How much value does C.J. Spiller provide the Jaguars?
by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 15, 2010 10:26 AM EDT
in 2010 NFL Draft
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PrintA war of words erupted in the comments about what the Jaguars should do with Clemson RB CJ Spiller. Some are saying the Jaguars should take CJ Spiller with the 10th pick as someone to team up with Maurice Jones-Drew. On the other hands, others are saying that Spiller doesn't provide enough value to the Jaguars to warrant taking him at the 10th pick.
Wait, value? I thought the Jaguars were going BAP. Well, value and BAP go hand in hand. Remember, the draft is all about maximizing the potential value of every pick. Value comes in a lot of different ways, including does the player play a premium position, their versatility, the current state of that position on your team, etc.
Where does CJ Spiller fit into all of this? Is his do everything, threat to take it 80 yards every time he touches it, ability enough to warrant the Jaguars to take him at #10? Or are other factors in play?
Is CJ Spiller the complete package?
Running backs are usually not graded as a premium position. Like safeties, it's only when there is a truly elite player on the board do you take one in the Top 10. Since 1998 only 13 running backs have been taken in the Top 10
| 2008 | Darren McFadden | 4th, Oakland |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson | 7th, Minnesota |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush | 2nd,New Orleans |
| 2005 | Ronnie Brown | 2nd, Miami |
| 2005 | Cedric Benson | 4th, Chicago |
| 2005 | Carnell WIlliams | 5th, Tampa Bay |
| 2001 | LaDainain Tomlinson | 5th, San Diego |
| 2000 | Jamal Lewis | 5th, Baltimore |
| 2000 | Thomas Jones | 7th, Arizona |
| 1999 | Edgerrin James | 4th, Indianapolis |
| 1999 | Ricky Williams | 5th, New Orleans |
| 1998 | Curtis Enis | 4th, Chicago |
| 1998 | Fred Taylor | 9th, Jacksonville |
What is the common thread amongst all of these running backs, besides Reggie Bush? All of these running backs were thought to be the total package. They could run between the tackles, take 25 carries a game, run away from defenders, in essence do whatever you wanted out of a running back.
Removing Bush and the running back graveyard that is Chicago, that seems to be a pretty good formula as 8 of the remaining 10 players made the Pro Bowl. The only two who haven't are McFadden, who's stuck in the blackhole of Oakland, and Williams, who had a bright future until injuries ruined his career.
So unless you're Chicago, if you do your homework and judge a running back to be Top 10 worthy, it's probably going to work out.
Now, let's take a look at the lone exception, Reggie Bush. Bush made a living as a human highlight reel at USC. It seemed as though everyone was going in slow motion besides him. However, at the NFL level he has simply been the most expensive role player in the league. He can't simply run past people now that they're all playing at his speed.
I think the same is going to happen to CJ Spiller. Spiller never took the ball in between the tackles at Clemson, preferring to go to the outside or catch it out of the backfield. In short, he doesn't fit the mold of what you want from a Top 10 running back. He'll never get a carry on 3rd and 1 or goalline situations, and will need a complimentary back for his career.
The money issue
Don't think for a second that money doesn't play a part in which players get selected where. If the Jaguars took CJ Spiller with the 10th pick in the draft, he would get more guaranteed money than Maurice Jones-Drew. Think about that for a moment. Do you really want to possibly piss off the face of your franchise by taking a guy in the Top 10 and give him a bigger contract?
The Fred Taylor/MJD situation was much different. MJD was a second round pick, getting paid 2nd round money. He wasn't getting paid more than Fred, and MJD didn't have any expectations until he burst onto the scene into the 2nd half of 2006.
Now, MJD seems like a consummate professional and I doubt the Jaguars would have a TO situation, in terms of public mud flinging. However, it could get ugly if MJD would want a new contract in light of what the Jaguars did.
What other players will be there at 10?
Earl Thomas: He may have a higher ceiling than Eric Berry, has the skills to play corner as well. He can play a premium position as well as a position the Jaguars need to address.
Anthony Davis/Brian Bulaga/Trent Williams: Could play either RT or LT. Would allow the Jaguars to solidify their offensive line by adding another premium big man.
Joe Haden: Plays a premium spot at corner
The list just goes on. If the Jaguars want to get a returner/3rd down back, Dexter McCluster will probably be there in round 3. At this point, there are too many players at premium spots that could be available to use a pick on a guy who doesn't fit the mold of a Top 10 RB.
