2008 Season Retrospective: Did injuries "Neg Out" the Jaguars?

by River City Rage on Jul 21, 2009 12:22 PM EDT in Meta-Jaguars Comment 35 comments

What explains the late season meltdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars?

With training camp so close you can almost smell the sweat on the blocking sleds, It's time for a (hopefully) final look back at the 2008 season, and what it means for the 2009 team. Two articles popped on my radar recently, each offering a "scientific" examination of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but with differing conclusions. K.C. Joyner, writing for the New York Times, looks at the injuries to the Jaguars offensive line and how it offers little excuse for the late season meltdown that sent the team on a rocketship toward rebuilding. On the other side, Football Outsiders, the statistics guru's of the NFL, determined that no team missed more time for injuries than the Jaguars, and that they should be ripe for a comeback in 2009.

Going back to Joyner's article, he uses a system that tracks how many time an offensive lineman was the key player in a run play, and the success rate of said lineman to come up with a percentage.

LT - Khalif Barnes - 88 POA runs, 66 POA wins, 75.0% POA win rate

LG - Uche Nwaneri - 134 POA runs, 111 POA wins, 82.8% POA win rate

C - Brad Meester - 72 POA runs, 62 POA wins, 86.1% POA win rate

RG - Dennis Norman - 147 POA runs, 125 POA wins, 85.0% POA win rate

RT - Tony Pashos - 143 POA runs, 123 POA wins, 86.0% POA win rate

Per his metrics, having three blockers with a POA win rate of over 85% is good, especially considering the injuries on the line. He correctly calls out Barnes as the "weakest link", though he distinguishes that his performance was not injury related. I would argue that having the players on the inside replaced would probably have a detrimental effect on his numbers, but that's for another post.

What I find problematic about these numbers is that they simply do not match the product that we saw on the field. Sure, these measurements show that the Jaguars offensive line was effective, but when statistics are vastly different than the "gut impression", it draws into question the very validity of the numbers. Statistics driven analysis is fantastic and something that the NFL has lacked, but there are some elements that require some work. One is in tracking the offensive line. Without game film like the coaches see, it's very difficult to follow the offensive line play. The camera follows the ball and the quarterback, and often hides the nuances of offensive line play. The end zone camera position gives us the best view of holes and cut back lanes, but the general broadcast camera position is horrible at showing who did what in a particular play. Until the NFL decides that fans and the media can have regular access to the end zone camera, it's going to be hard to create an accurate measurement.

But I'm seriously digressing from my point. David Garrard went from one of the least sacked and least mistake prone quarterbacks in 2007, to one of the most sacked in 2008. The Jaguars running game went from being an iconic factor in games to an afterthought, as David was forced into 3rd and long over and over and over again. We watched the games, we saw the line play, we saw the holes close, we saw Fred and Jones-Drew struggle, and yet we are supposed to believe that the statistics say that the offensive line was good, and that the Jaguars had a case of the funk and fell off the grid?

That's exactly what Joyner argues:

A. Management and/or the coaches were feeding this line of thinking to the announcers to take the heat off a team that had badly underachieved, and
B. This mind-set eventually made its way through to the team itself

Thought A came to mind because Jack Del Rio strikes me as a media-savvy coach who is good at helping to steer story lines in a direction of his choosing. The sense my scouting eye got is that the announcers bought into the injury story, but, unfortunately for Del Rio, so did his players. They kept hearing the press say that their injuries were the reason for the downfall and they might have ended up believing it. Deep down, I think the team knew that injuries weren’t killing the offense, but when the players heard the excuse being used elsewhere, they were free to jump on that bandwagon.

What he argues, in my opinion, is absurd. If, and that's a strong word, but if it's true that the team attempted to score a PR "win" by blaming the season on the injuries and that Del Rio let that mindset change the team from a "next man up" to a "quit and lay down", than Del Rio should have joined James Harris and left the team. But I don't buy it. Did the Jaguars have a boat-load of problems in the locker room? Absolutely. Was it because the team bought into it's own negitive hype? I just don't think so.

Statistics, as we know, can tell the same story with different conclusions: Take Football Outsiders, for example:

Jacksonville had a 1.9% DVOA, and their expected win total was 8.9 -- shocking, perhaps, but a function of their underlying performance. A 1.9% DVOA is pretty good: 26 other teams since 1994 (the earliest year we've calculated DVOA for) have had a DVOA between 1% and 3%. Of those 26 teams, exactly one won as few as five games: The 2003 Jaguars, who promptly won nine games the next season. The average team in that range won 8.5 games.

Furthermore, the Jaguars had a lot of injuries last year. By our injury metric, Adjusted Games Lost (which takes into account historical injury rates for a given role/position on the injury report and the player's role as a starter or reserve on the team), the Jaguars were the tenth-most injured team in the league last year. Injuries tend to regress to league average, which is another positive indicator for the Jaguars; a team's AGL has a .26 correlation with the change in wins in subsequent seasons.

So, which is it? Injuries or being psyched out?

I'd like to see what ya'll think of this. Why do you think the Jaguars fell apart last season?

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Chris - This is exactly the right question to ask

I wrote a post awhile back showing that pre-season line play was bad before the injuries. If you remember last pre-season, Miami had their way with us and Jack had to pump up the team to win a game against the Redskins (I believe). In short, we were in a funk last pre-season with the entire team there. I got shouted down at the time saying I didn’t understand pre-season, but I saw it and comented on it.

Having said that, I honestly don’t think injuries destroyed the season. I was there against the Steelers and saw a hard fought game. I saw a team fight back from injuries to piece together a decent mid-way mark. The complete collapse came when the reality of no Super Bowl sunk in. The total collapse came in the second half.

We had problems going into the year as pre-season showed us. We had a hill to climb with injuries early on. Then it all caved in. I buy in to the story that JDR blamed injuries as an easy answer. I buy in that the team just quit. But I do believe most of all, the team didn’t have it in them from the start. The Super Bowl hype, the easy camp, the denial of problems point to both Shack and Jack as misjudging reality.

Jack turned the Defense over to Greg and the Offense over to Dirk. Then he went off and enjoyed his new found fame throwing a lavish party. Jack checked out last year and put the team on auto-pilot. When it fell apart, it was too late for him to do anything.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Miami pre-season game really exposed the Jags - they were man handled and badly!!

I was also, one of the very very few sounding the “reality alarm”. I also got blasted that I didn’t know football from my rear end. Injuries did hurt this team, but they were not the reason for the demise. There were other reasons as well – a disaster of an off season RE: personnel moves for starters. No WR’s, No pass, and inability to sustain coverage were huge factor. The team was allowed to age and reserves promoted to starters didn’t pan out. Throw in the locker room sniping and you get a 5-11 train wreck. I agree with you that JDR fell asleep at the wheel.

by OGN on Jul 21, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Imagine...

If John Henderson had gotten a second hand around Big Ben, how would the season have changed?

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jul 21, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's my lasting thought of last season

the Steelers game crushed the heart of the 2008 Jaguars

football is emotional and after that game it just seemed that they couldn’t care anymore

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

But then they stayed strong and pulled out a win against Denver the next week. I think the Browns game was the beginning of the end in my opinion.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ditto... as the ball fell from Matt's hands, we saw both the season and his career fizzle.

We all knew then he wouldn’t ever be great… and that the season was through…

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 22, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

remember Vic's article

it was briliant

he knew it immediately

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by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting article.

While I can’t comment on the performance of the 2008 Jags [sorry I was watching my Lions] I have always had a problem when writers use statistics to try and infer soft [psychological] root causes or results. The two are very much at odds with each other. I think his conclusions are a huge stretch of the data which don’t seem to be supported by your observations.
What is the criteria for determining whether the particular lineman is the key player [ can there be more than one on the same run play?] and whether the lineman wins the play?

Very good post RGR!

by NorthLeft12 on Jul 21, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Joyner keeps much of his data behind a paywall, so getting the nuts and bolts of his methodology is difficult, but I can tell you this, there are very few running plays where one OL should be credited for the play. Even if one player makes the critical block, there’s four other guys (or TE’s or FB’s) that are also doing critical things that free up that player to make the block.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jul 21, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats What I Was Thinking

Just because Norman throws a good block on the defensive tackle doesn’t automatically mean that Meester got to the Mike linebacker and Pashos sealed off his defensive end. A lot of things can go wrong on a running play that the fan doesn’t see watching the tube.

Great Article, by the way. It’s good to see you back…

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 21, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And furthermore...

How good is the win at the line. Did they get 1, 5, 10, 40, yard or 1 yard TD? 100% win at 1 yard is not nearly as good as 50% win at 10 yards. It’s 5 times better. So, statistics lie, or say what ever you want. Besides, over 99.9% of the people that eat pickles are going to die.

by tigg75 on Jul 21, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, the amount of yards gained should not be the critical determinant

For example, a one yard gain on third and one is better than an eleven yard gain on third and sixteen. There must be a lot of observational data to make this judgement.

Who in the hell has time to watch all that film over and over?

Baseball lends itself to this kind of analysis much more than football. That being said I am still going to buy the 2009 FO Almanac. Looks like a good read.

by NorthLeft12 on Jul 22, 2009 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right. What if the Jags had beaten the Steelers?

I think both articles have a lot of truth to them (By the way this is one of the best posts on this website in a long time). You cannot discount the trouble that existed, chemistry wise, on the 2008 team. We have all been in work places where one new guy comes in and creates nothing but hate and discontent among an otherwise happy and very productive office. Well, I think something very similar happened here. Nobody, nobody had anything nice to say about Porter, he was a cancer on the team and he didn’t perform. Drayton Florence, who many people credited with hard work and being easy to deal with didn’t perform. Two new employees, who were paid big bucks and spread discontent in the locker room.

Everybody knows that Shack Harris made some terrible personnel moves in 2008 and the locker room issues. But, you cannot discount the injuries that plagued the team. I think individually either one of these issues would not have destroyed a season, but together they did.

by Kingfysh on Jul 21, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for the kind words

I’m back, and back in full force.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jul 21, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes you are - and it is good to have you back

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 21, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kalif Barnes

can anyone tell me how many penalties Barnes was rsponsible for as well as his sacks allowed total and if you knonw how many games did he start while in Jacksonbille thank you

"The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else."

by BRIANMULHALL on Jul 21, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Barnes

Totally disregarding my whole stats can say anything, this is further proof that Barnes sucked in the run game. He also disappeared at the ends of games and often kept his defender in front of him, but his back in David’s chest.

by tigg75 on Jul 21, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was being serious

not being sarcastic im really curious about the stats… i was gonna write a blog about him and mario henderson im a raiders fan

"The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else."

by BRIANMULHALL on Jul 21, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Talking about the Steelers..

Happy to see somebody took up the Joyner article, it made me wander..

When I first read it, the thing that first struck me was why Joyner would totally ignore how much pressure David was facing. His sack total doubled from 2007 to 2008. Now this can be for many reasons (nobody open, holding on to the ball, bad line play) but it should factor in when trying to describe a season with stats.

Anyway, in looking up David’s stats something new dawned on me. David was the 3rd most sacked in 2008 with 42. Guess who number two was.. Roethlisberger.

Actually Ben was worse than David in a lot of categories: Rating (80.1 vs 81.7), INTs (15 vs 13), Yds per Game (206.3 vs 226.2) and completions (59.9 vs 62.6).

So, if Ben is that bad and still wins a Superbowl, where we bumped out at 5-11, what does that say about the QB play? Definitely not what so many think, that we can blame it on them!

Actually this tells very clearly that, even though this is a pass-happy league, if you run the ball and stop the run, you going to go places.

Now, in saying that, there was no way we were going anywhere last season. We had no run game and the defense couldn’t stop anybody.

by Alxgarder on Jul 21, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice analysis ALX

Welcome to the site brother!

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 22, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by MoveThoseChains on Jul 22, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Exactly. David G really did get a lot of the blame. Look at the difference. Articles are written asking if David G is capable of starting in this league. Articles are written about Roethlisberger saying he is one of the leagues elite.

Roethlisberger had a defense. David G didn’t.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 22, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good story - Great comments...

I’m probably not as good analyzing a game as some of you guys, but I managed to be at the Cleveland Browns game last year and that looked to be the beginning of the end. After that game the confidence was gone.

I won’t be too hard on the Offense because I do believe injuries were a big part of the problem, but I’ll never forget how the Brownies were just converting 3rd downs with the run, and one fella in the stands looked back at me and said, “if Stroud was in there do you think they would have converted?” The secondary just killed us last year. With Florence’s fear to tackle (and I saw this in his frozen footwork) and Reggie Nelson lacking the weight for a hard bring down, it just hurt bad.

I have to say though, even when the offensive line went paper thin, David Garrard never gave up. He took his pounding and kept getting up. I was proud of him.

by Jaghomer on Jul 22, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes Yes Yes - and one addition

The Cleveland loss was the meltdown moment. Anyone who blames David doesn’t have sufficient intelligence worthy of listening to.

The thing that bothered me about the Cleveland loss was the third down play where the Jags were completely fooled on a play call and a 50 yard pass completion resulted. After that the team began to look more confused game after game right up to the Baltimore game where they looked like no coaching engagement was present.

