My Random Draft Thoughts and Misunderstandings
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
in Jacksonville Jaguars Rumors
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PrintI usually ramble in the mornings on twitter while the thoughts are fresh in my brain, so I thought I'd throw my ramblings down here as well. I mean, there's nothing else going on because of the lockout, right? As most of you can gather, I like to ellicit response so I ask questions and poke holes. Well, in the midst of draft discussions and talking to tons of Jaguars fans, I just have some random thoughts and misunderstands on some thoughts.
Follow my train of thought after the jump.
We all know I maintain that if you want to get a franchise quarterback, your best bet is in the first round of the draft. While the hit rate is still just 50/50, when you get to the second round over the past two decades it's 10/90 for hit/miss and continues the decline thereafter. I get the thought process behind grabbing your guy in round 2 if he's available, but I do have a question: If the quarterback you're targeting as a franchise QB can be had in round 2, how good is he really?
Know what I mean? You'd have to literally be "smartest kid in the room" to pull that one off.
Another thought process I can't seem to grasp is when some people say the Jaguars need to get a defensive end, because they need to win now. Well first of all, isn't that technically "needs" drafting?
On that same point, if you make the argument the Jaguars have to "win now" so they should draft a defensive end... do you then believe said rookie defensive end is going to come in and put them over the top to land a winning record or make the playoffs and push for the division? How often does that happen? Did Eugene Monroe and Tyson Alualu come in right away and be difference makers?
No, not really. While I think both will be good players, neither really made a huge impact their rookie year.. as expected. The only defensive ends I can think of off the top of my head who were picked in the middle of the first round who were instant impact makers were Brian Orakpo and Clay Matthews, but they're both 3-4 outside linebackers (Thanks to @loganselbert for pointing this out on twitter when I asked for guys).
Another thought I keep hitting with people is on someone like Andy Dalton. I personally am not very high on him, but that's me. He reminds me too much of Jeff Garcia and/or Colt McCoy, but I could be wrong. However, you see a lot of people think that he can be "the guy" and he should be the Jaguars pick at 49. Well, if you think he's "the guy", why don't you take him at 16?
He doesn't meet the value? How valuable is "the guy" at quarterback to you? Is a defensive end at 16 more valuable than the guy at QB?
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I think we must raise a question in this
whole QB draft thing. The Jaguars are searching for a “franchise QB” now or a QB for development? I mean in every draft you can have the chance to select a QB where ever you want. You can select even 2 QB in one draft (like the Panthers did last year). Right now the Jags have 2 QBs undrr contract. Yes they are both over 30. Yes I think David Garrard has less and less fuel in his tank (but he still can play, and there is a pretty good chance that if there will be a season ‘11, he will be the starter on opening day) so the Jaguars must be thinking about that factory when they draft. But I don’t want to rush for a QB on the 1st round, because they NEED to find a QB as quick as possible. We saw how NEED helped in this franchise in the past couple of years. Yeah I would like to see Ponder in teal, but if at 16th, there is a player whose stands higher on Gene’s draft board, and they like the guy, then pick him instead of Ponder or any other QB. And you can get a young QB still later for development in the latter rounds. And in the next draft you have once again have the chance to find your “franchise QB”.
All I can say is this I rather want to have to see the Jaguars front office going into this draft with the BAP philosophy into this draft, and they pick the highest ranked player on there board when they will pick firtst, then a mentality that “We need a QB right now!, and we will draft it in the 1st round no matter what”.
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 8:26 AM EDT reply actions
The chances of finding a “developmental” QB who amounts to at the worst a serviceable starter is under 15% in the last 20 years. Teams who have their guy on the roster can afford to do that.
The Jaguars need to find their franchise QB, not another bridge. The sooner the better. Adding a “developmental” guy with the hopes he winds up at the very least serviceable is more of a swing for the fence than one in the first round.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 8:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"The Jaguars need to find their franchise QB, not another bridge. The sooner the better"
I agree with this 100%, but I still stick with BAP, not BAQB policy.
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
How many times are we going to say “we can get our franchise QB next year”?
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 8:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Until we found one! (That was a softball)
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Let me know how you find one by not drafting one.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 9:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
There will be a draft when the Jags will draft a 1st round QB
Sooner or later. (hah)
But let me ask you theoretical question: There are 2 players on the board: Amukamara and Ponder at 16th. The Jags ghave AMukamara higher on the board. You still would’ve pick Ponder?
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
What’s more valuable? A cornerback or a possible franchise QB?
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 9:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Depends
Because the cornerback can be also a shutdown corner meanwhile the possible franchise QB could be just a guy who was overdrafted because of the position….
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
An the cornerback can also be the next Fernando Bryant.
By the argument youre making, no one should be drafted.
Again: If you believe the QB is a franchise QB, you are not “overdrafting”.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ah....
And if the Jags are find every QB some flaws that make them concern picking them at 16th meanwhile there are a (Non QB) player they are love llike they did last year with Alualu?
I’m all for drafting a QB this draft but you starting to become obsessed with the “nothing else but a QB draft” in the 1st round thing(which is I think a wrong perspective. You must be open to every possibilty.) And I know about “the 1st ronnd QB pick success rate is the biggest” stat.
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
In no way am I saying they shouldn’t draft anything but a QB at 16. I’m saying if there is a QB they think is a franchise QB he should be the pick at 16.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 10:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If there's a QB that Gene Smith believes is a Franchise QB
not a possible one but a can’t miss Franchise QB, he WILL be the highest rated player on their board at #16.
If he’s not, than we’re getting into the many degrees of what could be described as a Franchise QB.
DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's, or LB's ability to cover a TE.
Franchise QB trumps all other positions. If you think a guy like Ponder or Locker or whomever can be a franchise QB, you take him no matter who is available.
Jake Long is a Pro Bowl left tackle but you think the Dolphins wouldn’t rather have Matt Ryan right now? Look at every player taken ahead of Rivers, Roethlisberger, .Rodgers, Flacco, Sanchez and Freeman. Alot of regrets in there.
by Fivus Viener on Mar 31, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
No they didn’t. Green Bay found Mark Brunell. Green Bay could draft guys like Brunell and Hasslebeck because they had Favre and weren’t looking for a franchise QB.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Point was, he wasn't a first rounder, but he was more than serviceable.
Damn you Alfie for making me think things other than numbers on a Thursday!
And Brett Favre was found by....
Atlanta
By the way neither of those guys was a 1st round pick, both turned out pretty decentt players to say the least….
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
And they’re the RARE exceptions.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know
But that shows, it can happen.
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
You just proved Alfie's point
Alfie is saying you have to take a shot on a first round quarterback. We haven’t taken a shot in 7 or 8 years(whatever the hell it is) so we have missed on all first round QBs.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
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This is the year.
We’ve always felt that coming. And the idea of a “developmental” guy is that he has the arm, but needs some mental work, and needs to get in better shape overall. He takes time to sit and learn because he’s not yet a starting quality QB.
It worked out pretty well for New England with Brady, and GB with Rodgers, and the Eagles are gonna get a pretty penny for Kolb and so on and so forth.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Now that's what I exactly mean under
"developmental QB"
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
If "your guy" is there at 16
Why would you pass him up? Franchise QB’s are not something that you roll the dice on, and hope theyre still there in Rd 2. We need to draft the future THIS year so that he has 2 years to develop. Alfie has pointed out several times, that history supports the fact that Franchise QB’s are found in Rd 1. Plain and simple, right there in black and white. (Brady exception)…I wanted to wait until the 2nd for maybe Colin or Ponder, and snag a beast pass rusher in the 1st till Alfie asked me 1 question on twitter that I could not answer: How good of a QB is a guy that 31 other teams passed on, some teams twice?….Draft the Future, plug the other holes thru draft and FA. What is more valuable than a Franchise QB? Ask the Colts, Pats, Steelers, Packers, and Saints. What do those 5 teams have in common? Franchise QB’s and Super Bowls.
I CAN DO ALL THINGS THRU CHRIST, WHO STRENGTHENS ME!!!
by DadeCountyJag on Mar 31, 2011 9:31 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Secondary is probably the easiest hole to plug
Thru FA.
I CAN DO ALL THINGS THRU CHRIST, WHO STRENGTHENS ME!!!
by DadeCountyJag on Mar 31, 2011 9:33 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agree completely
The NFL is littered with quality DBs found in later rounds. The Colts have no early round guys in their secondary; the Titans got a pro bowler in Finnegan in the 7th. And this year there are countless good free agent DBs.
