The Formula For Drafting Quarterbacks

by Alfie Crow on Feb 2, 2011 8:02 AM EST in 2011 NFL Draft

This originally appeared on HogsHaven.com, thanks to Kevin Ewoldt for the hard work.

Kevin Ewoldt of HogsHaven.com wrote a story a few days ago that I thought was very relevant to the Jacksonville Jaguars situation. Like the Jaguars, the Redskins need to draft a quarterback at some point. There's always a back and forth on which quarterback to draft, which not to draft, and various arguments as to why or why not. Well, Ewoldt points to an article that appeared in Sports Illustrated last year called "The Rule of 26-27-60" by John Lopez.

Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

Sounds pretty simple, right?

Ewoldt was kind enough to do a lot of the heavy lifting in his original article, so excuse me while I cut and paste real quick...

QBs that have passed this rule: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Stafford.

QBs who did not pass this rule: Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Heath Shuler, Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith (1 game short), Jeff George, and Vince Young (horrible Wonderlic). Yes, these are all huge busts but were all VERY high (or projected) 1st rounders.

Exceptions: Brett Favre (22 Wonderlic), McNabb (14 Wonderlic), Matt Leinart - who at USC played over 30 games, 35 Wonderlic, and threw over 63% all three years. Aaron Rodgers averaged 63.8 completion percentage, 35 Wonderlic, and 26 games (1 game short). Ben Roethlisberger scored a 25 on the Wonderlic (1 point short) but easily had the number of games and high completion %. Josh Freeman met all the rules except completion % at KSU (59.1%) - so close.

Seems pretty straight forward, correct?

For the most part, the rule holds a lot of weight. There of course, are always exceptions to the rule. So, how does the 26-27-60 rule apply to the players coming out in the 2011 NFL Draft? We don't know exactly, as we don't have wonderlic scores yet, but we can look for the 27-60 part of the rule and get started.

Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Washington	Pac-10	FR	QB	155	328	47.3	2062	6.3	5.1	14	15	105.0
2008	Washington	Pac-10	SO	QB	50	93	53.8	512	5.5	5.7	1	0	103.6
2009	Washington	Pac-10	JR	QB	230	395	58.2	2800	7.1	6.9	21	11	129.7
2010	Washington	Pac-10	SR	QB	184	332	55.4	2265	6.8	6.6	17	9	124.2
Career					619	1148	53.9	7639	6.7	6.2	53	35	119.0

Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Nevada	WAC	FR	QB	133	247	53.8	2175	8.8	9.8	19	3	150.8
2008	Nevada	WAC	SO	QB	208	383	54.3	2849	7.4	7.8	22	7	132.1
2009	Nevada	WAC	JR	QB	166	282	58.9	2052	7.3	7.7	20	6	139.1
2010	Nevada	WAC	SR	QB	233	359	64.9	3022	8.4	8.6	21	8	150.5
Career					740	1271	58.2	10098	7.9	8.4	82	24	142.5

Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year	Team	G	Cmp	Att	Comp %	Yds	Yd/A	TDs	Int	Sacked	Yds
2007	Iowa	2	0	4	0.0	0	0.0	0	1	0	0
2008	Iowa	13	150	254	59.1	1956	7.7	14	9	22	138
2009	Iowa	11	171	304	56.3	2417	8.0	17	15	23	175
2010	Iowa	13	221	345	64.1	3004	8.7	25	6	19	135
Career		39	542	907	59.8	7377	8.1	56	31	64	448

Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Florida State	ACC	FR	QB	8	18	44.4	105	5.8	1.9	1	2	89.6
2008	Florida State	ACC	SO	QB	177	318	55.7	2006	6.3	5.3	14	13	115.0
2009	Florida State	ACC	JR	QB	227	330	68.8	2717	8.2	8.1	14	7	147.7
2010	Florida State	ACC	SR	QB	184	299	61.5	2044	6.8	7.0	20	8	135.7
Career					596	965	61.8	6872	7.1	6.7	49	30	132.1

Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. - FAILED 27-60 (Games Played < 27)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Florida	SEC	FR	QB	5	10	50.0	40	4.0	4.0	0	0	83.6
2008	Florida	SEC	SO	QB	1	2	50.0	14	7.0	7.0	0	0	108.8
2010	Auburn	SEC	JR	QB	185	280	66.1	2854	10.2	11.2	30	7	182.0
Career	Overall				191	292	65.4	2908	10.0	10.9	30	7	178.2
	Florida				6	12	50.0	54	4.5	4.5	0	0	87.8
	Auburn				185	280	66.1	2854	10.2	11.2	30	7	182.0

Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs - PASSED 27-60

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	8	9	88.9	73	8.1	10.3	1	0	193.7
2008	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	8	11	72.7	123	11.2	8.9	1	1	178.5
2009	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	198	325	60.9	2508	7.7	8.2	17	4	140.5
2010	Alabama	SEC	SR	QB	222	313	70.9	2987	9.5	10.1	20	5	169.0
Career					436	658	66.3	5691	8.6	9.2	39	10	155.4

Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - PASSED 27-60

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	TCU	MWC	FR	QB	222	371	59.8	2459	6.6	5.8	10	11	118.5
2008	TCU	MWC	SO	QB	182	307	59.3	2242	7.3	7.3	11	5	129.2
2009	TCU	MWC	JR	QB	199	323	61.6	2756	8.5	8.8	23	8	151.8
2010	TCU	MWC	SR	QB	209	316	66.1	2857	9.0	9.9	27	6	166.5
Career					812	1317	61.7	10314	7.8	7.9	71	30	140.7

Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games) - FAILED 27-60 (Completion < 60%)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Michigan	Big Ten	FR	QB	61	141	43.3	892	6.3	5.7	7	5	105.7
2009	Arkansas	SEC	SO	QB	225	403	55.8	3624	9.0	9.7	30	7	152.5
2010	Arkansas	SEC	JR	QB	266	411	64.7	3869	9.4	9.7	32	12	163.6
Career	Overall				552	955	57.8	8385	8.8	9.1	69	24	150.4
	Michigan				61	141	43.3	892	6.3	5.7	7	5	105.7
	Arkansas				491	814	60.3	7493	9.2	9.7	62	19	158.1

Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED 27-60

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2008	Missouri	Big 12	FR	QB	5	13	38.5	43	3.3	3.3	0	0	66.2
2009	Missouri	Big 12	SO	QB	262	445	58.9	3593	8.1	8.2	24	9	140.5
2010	Missouri	Big 12	JR	QB	301	475	63.4	3186	6.7	6.5	16	9	127.0
Career					568	933	60.9	6822	7.3	7.3	40	18	132.6

As a commentor pointed out, apparently John Lopez lifted this idea from Gil Brandt who lifted the idea from Football Outsiders?

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Comments

Fro?

Do you mean for?

by jagsfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 8:08 AM EST reply actions

No… they all need fro’s too… Yeah..

edits

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by Alfie Crow on Feb 2, 2011 8:11 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

haha

by jagsfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 8:50 AM EST up reply actions

awesome

(Panthera onca)

by viator on Feb 3, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions

I am fairly certain this is actually a Football Outsiders metric and Lopez got a bunch of flack from them for ripping it off.

by hjdevnull on Feb 2, 2011 8:19 AM EST reply actions

Yep.

Follow me on Twitter

by Alfie Crow on Feb 2, 2011 8:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Ripping off or borrowing?

by Fivus Viener on Feb 2, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

Brandt had to issue an apology, if I recall.

Follow me on Twitter

by Alfie Crow on Feb 2, 2011 11:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don't think Brandt lifted the concept from Football Outsiders per se

Maybe THIS iteration of it, but the Cowboys, Rams and Niners I believe had a group that used computerized analysis of draft prospects called Troika in the early 60s and working closely with IBM computer scientists based on specific criteria that the different teams looked for in building their organizations. Gil Brandt worked for Tex Schramm who was as close to a behind the scenes football genius as there ever was.

Anyhow, Brandt probably had the troika concept in mind but did a sloppy job of bastardizing someone elses work.

Love cybermetrics and how they play in football. You’d think someone would have cornered the NFL moneyball market by now.

by Joe Fisher on Feb 2, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Good to see stats backing up what many have said

A lot of people have been pumping Dalton and Ponder recently and it looks like they might have a good future. Lets just hope they are not the exceptions to this pattern.

"I’m going to punish him. If he hits me, fine, but if I catch him, believe me, I’m going to get the better shot." - Fred Taylor

by kterr on Feb 2, 2011 8:37 AM EST reply actions

Ponder or Dalton

by rhettchrystal on Feb 2, 2011 9:15 AM EST reply actions

+1

by FgallosJAGS on Feb 2, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

Locker scares me a bit. Sometimes I see him play and I see Troy Aikman but sometimes I see Troy Smith. Here is a good article from a Seattle paper comparing Locker to Kyle Boller. Some pretty striking similiarities.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/undraftedfreeagent/archives/223025.asp

by Fivus Viener on Feb 2, 2011 9:30 AM EST reply actions

Good stuff

Although not an exact science it sure does give you another perspective for evaluating QBs. Good read.

by jstnblke41 on Feb 2, 2011 9:44 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Great page alfie, i love this, and actually think its true..completion % is huge..

well, what can i say, im in love with ponder and dalton..and i didnt mind mcelroy either

by FgallosJAGS on Feb 2, 2011 10:24 AM EST reply actions

the more I see it

the more I am liking Ponder. And I’m a Bama fan! McElroy has a future as a Ryan Fitzpatrick type cerebral backup who is serviceable when needed. I like to think there is still a place for those type guys like Fitzpatrick, McGee from Dallas and Smith from Tennessee.

by Joe Fisher on Feb 2, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions