With the 10th overall selection, the Jaguars pick...
by River City Rage on Mar 6, 2010 11:41 AM EST
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Print[Note by River City Rage, 03/06/10 11:57 AM EST ] EDITED: Because apparently I don't know how to read. Thanks Zoltan for keeping me on point.
A bunch of tough calls here. C.J. Spiller looks enticing, but at the same time it's a Running Back, and I believe there are always RB's later in the draft. I'd use C.J., of course, to try and trade back, but that's not happening here. Dez Bryant is probably the physical talent at the 10 spot, but he's a wide receiver and reeks of "diva", something that I can't see Gene Smith doing.
That leaves us with two options, in my opinion, Cornerback Joe Hayden out of Florida, Safety Taylor Mays out of USC, and Defensive End Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech. Joe's knocked for his speed, Taylor is knocked for his ability to turn physical gifts into on the field performance, and Derrick Morgan, who has his flaws, but is probably the best "Jaguar" pick available. I feel like you've done a good job drafting when you're not completely satisfied. If you are really happy about your pick, you've probably reached. Is this perfect, no, but I think Morgan and Harvey would be a great tandem, I think Morgan would be the guy who "cleans up" the pressure that Harvey brings. Harvey can get pressure, but there's not the guy on the other side who makes the Sack. Morgan, I think, would be that guy.
BTW, is anyone really sure of Mays time? I saw a pretty compelling video that he's faster than his "official time". I'd love to hear a good argument for taking him at that slot.
So, despite reservations, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Derrick Morgan with the 10th overall pick. I like his size, I like his play, and I think the upside is there.
Here is a 9 minute video of Morgan's highlights and lowlights.
If I were to reach here, I'd skip the Hayden and Mays and go for Earl Thomas out of Texas at Safety. Then I'd tie Reggie Nelson to a chair in the film room (clockwork orange style) and pair the two together in the backfield.
Your thoughts?
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Intersting pick Chris
Haden is already off the board; Cleveland took him. De is a need(although if the Kampman deal is done; Gene must not hurry at all.
The problem with Morgan is the Orange Bowl. If the Iowa O-line could make him a noon-factor; every NFL team can. The pick is logical; but I not like it 100%
The other good news is I have 15 minutes left to make Denver’s pick. Just like in real time….
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 6, 2010 11:45 AM EST reply actions
Edited.
Thanks Zoltan!
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by River City Rage on Mar 6, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I'M glad I help you out
Do you not even considered Rolando McClain? Jags searching a new MLB. He is a very gifted LB. Or do you think 10 is a reach for him?
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 6, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Sideline to Sideline Speed
I’m with Vic and his concerns about McClain not having the quickness to make the play. I could be wrong though, he was in my head, though I see a 3-4 team taking a serious look at him (I’m looking at you Kansas City, you with your tendency to reach for players that fit your defense)
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by River City Rage on Mar 6, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
I still hope
The Jags pick will be Haden/McClain/Spiller/ Dan Williams – Trade down…
That Iowa game.. I cannot forget how nonfactor Morgan was there….
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 6, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'm curious
Whats your reasoning for Dan Williams at the 10th?
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
Driver of the "Cut Reggie Nelson" Bandwagon.
Winner of the 2010 Chad Pennington Award
Brian Price
is much better for this D than Dan Williams. If Price was at the Senior bowl he would’ve made everyone else look like boys.
Actually..
One of the teams that I had pictured looking at McClain were the Jets. A bit high at 10 for them to trade up, but I know they are looking for quick help at the LB position. OLB is what is focused on, but who wouldn’t take McClain over most of the OLBs in the draft? Speed might be an issue… anyway, I thought that they might look at trading up for him if he feel between 10-12. Maybe. Price might be too high, though.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Their ILB's
are pretty good, over there with the Jets. In fact the no name guy is better than Bart Scott.
David Harris is no slouch either
127 tackles (82 solo), 5.5 sacks, 3 pass defensed, 2 picks and 2 forced fumbles.
He’s not flashy, but he’s a hell of a solid player.
Ignore the hype; look at the results.
JPP = Biggest Bust Potential in the draft, if only because everyone considers drafting him in the top-10?
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Anyone who is picked in the first round needs to come n and make an inpact right away. Please let’s stick with BAP regardless of postion. Personally I am no sold on neone who they are projecting to go top ten so let’s trade down and get a decent player that won’t break the bank
by jesusjagfan2009 on Mar 7, 2010 5:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Why not.
The game has changed, you can’t have enough talent at DE. Besides, Aaron may take a little while to be ready to take the field with the ACL.
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by River City Rage on Mar 6, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Michael C Wright wrote minutes ago vvia twitter
Jags want at least 2 DEs. Even if we sign Kampman; HayDay can be brought back as well plus 1 DE can come (I think about my guy A. L.) via draft
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 6, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Boom.
Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!
by River City Rage on Mar 6, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
...
Everyone is bringing up Kampman because it’s been reported that he is meeting with Jacksonville
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
I would have been interested in a comparison between JPP and Morgan.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Mar 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST reply actions
WHY DOES EVERYONE KEEP BRINGING UP KAMPMAN!!!!!!
Gene Smith will not bring in Kampman. The broken up beat up DE/LB will go somewhere, play average and get paid a lot more money than he will ever make in Jacksonville.
I don’t really agree with this pick. Even though RBs can be found late in the draft, truly elite ones are found early. I don’t like the idea of giving some other team a dual threat like CJ Spiller. Derrick Morgan is good but he ain’t top 10. Jason P-Paul is much better but I can’t remember if he has already been picked. In any case, this seems more like a need based pick rather than a BAP. You reveal that in this statement: “C.J. Spiller looks enticing, but at the same time it’s a Running Back, and I believe there are always RB’s later in the draft.”
I’d hate Gene to make that statement just because there are “always RBs later in the draft”. AS I recall I don’t remember anyone ever drafting a Emmitt Smith, AD, DeAngelo Williams, MJD (well he’s a 2nd rounder but we don’t have one…and plus he was a steal…should have went first round), Tomlinson, Edge, Alexander, et al later in the draft.
Welll he's in Jacksonville right now
So he’s worth bringing up
"I just love the Jaguars. Thereeee great! Wow look at the Jaguars almost won the games to the Super Bowl XXXI!" - 2nd Grade Journal entry
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Do you know how much he is asking?
I don’t. I also don’t know how much the Jags are willing to pay. I can hope that a good deal can get done, but I’m not going to ignore the fact that the Jags are meeting with him. Most free agents will meet with about three teams and are usually signed by one of those three. That gives us a 33.3% chance. That’s good for me.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
He was in Phily and left WITHOUT a contract...
So he should moderate his price tagg a bit…
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 6, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
From Roto World:
Kampman was rumored to be visiting Philadelphia and Seattle on Friday but apparently didn’t make either trip. Kampman would start opposite former first-round pick Derrick Harvey. The Jags have also been in contact with free agent DE Jared DeVries and are also interested in bringing back veteran Reggie Hayward
So Jacksonville is the first place he has visited. I like that.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Oh and Golden Tate > Dez Bryant but neither is a top 10 talent.
But if they were I’d have no problem drafting them at 10 if they are BAP.
Oh thrw Fred Taylor in there as well.
We all love Freddy T…anyone honestly think you’d find a Freddy T in the later rounds. Doubt it.
How about the undrafted?
First one who come to mind is Willie Parker.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ha. Ha ha.
No one is saying he isn’t. But to stand out and say that Parker has done nothing is close-minded of you. He was an undrafted RB who led the NFL in rushing on year. Nothing? Right. CJ is likely going to be a good player, but the argument was that others of good talent at RB can be found later in the draft, and they can.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah Seldom.