It’s tough to tell how the draft will play out, but I will make one prediction that I’ll stand by: There WILL be a run on QBs. There are far too many QB needy teams for any good prospects to slip to the later rounds. How many other teams told themselves last year “This is a week crop, but next year is our year”? We’re not the only team in that predicament.
At this point I’m not even sure Ponder lasts until 16, but if he does, we need to pounce.
Alfie, there are only about 5 elite QBs at any one time
The other 27 teams need starters. If you’re not so egotistical to think that you “know better” that someone is an elite QB, just pick one where it makes the most sense. A first rounder for Dalton doesn’t make sense, but a 2nd round pick for a starter at the most important position in the game, now that sounds like a deal.
27 teams need a starter?
And I thought my Kush was good.
I CAN DO ALL THINGS THRU CHRIST, WHO STRENGTHENS ME!!!
by DadeCountyJag on Mar 31, 2011 9:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
By which I mean , everyone can't have an elite QB
The teams that can’t snag an elite QB still need someone to play QB for them, ie a “starter” and not a “star.”
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Jags have two of those on their roster already.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 10:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, we have one.
And he’s 33. Trent Edwards is not a starter, that’s why he got dropped by the Bills. We took him because we needed a backup after all our injuries. McCown isn’t a very reliable option either. Garrard is a mid-level NFL starter, but honestly when you look at him vs a guy like Joe Webb, Jimmy Clausen, Derek Anderson etc. I’m very glad to have Garrard.
You don’t need elite players everywhere to win games, most of the time you just need players that don’t suck.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, he looks good comparing him to the dumpster barrel of the NFL starters.
We don’t know if McCown is a reliable starter or not, but I think he can guide the team to 7-9 and 8-8 just like Garrard can.
You need an elite QB to win in the NFL. That much is obvious.
For real, just ask Matt Cassel and his PLAYOFF Chiefs team
Or the Jets with Sanchez, or the Seahawks with a decrepit old Matt Hassleback, there’s no way any of those teams can win games or make it to the playoffs… Or upset people in the playoffs, they don’t have “elite” QBs.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
McCown is NOT
as good as Garrard. Period.
DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's, or LB's ability to cover a TE.
If you (the team) think Dalton is a franchise QB, why is he not worth a first round pick?
The Jaguars need to look for more than a “starter” at the position.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 9:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let's throw every game in 2011
and pick up Luck at #1 next year…It will hurt in 2011, but 2013 – 2023 will be pretty fun.
SOome people said the same about Locker a year ago...
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by Zoltan from Budapest on Mar 31, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's throw every game every year
And have the best team ever with all the first round picks. YES
Matt Millen tried that. Funny, it never worked.
There were Lions fans at the end of the 2010 season complaining that we had won our last four games. They said the wins were meaningless and cost us Patrick Peterson. My opinion of those “fans” is that they are losers.
Good teams win a lot of games and still end up drafting outstanding players. Personally, I am very happy where my Lions are headed. I think Gene Smith is moving the Jags in the right direction. He will continue to draft good value players and the Jags will continue to improve.
"I read one article, I said, 'This guy doesn't know what he's talking about,' " Mayhew said. "Then I read another one, and I thought, 'Wait a minute, they're all saying the same thing.' -Martin Mayhew 2011 regarding Draft Gurus.
by NorthLeft12 on Mar 31, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
What if Ponder lasts into the 2nd round and we took a DE at 16, would you believe Ponder would not be that great because of him being a 2nd rounder?
forget about the above post, I understand now.
by Demetrius82 on Mar 31, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
History would lean towards that thought.
I’m only saying Ponder because that’s who I like.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 10:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah I understand now check the post after this one
by Demetrius82 on Mar 31, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Alfie though (wait what?) if they think that someone is “their guy” who ever that may be, why not take him at 16? The QB is the MOST valuable position in the draft and if you grade him as a 2nd round guy then how good do you really think he is? If you think he is a franchise QB you will have him at the top of your board no?
I am betting that....
if you think a guy is your guy (at any position, but especially QB) then he is most likely also BAP on your board. An QB that would be perceived by an NFL GM and staff to be a future elite QB would be there BAP. If he is your BAP, then you will take him at your next pick if available. If he is not your BAP, then you might pass on him and take a chance at a later pick, and you are probably not convinced that he is a future elite QB (or CB or DE), but see potential that he could be great. Plain and simple, if the Jags believe that Ponder (or Dalton, or whoever) has what it takes to be elite, then they will get him at 16, and they will feel they got a great deal. If they don’t , they will pass, pick someone else, and try to catch him, or someone else later.
by GAJAGFAN on Mar 31, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
What we're overlooking is: What if they don't think he's an Elite QB?