I always come back to this, injuries did not cause stupidity and this team looked stupid in the last half of the season. A well coached team looks injured, restricted, but not stupid. The locker room problems between players gets highlighted, the coaching problems don’t. Clearly there were deeper coaching issues than has been revealed.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A big time AMEN on that!

by OGN on Jul 22, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im glad to hear Garrard get support

for last season. Im tired of hearing about how he regressed or took a step back from all the media. All the fans from BCC watched the games last year and we all saw the same thing. A guy scrambling away from pressure searching for someone, anyone to just get open. Does anyone know how many of those int’s he threw were on third and long? That would be an interesting stat to see. I blame last season on bad free agents, a busted up O-line, no pressure on the other teams QB and our secondary wiffing play after play. Garrard was a Spartan last year and I feel totally at ease with him being behind center this year. We may not win a lot of games this season but I think we will see a bunch of young WR’s catching passes over the middle and MJD and the RB Co. doing their thing so we can have those nice long drives. The longer the better. Keep the defense off the field.

by JagSoldier on Jul 22, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice post chris... I am on the side with the injuries.

You know where I stand… Injuries derailed this team, and if you think it was only the o-line, you’re dead wrong. MJD got dinged, Freddy T broke his thumb, Dennis N-Cut had back spasms. Matt Jones had soft tissue injuries and suspension, Jerry Porter had a fluke injury and hammy surgery. Troy (patron) williamson had soft tissue injuries. Mike Walker couldn’t stay healthy…. Anyone who says injuries didn’t derail the season is not looking at the whole picture.
I think we had a LB injury too, but I can’t remember who it was that Mike P came back in for towards the end of the season. Oh, and Rashean has said he was hurt some of last year too.

Bad signings and poor preperation hurt badly… but the injuries killed the teams chances.

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 22, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

d smith was injured

greg jones was injured
was scobee injured this year or last year, i forgot

podlesh was injured

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scobee

Had like a broken hand. He was making a tackle in the Cincy game.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 22, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Podlesh was injured???

I’m going to say it now and loud, Podlesh was a waste of a pick, 4 th round I believe. He stinks. I’m getting this out of my system so he can come back and prove me wrong. I dare him to be good this year!

by Jaghomer on Jul 22, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A waste of a pick is right

Say goodbye to him.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Instead of drafting punters in the 4th round you should get

experienced ones from free agency or later rounds. I’ll put the blame of shack for this one.

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"

by TheTealDeal on Jul 23, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is my thoughts...

Ok… jacksonville’s problems were both injuries and funk. i mean the shooting of collier was a big enough tradgedy but opening day lose another 2 offensive lineman thats a bummer. So yea that was a big part of it becasue for one IT TOOK US OUT OF OUR GAME PLAN!! We succeed passing by runnin … let me explain.. we were known as a team that could run the ball up anybodys throat WELLL our back up offensive line SUCKED. So our run game was an epic FAIL! usually when we run the ball teams stack 8 men in the box which opens up the pass game A LOT. well teams knew we had no O-line and blitz evry play and garrard couldnt even get rid of the ball with out getting hit 80% of the time. But jeez OUR ONLY STARTING O LINEMAN THAT DIDNT GET INJURED THE WHOLE SEASON SUCKS!! (TONY PASHOS) HAHA . So that explains our offensive trouble. Now for defense i believe it started 2 years ago when we got rid of stroud.. we couldnt put pressure on a peewee quarterback if we wanted PITTIFULL DEFENSEIVE LINE. secondary stand point was awful i hate the idea of brian williams playing safety not because he sucks at it nooo he was a good safety its just we had NO good backup cornerback to take his place. My oppinion is that we had great linebackers even though peterson had lockeroom issues he is still a hell of a player but now that hes gone were still stacked because durant moved to the middle and smith is playing weakside with ingram on strong and i wouldnt be suprised to see groves play some linebacker as well. Reggie nelson had a bust season nut i think he will pick it up next season.

to talk about our offseason decisions welll getting rid of taylor is ok cuz we have jones-drew and DONT FORGET THE BEAST GREG JONES hah i think thats ONE HELL OF A TANDEM myself and i like rashad jennings as a 7th round pick not too bad of a pick. getting rid of williams was a good decision but jones i like. even though he had offseason problems remember hes 6’5" runs a 4.4 40 and started to show catching ability not to mention his 39 inch vertical . but whats done is done now were stuck with short ass recivers but i believe mike thomas and mike walker are to have breakout seasons MARK MY WORD. holt is a good pickup although hes old he can help gararrd. I addressed the mike peterson issue earlier … not bad of a decision.

so to conlcude my long ass comment … i think that now the jags are where they want to be UNDER THE RADAR i expect some things coming from them that many dont. OH and about the steelers well THAT was the first time steelers ever beat jacksonville so jags left their hearts on the field after that they realized that if they didnt pick it up within the next game or so then just try and get a good pick..

by kywitzki on Jul 22, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs