement this year as compared to last year.
+1
Nelson is showing improvement and is starting to make some very good plays. He has the talent and the physical tools, he just needs to improve the mental aspects of his game. Tucker should be able to help him.
The real test of the defense is fast approching
Miami; Indy; and New England-these 3 teams will show us how good (or bad) the Jags D are right now.
I give you another idea; why the defense is improving:
-The work of Del Rio and Tucker slowly shows some reults;
-We have better players (No Brian Russell; instead Anthony Smith anyone?)
-Somebody is always stepping up ;
-Derek Cox is no more a beginner at the secondary;
-Alexander and Considine is quite good lately;
-Run defense is becoming something that the Jaguars can do VERY WELL
-And a very big one:
We are a very healthy team compered to EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THE NFL
(Mathis and Considine was out from the key players; hey can come back-2 BIg players are just on IR-Reggie Hayward; and DIllard)
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 9, 2009 4:00 AM EST reply actions
By the way great article Adam!!!!!
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 9, 2009 4:00 AM EST up reply actions
I really think
that we would have 2 more wins by season’s end if Hayward hadn’t gotten hurt. I said it then even before the season started that Hayward would be the key to our pass rush, and now look at what has happened since he got hurt. Hayward has just as many sacks as Groves and Harvey combined and they’ve had a combined 22 games between them to surpass him. Now that’s just sad, especially after having played teams like KC, STL, SEA, and BUF.
by Ewdtrey on Dec 9, 2009 4:27 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I still cant believe that
they couldnt get a sack in those 4 games. Once the pass rush improves the team as a whole will impove.
It's all about the lines
I really believe our secondary will improve greatly in coverage if we can ever get a pass rush. I also believe our offense is ready to explode if we can protect David on a regular basis.
Hopefully we can make the playoffs with what we have. And draft/sign some interior line help to go with a hopefully improving pair of OT’s.
Defensive philosophy switch...
Another thing to note is the switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3 that came before the KC game (IIRC). It seems that the Run D greatly improved from the switch, and as the defensive rookies and young, new players grow more accustomed to the 4-3, the better the Run D becomes.
When Rashean comes back, teams will have to turn towards Cox’s side of the field. Cox is playing great right now, so I could see our Pass D improving and maybe we’ll start to see more consistent interceptions off opposing QB’s.
Cox
The game against the Texans truely showed his improvement… he did a FANTASTIC job on the second best reciever in the game and as a ROOKIE!!!
If that had been Mathis we wouldve seen that as a great game because without the 53 yard catch Andre would have only had like 50 some yards recieving (thats incredible)
PLus Cox is a sure tackler, which is a problem with corners…
also anthony smith started for the Steelers so i see him as a viable option… we have a deep secondary… young but deep
If Andre
Is the second best, who is the best?
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
It's difficult to make the argument
Andre’s never made the playoffs so who knows, but in the regular season Andre is better. Plus Andre doesn’t have an Anquan Boldin opposite him spreading out coverages.
Good Point
Still I think Fitzgeralds better, but the difference is not much if any. Regardless its impressive and thats the main thing
Andre
Can do it all. Best receiver in the league. IMO
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
Recommended by P. Kuharsky= Great job
Congratulation!
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Dec 9, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions
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