If they think he’s elite, the choice is easy, if they think he’s good, the story is different.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
Agree.....
That’s what I wrote just above. We will know on draft day what the Jags really think of Dalton, Ponder, and all the other names in the draft. You may not agree with them, but their opinion will be known. I think we can all assume that had a pretty high opinion of Tyson last year, and it looks like a pretty good choice! That being said, how many of us said “Tyson Aluawho?” when Mr. Goodell read his name?
Then you don’t draft him. Simple as that.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So I think that's where fans are coming from.
We don’t all necessarily see Dalton or Ponder or Kaepernick as an elite QB, but if they could be “good” QBs, and they’re there in the 2nd round, we have some concerns about the future of the position. If they are BAP, then get the guy in the second round.
by Brian Levenson on Mar 31, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ever?
Not all seven rounds are filled with “elite” players. Several rounds are filled with “good” and “potentially good” players. You have to look at all players to rank them, and then pick the best of whats available at the time. If there are still elite players at your pick, you’ll take one. If it’s an elite QB and an elite LB…take the QB. If it’s an elite DE, CB, whatever and a potentially good QB, take the other guy and wait on the QB.
Is that what I said? Did I say never in any round?
Let’s not twist words around here. I am saying if they rate one of the QB’s as a franchise caliber quarterback, he should be their pick at 16.
“Then you don’t draft him. Simple as that.”
Just saying’. Simple as that.
by Conservative on Mar 31, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see the word ever in my statement. Do you? Was it invisible?
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It wasn't necessary.
The words you did use simply said it all.
Alfie, You have really nailed the crux of the issue.
If the quarterback you’re targeting as a franchise QB can be had in round 2, how good is he really?
There is a story on Mocking The Draft about Colin Kaepernick being a high potential bust.
LINK:http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/3/31/2081382/nfl-draft-bust-o-meter-7-colin-kaepernick#storyjump
I argued that calling the guy a bust because a team expected a second or third round QB to be a franchise QB is foolish. I think you should call it what it is, an idiot pick. You are gambling with a very low chance of success. I guess the good news is you are only losing a second or third round pick.
If Gene Smith believes that Ponder is the franchise QB for the Jags, he better take him at # 16, because the chance that he makes it to # 49 and is really that good is pretty slim.
"I read one article, I said, 'This guy doesn't know what he's talking about,' " Mayhew said. "Then I read another one, and I thought, 'Wait a minute, they're all saying the same thing.' -Martin Mayhew 2011 regarding Draft Gurus.
All possibilities of Ponder/Kap being
There at 48 are gone, thats my issue. My dream scenario would be Brooks Reed at 16, Kap at 48…not happening. Teams are starting to notiice Kap a whole lot these days.
I CAN DO ALL THINGS THRU CHRIST, WHO STRENGTHENS ME!!!
by DadeCountyJag on Mar 31, 2011 10:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
You may be right
You may be right that it takes time to develop just about any player and there are very few “Can’t Miss” draft picks, but there seems to be an assumption that a pass rush and an seriously upgraded secondary are critical to making a run in the same division as the Colts. And the word “pressure” seems appropriate given that the entire Jags coaching staff is in the last year of their contracts and obviously on the hotseat. Or maybe Gene Smith and the coaches are not operating on the same time schedule, and if so, that must make it more difficult to make draft decisions. In any case, if Gene Smith thinks any of this year’s quarterbacks are franchise guys he may pull the trigger at 16. I have a feeling he will not. Unfortunately, the quarterback class of 2012 isn’t so hot either, with not a lot beyond Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, Kellen Moore and perhaps Matt Barkley if he comes out.
by Hansen Alexander on Mar 31, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions
My gut tells me we wont be drafting a QB in the first.
