Jacksonville Jaguar Season Projections
by Jonathan Loesche on Aug 30, 2010 7:55 PM EDT
in Jacksonville Jaguars Off-Topic
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I've always been a big fan of Wisdom of Crowds. In short, the idea is that collectively as a crowd we know more than any one person individually. I would like to use that to figure out how the Jaguars will do this season. What I would like for everyone to do is reply with their guesses as to the following stats, and then we'll average them out, and compare to how we did at the end of the season.
What I want everyone to comment on
Garrard: Yards, Touchdowns, INTs
MJD: Yards, Carries, TDs
MSW: Receptions, yards, TDs
# of Sacks by the defense
Overall record
We'll need at least 50 responses for anything close to a decent sample size, so please comment.
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I'll start
Garrard: 3200 yards, 16 TDs, 10 INTs
MJD: 1430 yards, 220 carries, 17 TDs
MSW: 71 receptions, 1140 yards, 8 TDs
32 sacks
8-8
Big Cat Country, The #1 Jaguars blog on the net
by Jonathan Loesche on Aug 30, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions
I follow
David: 3500 yard 24 TD (Franchise record!) 19 INT
MJD: 1225 yard 15 TD (Is that surpassing Fred?)
MSW 8 TD 925 yards
31 sacks
7-9 (too hard schedule & too bad secondary)
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
Follow me on twitter @iktriad
by Zoltan from Budapest on Aug 30, 2010 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
74 reps for MSW
And MJD surpasing with the 15 TD Fred’s franchise TD record?
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
Follow me on twitter @iktriad
by Zoltan from Budapest on Aug 30, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
MJD will have 275 carries
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
Follow me on twitter @iktriad
by Zoltan from Budapest on Aug 30, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
no way
Garrard will now throw anywhere near 19 ints as long as he has some time
by DadeCountyJag on Aug 30, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
David? 3250 yards 25 TDs and 13 INTs
Mojo? 250 for 1200 yards and 10 TDs (his injury streak might be over, i say he misses maybe 3-4 games?)
MSW? 70 for 1020 yards and 6 TDs (leads all Jag recievers for yardage only)
I would say 32 sacks, leader either AluAlu or Kampman with 5
9-7 (Cardiac Cats or bust)
Waber-Jaguar
Ok my turn
garrard: 3150 yds, 17 td, 12 int
MJD: 1150 yd, 250 carries, 12 tds
MSW: 6 td, 900 yds
sacks – 25
record 6-10
Garrard: 3600 yards, 17TD, 13INT
MJD: 300 carries, 1300 yards, 16TD
MSW: 79 catches, 1100 yards, 7TD
by Alfie Crow on Aug 30, 2010 8:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Do you think we're all being overly hopeful on the sack total?
I’m serious. I kind of feel like we are. What’s your opinion?
Our sack total
was unusually low last year and probably more of an outlier. We were probably more of a 20 sack team that lost some sacks to penalties and quick draw QB’s like Warner and injuries to key players like Hayward. In other words, if we just played last season over again with the same players we probably would have gotten somewhere closer to 20 sacks just because the ball would have rolled differently. In any case, I think the DL will kind of have a symbiotic increase. By that I mean we’ll see an increase by more than the sum of the parts. AK helps Harvey and Harvey and AK help the DT’s and vice versa.
Through my teal colored glasses.....
Garrard 3800 yds. 22 td’s 8 int’s
MJD 288 carries 1111 yds 13 td’s
MSW 77 catches 1025 yds 7 td’s
35 sacks
10-6
David: 3450 yards, 20 TDs, 11 picks
Mojo: 280 carries, 1288 yards, 16 TDs
MSW: 65 catches, 1364 yards, 12 TDs
30 sacks
6-10
That’s uh… A LOT of YPC or MSW lol
by Alfie Crow on Aug 30, 2010 8:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I Like The idea
Remember I’m predicting a more pass oriented offense this year.
Garrard: 4100 yards, 21 TDs, 13 Ints.
MJD: 1200 yards, 225 rushes, 9 TDs (70 Catches)
MSW: 75 Catches, 1100 yards, 7 TDs
30 Sacks
10-6
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
If Garrard throw for more than 4000 yards, I’ll eat my hat.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~Carl Sagan
I Think That's Only About...
30 more yards per game than last year. Not that far-fetched, considering most of his targets have one more year under their belt and improved protection from the O Line..
Damn...
It’s only 25 more yards per game. I didn’t realize he threw for almost 3600 yards last season. Still…I stand by my previous statement.
Not my good hat though.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~Carl Sagan
ok
Garrard: 3400 yds, 21 TD’s, 12 INT’s
MJD: 1480 Yds, 260 Rushes, 14 TD’s
MSW: 78 Rec, 950 Yds, 8 TD’s
37 Sacks
8-8 Record
I also feel obligated to put Mike Thomas’s Projections because i feel he will finish the year better than MSW
Mike Thomas: 93 Rec,1150 Yds, 12 TD’s
E
i respect your opinion but you're out of oyur mind on the receiver's position
Barring that MSW isn’t injured he is going to have better numbers than Mike Thomas no doubt about it. You seem to think differentlyso please explain your reason behind it?
by leopold332002 on Aug 30, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i respect your opinion but you're out of your mind on the receiver's position
Barring that MSW isn’t injured he is going to have better numbers than Mike Thomas no doubt about it. You seem to think differently so please explain your reason behind it?
by leopold332002 on Aug 30, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Its possible
That Mike Thomas has more catches than MSW. The way they use him in the short passing game could really ramp up his catches fast if the offense looks anything like it did in Tampa.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
I think
MSW has more yards and TDs though.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
I just think
I just think MSW is going to play on the outside all year. Thomas can play the outside and run in the slot. I think he gets some better mismatches and catches more short crossing patterns. David likes to check down to the safe receiver, and I think Thomas could thrive in this roll, similar to a poor mans Welker/ poor mans Steve Smith all in one. Thats how he catches more, i think he gets the yards in some deep throws and running away from the linebackers playing those shorter patterns. Between screens, deep patterns and the fact the MSW is our clear number one and could get a little more attention from defensive coordinators, i think Thomas sees the end zone more than MSW. I have no crystal ball, its just a scenerio i wouldnt be suprised by if it played out.
E
duvaljag projections
Garrard- 3450 yds, 19 TD’s 12 INTS
MJD- 268 rushes 1180 yards, 15 TDS
MSW- 72 Catches 880 yards 9 TDS
36 Sacks
10-6 record
duval u got us winning the division with that record?
by DadeCountyJag on Aug 30, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Are the Colts still in the division?
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~Carl Sagan
i think its possible
but i would not bet against manning. hes hurt us too many times. with as young as we are just getting in at 10-6 or 9-7 will be a great success and i think it will happen
Garrard: 3050 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs
MJD: 1350 yards, 280 carries, 18 TDs
MSW: 62 receptions, 830 yards, 5 TDs
30 sacks
6-10 record
"Do I need to be liked? Absolutely not! I like to be liked, I enjoy being liked, I have to be liked. But it's not like this compulsive need to be liked...like my need to be praised." Michael Scott
Good catch Alfie
MSW: 65 catches, 1040 yards (had some bad math for dinner) … I do like him for 15-16 yards per catch.
Yeah I was like..“that’s… 20.9 ypc!”
by Alfie Crow on Aug 30, 2010 9:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Imma say...
Garrard: 3750 yards, 27 TD’s, 8 Ints
MJD: 1380 yards, 262 carries, 15 TD’s(Pro Bowl)
MSW: 82 Rec. 1180 Yards 13 TD’s(Pro Bowl)
34 Sacks (AK 13, TA 10, and the other 11 spread out throughout the other defenders)
11-5, winners of the AFC south. 2. Titans 3. Texans 4. Colts (You’ll see)
Garrard: 3800 yards, 18 TDs, 10 INTs
MJD: 1275, 284, 13 TDs
MSW: 75, 900 yards, 4
- of Sacks by the defense: 22
Overall record: 7-9
Surprise of the year: No surprise to us, but Deji Karim returns 1 for a TD and averages over 30 yards/kick return.
Ignore the hype; look at the results.
unbelievable
u guys really expect another mediocre (8-8) year, why? Is the the liablities of our pass defense/rush
Defense
I think the offense will be respectable. I think they’ll be borderline top 10.
