Big Cat Country 2010 Trade Value Chart

by Adam Stites on Feb 18, 2010 4:51 PM EST in 2010 NFL Draft

During the draft, trades between picks are made according to a value chart that determines a value for each pick. For example, a team wanting to trade up 3 spots to get a player would first need to determine how much value they will be gaining and what they should offer their trade partner as compensation.

The only trade value charts available to fans have been online and they are all very similar, if not identical. With changes in the NFL over the last few years, specifically in the rookie salaries and depth of rookie classes, this generic chart has become outdated. A good example of this was a trade between the Colts and Dolphins in the 2009 Draft. The Colts traded up to the 56th spot and gave the Dolphins their 61st and 165th spots. According to the generic value chart on the internet, the Colts acquired 340 value points with the 56th pick and gave up 292 for the 61st pick. To compensate for the 48 point difference, they added the 165th pick; however, that pick is only worth 25.4 in the old chart. Why would the Colts offer that pick and why would the Dolphins accept when the Colts had the 127th pick worth 47 points available for trading?

In fact, according to the old chart the teams trading up won their trades 7 out of the first 8 times in the draft. This obviously indicates that the higher picks have been devalued in recent years.

What I set out to do was create a chart that more closely represented the values of the picks according to the general managers. I took draft day trades and adjusted the chart values to make the lopsided trades such as the Colts/Dolphins trade more even. So here is the Big Cat Country 2010 Trade Value Chart and what I undoubtedly consider to be the most accurate chart available to fans:

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Comments

Wow.

You must have put a lot of hard work into this chart. Thanks – it will be a really big help in the coming weeks and months.

by alwaysforgiven821 on Feb 18, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions

Sweet

Nice work man.

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by Bestjagfan on Feb 18, 2010 5:21 PM EST reply actions

Big rec on this

Would love to hear more detail on how you threw this together.

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by Brian Fullford on Feb 18, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions

I actually did one last year

It definitely wasn’t as good as this one, but I kind of had an idea for what I was shooting for going into it.

What I did was take the chart from online and put it on excel. Then I took the 11 trades from the 2009 Draft that didn’t include players or future picks in the trade and plugged them into the chart. I made it so that when I changed a value in the chart it would update the values in the trades.

At that point I just tried to lower the values of the earlier picks and raise the values of the later picks with the goal of making the 11 trades closer to even. In this chart all 11 picks are closer to even than the old chart and there aren’t any funky increment changes. Here’s the old chart, take a look at picks 18-22 for what I mean by funky increments.

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by Adam Stites on Feb 18, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

trade down!

by alsonot on Feb 18, 2010 7:59 PM EST reply actions

I will trade you a my old socks for a copy of this chart

by durst on Feb 18, 2010 9:17 PM EST reply actions

?????

Although I appreciate your effort in creating this chart, I don’t find it accurate towards the top end.

What it is saying is that a first or second pick is as valuable as 4 first round picks at the bottom of the round. Not so…. Plenty of top pick busts to prove that point.

To prove the accuracy or inaccuracy of a chart, one should apply it to all the picks within the last four years (average contract) and make the determination based on playing time, performance (stats), longevity, cost/value, position premium, seats sold/TV ratings, etc.

You’ll find that top 10 pick are highly over valued.

by LuckyPriest on Feb 18, 2010 10:05 PM EST reply actions

You're missing on the point of the chart

It’s a trade value chart, not a chart that places values on the picks themselves. It is a guideline for teams to trade picks. For a team to trade up from the 10th pick to the 1st pick they need to provide the team they’re trading with somewhere around 1400 points of compensation. Is it worth it? Probably not, for the reasons you listed. That’s why you don’t see trades for the top 3 picks in the draft. The cost to obtain the pick isn’t worth the value that it brings.

The trade value chart was a concept created by Jimmy Johnson and I actually devalued the value of the top end of the first round in my chart.

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by Adam Stites on Feb 19, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions

Not so.

Of course hindsight is always 20/20 and non of us have a crystal ball. The purpose of a trade value chart is to project and/or predict the average pick value for the position itself.

Not enough Mannings and Troy Aikmans at the top of the draft make up for all the underachievers, money suckers and busts picked in the same spots.

As far as Jimmy Johnson and the chart are concerned… Jimmy is a fair coach but his chart wasn’t responsible for winning…

Jerry Jones said it best one night in front of a reporter when he drank a little to much Whiskey. Talking about Jimmy Johnson he said that “any one of 100 coaches could have won a super bowl with all the picks he (Jerry Jones) made.”

If I remember right, trading Herschel Walker to Minnesota netted them the most and started the picking spree.

I do like your chart and value your time and intelligence in putting it together, I just recognize that the numbers don’t lie.

Watch the way Bill Belichick trades away players for picks every chance he gets and wheels and deals in the draft. He would never use your numbers when trading up into a top pick. Boy do I loath the patriots but he is a master at the art of building and maintaining a winning team……

by LuckyPriest on Feb 21, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

Belichick uses my numbers to an almost exact amount

Just in the downward direction.

I agree that the top of the chart is overvalued, but my chart depicts the values that the teams are using, right or not.

I didn’t do this as an opinion piece. All the numbers are supposed to mirror the values of the trades that teams actually do.

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by Adam Stites on Feb 21, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.... Good work.

by LuckyPriest on Feb 22, 2010 2:44 AM EST up reply actions

You keep questioning

the validity of the chart, instead of just seeing the intention of the chart.
Basically, the chart will help you figure out what trades are more likely to happen, based on history(Not intelligence), if teams so desire to trade picks.

by Ewdtrey on Feb 21, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions