The Issue with Rolando McClain
by Alfie Crow on Apr 13, 2010 11:02 AM EDT
in 2010 NFL Draft
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PrintAs of right now, it's fairly easy to narrow down who the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to select if they stay at the 10th overall pick in the draft next week. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Alabama linebacker Rolando McClain. He fits what they're looking for in a linebacker. He's a student of the game, a leader, he goes 100% every play, he makes big-time plays, and he's a thumper. There is a big area of concern however, with relation to where the Jaguars are selecting. I like Rolando McClain a lot as a player and I think he'll be a fine linebacker at the next level, but is he fast enough to warrant picking in the Top 10?
Below is a chart I made comparing linebackers taken in the Top 10 since the 2000 NFL draft. Lately when comparing past drafts and draft trends, I've been using 2000 as a cut-off because it makes a nice even 10 years (so a decade) and it's in the same "era" of the NFL. The game from 2000 isn't that much different from today, where as something like 1995 is completely different.
| Player | Overall Pick | 40-Yard Dash |
| Lavar Arrington | 2 | 4.51 |
| Brian Urlacher | 9 | 4.58 |
| A.J. Hawk | 5 | 4.53 |
| Ernie Sims | 9 | 4.50 |
| Keith Rivers | 9 | 4.51 |
| Jerod Mayo | 10 | 4.54 |
| Aaron Curry | 4 | 4.52 |
| Rolando McClain | Proj. Top 10 | 4.69 |
As you can see, all of the linebackers taken with in the Top 10 cracked the 4.6 mark, most of them by quite a bit. Also just to throw it out there, there were reports that Patrick Willis, who was selected 11th overall, ran in the 4.39 range at his pro-day. Johnathan Vilma who was also taken just outside the Top 10 ran in the 4.52 range. Part of the reasons all of these linebackers were taken so early was because of their athleticism, it allowed them to be versatile. They were not pigeonholed into a particular position or even defense. All of them could play strong-side, weak-side, and middle linebacker. All of them could find a spot in a 4-3 defense or a 3-4 defense.
As I said previously, I like Rolando McClain a lot as a football player and I think he'll be a good player in the NFL. The problem is however, I don't think he's worth a Top 10 selection, especially given that the Jaguars claim their going to be running a 4-3 alignment. If the Jaguars were sticking with the 3-4 that they experimented with last year, I wouldn't really have an issue with the pick. McClain is a great building block for making the transition to a 3-4 defense, especially considering Jacksonville has a guy in Terrance Knighton who excelled at the nose tackle position. He's a perfect fit as in inside linebacker and he has plenty of experience in the 3-4, as he played and excelled in it at Alabama. This is part of what I take issue with. If the Jaguars plan on sticking with the 4-3 (which I still have doubts about, but that's for another day) McClain only fits at a single position due to his lack of speed; middle linebacker. His speed is a big issue, as he barely cracked a 4.7, and in today's NFL speed at the linebacker position in the 4-3 is a necessity. You don't really want your middle linebacker running as fast as 270 pound defensive ends. You want your middle linebacker to be able to play sideline to sideline.
That's fine and well, and I think he'd be a good middle linebacker... but you don't draft linebackers in the Top 10 with the hopes of them just being "good" within your scheme at a single position. Linebackers traditionally are not considered a premium position (not counting 3-4 rush backer, obviously) in today's NFL. Generally when they are taken in the Top 10, or just outside of it, it's because they posses great speed, athletic ability, play recognition, and they're versatile. McClain has some of these attributes, but not all of them. If he's playing the middle linebacker position in a 4-3, which is really the only position he can play in a 4-3, opposing team's offensive coordinators are going to find ways to exploit him in coverage. They'll find ways to stretch running plays that will require him to cover a lot of ground.
That's the whole crux of the issue. You don't want to select a limited player in the Top 10 unless you have to. You can't draft a linebacker in the Top 10 who isn't a 3-down player. As I said before, if the Jaguars were running a 3-4 alignment, it'd be a little different. You don't need the inside linebackers to be as complete, you can hide their coverage deficiencies... but the Jaguars don't currently run a 3-4 defense, they run a 4-3 where those cannot be hidden. McClain will either have to come off the field on obvious passing downs, blitz, or risk getting exploited in coverage.
As I mentioned earlier, if I were a betting man McClain is who I'd put my money on for the 10th overall pick, depending on who's available. From the sounds of it though, it would almost be a pick made begrudgingly and almost out of need, as the Jaguars are trying to find a linebacker outside of Daryl Smith they feel is worth a damn. If McClain has his named called on April 22nd I'm not going to be upset with the pick, but I can't say I'd be entirely thrilled with it either.
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Great work Alfie
Rec’d
The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.
Vince Lombardi
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by Brian Fullford on Apr 13, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
+1 Great Evaluation
I think the guy is good, but not top ten good that’s for sure. When I watch his highlights I really don’t see anything spectacular. He looks slow and seems to play high to me.
Also I don’t really see him as a “thumper” considering how big he is. Our division, more than most requires a LB that can pass rush, cover well, and get from sideline to sideline in a hurry. Players like Dallas Clark and Chris Johnson require speed and quickness, McClain has neither.
His highlights don’t “wow” me like say Aaron Curry. Perhaps it’s my obvious bias talking but when I watch AC’s highlights I think wow, that’s first round talent. I don’t get the same impression with RM.
Another thing that bothers me...
…about him is that when he was asked his scheme preference he stated 3-4. Seems to me you would want to be vague about such things, and just be happy to get drafted and play in the NFL. Stating a preference seems to indicate that he wouldn’t perform as well in a 4-3 team’s defense. Whether he’s talking about his desires or his abilities, one doesn’t know. It almost seems like he would prefer to go to a 3-4 team, which, the Jags are not. Making excuses already, in case he is picked up by a 4-3 team? Would he even be happy coming to a 4-3 team? I don’t know. It just makes me go hmmmm…
Yeah, my eyebrows went up when I saw that
I haven’t been a big fan of his since I read those comments
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by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 13, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice...
….so we’ll not draft Rolando McClain, even though he’s the best linebacker in the draft. Someone else will pick him and then he’ll end up being rookie DPOY. In the meantime, we’ll go with someone who runs blazing fast, but can’t tackle.
So because he's the best linebacker in the draft
He’s top 10 worthy by default? He doesn’t get a free pass to the top of the value board just because he plays linebacker.
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No but...
…there’s something to be said that he’s the best LB in the draft. We get caught up in the numbers so much that we forget to ask ourselves the most important question “Can he play?” Rolando McClain is being touted for his leadership and game intelligence. Not to mention he can flat play. IMO, he’s worth our 10 pick.
Top 10 pick or the fact he's no.1 Lb
doesn’t make him any faster
but I would like to see some numbers… like how did he perform on other drills and prev.40y times
I think he's the best ILB due to his accomplishments, but that doesn't make him the best prospect.
He’s the top rated ILB due to his performance at Alabama, but his natural ability isn’t the best. On a side note, I don’t think Alfie Crow said anything about having a problem with drafting him, just that he wouldn’t be ecstatic either, which is how I feel as well.
The most athletic LBs expected to go in the first two rounds are Sean Weatherspoon and Daryl Washington. Weatherspoon played for a terrible defense and excelled, while Washington was also excellent, but played for the #1 defense. On the other hand, McClain played for the #2 defense and was excellent, but his lack of speed was often exposed. Basically, I’d take Sean Weatherspoon over either of them. His ranking is affected by how sorry Missouri’s defense was.
nice article but...
aren’t we just talking about .2 seconds here. He might not have blazing speed but not sure he will get exploited with D. Smith helping him on one side and Daryl helping on the other. It’s not like his speed will make everyone else slower. Honestly, who really can keep up with C. Johnson? So why not have a guy that will ensure someone will be in position to stop 80 yard runs, with his knowledge and leadership skills?
Offensive coordinators will find ways to put him in vulnerable positions
Whether it’s trying to cover Chris Johnson, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, etc.
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by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 13, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
but also adder pass rush will help everyone behind it. Rushed passes and arrant throws , but he would need the speed to get to it. I guess I am like the article says, wouldn’t mind it but wouldn’t be thrilled.
One thing I'm sure of
is that at least 1 team in the top 9 is going to select someone that none of the big Mock Drafts had listed in the top 10.
It’s easy to say that’ll be the Raiders since nobody ever knows what they’re doing. But in reality by the time you get to #10, someone has done something silly.
ha… the draft has a lot of people splitting-hairs here… and every year we see players who don’t have “elite” speed, tackling, blocking, etc… make it on a roster and those pre-draft issues simply disappear… it can just as easily go the other way and the player with all of those elite skills just can’t cut it in the NFL… see what I’m saying? coming up with absolutes doesn’t work too well in regards to drafting… every college kid has a knock against them, but some are more apparent than others…
ok, thanks for listening to Mr. Devi’s Advocate. (by the way, i’m NOT talking about any one particular player)
Sean Jax Beach Bum
Think of it like this
It’s 3rd and 6 with 4 minutes to go. The Colts are up by 4. The Colts come out with 3 WRs, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addi or Donald Brown (your choice). The Jags come out in a nickel package.
Question 1: Is Rolando McClain on the field, or is it Durant and Smith?
