Life After the Salary Cap, Part 1: Smart Scouting

by Jonathan Loesche on Mar 8, 2009 4:21 PM EDT in Meta-Jacksonville Jaguars

Florida_20logo_medium Florida-state-seminoles-logo_medium

Will these be the Jaguars "Minor League Affiliates"

This is going to be a subject I dive deeper into later on in the offseason, however, I feel this is a good a time as any to speak on this subject. The NFL will almost certainly not have a salary cap when all is said and done with the new CBA. Hell, creative teams already operate as if there is no salary cap.

The main fear of fans is that it will become like baseball, where a team like the Redskins will be like the Yankees and essentially buy a Super Bowl. I can understand those fears, especially for the Jaguars.. However, I am here to try and show you how the Jaguars can still field a competitive team and not be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL(Sorry to any Royals fans reading this.)

This first part is scouting. The beauty of Division 1-A college football is that it churns out a crop of NFL ready players yearly. The additional beauty of being a team in Florida is............

Per CBS Sportsline, the top 8 schools among active NFL players are

Miami - 55
Georgia - 54
LSU - 50
Michigan - 50
Ohio State - 47
Florida - 43
USC - 42
Florida State - 42

The Jaguars are a day's drive away from being able to scout four of the biggest football factories in the US. Assuming the draft stays the way it is, a team like Jacksonville would be at an advantage because they could get more time to scout those top programs.

Am I saying by 2012 the Jaguars will become the Jacksonville Hurri-nole-tor-dogs? No. What I'm saying is that the Jaguars will have a better chance to get NFL ready prospects coming out of college and using that to their advantage. Rookies are always cheaper than free agents, and we're close to four schools that would provide a good return for the money.

As Vic Ketchman says, if the cap goes, teams are going to have to think creatively. Here's my first idea, make sure you know the talent in your own backyard very well.

-John

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Comments

Very good article and I look forward to more pieces in this series

It’s definitely a thought provoking subject.

Also I would’ve never guessed that Miami was the #1 producer of NFL players as of today.

by Adam Stites on Mar 8, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

A lot of

the Miami players are older. They have recently slowed down.

by Ewdtrey on Mar 8, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

unfortunately

youre right about us scooping the little guys up out of need over the next few years

surreal to be teal

by Surteal on Mar 8, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

ehhh... The best thing about no salary cap is that there would be no salary floor.

So, if you could field a team with 20 million (hypothetically), you could do very well for yourself as an owner.

Lets look at the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays…
2 titles for the Marlins, and the rays just went to the world series last year.

A-Rod makes more in a year than either team spends on their entire roster… If people in FLA cared about baseball, those would be great franchises to go watch. Cheap tickets, great product.

Also, the NFLPA doesn’t want no salary cap. Here’s why in a nutshell ( full post to come later)

The NFL pays close to 250 million into funds for retired players, college tuition, legal fees etc. That’s money for every NFL player to access. That helps everyone.
The average length of an NFL career is less than 5 years, if all players are RFA until their sixth year, than many players will either not get the chance to earn the big FA dollars, or they will miss out on at least one more lucrative trip to FA. Those are huge selling points to the majority of players…

-Collin

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 8, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

very interesting

surreal to be teal

by Surteal on Mar 8, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I Thought The Players Association

Was a fan of no cap, but you’re right. A lot of players could miss their chance to cash in with no cap. While no cap would help players right now, it won’t help the RFA 5 years from now.

Thats Good For Another Jacksonville... First Down.

by Bestjagfan on Mar 8, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

No salary cap doesn't mean no success for small market teams... it just means...

It’s just a less direct route that requires better drafting. If you can grab good players in the draft, you’ll own their rights for 6 years and not 4, so if you draft effectively, you could either hold onto your talent for longer periods, or you could trade said talent for more draft picks to other teams who don’t choose well.

It requires a diligent and remorseless GM who is ok with franchising a player more than once. Also, without a salary cap, I’m almost positive a team would be able to tender more than one player (i’ll look into this for you)… So either 2 franchise players, transition tags, 2nd round tender etc. This would make it even more difficult for a team to grab a player even if he did make it to six seasons with the team.

-Collin

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 8, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

by more than one... I meant a total of 2. As opposed to now where you can only use the one of the tags per year.

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 8, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks Bro

Thats Good For Another Jacksonville... First Down.

by Bestjagfan on Mar 8, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

The Whole Concept is Confusing

But I think I got a better grip on it. So would a good strategy for a small market team like the Jaguars be to just let players go and gather hordes of picks after their rookie deals are up? Then they could keep their teams incredibly young, while placing the franchise tag on core players, like a Quarterback or Middle Linebacker, Pro Bowl running back. And the large market teams like the Redskins, Cowboys, could give up draft picks for players who most likely are already in the twilight of their career, and not have a good draft.