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Agree 100%
Great article. I would like to see us traade down and get add’l picks. If we pick at 10 just get BAP and that I will beleive to be a premium position. OT/CB/DL
Good article
Spiller is a great player, but if he or Clausen and Dez Bryant are sitting at 10, we have a great chance to trade back. Personally i want to see someone on either line or the defensive backfield get added with the first pick, whenever that may be.
E
Jon - very nice
The highest paid NFL players are either those that have played way above everyone else or those that have never played at all. Well, three actually, 2008 Jaguar free-agents, but I digress.
I am warming to Earl Thomas but as the help over the top kind of guy, needs work as a run stopper. Does play corner/safety so premium dollars I can see.
Tackles get big money for being big men who can move and no one minds a high paid really good offensive lineman. I don’t and neither does David or Maurice.
If you look at the all-time leading running backs, very very few didn’t come in the first round. Your point is C.J. Spiller does not have the all-time RB makeup. I agree. If he did, then number 10 is a good spot to grab him. Don’t see it.
We still disagree on Dan Williams, but other than that I think I’m there. Good article.
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What is this all time RB makeup?
Is he fast? Yes, world class speed. On par with CJ.
Does he catch well? Yes, exceptionally.
Does he block well? He is decent to good.
Is he shifty and quick? Yes?
Does he have the potential to score on every play? Yes, a lot of potential.
Can he run in between the tackles? Yes.
Does he have patience? Yes.
Does he break tackles? Yes.
Can he do KR/PR? Yes
So what part of his game is weak or not “all-time”?
Big question: CAN HE POTENTIALLY BE BETTER THAN MJD? ABSOLUTELY and I’m not afraid to say it!!!!!!
so Other than Money why shouldn’t we take him?????????????????????????????????????
If we are afraid to take Spiller because of money, because we are afraid it may make MJD cry, or that he will be better than Spiller than I say screw all the BAP talk because its a load of crap.
Do I like Earl Thomas? Yes but he is not better than Berry nor does he have a higher ceiling than Berry and only because I can’t justify any other player other than Clausen and DanWilliams to be taken @ 10.
It comes down to Clausen(which won’t be there), Williams (I like him as a DT but he doesn’t really fit @ 10), and Earl Thomas (he is a great safety but he is not Berry, still feel uneasy taking him @ 10)…and then Spiller (which I believe can make an immediate impact on the Jags day one).
But
Chris Johnson is already on the small side himself. So by normal every-down back standards, Spiller is a small back. You don’t start describing your most desirable RB by saying he’s 195 lbs. You say he’s 6’ and 235lbs, with 4.3 speed and great hands and etc.
How many times
in his senior year did he eclipse 100 yards rushing? 4 times.
Gerhart had 11 games in the 09 season where he eclipsed 100 yards, and another game where he 96.
That’s what every down backs do.
Even Best had 5 games over 100 yards, and he missed 4 games, and I really don’t consider him a 1st day pick.
You don’t carry the ball against South Carolina 9 times for 18 yards. Or go 19 for 58 against Virginia. And that’s what Spiller did.
by Ewdtrey on Apr 15, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, but you are just talking rushing yards...
Spiler had quite a few games where he broke well over 200 yards combined in the passing, rushing, and return game… He was practically everything to Clemson…
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Yes, money is a major issue.
I don’t, personally, want to see my team pay top-10 money for a guy who will return kicks and might (might) become a good change-of-pace guy. It i very unlikely that he would be able to ever carry the load. I don’t want to pay more than we have to for tat type of guy.
And I don’t care about the guy will have an immediate impact. I care about the guy who will have the best impact throughout his carrier, and I believe that there are many choices who will.
Heck, might as well label Spiller a KR/PR, cause that’s what he’s good for. ;)
by alwaysforgiven821 on Apr 15, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is it very unlikely he could carry load?
Why do you think he is only good as a KR/PR?
Or just a change of pace guy?
If I remember correctly a lot of people thought this same way about MJD.
I actually think Spiller could be better than MJD.
A lot of people felt that way about MJD
And that’s why the Jaguars only risked a 2nd round pick on him. Not a top 10 pick.
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by Adam Stites on Apr 15, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the used a 2nd round on him because no one ever thought he'd be more than a 3rd down back.
Had Spiller skipped his senior year he’d be the top rated back in the draft in 2009. Top 10 pick easily.
I don't buy that
He was never a full time starter before last year. Why would someone pick him in the top 10 over full time starters.
by Rocky Staten on Apr 15, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think we need to worry
about Maurice being offended by a #1 pick getting more money. He fully understands the business side of things.
They all get it - that is correct
But some they mind it less than others.
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Doesn't make it right, though
MJD earned his money, Spiller hasn’t yet. I think a few Jags players would have a problem with a rookie getting paid more than the best player on the team.
What if Gene thinks Spiller can be better than MJD?
If you come @ it from that perspective then the money/ MJD’s feeling point is moot.
Then draft him
I don’t care one way or the other. I was just pointing out how ridiculous it is to pay a rookie more than your starter.
Your starter, who just happened to be one of the top two backs in the AFC last year.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Apr 15, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
So what. What's your point?
Doesn’t mean you can’t draft a guy who could be even better than what MJD did.
That's how the first round works
It’s not right, it never has been but that’s how the draft works. First round picks get paid a ludicrous amount of money so you shouldn’t avoid a particular position just to avoid offending a star player.
that's true no matter who you draft
Clause will make more than Garrard, Thomas will make more that Mathis etc…
That’s an overall problem with the NFL and has nothing to do with who we take with the pick.
Exactly.
You don’t draft someone out of fear of another players feelings or money. That would not be doing BAP.
I'm not worried about MJD's feelings
I’m worried about having $40 million of guaranteed money tied up at the RB position. That’s just ludicrous. That might not hurt MJD’s feelings, but it might hurt mine.
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Best
I think that Best, out of Cal, offers a very similar package to CJ Spiller. Best was hurt a lot of 2009, but if you know that he’s healed from those injuries, then he’s going to be a great value in the middle rounds. I’ve watched highlight films of that guy, and seen him make some catches that were WR-quality grabs, and he’s fast and surprisingly strong for his size. I’d rather see us hit someone on defense at the top of the draft, especially as people seem to think that there’s going to be a big OT run at the top before us. We should get some good value on that side of the ball at #10.
Injury prone?
He had one injury in which he was dropped 10+ feet on his head and he’s recovered from it. He’s not injury prone.
Not as dynamic? I completely disagree. Watch the highlights.
Smaller? An inch and 3 pounds suddenly makes him a huge downgrade?
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by Adam Stites on Apr 15, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't appear to be as much of a complete back as Spiller.
He greatest asset is his speed and quickness but I don’t see a lot of breaking tackles, running with power etc.
+1
You are absolutely correct.
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by Adam Stites on Apr 15, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm really starting to get confused by the idea of BAP
The way you are describing “value” it sounds a lot like “need”. When you base your picks on the “current state of the position on your team” to me that’s drafting based on need.
Also Spiller did run between the tackles at Clemson in a very Crhis Johnson like manner. He’s not a pounder, but he can read blocks very well inside or outside of the tackles. He doesn’t typically run people over but neither did Fred at the beginning of his career. He is a one cut and go guy not a lateral runner.
Aside from speed, I don’t see a lot of Reggie Bush in him. He is much more physical and does not “run away” from tacklers. He also played against tougher defenses for a team which was mediocre, not an offensive Juggernaut like USC.
I think he has great value because he will be a special teams threat from day one while he gradually works his way into the rotation. Maybe he’ll get a 3rd of the carries his rookie year and when we don’t run him there he can play the slot. Later on his role will increase. He looks very similar to chris johnson to me and if we get half the production of Johnson out of him he’ll be worth a top ten pick.
I’d be very happy with him but I’d also be fine with the other guys you listed, just so long as it’s not McClain.
BTW
There is no way we will pick Spiller. I don’t know why, but I just have a strong feeling it won’t happen.
I still think Spiller will be a major asset to whatever team grabs him and it would be a mistake to pass him up if we can’t get a good trade.
I think it's worth noting Spiller isn't on our board of Jaguar interests
That doesn’t necessarily mean the Jaguars have no interest, but if there has been some, we haven’t seen it.
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by Adam Stites on Apr 15, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Then its worth noting that your noting means nothing.
Just because the Jaguars haven’t revealed any interest doesn’t mean there isn’t any.
True enough...
But I find that it is extremely rare for a team not to meet with the guy they plan on selecting. Most of the time they’ll meet with 4+ guys they are targeting in the first round.
With the amount of emphasis that Gene Smith puts on character, I’d think they’d want to meet. Of course, there is still about a week… we’ll see.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Apr 15, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn bro, take it easy
All I’m saying is that we haven’t seen any interest. Doesn’t mean there isn’t any.
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Just to be clear:
There are talent boards and value boards. For example, some teams would value a shorter, wider NT over a taller, faster DT. Why? Because they run a 3-4. Does that mean that the NT is a better player than the DT? By no means – but for them, for that team in the scheme, yes.
In the same way, some positions get a better value. Let’s say you have a LT and OG, and you give them both 8.5 out of 10 as grades at their position. That means you really like them both… but, on your value board, that LT is quite a ways higher. Why? LT is a more premium position.
It is almost impossible for team to pick in a pure BAP, because then you’d have teams filled with centers, OGs and TEs. I’ve been saying that I don’t like the idea of picking Spiller for a while, and Jonathan explained my reasoning in his article. Spiller simply does not look, to me, to be the caliber of back that you would normally see picked in the top-10. Most people who think the Jags will take him say that he will be a PR/KR and a change-of-pace back. When thinking about position value, would it really be a good idea to use a top-10 pick on a guy you basically admit is in a secondary role?
That’s my view on it, at least.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Apr 15, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
BAP means Best Available Player to make the team better. Teams most often decide how players rank on how they will translate to team’s scheme/mindset. Teams judge/rank prospects on how they can impact the team. Talent is def factored in as well.
by MikeThomasSlotReceiver on Apr 15, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Ummm
I never got the impression that C.J. was an every down back and you don’t draft a running back at 10 that is not an every down back. Does Bush earn his paycheck? No. I don’t think the Jags have the luxury to draft a Reggie Bush type back with so many other glaring needs. If we are going BAP, I can think of 15 players that are better than Spiller. Running backs are a dime a dozen. If you draft C.J., you have to trade MJD. I don’t see C.j. as a complement to MJD, he is another MJD.
So in your last sentence
are you saying MJD isn’t an every down back ?
“If you draft C.J., you have to trade MJD. I don’t see C.j. as a complement to MJD, he is another MJD.”
Personally, I’d take another MJD with the #10 pick in a heartbeat.
Great
If you start them both!! Fail if you don’t.
by Rocky Staten on Apr 15, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
This isn’t Madden. I remember putting Deon Sanders in at WR. Worked great in Madden.
by Rocky Staten on Apr 15, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
If I was a DC I wouldn't know what to do if I saw a T formation with MJD and Spiller.
Both can catch, block, are fast as hell.
Spiller can play RB/WR.
Imgine if you were that same DC
and none of your guys could get off a block from the Jaguar’s new OL. There is no scheme for that.
Barry Sanders
Did just that. He was one of the all time greats though.
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by DownTownJax on Apr 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I knew someone was gonna say that
And he was definitely worth a top 10 draft pick. But keep in mind, Barry Sanders still is the leader all time in rushes that resulted in negative yardage.
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That Statistic is a shame
The only bigger shame than that is that some people think Emmitt Smith was better. Barry still more than made up for all the negative runs. I remember the play calling went something like… Barry runs, Barry runs, Barry again, punt. It was written all over the gameplan, yet he still became hall of fame caliber.
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by DownTownJax on Apr 15, 2010 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree with all of that
I just threw out that stat to show how difficult it is for even the most elusive back of all time to run successfully with a bad offensive line.
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Yeah
but he was a once in a lifetime player. Spiller is not that. Chris Johnson isn’t that either. I think we forget how good Chris Johnson has it over there with the Titans. That is one great line to run behind. And they feed him the ball. And VY was doing just enough to keep defenses somewhat honest.
C Johnson is rare. I’m not comparing him to BS caliber-give it a year or two maybe.. He showed it without VY but he has had a good line. If he has a half step on the defender he is gone- he’s a freak. I was bummed when Titans picked him.
by MikeThomasSlotReceiver on Apr 15, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes we have an OL
But we aren’t supposed to look at our roster when deciding what player we should pick. We should be picking with the idea that we are building from scratch. And you do that, LT’s and such are more important.