Question 2a: Assuming McClain is on the field, do you trust him to cover Dallas Clark 1-on-1?
Question 2b: Assuming McClain is on the field, do you trust him to cover the back?
I don’t feel comfortable with him on the field in that situation. That being said do you take a guy 10th overall to play “2 downs”?
Ignore the hype; look at the results.
Yep
I feel like McClain was so good because he fit perfectly in Alabama’s system and he had a great supporting cast around him just watch these highlights and tell me he could survive in our division.
I think he is getting a bit too much personal credit because he was part of such great defense.
A lack of speed can be excused in later picks, but in the top ten you should not have to compromise when it comes to linebackers.
Not sure how this applies...
… because Jack wants to go back to playing Cover 2 ball. Each man only has to do 1/11th of the job. The problems we’ve been facing are 1) the line doesn’t get enough pressure for cover 2 to work and 2) half the defenders don’t know what their jobs are.
Great article, I agree with all points
Especially that a top 10 pick shouldn’t have speed issues. But like cuffs007 mentioned, every kid coming out of college has a knock against them.
If McClain is the best available player at #10 then I won’t have a problem with him being a Jag. Other than the 40 time he is the total package – we can’t pass on a guy just b/c of one flaw. He would make us better, bottom line.
BTW, I’ve said it before, it doesn’t matter if McClain ran a 4.4, there’s no way he could cover Chris Johnson, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, etc. 1-on-1. Durant has elite speed, can he cover any of them??? That’s why they are LBs! You’d use a S to help on those guys, they are the best at getting open.
Life's battles don't always go
To the stronger or faster man;
But soon or late the man who wins
Is the one who thinks he can.
Why does everybody seem to always have bandwagon fever?
Someone writes something, half of the people on BCC jump on board and start stating they’ve believed the same way all along.
Not to take away from the article, because it was great. Presented a very valid argument. But for everybody else, how come nobody spoke up in the past? I’m just curious. This comment is kind of negative, so for that I apologize.
Measurables only go so far. Yeah the guys kind of slow for a top ten pick. But I believe instincts and reaction make up for some of that. Joe Haden had the same concern looming over him before his Pro Day.
The fact of the matter is Jerry Rice ran around a 4.6 40.
Question is, can Rolando be an exception to the rule in the same way Jerry Rice was? That’s the crystal ball business.
I’ve been “meh” on McClain since his combine comments
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by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 13, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I know man
My comment wasn’t really directed towards the administrators of the site. I know Adam isn’t too big on him either.
In most cases Blair72, you're right
People are quick to jump on the bandwagon for most arguments. But this article does a great job of showing how most top 10 LBs have speed, but McClain will still be a solid NFL LB, just not your normal top 10 pick.
I think most people have said that already, just not as logically as Alfie Crow. It would be sweet if either he was faster or we could get him later in the 1st rd.
As for measurables, I have always said they are overrated. Every Saturday the guy was the best player on the field from what I saw – that’s all that matters to me. Same with Dez Bryant, Joe Haden, etc. who everyone complains about their speed.
Again, Durant & Ingram have speed to burn, but how’s that working for them???
Most dudes who have all the measurables don’t pan out.
Life's battles don't always go
To the stronger or faster man;
But soon or late the man who wins
Is the one who thinks he can.
+1
about the Durant and Ingram, but that is also an argument for the people against drafting him. If faster guys are struggling then why would a slower guy excel? Tired of talking about what if’s, 9 days need to hurry up.
A slower guy could excel....
… because the game is also about angles and knowing where to be. I would like to conclude by saying Reggie Nelson is fast.
Not a while ago
But I’ve been complaining about mcclain for the past few days. At least i was before the article!
For the record, I have also been saying that about McClain.
Alfie actually wrote something I agree with! Yay!
I’m firmly on the Earl Thomas bandwagon, with space set aside for the unexpected drop of a great OT, Eric Berry, and depending on my mood, Dan Williams.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Apr 13, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
funny
I feel the same way about Williams.
I know he probably won’t go at 10 but I am real big on Graham.
The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.
Vince Lombardi
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by Brian Fullford on Apr 13, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been pretty adamant about McClain's flaws.
I also have him ranked behind both Sean Weatherspoon and Daryl Washington.
Speed is an issue but I
still see great upside in him. Nice piece Alfie; but (unless Eric Berry has find a way to 10) McClain is still top of my board at 10.
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Apr 13, 2010 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
His intelligence makes up for his lack of speed............
