John Clayton Ranks NFL QB's, Where's Garrard fall?
by Alfie Crow on Aug 31, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in Jacksonville Jaguars News
Email
Print
John Clayton of ESPN came out with his annual quarterback rankings.
So, where does Jacksonville Jaguars David Garrard fit in?
Here is where Clayton puts David Garrard:
20. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Analysis:This might be his final season as the Jags' starter, but don't underestimate him. He is a good leader and still has the ability to complete 60 percent of his passes.
Chance of being elite: 5 percent
Clayton puts the quarterbacks in three divisions: the elite, the Chad Pennington division, and the hit-or-miss division. He put Garrard in the Pennington division.
The next category is what I call the Chad Pennington Division. Pennington, a former starter who's now a backup with the Dolphins, doesn't have the strongest arm but he once was good enough to take a team to the playoffs with a good surrounding cast or a favorable schedule. The quarterbacks who fit this mold include Denver's Kyle Orton, who I think has a very small chance even now to end up in the elite group.
I don't necessarily disagree, though I would place David Garrard ahead of Vince Young, who falls in at 18.
64 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
He's got it about right...
… although I’d put David ahead of both Vince Young and Jason Campbell. And from what I’ve seen this pre-season of Aaron Rodgers I’d definitely put him ahead of Favre and Rothlisberger. What a release that guy has.
I have some trouble.....
with Jay Cutler in front of David, and some of the other guys in that category. I have never been that impressed with him. I also agree with ruffdaddy about Rogers. I really thought he looked great against the Colts, and it pumped me up a bit about our first game against them. The perfect scenario is for David to have a 2007 year, we manage through some means to get a great young gun in next years draft, and David be the mentor for a year as he backs up with another great year. If that happens, I think the problems with this franchise in this town are over, and it is very do-able!
Accurate
It doesn’t really matter if he should be ahead of one guy or the other. You could take every guy from 16-22 and rank them 16a, 16b, etc and be done with it. Cutler is really the only guy in that middle group with a chance at being a top flight QB.
I see no chance of Cutler being elite....
The only stat that he beats David on is TD’s, and I know that’s a big one, but I have to believe that having MJD may be a big reason that DG does not throw for as many TD’s as others. DG’s QB rating is better, and his INT’s are 1/3 of Cutler’s for last year. I just don’t see much in Jay Cutler, but that’s my opinion.
TDs
Cutler has 72 TDs in the last three years. Garrard has 66 in his career.
by Fivus Viener on Aug 31, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
OK....
Cutler has 81 in his career compared to DG having the 66 you listed. Comparing INT’s, JC’s has 63 vs. DG’s 39. There QB ratings are almost Identical, with a slight edge to David. They both were 7 – 9 last year…..
My question to you is why you see Cutler so much better than David? You may answer the increased number of TD’s, but if you throw it to the opponent a bunch more times, it kind of negates that for me. I have just been really baffled by peoples love of Cutler, because I just don’t see him getting it done. To each his own.
What people see in him is the famous upside. Cutler can make it all, he has all the tools to be a top 5 QB in this league and i think pretty much everyone agrees with it. But you are right, til now that didn’t translate and although he has all the talent, he makes a number of stupid decisions on game day, that destroyed the Bears last season and it has to be considered.
I still think he will manage to erase many of those mistakes and make it to the top where he should be, i see the position he was listed as fair.
"Do I need to be liked? Absolutely not! I like to be liked, I enjoy being liked, I have to be liked. But it's not like this compulsive need to be liked...like my need to be praised." Michael Scott
I think you have to include
football intelligence in “all the tools”. Heck, it’s one of the more important ones.
DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's and LB's ability to cover a TE.
I would agree.....
and a load of INT’s seems to indicate that might be lacking in Mr. Cutler’s tool box!
Fair enough. I just don’t see lack of football intelligence, i do think he commits many mistakes for trying too much and he may/may not overcome this.
"Do I need to be liked? Absolutely not! I like to be liked, I enjoy being liked, I have to be liked. But it's not like this compulsive need to be liked...like my need to be praised." Michael Scott
Don't forget
Cutler had ZERO protection last year. He proved he had the goods with Denver in multiple seasons with an o line. I don’t feel like looking up the stats, but I believe last year was the first (read: only) year where his TD/INT ratio was abysmal.
by JohnnyBiceps on Aug 31, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If Garrard can't use that excuse
than neither can Cutler
DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's and LB's ability to cover a TE.
This.
To help you out with stats from the 3 years of Cutler as a full-time starter (2007-2009):
His INTs have risen from 14 (already high) to 18 to 26.
Completion % has dropped from 63.6% to 62.3% to 60.5%.
Yards/Attempt have fallen from 7.5 to 7.3 to 6.6.
Passer rating has declined from 88.1 to 86.0 to 76.8.
To compare with David for those three seasons:
INTs – 3, 13, 10.
Comp% – 64.0, 62.6, 60.9
Y/A – 7.7, 6.8, 7.0.
PRtg – 102.2, 81.7, 83.5
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Aug 31, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Why didn’t you post TDs? Cutler’s TD numbers the last three years would have been the three highest in team history if he was a Jaguar.
by Fivus Viener on Aug 31, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
TD’s are pretty big stat to leave out of a stat based argument
by JohnnyBiceps on Aug 31, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Cutler CAN use that excuse
Because he performed at a high level for more than one fluke year (only 3 INT’s? C’mon – that has horseshoe plastered all over it). Moreover, JC switched teams, cities, personnel, coaches, etc, etc, etc
by JohnnyBiceps on Aug 31, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, did he?
Did you look at the stats starting from when Cutler became a full-time starter in 2007? Because the stats say that Garrard has had a better completion % all three years and a better passer rating 2 of the 3 years. David’s never even had 14 interceptions in a season, and that was Cutler’s lowest number. I specifically posted the yards/attempt numbers because in spite of 1) how people rave about Cutler’s deep arm and 2) how much David gets hit for supposedly not throwing a good deep ball, Garrard has posted a higher Y/A average two of the past three seasons. Even with the 27 TDs (against 26 INTs), Garrard outperforms Cutler. And Cutler has never been to the playoffs.
So, really, your argument has absolutely no legs to stand on.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Aug 31, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm typically not a stats guy but...
07-09
Cutler had 72 touchdowns, Garrard had 48. That 50% more. Let’s call that the right leg.
Cutler passed for 11,689, Garrard passed for 9726. That’s about 20% more. We’ll call that guy “Leftie.”
The INT’s and passer rating clearly favor Garrard, that’s why this is even a debate. But to say there are “absolutely no legs to stand on?” Hmmm, a podiatrist you are not…
by JohnnyBiceps on Aug 31, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
As I said below, it matters HOW you do what you do.
Racking up TDs and yards (and not having Maurice Jones-Drew on your team) at the expense of interceptions and inefficiency isn’t impressive to me. Hey, we disagree. We’ll see how it turns out. I actually loved Cutler coming out of Vanderbilt, but with each passing year I sour more and more on him.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Sep 1, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Cutler
If you read what I wrote, I never said anything about Cutler being “so much better than David”. I said out of the QBs listed in the middle group, Cutler is the only guy with a chance to be on the elite level. He’s five years younger than David and obviously has superior physical skills.
by Fivus Viener on Aug 31, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that if you feel he is the one out of the group that can be elite...
you have clearly expressed that he is better than David, which is your opinion, to which you are entitled. As far as the superior skills, I will have to see if his production stops declining, and he turns himself around before I can give you that one.
By skills he means
physical skills. Or so I believe. And I agree his arm is a tad bit better. In particular, he throws better on the run than Garrard does. But Garrard probably makes up for that by being the better runner.
@ GAJAGFAN
Cutler has superior skills. It is obvious and you’re only kidding yourself if you feel otherwise. And what do you mean by ‘declining production’? His INTs were high last year but he threw 27 TDs. That is 7 more than any QB in Jaguars history has every thrown in a season.
If he can get any kind of protection this year, he should put up some monster numbers in Martz’s offense. Adding Chester Taylor should help also.
by Fivus Viener on Aug 31, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
His QB rating has dropped for the last 3 years....
I agree he threw a bunch of TD’s. My problem with Cutler, and having been raised in Chicago I watch the bears when I get a chance, is that his bad always seemed to out way, or at least negate, the good. I will give you that an elite QB has to have a given skill set, and maybe he has that, but just having that skill set does not make you elite. Until I see him get rid of the bad parts of his game (like INTs) I see no way he can ever be elite. Do you disagree with that? Fivus, out scoring the other team wins the game, not throwing more TD’s. Throwing INTs does not help that. For a QB to be elite in my book, he has to win games, and Cutler did not do that last year, and in fact contributed to the losses with is bad decisions.
It doesn't matter if you throw 27 TDs if you also throw 26 INTs.
People always hammer Garrard for inconsistency. What’s more inconsistent than bunches of TDs ruined by bunches of interceptions as your passer rating continuously declines over the course of three seasons in two different locations?
“Declining production” refers to the fact that his numbers have gone down in four different important areas that each matter at least as much as TDs.
Garrard has had a better completion % all three years and a better passer rating 2 of the 3 years. He’s never had 14 interceptions in a season, and that was Cutler’s outlier best number. I specifically posted the yards/attempt numbers because in spite of 1) how people rave about Cutler’s deep arm and 2) how much David gets hit for supposedly not throwing a good deep ball, Garrard has posted a higher Y/A average two of the past three seasons. So uh…whatever those “superior skills” might be, they’re clearly not translating into tangible results.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Aug 31, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
TDs
Cutler only had 3 less TDs last season than Garrard has had the last two seasons combined.
And how can you say a stat like passer rating is matters as much as TD passes?
Because it matters HOW you do something.
I could be on a team that throws it 100% of the time and rack up all team TDs as passing touchdowns. Let’s say that’s 50 TDs. I would also probably have a lot of yards. But the other team would know that I’m passing every single down, so I’d also rack up a lot of interceptions, incompletions, and in all probability losses. That is why you have to take all statistics in context. Passer rating by itself doesn’t matter much – a punter throwing a TD pass on a fake punt will have a perfect 158.3 – but touchdown passes by themselves don’t give you a full picture either.
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Sep 1, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You know
I’m not saying David is elite by any means, but think about this. We got rid of all of the receivers from the 2007 year, the year David looked mighty. So it wasn’t the receivers right? It was a good line, a great running game, and David making good decisions. Since then, we’ve had a line in decline, no Freddy T, and a declining Defense that has forced us to play from behind. Which, if you recall, was already in decline in 2007.
So as our o-line gets back together and healthy, as new running threats emerge so D’s don’t key on Mojo, and as our receivers mature, David might start to look mighty again. It’s a big MIGHT, but it could happen.
the other thing
Was DG seemingly couldn’t throw an INT in ‘07. That’s an anomaly for any QB and boarders on sheer luck. If his INT count had been on par with the league average the dream year may niot have been. As with anything uncommonly lucky, that luck runs out. Enter ‘08 and ’09. Here’s to hoping lightning strikes again in ’10
by JohnnyBiceps on Aug 31, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds about right. Although i would already put Henne ahead of him, and Vince Young and Jason Campbel for sure don’t belong there, they are both worse than that. Palmer is also a bit overrated IMO.
"Do I need to be liked? Absolutely not! I like to be liked, I enjoy being liked, I have to be liked. But it's not like this compulsive need to be liked...like my need to be praised." Michael Scott
Ha......... The Chad Pennington Division
I love it!
frankDUBZ aka Frank Silba
"I'm smacking you with the truth......" - Me
Vince Young at 18?
What a joke. I think he will struggle alot this year. Eli Manning at 11 is a reach, everyone jumped on him when they won the super bowl but that winning drive had the luckiest catch ever and a few horrible throws that should have been picked. Henne should be alot higher, he sure does look elite against us.
I think
John Clayton throws around the “elite” label way too much, but then again, our world is one of hyperbole and lists.
When it comes to elite quarterbacks, I can only think of maybe 5 or 6. My definition of elite is once you get there, you don’t lose that label unless you putz around for 5 years and go Steve Blass.
My list of current “elite” qbs is:
Brady
P. Manning
Favre – too many “F*** it!” throws.
Ben Roethlisberger
Brees
E. Manning (If Brees, then gotta include Eli)- can’t discount the ring and the moxie in that game.
Almost there (near the top of the mountain either side)
“The Danny’s (Marino and Fouts)”:
McNabb – best days behind him?
Rivers
Romo
Rodgers
Ryan
Flacco
C. Palmer
Schaub
Next big thing
“The Joe Namath Divison”
Henne
Stafford
Kolb
Bradford
Maybe next big thing
“The Greg Cook Divison”
Sanchez
Freeman
M. Moore/ Claussen
A. Smith
Jury’s out
“the Jim Everett Division”
Cutler
Orton
V. Young
J. Campbell
Garrard
Delhomme
Cassell
Hasselbeck
We’re screwed!
“Spurgeon Wynn Memorial Division”
Leinart/ D. Anderson
Edwards
Damn! Shocked I got all 32 teams on the first try. Not including the Steelers pupu platter of Leftwich, Dixon or Batch) as they are probably all in the jury’s out category and it’d make 33.
Probably similar to Clayton’s list, but that’s how I see it. Any more than 6 quarterbacks, especially putting in guys without rings (that they themselves commandeered their teams to) waters down the list.
Write this up as a FanPost and I’ll FP it.
by Alfie Crow on Aug 31, 2010 12:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rodgers is elite, and so is Rivers.
Ryan is not in that company. He should be in an entire category to himself “Pretty Good”.
"He is a good leader and still has the ability to complete 60 percent of his passes."
See here is the problem I have with that and misleading stats in general.
Garrard has the appearance of an accurate QB because 99% of his passes are under 10 yards. It would be interesting to find a statistic on the number of times he has thrown <5, <10, <15, <30, ignoring those with YAC.
Maybe I’ll spend the season analyzing how DG passes. Does he take the easy dump off for fear of making a mistake, or does he get the ball down the field, what kind of coverage is he throwing into, etc etc.
Maybe it doesn’t make sense to do this considering he will likely be gone next year or relegated to back up duty but I think most if everything about DG is misleading.
Do you see the short passes....
being a result of last years poor line play, and that as his confidence gets back in this years line, he will take more shots down the field? I think that would be interesting to chart. But to be honest, if a short dump to a guy like MJD, or a quick slant to a receiver gets 10 – 15 yards, I have no complaints. Ball control can go a long way to winning a game.
They seldom get that much.
The short passing game crowds the line and doesn’t help the defense play honest, and because David has a penchant for telegraphing his throws the opposing defense would have many opportunities to grab a pick, especially if they bait him into throwing in a zone. Also, David wastes a bunch of time on the clock, driving down the field and not scoring. Ball control only works if you punch it in every time, score TDs, and continue to score. If we have to play from behind we are in big trouble.
If you start out playing a ball control game....
and keep field position in your favor, you do not need to “punch it in every time” to win. Our improved special teams will also help that. A competent short game, or ball control game, will free up the long game. I know its fun to watch long passes, but the control game can be effective too.
I'm glad you are not the head coach.
We’d be the south’s version of the lions.
Touchdowns win games. My argument isn’t even about long passes. If you can’t throw beyond the first down marker because you are scared you are going to get picked on every play it can really hamper your ability to win games.
I am glad I am not the head coach too!!!!
In fact, I am glad no one from this site is the head coach!!!! DG can throw beyond the first down marker with accuracy and gets it done. You know that. I know you watch the games. I am also fairly confident that 99% of his passes, as you claim, are less than 10 yards, but i have not done the research, and doubt you did either.
My point in this is that DG can, and has, lead this team to the playoffs playing his game. I am confident with the improved supporting cast that he can do it again. You may or may not agree, but soon we will find out!
Getting more points than
your opponents wins games, not touchdowns. However you do that is your prerogative. You can win with most any strategy as long as you execute.
newsflash -
for the past two years – we HAVE been the Souths version of the Lions – last place finishers – only better win / loss record
Good grief
Where on earth did you get this “99% of his passes are under 10 yards” from? I know you have a problem with Garrard, but there is no need to make stuff up as you go along. Garrard has plenty of faults, but he does make longer than 10 yard passes fairly often.
Sort of off-topic, but related: I remember after the disastrous Cardinals game last year getting into a discussion with someone about how much Garrard sucked because he just wasn’t throwing the ball down field the way Warner was. The conversation came to an ubprut end when I pointed out that Warner, in fact, had only 2 completed passes of more than 20 yards (both went for 22 yards, but neither were 22 yard throws). In fact, Garrard threw further, more often. Warner absolutely killed us… with tons of short throws. Somehow, fan perception did not match up with the facts. It seems the average Jags fan automatically assumes that the opposing QB is throwing 20 deep bombs a game against us, while Garrard has never thrown anything longer than 10 yards…. and this is what they “see” because it’s what they expect.
I think it's a product
of seeing so many highlights on TV. All they ever show is 50 yard bombs when they don’t realize is that rarely do QB’s attempt passes that long.
QBs
-Elite, doesn’t need SB Ring-
P. Manning
Brady
Brees
Favre
Rodgers
McNabb
Roethlisberger
Rivers
-some drop off, but could be elite
Schuab
Romo
Palmer (had a lot of potential when he first came out)
-somewhat bigger drop off-
Ryan
Flacco
Kolb
Bradford
Henne
Culter
Orton
Hasselbeck (could have been elite)
Delhomme
-large drop off—
Garrard
Cassell
Campbell
Moore
Young
Smith
Sanchez
Edwards
Worst in League
Leinart/Anderson
Why do players
like McNabb get granfathered in for what they’ve done in the past while the younger guys get credit for what they haven’t even done yet? IMO, it’s either one or the other in a list.
actually
unless you did it last year, I don’t think there should be any grandfathering… and no way anyone who’s never done it should be in a top-tier list either.
DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's and LB's ability to cover a TE.
Because
Henne, Bradford, Delhomme, Kolb, and Cutler have shown much better decision making skills? You could argue Bradford and Cutler have greater ability, but the other guys?
Thirty-one comments into a story about Garrard and no one is arguing with Alfie? What is this, opposite day? Well done, gentlemen. Well done.
On a serious tip, I think the ranking is pretty much right on. The only problem I see is David being ranked below VY, that’s just nonsense.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~Carl Sagan
What are you talking about?
Pretty much anyone that says anything good about Garrard is arguing with Alfie. j/k j/k lol
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
