Just based on the limited scope of draft opinions found on this blog we are reminded that the NFL draft is nothing more than a glorified game of poker. Every player is a card yet to be pulled from the deck and every team the opponent of whom you have no idea what their strategy may be. You may have a good run from time to time but eventually you'll lose.
Do I even need to list the "sure things" of past drafts? Why bore you with such information. Rather, let's go the direction of something so incredibly unscientific and embrace it as a justified move based on undeniable logic.
Nothing screams "are you really going there" like citing who was taken at what spot in past drafts. We all know the quote "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Surely that works in the NFL draft as well. There are just certain things you don't do: like taking a guard or a line backer with the top pick. Or taking a QB or WR from Florida. Or a RB from Penn St.
Is watching seven minutes of a YouTube video that is supposed to represent 3 or 4 years of a college players production really any better than looking to history? Absolutely, but is in no way near as fun. So that being said, let's look at what the 10\11 spot says from an historical perspective. Our time frame is from the first year the Jaguars came to be.
There is a lot to process here so let me pull out some points of interest to help guide us through this maze of information.
- Do not draft anyone from the University of Florida or Florida St. If you have to stay within the Sunshine State, go with UCF or Miami.
- You're better off with the 11 pick. Apart from Terrell Suggs there isn't a real standout at 10. Dunta has been OK and the jury is still out on Crabtree and Mayo. With 11, however, you have Tra Thomas, Daunte Culpepper, Dwight Freeney and Ben Roethlisberger.
- If you go Pac-10, go to the state of Arizona. Suggs (Arizona St) and Chris McAllister (Arizona) are winners. Mike Williams (USC), J.J. Stokes (UCLA), Matt Leinart (USC) and Alex Moden (Oregon) are not.
- If you go offense, go QB. You have better odds.
- Don't go WR for any reason.
- Need to go defense, the odds are against you if you go DB.
- Your best bet is LB.
- If you run a 3-4 defense you're probably going want to stay on the defensive side of the ball but if you must look to the offense, go QB.
- If you run a 4-3, however, there isn't much hope either way.
- That being said, if you've had multiple picks you historically want to be the Ravens.
- Being the Saints or 49rs is a negative, specifically if your the 49rs and picking WR.
- If you're getting the pick from someone else then go QB.
- Most AFC teams will pick at 10 but even if they are at 11 the prospect of succes isn't good unless you go QB.
- However, no one ever picks a QB in the 10 slot.
- Unfortunately your regional location will not offer any statistical advantage but if you're on the East Coast go LB.
- Jacksonville has never drafted in either spot so they have no history.
Since the Jaguars run a 4-3, are on the East Coast and are an AFC team (and that is only taking a few conditions into account) they're probably going CB or tackle (offensive or defensive) which doesn't bode well. But the good news is they know the historical mistakes and maybe will learn from them. That being said, history tells us that for the Jaguars to be successful they must pick Rolando McClain. Unless they pick at 11.
- Brian Fullford