If you know where the ball is going, you can be in the right place at the right time. You can change the positioning of other positions on the field prior to the snap. You can change the play prior to the snap. The other LB’s in this draft are good soldiers, but I think McClain is a great general.
frankDUBZ aka Frank Silba
"You have to stand for something, or you will fall for anything" - Me
At the end I still think S is bigger need
So what I would like to see at no.10 is Berry or Thomas, and look for LB later.
or trade down and take other big need C/OG
For such a good defensive draft
I could be wrong, but the linebacker class this year is overall pretty weak.
Semi-Related: Finalists for the 2009 All-Pro (not pro bowl):
The average finalists for OLB All-Pro’s were drafted in the middle of the 2nd round.
The average finalists for MLB All-Pro’s were drafted halfway through the 1st round.
Once again, if it’s 3rd and 6 against the Colts would you want Rolando McClain covering Dallas Clark or one of their backs? I wouldn’t. Do you give top 10 money to a guy that has to be taken out on obvious passing downs? Do you give top 10 money to a guy with Crohn’s (yes, I realize David has his in check, but $20 million guaranteed is a lot of money).
I don’t think for the Jaguars, a 4-3 team, that McClain would be the best player available at 10.
Ignore the hype; look at the results.
Take this with a grain of salt
I’m not one to promote Rec’ing. However, I think Alfie’s noting speed of past LBs was a smart move. Whether you agree or disagree with him I’d like to ask you to rec this one up. I personally fall on the side of drafting McClain as smart can overcome a slight slowness in the step (as has been noted). You see this all the time in WRs (Rice wasn’t a burner by any means). However, it is the case that 3-4 may be the best scheme for him.
Ok…off my soapbox :)
The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.
Vince Lombardi
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I say Rolando McClain...
As the Jags continue to build through the draft, RM is the perfect player for the 10th pick. You can question his speed and that has a lot of validity to it, but the fact remains is a good football player and he has potential to be stud in the NFL. Last year the Jags had a problem tackling in space…Chris Johson turned 4 yard gains to 80 yards…enter McClain…you can question his speed all you want but Groves is way faster and tried him at LB…how did that work out? His knowledge of the games makes up for his speed. Everyone on this blog is football literate so…when you know what you doing on field, you tend to play faster…
One life to live, live it to the fullest...
Yes, you can play so much faster with a helmet and pads on than in your underwear running a straight line
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by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 13, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I agree, but ...
McClain will somewhat eliminate Safety help…having another sound tackler with Buck in the front seven…you can do a lot of things…
One life to live, live it to the fullest...
i hear a lot about the opposing coaches doing different things to target so-and-so… but, what about our own coaching staff?… i know they realize the same things and can counter a player’s lack of whatever with their own scheming… i know it’s not a guarantee to work, but, hell, McClain won’t be the first person to be targeted as such… Wouldn’t most smart coaches do that anyhow?
Sean Jax Beach Bum
CJ Spiller...
I doubt the Jags will go with CJ Spiller…as they have MJD on the roster and he’s the face of the franchise. You don’t pick a “scat back” with the top ten pick when you have MJD on your roster…The Jags need ton of help on the defense. I like Spiller, but I don’t see him as a Jaguar…may that RB from Ole Miss in later rounds, maybe…
One life to live, live it to the fullest...
few things to think about
’bama played a lot of different defensive alignments this year instead of just the base 3-4. We lined up in everything from a 3-3-5 to a 2-3-6 and a 4-1-6 and everything in between. The one LB that never came off the field – Rolando – even against pass happy Florida and Texas.
everyone said that demeco ryans from Alabama was too slow also and so he dropped to the second round. Then he was the defensive rookie of the year and has been to two pro-bowls and has become the leader of that squad.
no, not rolando
just been around a lot of the great ‘bama linebackers and know that he’s up among the best of the best that our team has ever produced
15 hundredths of a second? Big deal.
At first I thought, “What’s that, a couple inches?”
Then I took the Wayback Machine to my high school days, inverted some fractions, cross multiplied, carried the one, and presto-chango — maybe it is a big deal.
A 4.5 guy runs 320 inches per second.
A 4.7 guy runs 306 inches per second.
So it’s about one foot per second, maybe two yards difference over the course of a six-second play (I don’t think the speed would factor much, if at all, in short time/short distance runs between the tackles). That is potentially a very big deal.
Then I looked at the All-Pro middle linebackers since 2000. (Not scientific, just random sample of ESPN, AP, etc.)
The only real speed guy (I think) was Patrick Willis (4.35 or so). The rest were high 4.5s, or in the 4.6s or even a 4.7-something or two.
If anyone has the time and inclination, you could find the MLBs with the fastest 40s and see how they’ve performed in the NFL.
I guess my perspective is that speed is good, but it doesn’t appear to be the most significant factor in predicting how a MLB will perform.
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