The Formula For Drafting Quarterbacks

This originally appeared on HogsHaven.com, thanks to Kevin Ewoldt for the hard work.

Kevin Ewoldt of HogsHaven.com wrote a story a few days ago that I thought was very relevant to the Jacksonville Jaguars situation. Like the Jaguars, the Redskins need to draft a quarterback at some point. There's always a back and forth on which quarterback to draft, which not to draft, and various arguments as to why or why not. Well, Ewoldt points to an article that appeared in Sports Illustrated last year called "The Rule of 26-27-60" by John Lopez.

Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

 Sounds pretty simple, right?

Ewoldt was kind enough to do a lot of the heavy lifting in his original article, so excuse me while I cut and paste real quick...

QBs that have passed this rule: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Stafford. 

QBs who did not pass this rule: Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Heath Shuler, Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith (1 game short), Jeff George, and Vince Young (horrible Wonderlic). Yes, these are all huge busts but were all VERY high (or projected) 1st rounders.

Exceptions: Brett Favre (22 Wonderlic), McNabb (14 Wonderlic), Matt Leinart - who at USC played over 30 games, 35 Wonderlic, and threw over 63% all three years. Aaron Rodgers averaged 63.8 completion percentage, 35 Wonderlic, and 26 games (1 game short). Ben Roethlisberger scored a 25 on the Wonderlic (1 point short) but easily had the number of games and high completion %. Josh Freeman met all the rules except completion % at KSU (59.1%) - so close.

Seems pretty straight forward, correct?

For the most part, the rule holds a lot of weight. There of course, are always exceptions to the rule. So, how does the 26-27-60 rule apply to the players coming out in the 2011 NFL Draft? We don't know exactly, as we don't have wonderlic scores yet, but we can look for the 27-60 part of the rule and get started.

Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2007 Washington Pac-10 FR QB 155 328 47.3 2062 6.3 5.1 14 15 105.0
2008 Washington Pac-10 SO QB 50 93 53.8 512 5.5 5.7 1 0 103.6
2009 Washington Pac-10 JR QB 230 395 58.2 2800 7.1 6.9 21 11 129.7
2010 Washington Pac-10 SR QB 184 332 55.4 2265 6.8 6.6 17 9 124.2
Career
619 1148 53.9 7639 6.7 6.2 53 35 119.0

 

Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Nevada

WAC

FR

QB

133

247

53.8

2175

8.8

9.8

19

3

150.8

2008

Nevada

WAC

SO

QB

208

383

54.3

2849

7.4

7.8

22

7

132.1

2009

Nevada

WAC

JR

QB

166

282

58.9

2052

7.3

7.7

20

6

139.1

2010

Nevada

WAC

SR

QB

233

359

64.9

3022

8.4

8.6

21

8

150.5

Career

 

740

1271

58.2

10098

7.9

8.4

82

24

142.5

 

Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs  - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year Team G Cmp Att Comp % Yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Yds
2007 Iowa  2 0 4 0.0 0 0.0 0 1 0 0
2008 Iowa  13 150 254 59.1 1956 7.7 14 9 22 138
2009 Iowa  11 171 304 56.3 2417 8.0 17 15 23 175
2010 Iowa  13 221 345 64.1 3004 8.7 25 6 19 135
Career 39 542 907 59.8 7377 8.1 56 31 64 448

 

Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Florida State

ACC

FR

QB

8

18

44.4

105

5.8

1.9

1

2

89.6

2008

Florida State

ACC

SO

QB

177

318

55.7

2006

6.3

5.3

14

13

115.0

2009

Florida State

ACC

JR

QB

227

330

68.8

2717

8.2

8.1

14

7

147.7

2010

Florida State

ACC

SR

QB

184

299

61.5

2044

6.8

7.0

20

8

135.7

Career


596

965

61.8

6872

7.1

6.7

49

30

132.1


Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. -  FAILED 27-60 (Games Played < 27)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Florida

SEC

FR

QB

5

10

50.0

40

4.0

4.0

0

0

83.6

2008

Florida

SEC

SO

QB

1

2

50.0

14

7.0

7.0

0

0

108.8

2010

Auburn

SEC

JR

QB

185

280

66.1

2854

10.2

11.2

30

7

182.0

Career

Overall

191

292

65.4

2908

10.0

10.9

30

7

178.2

Florida

6

12

50.0

54

4.5

4.5

0

0

87.8

Auburn

185

280

66.1

2854

10.2

11.2

30

7

182.0

 

Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs  - PASSED 27-60

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Alabama

SEC

FR

QB

8

9

88.9

73

8.1

10.3

1

0

193.7

2008

Alabama

SEC

SO

QB

8

11

72.7

123

11.2

8.9

1

1

178.5

2009

Alabama

SEC

JR

QB

198

325

60.9

2508

7.7

8.2

17

4

140.5

2010

Alabama

SEC

SR

QB

222

313

70.9

2987

9.5

10.1

20

5

169.0

Career


436

658

66.3

5691

8.6

9.2

39

10

155.4

 

Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - PASSED 27-60

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

TCU

MWC

FR

QB

222

371

59.8

2459

6.6

5.8

10

11

118.5

2008

TCU

MWC

SO

QB

182

307

59.3

2242

7.3

7.3

11

5

129.2

2009

TCU

MWC

JR

QB

199

323

61.6

2756

8.5

8.8

23

8

151.8

2010

TCU

MWC

SR

QB

209

316

66.1

2857

9.0

9.9

27

6

166.5

Career


812

1317

61.7

10314

7.8

7.9

71

30

140.7

 

Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games)  - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2007

Michigan

Big Ten

FR

QB

61

141

43.3

892

6.3

5.7

7

5

105.7

2009

Arkansas

SEC

SO

QB

225

403

55.8

3624

9.0

9.7

30

7

152.5

2010

Arkansas

SEC

JR

QB

266

411

64.7

3869

9.4

9.7

32

12

163.6

Career

Overall

552

955

57.8

8385

8.8

9.1

69

24

150.4

Michigan

61

141

43.3

892

6.3

5.7

7

5

105.7

Arkansas

491

814

60.3

7493

9.2

9.7

62

19

158.1

 

Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED 27-60

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yds

Y/A

AY/A

TD

Int

Rate

2008

Missouri

Big 12

FR

QB

5

13

38.5

43

3.3

3.3

0

0

66.2

2009

Missouri

Big 12

SO

QB

262

445

58.9

3593

8.1

8.2

24

9

140.5

2010

Missouri

Big 12

JR

QB

301

475

63.4

3186

6.7

6.5

16

9

127.0

Career


568

933

60.9

6822

7.3

7.3

40

18

132.6

 

As a commentor pointed out, apparently John Lopez lifted this idea from Gil Brandt who lifted the idea from Football Outsiders?

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