Will the Jaguars move around in the draft?

by Alfie Crow on Mar 30, 2011 10:00 AM EDT in Jacksonville Jaguars Rumors

Recently in a sit down video interview on Jaguars.com, Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Gene Smith indicated they have some "maneuverability" in the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. What he meant exactly by this isn't really known, as the Jaguars haven't necessarily been movers and shakers in the past two drafts under Gene Smith. It could mean the Jaguars are looking to trade down, similar to one of the scenarios I wrote about previously. Or does it mean they are looking to trade up?

As far as Gene Smith trading down in the draft, I can only recall him doing it one time and it was so insignificant I didn't even realize it had occured. In the 2010 NFL Draft, he traded a 5th round pick to the New Orleans Saints for a 2011 4th round pick. In the 2009 NFL Draft, Gene Smith send a 2010 2nd round pick to move back up into the 3rd round to draft cornerback Derek Cox. While it's often attributed to Gene Smith he'd prefer to move down in the draft, he declined to do so in the 2010 NFL Draft, according to the San Francisco 49ers. The Jaguars were offered a 5th round pick to slide to the 13th pick, but declined and went ahead and drafted defensive tackle Tyson Alualu.

This year, many Jaguars fans want the Jaguars to select a defensive end from the deep crop. There's also a large contingent of Jaguars fans who want the Jaguars to go ahead and select their quarterback of the future in the first round. I've been an advocate of taking your quarterback at 16 if you've done your work on him and believe he's the guy, go ahead and take him.

However, I've maintained for a while that I think the Jacksonville Jaguars play in the 2011 NFL Draft will be to take the best available player at 16, likely a defensive end or an offensive lineman, and then move back up into the first round to take their quarterback. In maneuvering back up, the Jaguars would either have to leap in front of the Seattle Seahawks or in front of the Buffalo Bills in the second round, if they pass on a quarterback at 3.

You could end up with say, Aldon Smith and Christian Ponder. Or maybe Cameron Jordan and Colin Kaepernick. Maybe even Ryan Kerrigan and Andy Dalton, for the "Gene Smith guy" crowd, at the expense of what is likely a mid-first round pick in 2012.

If the former is the scenario, should the Jaguars dangle their 2012 first round pick as the offer, and keep their second round pick? Or should the Jaguars give up picks in the current draft to get their guy?

Poll

Would you be ok with the Jaguars drafting BAP at 16, then using their 2012 first round pick to move back up in the first round for their QB?

Yes

60 votes

No, stay pat and just draft as they fall.

96 votes

No, use picks in the current draft as trade ammo.

78 votes

234 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 45 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

i would be down for trading down and picking ponder..

the BILLS have announced that they will take Cam Newton if he is there..

by FgallosJAGS on Mar 30, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

they said the same thing about Tebow last year as well.

No one is going to give up their draft strategy a month out.

by Joe Fisher on Mar 30, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

lol, i guarantee they take him..

by FgallosJAGS on Mar 30, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

In the first or second?

He’ll probably be long gone before their second pick.

by packerman on Mar 30, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

newton wil be taken by bills first pick..guaranteed..

by FgallosJAGS on Mar 30, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it gets very interesting...

when you use picks for the next draft because you, nor your trading partner, know what they are! Have a great year and your 2012 1st round pick is not as valuable as it would be if you have a bad year. I think you would have to really be sold on a guy to give up your next year’s first round pick in an effort to get him. Interesting stuff!

by GAJAGFAN on Mar 30, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

I think it depends on how Gene feels about the talent in the 2012 draft

But then again, if they have a high first round grade on a guy like ponder, he would be willing to trade that 2012 first for him IMO. Remember his rationale for trading for Cox? “We had a 2nd round grade on him, so we just get him a year earlier is all”.

by ScottyD4Life on Mar 30, 2011 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't give up next year's 1st rounder

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Mar 30, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

Anyone who would...

is insane.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Why?

What if you have devastating injuries all over the place and go 2-14 or something awful like that? Then you’ve just traded away the a pick in the top 3 of the draft for a middle of the first round talent.

by packerman on Mar 30, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

And what if you win the Super Bowl ?

Then you would’ve traded away next years 32nd pick for one this year that is probably higher ? What if scenarios are all over the place.

DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's, or LB's ability to cover a TE.

by pksiv on Mar 30, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but...

then you won’t pick until 64th overall. That’s not good for anybody either.

by packerman on Mar 30, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

i agree

wonder what the success rate of this is?

by Slawsc on Mar 30, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The teams that do this are picking near the top now.

…and always are. They’re the ones that give NE all the leverage. Look at the bonehead Carolina giving away the 33rd.

What could of happened; did.

by Mullayo on Mar 30, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

The Colts aren’t picking near the top. They’ve done it and even missed on the pick they took doing it.

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by Alfie Crow on Mar 30, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

not really

if one thinks of basic ideas such as time value of $ a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar tomorrow. A first round pick now is potentially more valuable than a first rounder next year

by Jagsrok9008 on Mar 30, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

If you get your franchise quarterback, it’s still not worth it?

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by Alfie Crow on Mar 30, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

by CheapSeat on Mar 30, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

there is no franchise qb that we know of right.

why move up to take a chance on a guy whose value is inflated because of a shortage of players at his position. I am sure most teams do not have 1st or 2nd round grades on most of these qb’s, I heard alot of talk on nfl radio from scouts that this is a weak qb class and a majority of qb’s have valid questions about them at the next level. What i am saying is don’t waste a 1st round pick on a qb that is not worth it? to satisfy the mob?

by Lay Low Llama on Mar 30, 2011 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Ponder IS worth it, anyone who has watched him would see this, and as for the QB position being “weak” this year, that is not true at all. It is as strong as it has gotten in a long time.

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I’ve watched Ponder many of times, and I didn’t come away with that high of an opinion on him…

@foryourhandicap

by uclatroy on Mar 30, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

We have no idea what grades teams have on players. Alualu apparently had a first round grade from more than one team, but not so many people knew that before the draft. Also, there’s no shortage of QBs in this draft. Just because there may not be several who look amazing doesn’t mean there’s not several potential starters.

by Mahlalie on Mar 30, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Aldon Smith and Christian Ponder? SIGN ME UP! lol, seriously, if that was my option, YESSSS PLEASE. I would give up next years 1st round in a hurry, I would not even think about it, just do it. We would get one of the better DEs in the draft and our franchise QB.

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

Sure...

because there’s no way either of those players will be a bust, right? Everyone who gets picked in first round is a star…so we don’t need a first rounder next year.

Oh, boy…

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Its mind boggling that 20 people would trade away next years first round pick.

To me, that is absolutely the stupidest thing a football team could ever do. Then what? Next year these same people will be wailing and gnashing their teeth when we have no first rounder, and will be saying to do something outlandish to acquire one.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

No, I would be happy because we would have our RDE and our franchise QB.

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

How did trading a lot of picks to get a DE work when we got Harvey?

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Different GM

though there are examples of failures in this type of deal.

by Brian Levenson on Mar 30, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, do we have no other holes except at DE and QB?

We have a terrible secondary, need LBs, our OL is getting old…QB is probably one of the least pressing needs at this moment.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree....

I think making wild trades like using next years first round pick is a knee jerk looking for a quick fix…..which will lead to failure more times than not. I do not see GM Gene making that move….ever!

by GAJAGFAN on Mar 30, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

…33 year old average QB is our starter right now, franchise QB is the most important position in football, and that is not a pressing need? Also, what does trading away next years pick have to do with filling holes this year? We would have 1,1,2,3,4,4,5,6 this year and potentially 2,3,4,5,6,7 next year, in which if we really want we could trade around too. Not having a 1st round pick is not the end of the world.

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I said its our LEAST pressing need.

We need to address QB, for sure – but we didn’t miss the playoffs this year because of QB. We missed the playoffs because (to quote Bart Scott) on defense we couldn’t stop a nosebleed. We made every QB look like Dan Fouts in his prime – gunning the ball all over the field with impunity. I say secondary and pass rush are our two MOST pressing needs.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

when are you going to get the franchise QB then?

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Not sure yet...

I haven’t seen if we get him in this draft.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

You realize that Alfie is being hypothetical with those 2 picks right?

Jaguars could end up taking 2 guys besides any of the ones he mentioned…

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

No kidding, either way getting a great DE and a QB would be ideal.

by Demetrius82 on Mar 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree...

we can do that by drafting intelligently in this draft, and not sacrificing next year’s first rounder.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I think trading down is a better idea than trading up.

Go from 16 down to say 26 for a 3rd and 4th, then deal a 2nd and a 3rd for the Pats pick 28.

by Brian Levenson on Mar 30, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

I'm all for trading down.

Acquiring more picks is the way to go.

by JPQ! on Mar 30, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I would say...

It all depends on who is still sitting on the board at 16. If there is someone available that another team likes (say an OT or something) and Jordon, Watt, Kerrigan, and Clayborn are all still there, then you trade down a few picks and grab an extra late round pick or two. You pick your guy from those 4 in our new spot in the first and then you use those newly acquired picks to trade up and grab your QB in the early 2nd, whomever it may be. All in all, you still end up with 7 picks in the draft and you get both your QB and the DE for the future.

by flint on Mar 30, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

Can't say what's best either way

but as long as Gene remains committed to BAP, he won’t pick Ponder or a defensive end at 16 if he doesn’t think he’s worth it. If that’s the case, I’d welcome a trade up or down.

by Vicbow on Mar 30, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Trading down is good= Belichick, Newsome

Trading up is bad = Al Davis, Hurney, Shack Harris

What could of happened; did.

by Mullayo on Mar 30, 2011 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

trading next years 1st rounder...

to trade back into the first round to get a qb would be idiotic. Just take the qb at 16 or trade down a bit and take him.

@foryourhandicap

by uclatroy on Mar 30, 2011 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

I can see them trading eithor way.

I see a play up if Prince goes past the Texans. I can see a trade back if a bunch of DE on the boards. I also could see Gene trading later in the draft. But the fact remains will he have someone to trade with. Or get no offers of value due to other gm’s realizing how smart Gene is.

by ctjags on Apr 23, 2011 3:12 PM EDT reply actions