Is 10-6 good enough to win the AFC South?

As Thanksgiving approaches, the Jaguars find themselves tied atop the division. Now, the question becomes how does the team stay on top of the division? It seems certain that whoever finished 2nd in the AFC East and North will grab the two Wild Card spots, meaning the only AFC South team to be in the playoffs will be the divisional champ. 

In a year when the Colts have regressed back to the pack, can 10-6 really be good enough to win the division? Let's see.  

Let's start with the Colts remaining schedule

Week Team Record
12 San Diego 5-5
13 Dallas 3-7
14 @Tennessee 5-5
15 Jacksonville 6-4
16 @Oakland 5-5
17 Tennssee 5-5

 

The Colts schedule does the team little favors the rest of the way. San Diego is making it's yearly 2nd half surge and will catch an Indy team that will be drained from another clash with New England. After that, they'll play a Dallas team that has finally figured out how to put all of their talent together on the field.

One thing that the Colts will have going for them is that all of their toughest games will be at home. Either way, with the lack of a support cast and pourous defense, it's very likely the Colts will drop 2 of the final 6 games this season.

The Titans schedule lines up as such

Week Opponent Record
12 @Houston 4-6
13 Jacksonville 6-4
14 Indianapolis 6-4
15 Houston 4-6
16 @Kansas City 5-5
17 Indianapolis 6-4

 

At this point, the Titans future will come down to Chris Johnson. If Rusty Smith ever needs to throw more than 15 passes in a game, then something will have gone seriously wrong. Houston and Indianapolis do have very porous run defenses, so relying solely on Chris Johnson isn't exactly a bad thing.

Still, without a viable passing attack, things could go downhill for Tennessee quickly.

Looking at the Jaguars remaining schedule, I do think it's very likely 10-6 can win the AFC South. However, that is based upon one main thing. The Jaguars will have to win at Tennessee and at Indianapolis. Winning those two divisional games will give the Jaguars either a head to head or better divisional record when the tie breakers come into play. Split the remaining four games, and the division is the Jaguars to lose.

  However, that is going to be easier said than done. The Jaguars have only managed to win in Indianapolis and Tennessee in the same season once (2004) since the AFC South was formed. The Jaguars have also never managed to sweep the Colts in a season.

Is it an impossible dream? Absolutely not. However, this team is going to have to avoid more letdowns like last week in order to make it happen.

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