2011 NFL Draft: Day Two Lesson

by Brian Levenson on Apr 30, 2011 9:00 AM EDT in 2011 NFL Draft

I've realized something throughout the first two days of this draft. It's a part of the BAP approach that maybe hasn't quite sunk in to some people yet. I know it didn't quite sink in for me until today. We Jaguars fans have been spoiled the last few years by really incredible drafting. For the past two years, with each pick, I have felt like the Jaguars truly have drafted the best available player. What has made the past few drafts so incredible, though, is that most of the pure BAP picks made by the team have also gone to fill positions of need on the team. Not only did we draft the best player on the board with Eugene Monroe, but he also filled a critical team need. Tyson Alualu wasn't just Gene's top rated player left in the draft, he was a top player at a position that needed immediate attention.

In '08 and '09, Gene Smith's picks had miraculously managed to merge need and value. So far this year, I don't feel like that has been the case. That's why picking Blaine Gabbert left an odd taste in my mouth. We didn't need a QB. We had other, more depleted parts of our team that I felt should be addressed. And then, in such a stacked defensive draft, the Jaguars selected... an offensive Guard from Lehigh in the third round? It seems counter-intuitive, but it's not. It's OK. Actually, it's a good sign.

I sort of figured this out partially from watching the Jaguars draft, and partially because of the Steelers. At the bottom of the first round on Thursday, the Steelers were on the clock with Derrek Sherrod still available. "Well," I thought, "looks like the Steelers are finally going to get Big Ben some protection." Then the pick was made: Cameron Heyward, DE from Ohio State. It threw me off for a moment, because it seemed like Sherrod was a great combination of need and value, but when I looked at it objectively, I realized that Heyward was the better player of the two.

Going back to the Jaguars, I truly felt that we were going to take CB Davon House with pick #80, or maybe a LB in Mason Foster. They are good players at positions of need. When the Jags traded up, I was confused. Then we took Will Rackley. Strangely, something linked the two picks, Heyward and Rackley, in my mind. They struck me as opposite sides of the same coin: The Steelers have a major need on their offensive line and a small one at DE, but took the Heyward because he was the BAP. The Jaguars have major needs all over their defense and only a minor need on the O-line, but they took Rackley. Why? The only answer that makes any sense is that he was the BAP.

BAP picking will not always fill a need on your team, in fact often it wont. Still, these off-the-cuff picks have finally driven home the fact that Gene Smith is building the Jaguars the same way the perennial-contender Steelers do. Exactly the same way. What do I think of the Rackley pick? I love it. Not necessarily because Rackley is going to be a game-changing player, though I do believe Rackley will be good. No, I love the pick, because it helps me understand the Blaine Gabbert pick. I realized we took Gabbert for one reason only: because he was the best player available. It shows me that Gene is truly dedicated to taking the BAP regardless of need and that, my friends, is the way to build a perennial winner.

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Good post.

I had the same realization last night. Another way to look at this year’s picks is that because we met some needs in the previous 2 drafts, we don’t have QUITE as many holes that need filling – makes it a little harder for need and value to meet. In the 2009 draft, you could have thrown a rock blindfolded and hit a need for the team. After 2 drafts where we were able to address need early, some of those holes have been filled, so need won’t always line up with value as easily.

This kind of drafting isn’t always going to get great reviews from the “experts.” It’s also a lot harder for the fans who want everything fixed RIGHT NOW. But you’re right, this is how it should be done.

by Paul Bavington on Apr 30, 2011 9:15 AM EDT reply actions

This

When you start infusing talent, the holes are everywhere. Everything is a need, to varying degrees.

After a couple of years of solid talent acquisition, the gaps are easier to identify.

If you continue to draft BAP, you resolve the long-term future by adding talent at deeper positions.

The gaping needs were on D… but the future of the team is at BAP.

by shadowcamel on Apr 30, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I see it as when a player is "falling" (relative to Gene's board),

and the player’s value on the board becomes greater than what it takes to trade up and get him, they trade up and get him.

I have a hard time calling it just simply BAP because they weren’t available at our scheduled picks. We had to go up and get them. There is a BAP at every pick in the draft, but we don’t get every one of them.

by Conservative on Apr 30, 2011 9:16 AM EDT reply actions

It's still BAP

but when the perceived talent exceeds the cost, it’s worth making the deal.

It’s kind of like if you were shopping for a particular product and then a better product that you didn’t think you could afford goes on sale – so you make the move and get the better product.

DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's, or LB's ability to cover a TE.

by pksiv on Apr 30, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Best Available

Best is a relative term. Available means you have access to them. The second you leave your scheduled pick, I think BAP is no longer the right term to use. I mean, if by ‘available’ we mean at anyone’s pick, than we should be trading all of our picks for the top pick of every single draft. Every pick is available if you are willing to give up picks. When I hear Best Available, that means to me that you sit at your scheduled spot, and at that spot, you choose the highest person (or at least someone from that group) that is available at that time. What Gene is doing this year should be called Value drafting or something similar.

by Conservative on Apr 30, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

You only make the trade if the

value is there. For example, in my opinion, Atlanta didn’t get value for their picks in getting Jones at #6.The over paid. However the Jags did in moving to 10 to grab Gabbert.

