FanPost

Get to the Playoffs in 2011 - All on Garrard or is it going to have to be a TEAM effort (Lets check the stats)

The question : " Can Garrard take this team to the playoffs?"

One side says NO - Its all his fault and it's that simple.

The other says YES - Its a TEAM sport and all the pieces have to be there.

One side says : " We need a new QB - Garrard can't get it done "

The other says : " Of course he can't get it done, the O-line has him on his ass.. hard to throw when your running for your life"

So lets compare all the facts.. QB stats, team stats, and where the teams all ended the year.

Lets look at the playoff teams, thier QBs and what defenses they had...

 Name G Int  FumL  TOTAL AVG/G Def Playoff
 Mark Sanchez 16 13 1 14 0.9 3 AFCC
 Ben Roethlisberger 12 5 3 8 0.7 2 AFCC
 Jay Cutler 15 16 6 22 1.5 9 NFCC
 Aaron Rodgers 15 11 1 12 0.8 5 NFCC
 Matt Hasselbeck 14 17 5 22 1.6 27 DVX
 Joe Flacco 16 10 4 14 0.9 10 DVX
 Matt Ryan 16 9 3 12 0.8 16 DVX
 Tom Brady 16 4 1 5 0.3 25 DVX
 Drew Brees 16 22 2 24 1.5 4 WCX
 Peyton Manning 16 17 1 18 1.1 20 WCX
 Michael Vick 12 6 3 9 0.8 12 WCX
 Matt Cassel 15 7 1 8 0.5 14 WCX
AVG 0.9 12.3

WCX = Lost Wildcard weekend

DVX = Lost Divisional weekend

AFCC or NFCC means they are in the conference Championship..

With a few exceptions.. It looks like a mistake free QB or a great defense to get in.

By the averages to get in the playoffs requires either less than a turnover a game by your QB or a defense in the top third of the NFL, preferably both.

BUT you HAVE to have a top 10 Defense to get to the Conference Championship game.. PERIOD

OK so lets break down the need of a Mistake Free QB

 Name G Sack  Int  FumL  TOTAL AVG/G AVG/S
 Eli Manning 16 16 25 5 30 1.9 0.5
 Drew Brees 16 25 22 2 24 1.5 1.0
 Brett Favre 13 22 19 5 24 1.8 0.9
 Carson Palmer 16 26 20 3 23 1.4 1.1
 Jay Cutler 15 52 16 6 22 1.5 2.4
 Matt Hasselbeck 14 29 17 5 22 1.6 1.3
 Chad Henne 15 30 19 2 21 1.4 1.4
 Ryan Fitzpatrick 13 24 15 5 20 1.5 1.2
 David Garrard 14 33 15 4 19 1.4 1.7
 Peyton Manning 16 16 17 1 18 1.1 0.9


While we all know Garrard did not play Mistake Free football niether did Brees, Cutler, Hasselbeck, or Manning. 8 other QBs had more turnovers than Garrard so obviously while not mistake free, he isnt alone. 

Of those 8 QBs, the Bears are still in it with Cutler the 5th most mistake prone QB. If you will notice Manning was only one INT away from being tied with Garrard at #9.

Anyway, I hear you.. the turnovers aren't all that make a winning QB. So what about QB Rating..?

Name G QBRat  Int  FumL  TOTAL AVG/G Def
 Tom Brady 16 111.0 4 1 5 0.3 25
 Philip Rivers 16 101.8 13 4 17 1.1 1
 Aaron Rodgers 15 101.2 11 1 12 0.8 5
 Michael Vick 12 100.2 6 3 9 0.8 12
 Ben Roethlisberger 12 97.0 5 3 8 0.7 2
 Josh Freeman 16 95.9 6 3 9 0.6 17
 Joe Flacco 16 93.6 10 4 14 0.9 10
 Matt Cassel 15 93.0 7 1 8 0.5 14
 Matt Schaub 16 92.0 12 3 15 0.9 30
 Peyton Manning 16 91.9 17 1 18 1.1 20
 Matt Ryan 16 91.0 9 3 12 0.8 16
 Drew Brees 16 90.9 22 2 24 1.5 4
 David Garrard 14 90.8 15 4 19 1.4 28

In the QB rating profile.. Garrard comes in at #13 or top half of the league. What I find more interesting.. looking at the QB AND Defensive rank of a team.. it does seem a good Defense makes a QB better. Of course you have your Mannings and Bradys that make a bottom tier Defense look good. But then you have your Drew Brees and Rothlisberger that it could be argued benefit from a top 10 defense.

Last but not least lets look at Sacks.. logic would dictate a bad O-line and your QB is sacked more..

 Name G Sack  Int  FumL  TOTAL AVG/G AVG/S
 Jay Cutler 15 52 16 6 22 1.5 2.4
 Joe Flacco 16 40 10 4 14 0.9 2.9
 Philip Rivers 16 38 13 4 17 1.1 2.2
 Donovan McNabb 13 37 15 1 16 1.2 2.3
 Michael Vick 12 34 6 3 9 0.8 3.8
 Kyle Orton 13 34 9 4 13 1.0 2.6
 Sam Bradford 16 34 15 2 17 1.1 2.0
 Jason Campbell 13 33 8 1 9 0.7 3.7
 Jimmy Clausen 13 33 9 2 11 0.8 3.0
 David Garrard 14 33 15 4 19 1.4 1.7

Two interesting stats I see here..

One most the players with high sack counts are on teams that didnt get anywhere in the playoffs. Exception being the top two, with Cutler still in it.

Cutler and the Bears seem to be proof its definately Defense that win playoff games. As he was the most sacked and gave up some of the highest amount of turn overs.

The other thing to think about is Phillip Rivers played with the #1 Defense, was the #2 rated QB, but was #11 in turnovers &  #3 in sacks.. see a correlation..? Could it be a bad O-line was all it took in San Diego for them to not make the playoffs?

So to wrap this up... statistically what we get is:

Garrard was #9 in losing the ball, while being #10 in sacks, but still was the 13th rated passer in the league. All while playing behind the 28th defense in the league.  

There are only 3 QBs in the league above him statistically that didn't make the playoffs and only 1 in Cutler that did, while the #2 rated QB in the league didn't make it at all, playing with the #1 Defense, the key here is he turned over the ball and was sacked more than Garrard.

So looks like from this angle.. There is NO REASON Garrard can't get us into the playoffs

IF :

1 - The Defense steps it up :

Because if Cutler can get the Bears into the playoffs there is no reason Garrard can't. 

2 - The O-line gets some help and youth : 

Because if Rivers CAN'T get his team into the playoffs with the #1 Defense.. there has to be a reason. 

Statistically you see the formula that wins : A QB that isnt rushed, and a Defense that does. 

Just sayin' maybe its time to look at this as a TEAM effort and quit laying so much on Garrard.   

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.

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