The defense is still a mess. No Depth at Linebacker, inexperienced d-line, and secondary is a nightmare. Cox is going to have a hard year (sophomore slump).
I also expect, while the d-line is immensely more talented than last year, that they will struggle against the run the first half of the year. I think the defense in the second half of the season will gel and be much better, but the defense will be in the bottom half, possibly quarter, of the league.
I hope I can eat my words. I haven’t had dinner yet.
Ignore the hype; look at the results.
maybe
Dave- 3607 yds, 19 tds, 10 ints
Mojo- 255 carries, 1324 yds, 13 tds
Walker- 76 rec, 968 yds
sacks- 31
record 8-8
Can't stand the truth?
Garrard: 3850 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs
MJD: 1475 yards, 315 carries, 15 TDs
MSW: 79 receptions, 950 yards, 7 TDs
28 sacks
10-6 record
One suggestion, the yards for Mojo are rushing only, right? That should probably be noted.
DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUVAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAL!
by DownTownJax on Aug 30, 2010 9:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Garrard: 3650 passing, 25 TD, 12 Int
MJD: 265 carries 1215 yards (35 catches 400 yds)
MSW: 750 yards 5 TD 60 receptions (misses 2 games) (Thomas will have 70 catches and become the McCardell to MSW’s Smith)
30 sacks
Record: 10-6 (wildcard berth; beat NE lose to Baltimore)
some other random predictions (for fun)
Deji Karim becomes the new Dante Hall of the NFL. Fans will love him. Jags will have a punt return for a TD and a kickoff for a TD.
Tyson Alualu puts at least one qb on IR (my money is on Jake Delhomme) and an idiot in the stands in a grass skirt spontaneously combusts.
The Tennessee Monday nighter becomes our Houston Oilers-Miami Dolphins 1978 watershed game to signify that we are back as a fanbase and not going anywhere. (Yes I realize the Oilers moved in the mid nineties, but Weaver is not the crazy ass that Bud Adams is)
**Most importantly, no blackouts!!!
DG: 3650, 22 TD/ 8 picks
MJD: 1375 yards, 17 TD
MSW: 75 catches, 975 yards (I didn’t do the math, I don’t know what that is per catch avg)
Defense: 35 sacks
Record: 19-0
(Just kidding, 10-6, but that is overly hopeful)
my 2 cents
Garrard: 3800 yds, 22 TDs, 9 Ints
MJD: 1280 yds, 4.6 Ave, 19 TDs rushing, plus a couple or so receiving.
MSW: 78 Rec, 1040 yds, 9 TDs
Garrard: 4061 yards, 19 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
MJD: 1293 yards, 397, 17 TDs
MSW: 80 catches, 1037 yards
Sacks: 31
If Garrard manages to go over 4000 then I will bet money that he has more than 20 tds.
All these other predictions seem right on to me except I predict less than 30 sacks. Thats still a big improvement.
I say Garrard gets around 3700 to 3800 yds and 21 tds. Theres a possibility that MSW and Thomas reach 1000 yds each.
Keep in mind
Garrard can get the yardage between the 20’s, but MJD’s bread and butter is inside the 20.
Garrard: 3900 yards, 17 TDs, 13 INTs
MJD: 1150 yards, 270 carries, 14 TDs
MSW: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 6 TDs
36 sacks
8-8 record
Yes I think MJD will have a down year rushing wise, and yes I think many other receiving targets will emerge. I consider 9-7 VERY optimistic, and even though I’m a fan, .500 is the best I could honestly hope for.
Where the hell did my Teal Glasses go!?
Garrard: 3000 yds, 14 TDs, 10 INTs
MJD: 1120 yds, 320 carries, 14 TDs
MSW: 950 Yds, 6 TDs, 77 Receptions
Sacks: 32
Record: 6-10
Pros: D-line and OT’s are looking at a bright future, MJD puts up another 1,000 yd season, WR’s are now legit, best ST unit in the league, Linebackers were a strong, deep group.
Cons: Interior O-line crumbled often which meant Garrard was pressured into throws and MJD had nowhere to run, the lack of a legitimate threat at Safety was an Achilles heel to this teams poor record.
Go Big or Go Home!
HERE WE GO !!!
Garrard: 4,200 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs
MJD: 1,370 yards, 280 carries, 14 TDs
MSW: 85 receptions, 1,045 yards, 7 TDs
39 sacks
9-7
I'll play
Garrard: 3900 yards, 20 TDs, 11 INTs
MJD: 1300 yards, 220 carries (Jenning carries a bit more this year), 14 TDs
MSW: 90 receptions, 1250 yards, 10 TDs
37 sacks, but lots of QB pressure
9-7
guessing
Garard: 3,907 yards, 27 TDs, 10 INTs
MJD: 1390 yards, 240 carries, 16 TDs
MSW: 70 receptions, 895 yards, 5 TDs, believe Dillard and Thomas will have about the same amount of receptions
28 sacks
10-6
Mine
Luke McCown: o wait……….
David Garrad:3100 17 12
MJD 1510 230 22
MSW 79 1010 9
8-8
SCALP'EM
2010 New Beginning in Tallahassee
Ponder for Heisman'10
RIP John Wooden
We're a better team than last year
Garrard: 3500, 23, 11
MJD: 1500, 275, 14
MSW: 75, 1000, 8
30 Sacks by the defense
9-7 maybe a 10-6 if we can get better secondary play
WTF IS THE INTERNET?!?
Dreaming on but ready for dissapointing season again-"BUT"
Garrard: Yards, 3333 Touchdowns 7, INTs 11
MJD: Yards, 1333 Carries, 300 TDs, 13
MSW: Receptions, 60 yards, 1245 TDs, 9
- of Sacks by the defense I have HIGH hopes for new “D” 33
Overall record:-)..10 – 6 wishfull thinking but ya never know
by dissapointedagain on Aug 31, 2010 7:45 AM EDT reply actions
Not very good at this, but here it goes...
DG: Y 4000, TD 20, Int 5
MJD: Y 1575, C 350, TD 20
MSW: R 96, Y 1728, TD 14
Sacks: 42
Record: 10 -6, with slight possibility of 11-5 (Need a win in SD or NY for that!)
Need help crunching these numbers?
I am going to fall into the minority.
Garrard: 3300 Yards, 19 Touchdowns, 13 INTs
MJD: 1220 Yards, 280 Carries, 11 TDs
MSW: 80 Receptions, 1150 yards, 9 TDs
32 Sacks by the defense
Overall record 7-9
Tougher schedule than last year. Even if team has improved their talent vs opponent talent doesn’t show me more than 7 wins.
The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.
Vince Lombardi
My personal blog:
by Brian Fullford on Aug 31, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
I would love to see a poll taken....
that showed what the BCC faithful felt about each game. 2 guys may both think 10 – 6, or 9 – 7, or whatever, but what games do they think are wins and which are losses? We could come up with stats like 75% of BCC thinks this game is a win, or something like that. This may be too hard to do, but I think it would be interesting!
I'll start...someone do some math when we get alot of samples.
8-8
Denver – W
SD – L
Philly – L
Indy – W
Buffalo – W
Tenn – W
Kansas – W
Dallas – L
Houston – W
Cleveland – W
NYG – L
Tenn – L
Oak – W
Indy – L
Wash – L
Houston – L
May not be the right forum for it....but here I go.....
10 – 6
Denver – W
SD – L
Philly – W
Indy – W
Buffalo – W
Tenn – W
KC – W
Dallas – L
Houston – W
Cleveland – W
New York – L
Tenn – L
Oakland – W
Indy – L
Washington – W
Houston – L
season record
Denver – W
SD – L
Philly – L
Indy – W
Buffalo – W
Tenn – W
KC – W
Dallas – L
Houston – W
Cleveland – W
New York – W
Tenn – L
Oakland – W
Indy – L
Washington – L
Houston – W
Wild Card
@ New England W
@ Baltimore L
Garrard: 3,850 Yards, 24 Total TD’s(4 rushing), 12 INTS
MJD: 1350 Yards, 15 TD’s, 55 REC
MSW: 81 Catches, 1050 Yards, 9 TD’s
26 Sacks
9-7
Wouldn’t be suprised to see Garrard to worse than this, and wouldn’t be suprised to see MJD do better. I think I’m being a little harsh with the sack total and optimistic with the record given the schedule.
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