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A realistic look at Blaine Gabbert's 2011 performance.

I would like to say first and foremost this is not an "I told you so" post. Eight weeks is not enough time to know how a QB will do in the NFL over a (hopefully) long career. In fact, I hope I never have to write one and that Blaine Gabbert goes on to be a very successful NFL QB. With that said, it's time we sit and take a realistic look at how Gabbert has performed to this point.

Statistically, Gabbert is not having a good year (duh). He is 128-264 (48.5% completions) for 1,371 yards, 6 TDs and 6 INTs. His 63.6 rating is good for the worst among NFL quarterbacks. The statistics are pretty damning, but I'm fond of saying that "stats lie" and I'm willing to look past the statistics and let you know what I've seen from Gabbert this year.

My pre-draft opinions on Gabbert are known on the site, but I will make an honest attempt to look at Gabbert's performance without any bias.

Don't worry: It's not all bad.

Star-divide

First off, TD passes are a fickle statistic. The difference between a good day for Gabbert and a bad day is Marcedes Lewis dropping or catching a tipped pass in the end zone. (Note: that's not an excuse, and it's unacceptable, but we should recognize that the pass was tipped at the line.) There was at least one more dropped TD pass that I can think of. Blaine could have as many as 8 or 9 TDs through the air.

Of course, the same can be said of interceptions, perhaps more easily. There are always dropped interceptions, and plenty have been dropped this year more than the 6 INTs that are on the stat sheet.

Honestly, though, those stats aren't even remotely important.

What is important are the problems that Gabbert had in college and whether he has addressed them throughout the year. So, what were the concerns coming out of college?

1) A spread QB taking snaps under center. Namely, the center-QB exchange.

2) A QB in a one-read passing system adapting to making 3 or 4 reads in a pro system.

3) Footwork on 3-, 5- and 7-step drops 

4) Getting jumpy in the pocket. 

5) An in-ideal completion percentage at the college level. (Read: Accuracy)

Some amout of progress has been made on all of these issues, but not all equally. I'll write a little bit about each of Gabbert's perceived pre-draft weaknesses to let you know how I think things are going.

1)Taking snaps from center: I thought this was a silly complaint in the first place. Even if a player isn't used to taking snaps under center, which we know that Gabbert wasn't, it doesn't take long for an NFL QB to get used to it. Gabbert is used to it by now. Problem solved.

2) Making second reads: On this, I'm actually encouraged by what I saw after the bye week. Before then, Gabbert really struggled looking past his first receiver. His one-and-run college tendencies returned at points, and just in general, Gabbert rarely looked for a second option or even a check down receiver.

Since week 10, Gabbert has been better about finding 2nd options in the passing game. Marcedes Lewis has caught 10 passes in the last two weeks and in week 11, Gabbert's best statistical week, Blaine found his backs and check down receivers much better. He has improved, but he's still not where he needs to be to be even an average NFL QB.

3) Footwork: This is still a problem. There are times when Gabbert will step into his throws, keep his head up and his weight forward and really put some nice zip on the ball. It's worth stating that when he does these things, it looks beautiful. He's got rare arm strength. Of course, there are still times when he stays back on his heels or just doesn't get himself set correctly. When his technique breaks down, passes sail on him, like the corner route to Marcedes that he overthrew by about five yards yesterday. Overall, I think his footwork is improving, but it's gone up from "terrible" up to "not terrible." It remains to be seen if he can take it from "not terrible" to "good"

4) Getting Jumpy: Gabbert is still pretty jumpy in the pocket. It's something that has been highlighted in recent weeks by analysts. It came up in the Monday Night game, NFL.com had a video talking about it before the Colts game, and even against the Texans it was mentioned on the CBS broadcast. This problem is a hard one to get over. It requires first being comfortable with steps 1-3 and having a natural sense of where defenders are coming from. Not much improvement has been made, but the line hasn't exactly been keeping Gabbert clean either...

5) Accuracy Issues: Yeah... the accuracy issues haven't gone away, and it's because the previous four problems haven't entirely gone away either. It takes a lot of focus and a quarterback who is very comfortable with his footwork to stand back, read the field and put the ball into the small windows that most NFL QB's get. Gabbert, honestly, isn't there yet. That's why he's struggled so much recently.

After being hit early and often against Houston, Gabbert was pulled in favor of Luke McCown. That doesn't mean that Gabbert is not the Jaguars QB, necessarily. I think he will remain the starter unless he gets injured. He is the QB of the future for this team, but with the way he's struggling, sometimes it's better to just say "Good job, kid. Take a seat and let the backup get sacked for a while. You'll get another shot next week."

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very good write up

didnt seem biased at all and was very accurate in my mind good job
he has potential(supposedly) but is playing very poorly only time will tell but IMO he doesnt pass the eye test but i have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future so only time will tell

Cold Blooded

by Jaggaholic82 on Nov 28, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

Nice Job

It would be nice if Gabbert had a legitimate QB coach.

Take stock in your lives, but leave your livestock alone

by MadKow on Nov 28, 2011 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

Say like..

Mike Shula, hear hes doing an OK job with Cam Newton.. wonder where they got him from.. Oh yea.. he was the Jags QB coach last year.. UGH

" I'm not just a Fan.. I'm a Season Ticket Holder"

by Charles Goin on Nov 29, 2011 7:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Alfie, would you mind FPing this?

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Nov 28, 2011 3:03 PM EST reply actions  

Calling for the FP??

Your a bad man

Jersey just got colder

by tiquanunderwear on Nov 28, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

You know

the longer I’m on this website sometimes, the less gratifying it gets to say I told you so. Generally speaking, it’s because I don’t remember who I told without a face to go with the memory of who I told.
I definitely remember telling someone that Gabbert plays like he’s afraid of getting hit and that he didn’t appear as tough as Garrard. Boy did I see a lot of backlsh for that. I doubt anyone would argue with me now. lol
And no this is not a Garrard argument. Just had to do with what I said.

by Ewdtrey on Nov 28, 2011 4:59 PM EST reply actions  

It's hard to go against the grain.

It’s easy to take cheap shots. I don’t mind being against the grain as long as I believe what I’m saying, but I never like piling it on or saying it like an “I told you so.”

I’m learning that if you want to say it, say it.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Nov 29, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions  

It's less about piling on

and more about finally being told you weren’t wrong going against the grain. If it was in person, I would be satisfied with a simple eyebrow twitch or head nod telling me I was right.

by Ewdtrey on Nov 29, 2011 2:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

like when we beat Baltimore, all I could think about was how badly Gabbert played in that game. I was told to shut up and enjoy the win. Truth is, the win was because of the defense. We can’t hold teams to 3 or 6 points every game.

The first couple of weeks Gabbert played, I told everyone on here that Gabbert was going to be good. Then it seems he regressed in some areas. When he sees his first read covered, he took off and ran with it. Every.single.time. Made me want to scratch my eyes out. Now, he’s better with that and he finds his check downs more often. That’s one thing he’s been better at since the by week. But he’s still shaky in the pocket. He gets rattled and wants escape. But he’s even indecisive when he takes off and runs.

Gabbert’s biggest hurdle is being comfortable in the pocket and not letting it affect his fundamentals. If he were more comfortable, his technique would be better which would make his accuracy much better. It’s all interrelated.

by Blair72 on Nov 30, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

What I hate

is when Blaine sees pressure, he ducks his head, and tries to run, and still gets sacked. Guy needs to stay there and try throwing the ball, instead of taking the sack anyway.

"thanks for hating"
"Give it up now before its too late!…. CJ will be shut down? Nevermind, its already too late." AZ TiTan10

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by rhettchrystal on Nov 28, 2011 5:41 PM EST reply actions  

Looks to me like the Jags goofed big time on this pick.

I’ve seen him play against the Texans twice now and been unimpressed, to say the least. Your pre-draft report was spot on.

The Texans’ 5th-round rookie, T. J. Yates, looked a lot more like an NFL quarterback than Gabbert did on Sunday., showing the kind of poise missing from Gabbert’s game.

This is going to be an immediate problem for the Jaguars’ new coaching staff next year. But Gabbert won’t be “their guy”—they won’t be the ones who drafted him. I bet they’ll have him on a very short string. Look for him to be off the team in 2013.

"Gut Feeling"
Gastrointerologists confirm the human gut contains no rational thoughts.
What it IS full of is fairly well known.

by FreedomRide on Nov 28, 2011 9:42 PM EST reply actions  

As many bad things

I’ve had to say about Gabbert. I do expect him to be the QB of the future, as long as he learns to step into his throws and learns the little nuiances to keep the chains moving. He knows how to throw a nice intermediate pass that takes lots polish reading defenses, and he definitely has the arm. And he doesn’t make a lot of dumb mistakes that result in INT’s.

by Ewdtrey on Nov 28, 2011 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The good on Gabbert

Can read a defense very well for a rookie, knows the playbook, has the pure arm strength to succeed, good mobility.
He shouldn’t have been the Jaguars’ starter this year, and likely only got the job because Garrard crapped the bed. Oh well, it happens.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Nov 29, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

That unfortunately is the problem with

the entire season. Garrard crapping the bed. The front office told us immediately after the draft that Gabbert needed to sit for a year and develop… Some didn’t want to listen but that was the plan all along.

When Garrard stunk it up bad enough to be worthless, and McCown followed that up with a piss poor performance their hand was forced. Hopefully, we get some good QB friendly people in here next year.

by pksiv on Nov 29, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Remember when..

A great Rookie QB would save us from Garrard..

They got thier wish.. a

" I'm not just a Fan.. I'm a Season Ticket Holder"

by Charles Goin on Nov 29, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you sir

This guy looks sooo bad I honestly think I could play better then him I honestly don’t know what the hell the jags saw in this guy it’s very sad watching him play knowing that 95% of the fans that we still have think this guy is the future to this team like for real take a step back and look at the big picture if Matt Ryan can come in and play very well as a rookie and still not make it to the big game or far in the playoffs after a couple years how in the world do people really think that Blane is going to get us there anyone that trys to tell me he is a good qb Knows nothing about winning football games this is not collage a good d won’t get us there it’s all about the qb in the nfl and we have the worst one out of all 32 teams it’s not just the statsits the eye ball test too this will be a very long couple years watching this guy can’t wait till he is gone and I wright an I told you so article that you can all hate.

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Nov 30, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

there is just so much wrong with this comment

. <—- a period. can you use it some time?

Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."

by unhipcat on Dec 1, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

" SUNSHINE "

Blaine " Sunshine " Gabbert looks nothing like any sunshine ……. I am not riding this guy off completely but he has looked pretty terrible lately …… With a healthy Garrard , we wudnt have gone 3-8 so far , that’s for sure and I wud bet my Ham sandwich on it !!! Lets trade up from the #3rd pick to the 1rst and pick up Andrew " Call me Marino " Luck baby ……. then we add Dwayne Bowe and Harry Douglas in free agency and all of a sudden we go from being " The Joke " of the league on offense to a dominant force just like that …… JAG NATION TIME IN 2012 …….. that’s the BOTTOM LINE son !!!

L F J

by Daddycrapper on Nov 29, 2011 12:33 AM EST reply actions  

Actually

he’s exactly like Sunshine. He can hit a receiver in stride passed the CB and short/outside of the safety, but he can’t hit a simple screen to MJD.

by Ewdtrey on Nov 29, 2011 2:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Gabbert was

Suppost to be this years Andrew luck remember when he was supost to go number one over all what a joke!!!! This is a disaster we have put our selves in this guy will get us no where

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Nov 30, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

There wasn't an Andrew Luck in the 2011 draft, that was the problem.

There was no traditional, strong-armed passers who had been effective at the college level and ran a pro-style offense that would translate well to the NFL level.
Instead there was a cluster of QBs: Newton, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker, who all had question marks. Newton only had one year and was as much a runner as a passer, Ponder had a bad senior season because of injury, Gabbert’s numbers never showed him to be an explosive, accurate passer, and Locker struggled with accuracy.
That’s why I was surprised people went up so high for the QBs this year, including the Jaguars.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Nov 30, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

That's true but ponder is the real deal

I was so mad we did not get him he is head and shoulders above everyone els right now at being a good NFL qb wish we had him. Then maybe we could hit the first ever back shoulder fade in jags history haha.

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Nov 30, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I wonder if he might have been there at 16 if we didn't jump up for Gabbert...

Think about it: we traded up to 10 to get Gabbert. If we hadn’t,, the teams between 10 and 16 were Dallas, Houston, Minnesota, Detroit, St. Louis, and Miami.

The Vikings picked Ponder at 12, but let’s assume for the sake of argument that they would have gone after Gabbert instead. Then the one thing between the Jags and Ponder would be Miami. The thing is, Miami had their mind set on Pouncey, so it’s not crazy to think that Ponder (or Gabbert as the case may be) might have fallen to us at 16.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Nov 30, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Can't think that way.

Had one started falling that far, someone else might have traded up to get him.

by Ewdtrey on Nov 30, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

With the way this team drafts

We would have picked rackly in the first round with gene drafing he loves the no school kids which I don’t mind if it worked!!! Production is not happening cox is there but shirts bust karma bust and on and on I will admit he can find undrafted rookies with the best of them but other then that I’m not a fan.

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Nov 30, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

here's two

at :12 and :55

http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-packers/09000d5d8025e5fd (Big thanks to NFL.com for archiving this stuff)

Not hatin, I’ll just take any excuse for little glimpse at the good old days (the tail end of them anyway) and hopefully there are many more of these grabs to come.

P.S. Would you rather have Leftwitch back? He had a better rookie outing than BG has had so far I do believe, minus the TD/INT ratio.

http://www.nfl.com/player/byronleftwich/2505673/careerstats

Go jags

by moves_like_jaguars on Dec 1, 2011 6:04 AM EST up reply actions  

I would rather this team learn how to pick good qb's

And good find on the fades. Just think of all the qb’s we missed during DG stay here or even last year when we could have had ponder or even Dalton it’s just pathetic that we Sind gene when he has done nothing but find underfed payers.

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Dec 1, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Good writeup

What concerns me about Blaine is that his accuracy problems all seem to be a result of poor fundamentals, and I don’t think those are easily learned. Your talking about actions that most players in all sports have developed over many years, from Pee-Wee all the way through Varsity and college. I don’t believe we will see him fix these things over a single off-season as much as everyone would love to see it. Not as concerning to me is that he appears to play rushed or scared at times, I would put that more on our line who have been inconsistent all year. Its still something to watch for though.

What I LOVE about Gabbert though is his head for the game, he literally does not make bad decisions throwing the ball. Even throws that result in tips or interceptions are entirely the fault of his accuracy, he knows who is open and when they will be open. Thats a special skill that only the better guys in the league have and he has it already, he must improve his fundamentals but if he can then he will be a top-tier guy IMO.

by jstnblke41 on Nov 29, 2011 4:14 AM EST reply actions  

Give the kid a break...

Bradshaw – First year QB rating : 30.4
Elway – First Year QB Rating : 54.9
E. Manning – First Year QB Rating : 55.4
Aikmen – First year QB rating : 55.7
Sanchez – First Year QB Rating : 63.0
P. Manning – First Year QB Rating : 71.2

Gabbert : 63.6

Doesn’t look so bad now… Lets also consider he has a WR corps that sucks, an OL that is decimated, and wasn’t all that great at full health. Also had no OTAs, etc..

If he looks skiddish, and doesnt improve over the next two years, then we shoudl worry. Right now lets not call him a bust, lets get a team around him.. something we didnt do for Garrard but for one season really. Something this team hasn’t done in a while and for that I blame coaching.

Del Rio sucks, Koetter sucks, and most our position coaches suck. We need to give Mel Tucker the reins and replace the entire Offensive coaching staff. There are other teams that are bad out there, with even less talent on the Offensive side of the ball, yet they are rated higher than we are. You don’t get to the #32 ranking by just having bad luck and bad players, it also requires a complete failure of the coaching staff as well.

So give the kid a break..

" I'm not just a Fan.. I'm a Season Ticket Holder"

by Charles Goin on Nov 29, 2011 7:53 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Oh and also add to that:

We have played these defenses in this order starting with Cincinnati:

#5, #2, #3, #1, #28 (Indy), #6, #1

His ratings those games:
91.5, 70.8, 59, 26.7 (v Houston #1 Defense), 77.1 (Indy), 68.1, 44.6 (v Houston #1 Defense)

Forgive me if I am wrong, but he looked good playing Indy. He was also not sacked and rushed then. Which goes back to the O Line not being abused, and the WRs getting a little more open.

Playing those defenses would be tough on any team, especially one with a crappy O Line and WR Corps.

" I'm not just a Fan.. I'm a Season Ticket Holder"

by Charles Goin on Nov 29, 2011 8:02 AM EST up reply actions  

He has a team around him

Is this a joke? Our d has put us in a position to win a lot more times then not I have seen this guy completely blow up game planes with his poor play he can’t even throw a fade!!!!a high school qb can do that And don’t get me started on hitting screens it’s so sad he cant play it’s that simple please don’t compare him to thoughs qb’s that’s disrespect full to them.

zachary cleary

by jagsfan4life on Nov 30, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Decimated OL?

I don’t consider one injured starter “decimated.” In fact, injuries haven’t been the big issue on offense this season…it’s talent/production.

by acedarney on Dec 6, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Rashad Jennings would make this team much better

because we would always have a legit threat in the backfield even when MJD was out. Injuries have hurt the offense.

by jstnblke41 on Dec 6, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

no not decimated

But we did lose a starter for the season, a backup as well, started a rookie lg for most of the season and played whimper at RT. thats pretty gnarly compared to what should be in monroe, rackley, meester, uche, and britton.

you only have so much talent in guys like haslam and whimper and will only get so much production for a rook like rackley a 3rd rd pick.

by Kyle Lipsey on Dec 8, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

you have a "d" but it ends there. it's not like he was in a perfect situation.

he should have stayed in school 1 more year and he should have been riding the pine this year. if he sucks next year, cut him. but at least get the kid some coaching stability and a good wr.

can't we just pave over kansas?

by mizzutgr on Nov 30, 2011 8:31 PM EST reply actions  

He has mot than that

he has a good run game and a decent OL too. But I agree with you. He needed a lot more seasoning.

by Ewdtrey on Dec 1, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Lewis is that good

If you don’t count the 4+ TD drops this year. I’m hoping he can right that sinking ship, starting Monday.

by moves_like_jaguars on Dec 1, 2011 6:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Blaine Gabbert

22 years old
Worst WRs in NFL history
Medicore at best offensive line
One of the Worst coaching staffs in the NFL
Unimaginative Offensive Coordinator

And most of you guys are ready to dump him.

Ridiculous.

by zoxitic on Dec 2, 2011 8:03 AM EST reply actions  

Hey it worked with the Panthers

Jimmy Clausen didn’t have a great team around him, but the Panthers weren’t impressed with any thing they saw from, and used their top pick on Newton. Now they KNOW they have their QB for the next 10 years or so. I would do the same with Gabbert.

Taylor Price will be the starter by the end of the season (Said before Training Camp)

by Chris Kole on Dec 10, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Jimmy Clausen has mediocre at best talent

Gabbert has incredible natural passing talent and a great head for the game. In short, Clausen sucks.

by jstnblke41 on Dec 11, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Gabbert

If he just can connect with with a WR/TE he would really start to perform well

by TheonlyJagsfaninSD on Dec 2, 2011 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Hand was not forced

Jack made a bad decision to go with Blaine after McCown thre 4 picks against a pretty good D @ the Jets.

He should have played Luke, even though he wasn’t great, to give the kid time.

He knew his job was in Jeopardy so he risked it all and threw out the kid hoping for some Tom Brady like magic.

I’m not saying keeping in Luke would have saved his job or the season, but it would have given Blaine a little more time to learn and watch and grow and it would have affored the FO time to put in some more pieces around him on the oline and at WR

by Kyle Lipsey on Dec 2, 2011 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

Once Garrard was cut

it was basically Gabbert time.

by Ewdtrey on Dec 3, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I trust gene’s player evaluations for veterans and undrafted free agents but his drafts leave alot to be desired. This is a pivotal draft for us and we cant afford him to muck it up. He has to pull through with this one.

by Catfanatic1979v1 on Dec 5, 2011 5:21 PM EST reply actions  

It's pretty easy to say whether or not Gene is good

Have his high draft picks done well? Has he put building blocks in place? I’m confident in saying yes.

by Ewdtrey on Dec 6, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

overall

I would say overall he has done well. But he has yet to wow anyone. He has yet to hit a homerun and the fanbase really could use a home run right now.

by Kyle Lipsey on Dec 8, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Garrard

Had Garrard had this D in 2007 we would have won the Superbowl.

If Garrard was healthy this year, we woulda won a few more games.

If Harris was our punter the whole season, we woulda won 2 more games.

When Gabby gets some weapons and a healthy oline, I believe he can improve greatly and we’ll be right in the thick of it next season.

by Kyle Lipsey on Dec 8, 2011 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

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