Before I wasn’t a fan of no cap, but I didn’t completely understand how it would work. Now I’m waiting for it; because if the Jaguars approach it right, it could work in their favor. Thanks for the explanation, it really changed my look on the situation.

Thats Good For Another Jacksonville... First Down.

by Bestjagfan on Mar 8, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice article. it gets people thinking. That’s for sure.

by ajagsbeliever on Mar 8, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

I think the important

part of scouting in your own back yard is to know when a player will be over valued.

by Ewdtrey on Mar 8, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions

I have fears!

Here’s way: I have know a sport well, where are no salery cap: soccer. (please stay reading!) Now, Vic ays, there is soooo much talent in football here in America, so every team can find good players. Well nowdays, you can find good soccer players from South Asia to forgotten corners of Africa, from Eastern Europe to South Amerika or even in North America as well. So that would mean, that every team could find 3-6 very good players for itself. Right? WRONG! The most wanted title in Europe is the Champions League(it is looks like more and more the NFL of Europe!). And although there was no team, who win the trophy the next year after they won, in the last 16 usally you will find the same 10-12 teams, and in very last stages there is a rotation of 6-8 teams. How they do it? They buy the best players of the world for there team, price is no matter. They give huuuuge salaries to the top players. Yeah in every decade there is a surprise winner-ONCE/pro 10 years. Yeah the draft is veeery important, the only real hope the small market teams. But after the rookie contract expires, don’t you think, that the big market teams not wanna pay horrible salaries to the 3-4 key/very best players(I know it is not the best example, but look at the Haynesworth contract, I fear that is the future…) from a small market team like the Jaguars??? Only the loyality of that player could keep that player here. And this is a professional sport…
I have serious fears about the small market teams because of that, when the cap is going away. I hope Vic and you guys have right in the end of the day, but as Obi Van says “I have a bad feeling about this”

by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 8, 2009 9:07 PM EDT reply actions

Unlike soccar, without a salary cap a player isn't a free agent when his rookie contract is up.

Once his rookie contract is up, he’ll still have 1-2 years (depending on if he signed a 4 or a 5 year deal) of RESTRICTED Free Agency. Meaning that he can be tendered as a RFA (Like sensabaugh was tendered at a second round level. This means that if another team signed them, they’d have to give up a draft pick according to the assigned tender you give the player. 1, 1 and 3, 2, or two 1’s (those are the options for tendering a player). That means the big market teams would lose a draft pick and the small market team would get one. (I should just turn these 3 explanations into a post).

Meaning that it would cost the big market teams a potential player to sign your player…. This is ALL predicated on good drafting by the small market teams… If the small market teams can’t draft well, they’re screwed, hard.

The extra year or two you could get out of a player in RFA is another way of keeping them from leaving your squad. It really is a better deal for teams that draft well, regardless of their financial situation.

-Collin

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 8, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

OK,

I forget this, you have right. And this could be another help for the teams like the Jaguars. But the danger is still there in my opinion.

by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 8, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

The danger is definitely still there...

If we drafted like the Lions, and were penny pinchers, then I’d say we’d never be competitve… No salary cap means that unless you’re dropping money from helicopters, you have to be able to draft well…

We’ll see Jerry Jones, Al Davis, and Dan Snyder try to spend their way to a superbowl, but don’t think paying a guy 10 million more than another guy means he’s gonna play 10 million dollars better… If we draft well we’ll be fine… With Gene at the helm, I think we’ll be just fine in that department.
-Collin

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 9, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes please turn that explanation into a post

I’d love to hear this in more depth because it’s a little confusing, but I definitely want to fully understand it. Even this post helped me to better understand the money side of the NFL.

by Adam Stites on Mar 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Economics, English, and Psychology... Those are my areas of expertise...

Followed closely by Star Wars… :)

The End Is Nigh...

by silencecs on Mar 8, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You don't save money drafting big-school guys

If you look at the talent in the NFL, it doesn’t always come from the big schools. You are going to overpay for the big-school guys. You need to find players from small schools that turn out to be great players. Look at the stars like Jerry Rice, who came from Mississippi Valley State. You need to get the Tom Brady in the late rounds. Scouting players from FSU or UF will make you overspend for someone like Derrick Harvey when impact players like Chris Johnson are available later. Yeah…go ahead and scout these guys, but if you base your draft on them, you’ll end up in a financial hole with a bunch of busts.

by acedarney on Mar 9, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, don't scout guys like

Ed Reed, Warrick Dunn, Lawerence Timmons, Walter Jones, Peter Boulware, Fred Taylor, Hines Ward or any of the dozens of other stars who came out of those schools.

"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks

by Jonathan Loesche on Mar 9, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Every one of those...

are big name guys taken early in their respective drafts (other than Hines Ward). In a post-salary cap world, the Jaguars would not be able to afford those guys. They need to find the guys that the other teams don’t take early because of the school they went to. For every big name player that came out of these schools, a huge bust accompanied them.

by acedarney on Mar 9, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions