Should the Jaguars go with a defensive end in the 1st round?
by Jonathan Loesche on Feb 11, 2010 8:05 AM EST
in 2010 NFL Draft
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PrintThe Jaguars had a league low 14 sacks last year, nearly breaking a NFL record for fewest sacks in a 16 game season. With many pundits already writing off 2008's draft class (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves) as busts, the "sexy" pick for analysts who actually do some homework before just giving Tebow to the Jags in the first has been defensive end. The two most often players have been Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan and USF DE Jason Pierre-Paul.
It would seem like a logical pick for the Jaguars. Playing in a division with Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning, the quicker the pocket collapses the better. However, should the Jaguars go with a defensive end in the first round? I don't think they should, for a couple of reasons.
1. With Reggie Hayward gone for the year, even when the Jaguars were playing the 4-3 last year, the Jags were relegated to really playing with 3 defensive linemen. Whoever was playing at the RE spot, whether it was Quentin Groves, Jeremy Navarre, James Wyche, or your grandmother, the Jaguars never had much more than a blocking sled at that position. It seems the Jaguars will resign Hayward, affording them the ability to have 4 competent starting defensive linemen again.
2. The Jaguars history with defensive linemen shows that they can get help there in later rounds. The two best defensive end picks in the franchise's history were Tony Brackens (2nd round) and Bobby McCray (7th round). Value can be found at a position that the DE position in any draft, and that is especially important to remember with so many going in the first round now.
3. The Jaguars still have a lot invested in Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. Sadly, that has to be taken in account regardless of anything else. Spending top 10 money for the 2nd time in 3 years on the defensive end position is throwing up the white flag.
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It's all about BAP
The Jaguars will pick a DE with the first round pick if he is the best available player at that pick. There is a distinct possibility that a defensive lineman will be the best player when the Jaguars pick this year.
Wide Receives and Defensive Ends are risky
in the first round. They bust more often positions do. Offensive line, linebackers, defensive back field yield much better odds of success.
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i agree here
Although, as with the DraftTek Mock, I would take a hard look at Dez Bryant. Just depends on whose around.
I watched a lot of Morgan vids on YouTube yesterday and my only concern at all is his hold up against the rush. It wasn’t flashy. The pass-rush was better than anything we have.
My only knock on McClain is long speed. I haven’t personally seen it. Have you, Terry?
Otherwise, McClain has the most instincts i’ve seen in the 3 years I’ve been paying close attention
LateRoundPick.com
My ignorant thoughts
Georgia Tech vs Iowa. The Iowa offensive line did whatever they wanted. Iowa was bad when passing, great when running. So my take is Morgan didn’t do enough to shut down Iowa to warrant a top 10 pick. I would rather have one of the linemen from Iowa who kept breaking open the runs to both side.
I saw one draft report on Dez Bryant that says he can’t see where Dez made a tough catch in traffic. When I watch video highlights, he is either standing there or has incredible seperation. I haven’t seen the NFL representation of his experience in college. I don’t know how he will do.
Rolando McClain I saw take Texas off the field personally. He knew where the play was going and got in position quickly. It was hard to get by him. I think he has some cover skills on Tight Ends which I would love to see happen for the Jags.
To sum up, I see a strong player in McClain, I don’t see the strength of Morgan, and I just don’t know about Bryant.
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Plus 1 Terry
If McClain is aviable Gene-Go gert him. DE can be pick up later (Austen Lane…)
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Feb 11, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
If he Has
Great separation, that means he knows how to get open. Don’t have to catch in traffic when you can get a good five yards of buffer.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
Word
But Terry said he is either wide open or standing still. If he is standing still and is open, he sat down in a zone and is helping his QB out.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
I understand that
what I mean when I say a “good” zone, I mean when people are hanging all over him. CB’s in the league aren’t always gonna be that easy to shake. Just wanna see him catch with someone on his back. Something I think Troy, Miller, and MSW all struggle with some. Nate Hughes is just horrible. I think Lewis and Mike Thomas are both pretty good at catching passes under pressure, along with Wilford.
I feel you
Mike Thomas really impressed me in that facet. I’ve seen a few clips of Bryant catching passes under pressure, I don’t think that is something he will struggle with. He seems to have pretty strong hands.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
Right now I say no
But it can change until April 22nd
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Feb 11, 2010 9:30 AM EST reply actions
I like Graham from Michigan.......
trade down and get him…….a true 4-3 DE
frankDUBZ aka Frank Silba
"You have to stand for something, or you will fall for anything" - Me
no
Get a DT who will apply pressure inside. Can’t go wrong with a DT. DEs are too risky in the first.
by Slvrgun on Feb 11, 2010 10:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions
DT are an easier selection to get right. - Agree
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Jags are caught in the middle, too far from Suh or McCoy, too high for Cody or Williams
by Jonathan Loesche on Feb 11, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Just right for Brian Price
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by Adam Stites on Feb 11, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
doubt it. He will fall
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I honestly think
If anything, he goes before the Jaguars draft him.
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I would bet on that
but because Suh and McCoy are already up there, I have a hard time seeing that many teams going after DT’s just for the fact that means that someone else at another position would need to fall for Price to be picked that high. But I do think he is a top 10 pick. People don’t realize how much of a playmaker he was in colllege. He’s also a true junior, which means he’s probably got more good years in him than the average player. He’s started all 3 yrs which means he wont be raw. He’s got the best of both worlds in terms of youth and experience. He’s not the run stuffer that Suh and McCoy are, but he’s probably the best pass rushing DT in the whole draft including them. That’s worth a top ten pick to me. He could just be the next Warren Sapp.
I really like Williams DT from Tennessee
He is my 3rd best DT and I believe that he wouldnt be a significant stretch at 10/11. I think he would be someone to push HEN and could open up the door to trading henderson for picks.
The problem with Cody and Williams
Is that they provide nothing new to this defense. They are just run stuffers that would be no help with the pass rush. A player like Price would compliment Knighton perfectly.
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I would rather
Have Oprah on the d-line that Terrance Cody. Cody is worthless. No pass rush, isn’t as strong as someone his size should be, and can’t move laterally.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
price is a late 1st rounder so unless we trade back, i see us snapping up a guy like brandon graham……
Price goes before Graham
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true, and oddly, those are my 2 fav players in this draft.
either price or grham ill be happy with. graham is another undersized guy who everyone doubts but 5 years everyones gonna be like wow he’s one of the best in the league at just getting to the QB
by harveyismyboy on Feb 11, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I was saving this for a post of my own, but here's a nifty link
An article from advancednflstats.com correlates DE performance with draft position using data from 1980-2000.
In short both number of pro bowl selections and sacks correlate, and decline with the round a guy is drafted in. There’s a steep decline, slight plateau, and another drop off after the 4th round:
However the confidence in any given pick being the best on the board isn’t great; note the variance, yet slowly declining best fit line from the first to 15th guy off the board:
What does this all mean? Well I’m not sure; at the same time it does say the odds are in your favor early, but it’s not impossible to land a guy later. I don’t think I have the time or know how to filter for “every down” vs. “pass rushing specialists”, so I won’t even speculate on the potential impact.
Similarly rather than argue the type of pick, for example comparing this graph to QB’s, I was going to present this graph as a part of an article arguing why we should trade down.
That idea gets crazy once you factor in the comparative value of our 10th according to crazy ESPN pick value chart; it’s worth like a billion 3rd and 4th round picks, not to mention our GM with the midas touch. ;)
I'd love for you do to a full post about this
Very intriguing stuff
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