What about the argument for the number of elite backs found in the early point of the draft? I already named several.
The likelihood of finding an elite back in the back half of the draft isn’t high.
Your example of Willie Parker is an outlier.
But... and I'm sorry, this will sound need based.
Why are we looking for an ‘elite’ RB when we have MJD. I know that, going by BAP, the best man wins. The most talented man wins. But it is also about value, and I just don’t think as much value will be place on CJ by the Jags because they are pretty set at RB. A value board is something that tells you who is the most valuable for /you/. At this pick, Morgan makes sense. Believe it or not, that is no need-based, but more of a weighted value board. It just like the fact, which we all know, that a QB that might be the 15th most talented player in the draft could go in the top 5. Why? Because his position gives him a major boost.
If the Rams pick Bradford, no one can tell me they went completely BAP. Heck, if anyone before KC picks him no one can tell me that. But they will! Why? Because he is the best value pick. His value makes him the BAP. In the same way, the fact that CJ doesn’t play as premium a position as Morgan and the fact that the Jags are thin at DE will play into making Morgan the BAP on the Jag’s value board.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'll let Vic handle it...
If C.J. Spiller is there at 10 do you take him?
Vic: If he’s the highest-rated guy left on my board, of course I do. Why wouldn’t I take him? Because I have Maurice Jones-Drew? Well, I took him when I had Fred Taylor and that worked out pretty well. No matter how many times I say it, it just won’t sink in, will it? I believe in BAP.
We will.
That’s all I’m saying. I have no idea who the Jags will have valued higher. I believe it would make sense if Morgan was. You believe differently. That’s okay.
Though I think it’s all moot, cause I still think that they’ll be trading back.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
The if is huge. What I tried to present is a logical situation where, with Morgan, JPP and Spiller on the board, Spiller might not be the highest-rated. Is that hard to cope with? Disagreements are going to happen because people have opinions, but what Vic said means nothing to my argument.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Parker would still
be a great RB, if it hadn’t been for injuries. Second we don’t know that Spiller is gonna be better than Parker was. Just think Reggie Bush. What makes anyone think that Spiller is gonna be better than Bush? And if we were to go back in time, would Bush still be a top 10 pick? I think not.
Three 1,200+ yard seasons are nothing?
He was the leading back in the NFL two of those years. In each of those years he was the starter. In the last two years he hasn’t been, so we don’t know if he is still that good.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Also...
I know that Vic was asked about RBs and he gave a very nice list of RBs that were either drafted late or undrafted. They can be found. Heck, Rashad Jennings was a player many thought to be 2nd or 3rd round talent and he fell into the last 10 picks of the 7th. Sadly, you usually won’t find DEs and DTs and the like (big guys) worth their weight at the bottom end. Not as often as wit the skill positions. Now, if Spiller seemed to be a truly /special/ talent, I’ say we have to draft him. But he isn’t. He’s not a once in a lifetime RB.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Watch the highlight film of CJ Spiller.
He’s fast as hell, can run in between the tackles, breaks tackles and can do special teams. Most value boards have him rated higher than Morgan.
I said he isn't a once in a lifetime back
Every NFL RB prospect has film that shows them running between the tackles, breaking tackles and playing special teams. That doesn’t make them a once in a lifetime back. I’ve seen the highlight films. I know where most fan mocks and value boards have him going. But when are they ever completely right? Why should we care where most value boards have a player rated? I want the Jags to pick the player they have rated higher. If RCR believes it to be Morgan in this situation, I can see that and understand it. Heck, I even agree with it. E
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
I don’t think that either player is a top 10 pick. Spiller is a part time player and Morgan is not elite. Give me Earl Thomas.
I'm worried Thomas has the brains...
…but when I watch film a lot of his highlight plays seem to be made “by a thread” in the sense that he’s soo close to not making the play.
