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Top Ten Things the Jaguars need to do to be Great!

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Some teams emerge from the ashes quickly, others languish at the bottom for years.  Which way will the Jaguars go?  Here are my top ten things we need to see happen to get back in the playoffs.  I've also included my probability of seeing it happen in 2009.  Of course your crystal ball may be better than mine, so feel free to speak up.  If you see it like I do say it. If not, say it louder.  Either way, enjoy!

1. Andy Heck forms an Offensive Line that works together.  We have new people everywhere on the line and people returning from injury. How do you get through the evaluation of ability phase, the establishing of roles and responsibilities phase, the work together phase and finally forming a strong working unit? In my view Andy Heck is the man that has a chance to do it. Andy is the best coach on staff right now with probably the best raw talent to work with.  Probability of success - 88%


2. Mel Tucker can design a secondary scheme that Reggie Nelson and Rasheen Mathis can live in. This is my opinion, Rasheen and Reggie have strengths but also limitations. Rasheen needs over the top help so he can gamble. Reggie needs a simple assignment profile or he gets eaten by a good QB. Now add in new people Considine, Alexander and Derek Cox along with Brian Williams and Spoonie and you have a lot to settle down quickly. The good news is this is a motivated bunch but the talent may not be as good as the O-Line has. Tucker is also a risk. Probability of success - 70%


3. Receivers emerge and Mike Shula can coach David out of looking only at Torry Holt.  David had to be coached out of locking on to receivers and he did well when he trusted his group and his protection. If he has protection and he has people get open, David will come through. The problem is our receiving group is mostly based in rookies. If they go through a learning curve on how to get open, David will lock on Torry. I believe the Tight Ends will be more of a focus of the receiving game and I am hopeful one of the rookies receivers will make it. Receivers coach Todd Monken has his work cut out and we will see what capability he has. We have excused Reggie and Matt as not his fault and we are probably right to do so. I think he has the talent now. Probability of success - 78%

 

Star-divide

4. Maurice Jones Drew remains healthy. Without Maurice, the backfield threat vanishes unless Rashad Jennings comes up big. Maurice was made of iron his first year, but I have watched him get up slowly too many times in recent games and am not sure his style of hitting back isn't going to wear his body out. He is the man to key on for the defense right now and I see a real chance he goes down for a bit.  Probability he plays all 16 games - 50%


5. Jack Del Rio motivates in some fashion other than agitation. I used to be a big fan of Jack Del Rio but the more I watched last year unfold, the more I saw I didn't like. I think he checked out early last year and then came back waving his arms and yelling and the players saw the hypocrisy and wrote him off. I don't know how much loyalty he can call upon in the locker room and calling players out in public only goes so far. Probability Jack provides motivation - 40%


6. Defensive Line creates some push and creates chaos. Well Ted Monachino is our defensive line coach and longtime readers know I think he is the weakest coach on staff. He has no real background to stand on and no evidence of coaching or teaching ability. We are now placing our hopes on him and Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, neither of which established themselves as potential stars last year. We added Terrance Knighton in the middle and Jack is already calling out John Henderson. I am not feeling good about a strong defensive line. Probability of success - 30%


7. Linebackers turn in great play. Linebacker coach Mark Duffner has been highlighted as a potential defensive coordinator and why he wasn't promoted is beyond me. I think the linebackers have never been weak for Jacksonville and some years they were the team strength. This is an experienced and talented group and there is talk of a 3-4 alignment experiment along the way. I think it is a lock that we see good linebacker play this year and am probably betting on a pro bowl second team potential from the group.        Probability of success - 94%


8. Fans show up and encourage the players to be great. OK, season ticket sales are lagging, but the Jaguars still put Fannies in the seats in good number. The Jaguars were the 20th best attended football team in 2008. The Indianapolis game last year after the season was over had a loud and supportive crowd. At no time did this town give up on the Jaguars. The television audience is the third best local market in football. I don't for a minute believe this town quits on the team. Probability of fan support - 100%

9. Good Defensive and Offensive Play Calling. So we all know Jack Del Rio is the defensive coordinator. One thing I do believe, Jack is a defensive coordinator. With him calling the defense I think we will be a sane and stable defensive unit. I also believe Dirk Koetter can call Offensive plays to a moderately successful level. He blew open Arizona's offense and blew open the Jaguar offense not long ago. I don't think we are going to be bad in these areas. Probability of good play calling - 85%

10. Special teams put Jacksonville in good position both offensively and defensively.   It all starts and ends with special teams, the opening kickoff, the running punts back and pinning the opponent back. I never saw a more creative guy than Joe DeCamillis. The more I think about losing him and his accident in Dallas, the sadder I get. I don't believe in Russ Pernell and I don't think we will be better than last year. The real question is will we be good. I like the guys on special teams except Podlesh, and I like the runback ability we have. If Russ Pernell (I hate that name already) doesn't screw it up, we can be decent. Probability of success - 50%


So there you have it, my top ten list. I don't believe in special teams or the D-line or JDR as head coach. I do believe we have a good probability of significant improvement. .

  - Terry

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great job terry

very thought provoking

the main thought i have…

losing breeds negativity and blame for security purposes

I think if we win 8 games or more people will feel comfortable backing our players….

For instance, David—to me—is the same QB. He had less assurance of protection from his line last year and the wr’s were trash. He lost his number one go-to guy in e wilford.

I wrote something on Garrard a while back in which i stated that he needed to feel comfortable. He needed assurance. He had none last year. So a large amount of people, including the wide-ranging ignorant media who watched one, maybe two jags games in 2008 say that he failed and imply a very small chance of a rise. If he had thrown two less interceptions and two more td’s. Matt Jones catches “the tip” in cleveland, Big John pulls Big Ben down….we have a different scenario, but since the season was altogether a loss, well we, as fans, find reason to blame. David is just an example and i’m not saying you feel that or implying that your as cynical as Charlie Bernstein—who on last weeks scout.com show clarified that they are not his jags. It was just something that made me think.

Now that i have time im off to read your other post, and thanks for covering the financial matters. I appreciate not being ignorant.

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions  

one more thought, sorry

i remember reading on-screen at the Ravens game that Garrard was the number one QB hit in the league. This stat was outside of sacks.

Imagine whoever it is playing QB: the Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, VY (haha), anyone…if you are the number one most hit QB….your team will lose no matter if you throw for a “drew brees” amount of yards. Of course, you wouldn’t be able to dream about that much time to throw

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope you didn't think I wa down on David

I stand by him and his performance last year. He was coachable and when Mike Shula came he took off under good guidance. I think he will regain that form and do well. Was I really cynical about him?

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

no

as i’ve proved, i trap myself with words. i get too tunnel visioned and can’t dig out sometimes

I do not recall you specifically saying anything. Your the other Vic in my book. Us young guys gotta have someone older whose seen things happen.

you’ve watched football for much longer than me, what do you think about people blaming too much when it’s bad? does this happen a lot, or have i missed something?

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 22, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

What do I think about blaming when things are bad?

So go out to the beach and find some gulls and throw some food, they all go running afte it. Same with people who just read and mouth off without thinking. Throw out some bad stuff and they all follow along mindlessly. It has happened as long as I can remember. Then, when someone like Brett Farve gets the halo effect going, oh he can do no wrong. Great guy, a lot of interceptions, a lot of touchdowns, but not the peson the media praise makes of him.

Buddha said one thing… Don’t believe because others tell you it is true, test it and prove it for yourself.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like this article

If i had to add one more it would be probability of first round or as a whole the draft class being a success.

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"

by TheTealDeal on Jul 22, 2009 7:15 PM EDT reply actions  

#2,5,6 and a little bit of 10 scare me the most

I think our secondary is shaky
JDR is a “passionate” Def Cord at heart, imo.
D-Line will probably be the same till next year when i’m beyond excited about the DT Class
As long as we got Podleash nothing is right as rain.

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"

by TheTealDeal on Jul 22, 2009 7:20 PM EDT reply actions  

How about the probability Torry Holt's knees hold up... 40%

Or maybe probability that both Mike walker and torry holt’s knees hold up… 12%

Really cool piece, I like the format

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 22, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I think #6 has to be lower than 30%

Maybe It’s my anti Ted Monnachino stance… I’m sorry, but the only reason he got the gig was because he happened to coach Terrell Suggs in college. The guy didn’t make Suggs great, Suggs was just amazing on his own. Now Ted took over for one of the better D-Line coaches, who left with Mike Smith to go to the Falcons (Ray Hamilton), and our line has deteriorated since…

Doesn’t anyone think it is weird that Big John had his best seasons up until after 2006, when Ray Hamilton left. Since then BJ has missed practices constantly and his production has fallen. Coaching is a key ingredient to success, and Ted’s recipe needs some re-calibration.
-Collin

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 22, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Marinelli was our head coach here in Detroit

And our D Line quickly progressed deteriorated into the worst in the NFL. I am not sure why anyone would hire him for any job related to football after his disastrous performance in Detroit.

Sorry, I am a little touchy about Marinelli and the role he played [supporting for sure] in our last twenty-four games [1 and 23].

by NorthLeft12 on Jul 23, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

hasn't he vastly improved the D-line everywhere else when that is his only responsibilty

i believe it was at Tampa Bay before

right now, he’s at Chicago on just the D-line

If i was you, i’d feel robbed in every way

LateRoundPick.com

by Surteal on Jul 23, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought I hated Ted Monachino until now

After reading your coments Collin, I spit on the floor when I read his name. Oh oh, her comes Sandra… It’s all Collins fault, I swear….

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome article

these are my favorite types to read. Good work.

by JagSoldier on Jul 22, 2009 8:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Really good piece

I share a lot of your sentiments. The TealDeal had an excellent point with the draft class being successful. I believe that overall, they will – but the real payoff will come in a couple of years. Other thoughts – O-line improves, MJD does not hold up for all 16 games- he’s just to physical and he’s small, I don’t think he can hold up to all the NFL pounding. We establish a nice nucleus with new WR’s, D-line will probaly stink, LB play will be good (need to work on better blitzes however) and secondary improves but still gets torched (no pass rush). Lastly, the more I review JDR the more I come to the conclusion that he’s not the guy – I can’t get past his lousy divisonal record, the teams inconsistency from year to year, and last year’s melt down on and off the field.. He’ll get this year and probably next – but I agree with your assesment. Bottom line – the Jags improve and go 7-9.

by OGN on Jul 22, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm Being Cautiously Optimistic

I have a feeling this team can be special in a few years. I’m not all that sure about this year.

QB- I have full faith in Garrard. I think he performed admirably last season under his circumstances. Really his only sorry ass game was the Texans game. Give him a mediocre o-line and some receivers, he wins.
RB/FB- Jones Drew is a playmaker, no doubt. But I think we have to be cautious in his touches. I’d rather see him have 18 carries and 6 catches rather than 30 carries and 2 catches. Set up a backfield by committee and take advantage of the most talented position group on the offensive side of the ball.
Offensive Line- I see improvement, especially with Heck. Next seasons draft we need to take a guard or center by round 3 IMO. The tackles are set for the next ten years. Center and guard is good for now, but we can’t let age catch up.
Receivers/Tight End- Torry Holt should be ‘ole reliable for Garrard. I don’t think he just turns into a possession receiver, I still see some ability deep for Torry. Mike W is a rising player. A few weeks ago somebody hit the nail on the head and said Mike looks like a younger Reggie Wayne. Both have pretty good hands, decent speed, great route running, and good size. Their playing styles and attitudes are even the same. The best thing about this group is we could be set at this position as well for awhile. In three years, Mike is the 1st receiver, Dilliard is the 2nd. Thomas is the slot receiver, and Tiquan is the flex player, Devery Henderson type deep threat, except with better hands.

On defense, the only problem IMO is D-line. A defensive tackle really needs to be our first round pick next season. I think Harvey will eventually become a good LE once Hayward is shown the door, and Groves can play right side. Linebacker is great, and young, meaning a draft doesn’t need to be tilted that way for a while. The secondary is good for now. I heard somewhere, I think Jaguars This Week, that Considine was looking great. Alexander and Reggie should battle for the FS spot. Best man wins, straight up. Rashean still has game, and if Gene Smith is the wise emperor we all believe him to be, Derek Cox is the next Rashean.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 22, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions  

okay... 1,2,3,4,7,8,&10

You tackled the easy points. This is way below your caliber. I think anyone, any football enthusiest, can see the O-line kind of fixing itself this year. We paid for it, bought it, drafted it. It is a perfect blend of veteran and rookie that will, (hold on, work term) synergistically be at the top of the NFL this year… bank on it! Secondary can only improve and David can probably throw much better from a vertical view than a horizontal position, although he is not the best ‘look off man’ of the game.

MJD… I think it is his way (kind of like ‘ole Earl Campbell), burn up clock. Durant will be a monster, fans are great!, and Josh is money… It’s the other guy that has to prove himself this year.

Let’s really get it out – 5,6 and 9. especially 5 & 9. Doesn’t the head coah hire his own crew? Fore-tell brother.

Man… it’s gettin close… I’m antagonizing Terry.

by Jaghomer on Jul 22, 2009 10:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Ok - So when does an insult become a compliment

- Nice job challenging me and thank you.

Easy points below my caliber? I identify and call out almost every coach on the team, give my assessment of them and their upcoming challenge. If you were a new reader and a new fan, this would be informative. Obvious? Probably, but how much deeper than the obvious is needed? We are setting the fans up to watch the team with knowledge and sometimes the obvious is the truth. Sometimes sipping knowledge is a good way to injest it.

Now on to Jack Del Rio. Jack has had some of the best assistants in the NFL. Ray Hamilton, Mike Smith, Joe DeCamillis, Mike Tice. His reputation is catching up to him. Ted Monachino is no Ray Hamilton. Mel Tucker is no Mike Smith. Russ Pernell is no Joe D. It is a downward spiral Jack is in. Even losing the team last year, I am not sure he can get it back. I believe I am calling it correctly. He is, however, a linebacker and a defensive guy at heart. I do believe he has talent, as a defensive coordinator, not a head coach. This is a recent change of heart but one I arrive at with a lot of thought. Does the head coach hire his own crew? Yes – but only from those willing to work for him.

Below my caliber means you have seen and expect better fom me and I thank you for that. I do believe I laid a good foundation in this post from which to watch training camp and see if things come out as planned. Besides that, I like the pictures.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 22, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

One more point on JDR

He started this year off by airing the teams’ dirty laundry in public. I do not have a problem with him calling down a player. I do have an issue when it’s in public – keep that stuff in the office behind closed doors. Kind of starts the sniping right where it left off last year. I don’t think that can be healthy for the locker room.

I am also rapidly concluding that he’s not “the man”.

by OGN on Jul 23, 2009 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Something keeps ringing in my head...

I don’t know where I read it, but it was about Del Rio as a player during the player’s strike… that he pushed a guy or punched a guy or something like that. Do you think maybe JDR has problems handling confrontation? Is it maturity? I like a “tough guy image”, but only when it is “US against Them” not “Me against You”. JDR’s got a lot of work to do to repair his creditability amongst the players.

by Jaghomer on Jul 23, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

From The Times-Union By BART HUBBUCH Published Sunday, October 17, 2004 - JDR during the players strike 1987
According to reports in The Kansas City Star, when one of the replacement candidates accused Del Rio of slashing the tires of his car, Taylor stepped in and tried to break up the argument.

Del Rio reportedly called Taylor “a dirty scab and a lowlife,” then slammed the then-45-year-old retired player into the ground. Violence ensued for three minutes before Hackett could break up the fight, and Taylor came away with a bloodied face, the reports said.

“I couldn’t believe it was happening,” Hackett told The Kansas City Star at the time. “Here’s Jack and Otis Taylor, a Chiefs linebacker and a Chiefs legend, wrestling around there on the ground. It was unbelievable.”

Del Rio claimed he was defending himself, but Taylor later filed a police complaint and a lawsuit against Del Rio that was settled out of court two years later.

Del Rio wishes the subject would go away (“That’s old news that I don’t care to get into or talk about,” he said this week), but it remains relevant because Del Rio admits his fiery side is still a big part of his personality.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by Tkopa on Jul 23, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

nice work

plus, this article was picked up on ESPN’s AFC South blog. is that a first for this blog?

by abeaugh on Jul 23, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Not even close...

Sports Illustrated picks up our good stories, Yahoo too, and google news. Apparently ESPN too now. This blog gets a lot of coverage and is the top Jaguar site outside of the jags official site. This site is huge and really gets a lot of attention.

-Collin

The End Is Nigh... www.infowars.com

by silencecs on Jul 23, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lots of good opinions

coming from everybody. It seems like JDR is the biggest question mark on everyones mind. I admit that I find myself wondering sometimes if he is the guy for the Jags. I dont like the play calling even though I know that isnt all on him but he is still the head coach. All the bad press the locker room got last year didnt do him any favors either. I think his biggest problem is that he replaced a coach who won for us and he has yet to match Coughlins success. If this team doesnt get better with what Gene has been building then I dont see JDR lasting another two years.

by JagSoldier on Jul 23, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions  

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