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The Effect of the Super Bowl and the Postseason on the Draft

Every year the postseason and, even more so, the Super Bowl have an effect on the value of certain positions in the draft. Positions will become trendy and will be subsequently overdrafted by teams. Rather than recoup the full value of their pick, teams will reach for a player that will hopefully make their team more like the teams that were successful in the playoffs. 

The 2006-07 Colts were carried by a terrific offense, but they were afterthoughts for the Super Bowl due to a horrible run defense that had been exposed in the worst way by the Jaguars in a 44-17 drubbing. However, when the postseason came the Colts defense transformed due mostly to the return of safety Bob Sanders. Instantly the Colts defensive woes disappeared and it was actually their defense that carried them to a championship. 

So which position was overdrafted most that April? Safety. Draft busts LaRon Landry, Michael Griffin, Aaron Ross and our very own Reggie Nelson were all taken in the first round in the hopes that they could have the impact that Bob Sanders had for his defense. The only safety taken in the first round of this draft that has had success at the level expected of a first rounder has been Brandon Meriweather.

Star-divide

In 2007 the Patriots dominated the NFL with a passing attack that could not be stopped. They won every game that season, all the way until they faced the Giants in the Super Bowl. The pass rush of Strahan and Tuck held the Patriots to only 14 points allowing the Giants to win in dramatic fashion.

The trendy draft pick in the 2008 draft was instantly the defensive end position. Chris Long, drafted 2nd overall, has been good for the Rams, but he has not played up to his draft expectations. Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey and Lawrence Jackson rounded out the first round picks at defensive end. It's hard to argue that any of those 4 are worth the value invested in them.

The 2008 postseason was headlined by the outstanding play of Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald. He appeared to be unstoppable, tallying postseason records in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Although the Cardinals didn't win the Super Bowl that year, Fitzgerald became a household name and the receiver position became a hot commodity.

It's a little premature to judge the wide receivers as overdrafted or not, but what can be noted is that 6 first round picks were used on wide receivers in 2009. Compare that to not a single first round receiver in 2008 and it's not a stretch of the imagination to say that teams may have been drafting these receivers earlier than they should have been drafted. 

So that brings us to the 2010 NFL Draft and how the 2009-10 postseason and Super Bowl XLIV may have affected it. Two positions come to mind. First, the quarterback position, but that position is overdrafted every year, so to say that the Peyton Manning-Drew Brees duel will affect the draft position of Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford is probably off base.

The second position that comes to mind is cornerback. Tracy Porter's interceptions in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl were both monumental plays in the games. However, even more influential was the play of Darelle Revis. Revis Island became a well known place for top receivers to die. Although the Jets didn't make the Super Bowl, the influence of Revis on the field was undeniable. In the Jets' loss Peyton Manning hardly looked to the side of the field Revis was on and attacked Dwight Lowery play after play. 

Perhaps Joe Haden is the next shutdown corner and other cornerbacks belong in the early rounds, but the Jaguars and Gene Smith should be careful not to fall into the trap of picking the trendy position rather than the best available player.

- Adam Stites

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Great job

I understand the points you give. I can relate to them because the same thing happens in Fantasy football drafting.

"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.

by TheTealDeal on Feb 8, 2010 8:37 PM EST reply actions  

Nice

Tight work, Stites.

Vae Victis!

by viator on Feb 8, 2010 8:45 PM EST reply actions  

I gotta go with the Colts....

…Even though they lost the Super Bowl, they’re still the winningest team of the decade. For them, it’s only translated into one championship, but would you rather have their record or ours? The reason they are so successful is because they get down to the business of evaluating talent and not caring what everybody else thinks is the trendy pick. I hope Gene isn’t up there listing all cornerbacks at the top of his draft board because a cornerback picked off Peyton to seal it. I hope he realizes that the Saints defense as a unit stepped up. I hope he and Wayne saw that Gregg Williams wasn’t to blame for this disaster of a defense, but it was the lack of talent up and down the roster. If they’re serious about winning the division, they should really start acquiring some real talent. Not practice squadders.

by moufpuncha on Feb 8, 2010 8:45 PM EST reply actions  

I think Haden

Is headed to the Staph Pound. What about Don Carey? He may turn out to be a player for us…what do you know about him?

Vae Victis!

by viator on Feb 8, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Does anyone?

I think it takes a Norfolk St fan to really tell you about Don Carey. I haven’t seen him play much and there’s not a whole lot out there on him. Gene sure fell head over heels for him, though.

by moufpuncha on Feb 8, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know...

Gene certainly spun the Browns on their pointy heads by snagging him, didn’t he? That might mean something.

Vae Victis!

by viator on Feb 8, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

When I was writing this

I was never really concerned that Gene Smith would be the one to take the trendy pick. I was more making an observation.

"I just love the Jaguars. Thereeee great! Wow look at the Jaguars almost won the games to the Super Bowl XXXI!" - 2nd Grade Journal entry
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by Adam Stites on Feb 8, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

A good article...

….and you’re right about the trend. i was just saying I hope Gene isn’t like that.

by moufpuncha on Feb 8, 2010 9:07 PM EST reply actions  

Nice Read bro

The defense just needs a talent boost. You aren’t going to make plays with a pedestrian squad like we fielded this year. Henderson needs to be traded, Harvey needs to step up, and Knighton is on the rise. The defensive line could be set for awhile with a few good drafts.

I love our linebackers, but Clint Ingram has got to go. We need a playmaker in the middle like Jonathan Vilma. Vilma is fast, plays sideline to sideline, and can make a tackle for a loss, and on the very next play break up a 25 yard pass down field.

The secondary needs safety help, that goes without saying. I think Drayton Florence would have been a smart keep, so Tyron Burntenridge didn’t have to get shamed by T.O.

I don’t care about being the top ten defense in the league anymore. Turnovers is where its at. Thats what wins ball games in the end… damn, I’m falling for the trend. Ha

P.S. Nobody makes it off Revis Island

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 8, 2010 10:25 PM EST reply actions  

True Dat

Week 4 he would have sacked himself like a douche bag.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 8, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions  

vilma was all over that damn place last night....

i just don’t see a world beater linebacker on our roster…. I do think that the ala backer would be an upgrade, but, i believe that d line and secondary are more important thi draft… Tucker needs to put his imprint on this defense…

by mattarne on Feb 9, 2010 1:28 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree

We need a talker. I don’t care what position it is, but someone who maybe gets a few fines here and there. Lays a hit everyonce and a while. Every successful defense has at least one, if not more.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 9, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Drayton Florence?

Good riddance to that guy, he was consistently terrible for an entire season plus he was ridiculously expensive.

I think T-Brack still has some potential. He was more than solid against the run and held his own for the most part. He had a good game against T.O. until that one blown coverage which was not completely his fault. I wonder if he could switch to safety?

Knighton could be an elite Linemen before long. He’ll be the anchor in the middle for a long time. I wouldn’t be against trading Henderson as long as the price is right. Same goes for Nelson and Harvey but I don’t think we could get much out of either of them.

by rusty904 on Feb 10, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, Drayton Florence

Name a player on the defense, besides Rashean Mathis, who had a good year that year.

T-Brack is a player I like, in the nickel role. He doesn’t have the skill to play outside for extended periods of time, such as a game. I want him on the field, just not outside. And yeah, that was his fault. Zero coverage, which means no safety over the top and straight up man. I agree there was no pass rush, but yeah, it was his fault. He got burnt.

I like Knighton, but I don’t know about anchor. I don’t use that word as loosely as others. Maybe, but I’m not selling out with that idea yet.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 10, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you seriously labeling Nelson as a bust after only 2 1/2 years?

I guess Sanchez and Stafford must be busts too seeing as neither posted a rating over 65.

by Slvrgun on Feb 9, 2010 9:58 AM EST reply actions  

Well the common thought is give them 3 seasons.

So, yes I’m seriously labeling Nelson a bust. I hope he can turn it around, but can you honestly argue that he was worth the 1st rounder spent on him?

"I just love the Jaguars. Thereeee great! Wow look at the Jaguars almost won the games to the Super Bowl XXXI!" - 2nd Grade Journal entry
Follow me on Twitter

by Adam Stites on Feb 9, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

well i think

that the fact that it he regressed from year one, would signal bust

by jags2732 on Feb 9, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Nelson

Isn’t worth a third. Time to trade him while he still has an ounce of value.

I agree, I have him as a bust. I’d love for him to prove me wrong, but for some reason I don’t see that materializing.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, some of our players do need a new team. They don’t fit, aren’t the best, etc. It’s not all lollipops and rainbows.

Sean Jax Beach Bum

by cuffs007 on Feb 9, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

Mike Griffin was a pro bowl safety and has been dealing w/ a lot of inuries, def not a bust

by JagzCTKID on Feb 9, 2010 5:23 PM EST reply actions  

Laron Landry

And Aaron Ross are both pretty good players as well.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 9, 2010 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

So does that mean that the point of his article was wrong?

2007 Aaron Ross was listed, and still is, as a Cornerback.
2008 You missed Kentwan Balmer at #29. So far an underachiever too.
2008 Eight OTs were drafted in the first round. That is a high number. Any SB impact there?

I guess I would ask how you determined that they were “overdrafted”? Were you comparing to some statistical average for first rounders by position? Did you look at the pre draft rankings of players and determine that those positions moved up the most as compared to other positions? Some other reason?

I guess the whole idea that NFL organizations are impacted that much by a few individual performances in one game is a little wild to me. These are generally intelligent, knowledgeable, and highly paid people that should not be making decisions off the cuff like that. It sort of goes against the whole idea of being competent.

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 10, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm guessing your asking

Socal this and not me. If you are, I’d be happy to take a stab at your question(s). I just can’t quite tell.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 10, 2010 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm

Pretty much in the same boat with Socal on this one. I was just saying I think Aaron Ross is a nice corner who was forced to play free safety this year because of injuries. And Laron Landry has been playing out of position his entire career since the death of Sean Taylor. They made him play FS when he was drafted to play SS in the box in Gregg Williams 46. If they ever get a cover safety, he could maximize his potential.

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Feb 12, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Definitely wasn't as scientific as that

I just kind of eyeballed it. The way I determined them as overdrafted was by looking at their performance in the NFL. Like you said about Balmer, I just looked for underachievers.

The theory was that if all these underachievers of the same position were drafted in the first round, then teams may have just been hopeful to make themselves like the teams that were successful in the playoffs. That’s basically what I meant by overdrafted. Pre-draft rankings didn’t factor in to this.

It’s just a theory after all.

"I just love the Jaguars. Thereeee great! Wow look at the Jaguars almost won the games to the Super Bowl XXXI!" - 2nd Grade Journal entry
Follow me on Twitter

by Adam Stites on Feb 10, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks SCS I was just wondering.

The Safety observation is dead on, as there have been a few years, last year for instance, when no Safeties were drafted in the first round. 2008 only had one; Philips at pick #31, the last pick in the first round that year.

by NorthLeft12 on Feb 11, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

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