Let History Be Your Guide For The Jaguars 2010 Draft

via www.mnhs.org

 


Just based on the limited scope of draft opinions found on this blog we are reminded that the NFL draft is nothing more than a glorified game of poker. Every player is a card yet to be pulled from the deck and every team the opponent of whom you have no idea what their strategy may be. You may have a good run from time to time but eventually you'll lose.

Do I even need to list the "sure things" of past drafts? Why bore you with such information. Rather, let's go the direction of something so incredibly unscientific and embrace it as a justified move based on undeniable logic.

Draft history.

Nothing screams "are you really going there" like citing who was taken at what spot in past drafts. We all know the quote "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Surely that works in the NFL draft as well. There are just certain things you don't do: like taking a guard or a line backer with the top pick. Or taking a QB or WR from Florida. Or a RB from Penn St.

Is  watching seven minutes of a YouTube video that is supposed to represent 3 or 4 years of a college players production really any better than looking to history? Absolutely, but is in no way near as fun. So that being said, let's look at what the 10\11 spot says from an historical perspective. Our time frame is from the first year the Jaguars came to be.

YEAR PICK TEAM PLAYER POSITION COLLEGE
1995          
  10 San Francisco 49ers J. J. Stokes Wide Receiver UCLA
  11 Minnesota Vikings Derrick Alexander Defensive Tackle Florida State
1996          
  10 Cincinnati Bengals Willie Anderson Tackle Auburn
  11 New Orleans Saints Alex Molden Defensive Back Oregon
1997          
  10 New Orleans Saints Chris Naeole Guard Colorado
  11 Atlanta Falcons Michael Booker Defensive back Nebraska
1998          
  10 Baltimore Ravens Duane Starks Cornerback Miami
  11 Philadelphia Eagles Tra Thomas Offensive Tackle Florida State
1999          
  10 Baltimore Ravens Chris McAlister Defensive Back Arizona
  11 Minnesota Vikings (From Washington) Daunte Culpepper Quarterback Central Florida
2000          
  10 Baltimore Ravens (from Denver) Travis Taylor Wide Receiver Florida
  11 New York Giants Ron Dayne Running Back Wisconsin
2001          
  10 Green Bay Packers (from Seattle) Jamal Reynolds Defensive End Florida State
  11 Carolina Panthers Dan Morgan Linebacker Miami (FL)
2002          
  10 Cincinnati Bengals Levi Jones Tackle Arizona State
  11 Indianapolis Colts Dwight Freeney Defensive End Syracuse
2003          
  10 Baltimore Ravens Terrell Suggs Defensive End/Linebacker Arizona State
  11 Seattle Seahawks Marcus Trufant Cornerback Washington State
2004          
  10 Houston Texans Dunta Robinson Cornerback South Carolina
  11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger Quarterback Miami (OH)
2005          
  10 Detroit Lions Mike Williams Wide Receiver USC
  11 Dallas Cowboys DeMarcus Ware Linebacker Troy
2006          
  10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart Quarterback USC
  11 Denver Broncos (from St. Louis) Jay Cutler Quarterback Vanderbilt
2007          
  10 Houston Texans (from Atlanta) Amodi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
  11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis Linebacker Ole Miss
2008          
  10 New England Patriots (from New Orleans) Jerod Mayo Linebacker Tennessee
  11 Buffalo Bills Leodis McKelvin Cornerback Troy
2009          
  10 San Francisco 49ers Michael Crabtree Wide receiver Texas Tech
  11 Buffalo Bills Aaron Maybin Defensive end Penn State

 

There is a lot to process here so let me pull out some points of interest to help guide us through this maze of information.

  1. Do not draft anyone from the University of Florida or Florida St. If you have to stay within the Sunshine State, go with UCF or Miami.
  2. You're better off with the 11 pick. Apart from Terrell Suggs there isn't a real standout at 10. Dunta has been OK and the jury is still out on Crabtree and Mayo. With 11, however, you have Tra Thomas, Daunte Culpepper, Dwight Freeney and Ben Roethlisberger.
  3. If you go Pac-10, go to the state of Arizona. Suggs (Arizona St) and Chris McAllister (Arizona) are winners. Mike Williams (USC), J.J. Stokes (UCLA), Matt Leinart (USC) and Alex Moden (Oregon) are not.
  4. If you go offense, go QB. You have better odds.
  5. Don't go WR for any reason.
  6. Need to go defense, the odds are against you if you go DB.
  7. Your best bet is LB.
  8. If you run a 3-4 defense you're probably going want to stay on the defensive side of the ball but if you must look to the offense, go QB.
  9. If you run a 4-3, however, there isn't much hope either way.
  10. That being said, if you've had multiple picks you historically want to be the Ravens.
  11. Being the Saints or 49rs is a negative, specifically if your the 49rs and picking WR.
  12. If you're getting the pick from someone else then go QB.
  13. Most AFC teams will pick at 10 but even if they are at 11 the prospect of succes isn't good unless you go QB.
  14. However, no one ever picks a QB in the 10 slot.
  15. Unfortunately your regional location will not offer any statistical advantage but if you're on the East Coast go LB.
  16. Jacksonville has never drafted in either spot so they have no history.

Since the Jaguars run a 4-3, are on the East Coast and are an AFC team (and that is only taking a few conditions into account) they're probably going CB or tackle (offensive or defensive) which doesn't bode well. But the good news is they know the historical mistakes and maybe will learn from them. That being said, history tells us that for the Jaguars to be successful they must pick Rolando McClain. Unless they pick at 11.

- Brian Fullford

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