So who would be a complement to MJD?
He’s so balanced that he isn’t a clear power back or speed back. He’s both, so there’s no clear complimentary guy on the other end of the Spectrum. That doesn’t change the fact that he needs to be relieved or his career won’t last too long.
Why not get another premiere running back to share the load.
I never would have mentioned
how many would affect the players. Though I do agree paying that much money to a complimentary player is too much money.
I actually think
Spiller is the perfect compliment to MJD. I’m not debating that Spiller is a perfect fit. I just think that if MJD went down, that Spiller couldn’t carry the load, when he never has before.
He had some big and even great games
and he was the lone RB, but he didn’t carry the ball week in and week out and get the job done as expected from an every down back.
Yes the Clemson
OL sucked and conditions weren’t great for Spiller, but that’s what every-down backs are supposed to do in the College. They are supposed to be able to make their own way almost regardless of situation.
He rushed for
1200 yards and received for 503, on a crap team against tough defenses. That doesn’t even take into account his special teams plays.
That’s pretty good I think.
Yes he had
a good overall season, I’m talking about his consistency though. Why did he disappear, like in the Virginia game or the South Carolina game?
I don't understand your argument????
I’m pretty sure MJD, like every RB ever has had low production games. Sometimes the defense sells out to stop the run and they succeed.
He really did carry that offense pretty much by himself.
OK, no more from me, I’m beating a dead horse!
+1
Only 7 more days.
I’ll tell you what, if we pick him, I will still be very happy to have him on our sidelines.
Put points on the board. No one has a stellar defense with all the rule changes.
Score score score some more.
And how many plays has Spiller made in the NFL?
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by Jonathan Loesche on Apr 15, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
MJD wasn't picked in the top-10, or even in the first round.
Sorry – AD? And Taylor and Emmitt? Are you seriously going to compare Spiller to the two greatest UF running backs? Taylor and Smith were, like, perfect, pro-typical every downs backs. Size, speed, strength… If you want to throw names out there, I wouldn’t throw names that make CJ sound worse. Smith was picked 17th overall and Taylor 9th. This was at a point in time when RBs were more important to the game than they are today (don’t take my statement wrong, because it is true).
Honestly, if Christ Johnson hadn’t had a crazy season, we wouldn’t even be talking about this, because CJ’d be ranked no higher than 20 on most boards.
by alwaysforgiven821 on Apr 15, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Great article. Rec'd.
I don’t understand why it’s so hard to understand why you grade players and then break ties towards the premium positions. If a RB and LT are both 9/10, you can find other RBs nearly as good later in the draft, but rarely do you find great LTs in the nether regions of the draft. Hence, it is better value to pick the premium position. The end. No one should be confused by this.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Apr 15, 2010 2:05 PM EDT reply actions
Nobody should be confused by any of this
but the problem is, no 2 people will ever rank the first round the same, let alone the entire draft.
Under the BAP philosophy, Gene Smith’s board would be the same if he were the GM of any NFL team, not just the Jaguars.
Peterson?
As a pure runner with the ball, I think Adrian Peterson is the best. However as an all around player, MJD is better IMO.
MJD is amazing k
To be amazing u have to be able to do everything good. Which AP can’t hang on to da ball good so therefore, hes not amazing in my opinion.But MJD, on da other can.
Reppin SD (Z-G)
Adrian Peterson of the Bears yea
but not the purple 28 MJD would be more effective if he has a worthy complement.
by MikeThomasSlotReceiver on Apr 16, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
he is
The point was he’s not waayy better. I’d say they’re neck and neck. MJD did a lot with nothing and took the whole offense in his hands at times. I think too much can be asked of him and he needs a complement. The change of pace will make him more effective MJD is a stud and AP is a stud. I’m sure AP will meet up with Tiki and cure his fumblitis.
by MikeThomasSlotReceiver on Apr 17, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
personally
I absolutly do not like the pick of Spiller at #10 when your team needs a o lineman a mlb a safety and a DE. Plus who ever is picked in the first round needs to be someone who can start from day 1 and make an impact right away and I do agree that bringing in CJ will not sit well with MJD stick with bap and move on (I like the idea of traden down and getting marucie pouncy from florida)
by jesusjagfan2009 on Apr 16, 2010 12:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
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