I worry that the small margin by which he makes so many plays won’t be there in the NFL. It’s like his athletic ability is already stretch thin in college. Having said that I was surprised by how high his weight was at the combine, but my concerns are also about length and speed. He’s pretty far further down my board – like at 10+ spots.
I have always believed that RBs are a dime a dozen, even more than WRs.
You can find great runners in later rounds or even undrafted (Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Pierre Thomas). You seldom find monster linemen, both offensive and defensive, so late. A RB at #10 would be a waste of a pick. And hey, Freddy T and Fast Willie both led the league in rushing the same number of years (none).
BAP is a value system. If you can get a similar player in the 4th round instead of the 1st round, then it is poor value to spend your 1st rounder that way. Anyone can be a great running back with the right guys blocking for them; few players are as solid as Morgan or have as much crazy upside as JPP. And that is why this pick makes sense.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Mar 6, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Do you remember...
How he would run just as much behind the line of scrimmage as in front of it, because there was so much penetration. I have never seen a RB avoid getting tackled like Sanders could.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
well, the guy is in Jacksonville so we can dream about it a bit can we?
it would be nice to bring someone that actualy can make a sack?
The great thing about the draft
It is based a bit on fact and a lot on opinion. If you think he will work out, then this is a good pick Chris. Interesting your logic!
Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!
hmmmmmmm....
Im with Zoltan………Iowa game was a huge turn off. Maybe he wasnt playing at full speed cause he didnt want to hurt his draft stock???…….lol
frankDUBZ aka Frank Silba
"You have to stand for something, or you will fall for anything" - Me
Please...this guy seems like more of a Bust than JPP
He looks like he would make a good every downs end and get 3-4 sacks a year but he doesn’t have nearly as much upside as JPP. Don’t think he’d really help the pass rush much either.
Really not feeling the pick. Sorry I keep going on about it.
I couldn't disagree more
about the bust statement. Morgan will at least be an average player. JPP…??? He could be a complete nonfactor. All we know about him right now is that he’s big, fast, and can do backflips well. He still struggles with every facet of being a DE: holding the point, getting off blocks, change of direction, pass rush moves, tackling…..
The way this mock has played out, and if they’re hell bent on going DE, you have to take Jason Pierre-Paul. Dude is going to be a gamechanger on the outside, and has incredible athleticism.
"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott
It's too big
of a gamble IMO. Even then, we know his upside wont be fulfilled for probably 2 years, if ever. Top 10 is too expensive to gamble.
I agree.
I just keep thinking that JPP will be another Darrick Harvey, but without the run-stopping ability.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Actually Morgan is a lot like Chris Long and JPP is a lot like Gholston. Neither is worth a top 10, but Chris is at least a starting DE. As for Vernon…. :- /
Gholston doesn't even have a sack in two years, does he?
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'll answer my own question.
No sacks and a total of 30 tackles (solo + assists).
Long: 83 tackles and 9 sacks.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I remember all the talk
Of Gholston’s amazing athletic abilities and his upside. Great comparison to JPP. Yeah, I think JPP could be a good player… but he has more bust potential than Matt Jones. Or at least as much.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Mar 6, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't buy
into these hybrid DE/OLB or athletic guys especially in the first round. I mean we traded to grab Groves and look what he’s done for us in terms of pass rush. It’s a waste especially if your team is running the 4-3, maybe if you run 3-4 it makes sense
The big factor i think lies in Denver
if Seattle pulls the trigger on this Brandon Marshall deal and has to give up their first round pick, I see denver taking mclain at the 6th spot, and dez bryant or dan williams at 11. if seattle get’s marshall, im thinking gene will try and trade down hard, to someone like san diego who still might want c.j spiller
BAP
BAP BAP BAP regardless of postion (personally if it comes to morgan CJ or JPP I would take CJ )
by jesusjagfan2009 on Mar 7, 2010 5:24 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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