I’m not even sure Gabbert is worth a first round pick let alone any of the others. I just don’t see it.
by KillJag on Mar 31, 2011 10:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
And for the record I wasn’t one of those wait till we get our franchise QB next year guys. Believe me, I think we need to get someone to replace Garrard ASAP but all the QB’s in this draft have question marks and I don’t think you should draft a future franchise QB in the first if he has question marks. But that’s just me. I’m not really as knowledgeable as a lot of you are on the finite details of what separates the talent of these guys.
by KillJag on Mar 31, 2011 11:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we shouldn't draft a QB in the first 2 rounds
if we draft a QB in any round, he’s not going to play right away, so that means he’s a developmental QB, which means we can grab him in the 3rd or later. We should try to improve our defense with our first two picks. With the first i’ll draft a pass rusher. with the second a LB or DB.
Can't stand the truth?
Why not? If he’s good, shouldn’t he challenge Garrard?
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 12:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Spot On
Every player on the team should be capable of at least challenging the starter. Otherwise, your roster is crap. While I don’t necessarily agree that we must draft a QB in the first round, I don’t see a reason to shy away from someone who could challenge Garrard as the starter.
Yea but
Last year our defense overall was very bad. I believe we need to address the defense with our first rounder. I could live with trading back into the late first round or spending a second round pick on a QB but we need some sort of defensive stud in the first. A guy like Aldon, or Kerrigan, or Jordan, or even Ayers would be ideal with that 16th pick.
Can't stand the truth?
And i'm not a Garrard lover
i think he’s a servicable QB for now. There are a couple of teams in the league that would love to have David over the QB’s they got on their roster. I do believe that we need to bring in a developmental QB but just not with the 16th overall pick.
Can't stand the truth?
Actually...
Out of all of the players that could be selected in the first round, I feel like CBs and safeties have the biggest impact in their first year. They don’t make a defense elite just by being there, but they can make a significant impact. Look at McCourty, Talib, Mike Jenkins in his first year, Earl Thomas, etc.
About Earl Thomas....
Seattle’s pass defence went from 30th to 27th in the NFL in yards given up. They actually gave up more yards per game in 2010 than 2009.
Their run defence got worse. From 15th to 21st.
I still like Earl Thomas as a player and would have loved to see him in a Jaguar jersey.
"I read one article, I said, 'This guy doesn't know what he's talking about,' " Mayhew said. "Then I read another one, and I thought, 'Wait a minute, they're all saying the same thing.' -Martin Mayhew 2011 regarding Draft Gurus.
Look at the rest of their defense though...
Lots of injuries, and maybe only 2-3 other players that you would want playing for your team. Thomas was a positive force on the defense. I’m not suggesting that he made the team elite, I’m just saying that players in the secondary can have good success their rookie seasons.
Didn’t say they couldn’t, but if the argument here is that DE/CB/LB is a more immediate need and that’s what they should target, aren’t you then implying they’d make an immediate impact?
Yes, they would make a more immediate impact than a QB.
But even if the qb were to start, there is a high likelihood that they won’t be very good in their rookie campaign. However, the qb would probably represent more long term value for the franchise than an elite safety. I think they should take the best player available to them when the time comes. If it happens to be a qb, then great! If it’s not, then I hope whoever they take turns out to be better than the qbs they passed on.
no but
we need to keep building our defense little by little and i really believe that picking a LB, DE, or DB will do just that. Selecting a QB in the first two rounds (unless he’s BAP) just to pick a QB could really set us back because I would feel like we just wasted a pick. I wouldn’t mind getting Stanzi in the third or fourth round.
Can't stand the truth?
im not saying you are
i was just talking about all of the jags fans that no matter who’s on the board at 16 they want Ponder no matter what. Even if Prince was on the board. lol.
Can't stand the truth?
That’s because they think Ponder can be a franchise QB.
If you think QB X is a franchise QB, you would draft Amukamara over QB X?
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, but Ponder does not equal QB X to me
but if Gene really thinks so then go ahead and take him at 16.
Can't stand the truth?
I get the thinking
and I agree that’s how the Jags will proceed. I’m GUESSING that they will agree with me that no one is this draft is a Bradford-Manning type lock (which of course won’t mean that Gabbert, Newton, and maybe Locker aren’t gone at 16), and that none of the guys left will warrant the 16 pick.
In that scenario, where we are looking for value at QB to push Garrard to play up to his (arguable) potential for a couple more years, with an eye towards replacing him after some development, I still think Dalton is the best value pick. High floor, underrated ceiling.
Franchise QB
Alfie you said the odds of a QB hiting in the first round is 50/50…not good odds, meaning for all the scouting interviews and prodays, the best talent evaluators miss half the time. This says you draft BAP on your draft board at 16 and 49. When you set up the board with scores for each player the fact one is a QB,a premium position, one is a DE, less premium etc is factored into the overall player score. Then when your time comes you draft your board BAP. This gives you the best chance of hitting not only on a QB but all the other players you draft. If your idea is to draft the best QB available (needs), then you need to plan to pay the price to move up in the draft to the position that allows you to draft that “franchise” QB.
If the quarterback you’re targeting as a franchise QB can be had in round 2, how good is he really?
Alfie, if you don’t mind, I’m going to do a fanpost today and I’m going to see whether it debunks what you’re saying or jives with it, This is very interesting because we always seem to gloss over the first and second round busts not named Jamarcus Russell.
We’ll see how it comes out, but feel free to hammer away.
I’ve already done the research on this AND posted it many times. The chance of finding a franchise QB after the first round is less than 15% over the past decade.
So, from what I have read
you are saying the chances are 15% after round 1. Are you lumping all other rounds and UFA into that 15% ?
What I want to really know is if you take the 50% chance in the first round, and the 15% in subsequent rounds, does your probability ratio outweigh your “value” ratio? In other words, you have~3X the chance of getting an elite QB in the first round, but what is the value difference in the picks based on the point system I have seen used to value picks. Gene says he is about value. Example: If that mid-second round pick is worth 1/5 the points of that mid-first round pick, than “value” says the QB is better gotten in the 2nd Round. (15/50 compared to 1/5)
by Conservative on Mar 31, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless you think Kevin Kolb is a franchise QB, there has been one drafted in the 2nd round since 2000.
There has been one good QB drafted in the 3rd round, out of 13. Matt Schaub.
There has been 5 guys in rounds 4-7 out of 75 QBs draft that were even average. Garrard, Cassel, Orton, Brady, and Bulger. We can make it six if you want to count Fitzpatrick. We’ll even throw in Kurt Warner and Tony Romo as undrafted without adding up the countless undrafted QB failures.
That’s 10 QBs who wound up at least average out of 90 picked beyond the first round.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what would you say the success rate in the 1st round is? 2nd?
My point is that I don’t subscribe to the point that "if a QB can be had in Round 2, how good is he? You’ve got a HELL of a lot of variables in there that in the grand scheme of things, people just don’t know how a college star will fare as a pro.
2010 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Sam Bradford St. Louis Rams
1 25 Tim Tebow Denver Broncos
2 48 Jimmy Clausen Carolina Panthers
2009 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions
1 5 Mark Sanchez New York Jets
1 17 Josh Freeman Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 44 Pat White Miami Dolphins
2008 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 3 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons
1 18 Joe Flacco Baltimore Ravens
2 56 Brian Brohm Green Bay Packers
2 57 Chad Henne Miami Dolphins
2007 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 JaMarcus Russell Oakland Raiders
1 22 Brady Quinn Cleveland Browns
2 36 Kevin Kolb Philadelphia Eagles
2 40 John Beck Miami Dolphins
2 43 Drew Stanton Detroit Lions
2006 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 3 Vince Young Tennessee Titans
1 10 Matt Leinart Arizona Cardinals
1 11 Jay Cutler Denver Broncos
2 49 Kellen Clemens New York Jets
2 64 Tarvaris Jackson Minnesota Vikings
2005 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Alex Smith San Francisco 49ers
1 24 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
1 25 Jason Campbell Washington Redskins
2004 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Eli Manning San Diego Chargers
1 4 Philip Rivers New York Giants
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers
1 22 J.P. Losman Buffalo Bills
2003 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Carson Palmer Cincinnati Bengals
1 7 Byron Leftwich Jacksonville Jaguars
1 19 Kyle Boller Baltimore Ravens
1 22 Rex Grossman Chicago Bears
2002 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 David Carr Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington Detroit Lions
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Washington Redskins
2001 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Michael Vick Atlanta Falcons
2 32 Drew Brees San Diego Chargers
2 53 Quincy Carter Dallas Cowboys
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Oakland Raiders
2000 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 18 Chad Pennington New York Jets
1999 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Tim Couch Cleveland Browns
1 2 Donovan McNabb Philadelphia Eagles
1 3 Akili Smith Cincinnati Bengals
1 11 Daunte Culpepper Minnesota Vikings
1 12 Cade McNown Chicago Bears
1998 – QB
Rd Sel # Player Team
1 1 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Ryan Leaf San Diego Chargers
2 60 Charlie Batch Detroit Lions
What does this list show? To me it shows there are just as many busts if not more than success stories. In fact, by my calculations, of the quarterbacks taken in the first and second rounds from 1998 to 2010, by my estimation, only 16 of the 48 quarterbacks selected in the first 2 rounds had sustained success, or 33 percent. What it shows also is that finding “the man” is not as easy as spending a first round pick on a qb. We’re a textbook case. Does that mean if you don’t draft a qb in the first round don’t pick one up at all? No.
I think to make a blanket statement that "if a qb can be had in round 2 how good is he is rather ludicrous. Pittsburgh went from 1983 to 2004 before they found their guy, Cincinnati, Miami, Buffalo, and Denver have not found theirs since Esiason, Marino, Kelly, and Elway respectively retired. I know we like to reference Brady as the exception, but do you really think the Patriots had designs on him being the man?
Leaving Kolb as a true unknown, the only 2nd round QB who was a success in that list is Drew Brees.
That’s 1 out of 12.
In the first round I count 16 of 33 as a successful pick. I didn’t count Stafford or Tebow, lack of playing time. That’s 48%.
That’s a pretty significant difference between two rounds.
That furthers my point: If he’s available in round 2, how good is he? It’s dumb luck finding them after the first round.
by Alfie Crow on Mar 31, 2011 11:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And Brees was picked when? At # 33. First pick in the second round.
"I read one article, I said, 'This guy doesn't know what he's talking about,' " Mayhew said. "Then I read another one, and I thought, 'Wait a minute, they're all saying the same thing.' -Martin Mayhew 2011 regarding Draft Gurus.
Minor correction...
Brees was the 32nd pick. Texans didn’t exist when Brees was drafted in 2000.
yeah, so successful at San Diego, he was shipped off to another team
My point was the whole damn thing is a crapshoot. You’re talking about a 35% success rate in the first round and then it goes down dramatically after that in today’s NFL. A UDFA has as much of a shot of starting as does a 5th through 7th rounder.
What was the subject of this post?
I’ve read this one before. It should have been titled, We need to draft a QB this year in the first round even if it’s a stretch.
You clearly don't understand
Defense wins championships.
Jedi Mind Tricks
My only concern is Gene believes he is the “smartest kid in the class”. He kind of showed us that train of thought with the Alualu pick at 10, even balking at trading down with SF (allegedly). I fear he may think he can get a DE at 16 and manuver his way to getting his QB with their next pick, whether that’s at 49 or trading up, because he’s “that good”. Problem is you don’t know when that next team up is gonna take your guy or make a deal with someone behind them and/or you to take them. Hell it’s happened with Revis, if you believe Vic’s story. You could also get denied your guy by a team ahead of you refusing to deal with you since you “broke the code” of GMs the prior season. (See Philadelphia last year when Gene went for Sean Lee)
Draft a Quaterback
If you draft him later than the 2nd, he better be dynamite bad ass. He better have slipped and make Gene look genius. He’d best come in slinging. Because if he is vanilla or a pretender, then what was the point to begin with? May as well have drafted another bloody punter in the 4th because it’ll have the same effect. Dull.
I expect quick ascension up the depth chart. I don’t want to see BS.
(Panthera onca)
Dancing around the Issue
We may all be saying the same thing, and arguing semantics…
If there’s a potential franchise QB at 16, you have to pick him.
If there’s not, you can’t force the pick.
What none of us know is if:
a) There will be one of those available to the Jags at 16.
b) If Gene gives that gent the ranking of franchise QB.
To summarize, only 2 QB’s get strong first round grades: Gabbert and Newton, the latter of which mostly on athletic potential. Either way, both will most likely be gone at 16. Trying to force a first-round pick out of Locker, Mallett, Dalton, Ponder, etc. does not make sense if there are better players available at other positions.
I see limitations in all these QB prospects, and would hesitate to give any of them “franchise” designations. Not to say they won’t be, but as Alfie points out, once they get past the first round, it’s unlikely.
Thoughts?
One thing's for sure
Quarterback is definitely the position of greatest disagreement and there has been little if any mention of the current QB here in Jacksonville.
Tells me that the disagreements among all of us are not necessarily Garrard-centric.
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