BAP has always been about maximizing value of the draft picks you have based on your draft board.

DG is the best we have and help is not on the way. I realize he's not perfect, but I feel a lot better about him at QB than I do the O-Line, DB's, or LB's ability to cover a TE.

by pksiv on Apr 30, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Put it this way

If you had to choose between a nickel and a penny, and some offerd you a dime for both of them, whats the better value?

by youngnixx88788 on Apr 30, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Perfect example.

by The Linebacker on Apr 30, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly - "value"

by Conservative on Apr 30, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

smart, by shel silverstein

My dad gave me one dollar bill
‘Cause I’m his smartest son,
And I swapped it for two shiny quarters
’Cause two is more than one!

And then i took the quarters
And traded them to Lou
For three dimes-i guess he don’t know
that three is more than two!

Just then, along came old blind Bates
And just ‘cause he can’t see
He gave me four nickels for my three dimes,
And four is more than three!

And i took the nickels to Hiram Coombs
Down at the seed-feed store,
and the fool gave me five pennies for them,
And five is more than four!

And then i went and showed my dad,
and he got red in the cheeks
And closed his eyes and shook his head-
Too proud of me to speak!

Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."

by unhipcat on Apr 30, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

sometimes more isn't necessarily better

Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."

by unhipcat on Apr 30, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

The draft has been a little coming down to Earth thing

you hit it on the head how the last few drafts we have come away with BAP and need in our early picks. Not every draft is going to seem like an “A” like our last few, not saying we haven’t had a good draft but the perception and feeling I get isn’t the great one I’ve had the last few years.

by jstnblke41 on Apr 30, 2011 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

It's not over...

… ’til Pot Roast sings.

by shadowcamel on Apr 30, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Just an observation

I think the casual fan who wanted to go all defense probably wouldnt be as upset if free agency started when it normally does. By draft time the jaguars would of plugged some holes in on the defense so drafting 2 offensive players wouldnt of seemed so bad. But it seems the ignorant fan cant see the big picture so it doesnt even bother me anymore.

by OneSweetWorld on Apr 30, 2011 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

That’s what I was trying to explain. Without free agency, it magnified the defensive needs heading into the draft where a lot of people “tricked” themselves into believe defensive players would certainly have to be BAP.

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by Alfie Crow on Apr 30, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

We didn’t need a QB.

That’s what I used to say, but every expert, said that I was dumb, and didn’t know what I was thinking(SERIOUSLY), so I just went along with it, we do need a future QB, but I feel other positions could of been taken, but still I like the Gabbert pick.

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by rhettchrystal on Apr 30, 2011 9:36 AM EDT reply actions

I feel Blaine was atop Gene's board.

because a good quarterback is hard to come by, and we may have just found our good quarterback.

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by rhettchrystal on Apr 30, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

question

Do you think a lot of Jaguars fans kind of didn’t really do as much homework on Gabbert as they might have on Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick, Stanzi, etc. because the prevailing thought was that he was never going to be available to us?

I personally thought he’d fall to Minnesota or Miami prior to the draft just based on the fact that the start of the 2011 season is up in the air and GMs would not take a QB so early.

Either way, I like the fact that he went #10. 2 things work for us in negotiations. The spot he was picked and the fact that he is the #3 qb taken. Barring a rookie scale effective this draft, I see him maybe getting $2-4M more in signing bonus than Alualu, but similar terms.

by Joe Fisher on Apr 30, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

We lucked out.

And I didn’t really do to much “homework” on Gabbert either, a lot of us didn’t, because I expected him to be gone.

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by rhettchrystal on Apr 30, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

I actually did no homework on Gabbert at all. Lol

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

but

when we drafted him I started to look him up everywhere and I really like what I see. He is by far the best QB in this draft.

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

what were you seeing?

From game tape he has little to no pocket presence and had full games where he was just extremely inaccurate.
But, I do now fully believe that he was the best available player.

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I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Apr 30, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

He has an awsome throwing motion

he’s very accurate, has a great arm, and he’s very mobile in the pocket and out of it. Overall very good player. Love the pick.

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

and he can fit the ball in tight windows

which is very important.

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I completely do

I ranked Gabbert fourth behind Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick mostly because I didn’t look at Gabbert at ALL. I just assumed he was getting artificially pushed up for whatever reason. Stupid assumption, and makes my rankings look idiotic now.

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by CaliforniaJag on Apr 30, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably belongs in another post/thread...

But after soaking it in, I’m jealous of three teams’ drafts today:

1. NO: Cam Jordan, Mark Ingram, Martez Wilson, Johnny Patrick
2. DEN: Von Miller, Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, Nate Irving
3. SF: Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Chris Culliver

by shadowcamel on Apr 30, 2011 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

Also, the AFC South had one heck of a draft

TEN: Locker, Ayers, Casey
HOU: Watt, Reed, Harris
IND: Castonzo, Ijalana, Nevis

Seriously? Didn’t someone argue at least once that five of those players (Locker, Ayers, Watt, Reed, Castonzo) would be BAP at 16?

The division got considerably tougher this weekend, my friends.

by shadowcamel on Apr 30, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree, but we can't win em' all

I loved our drafts the last few years in comparison to other teams because of how many players we got, how good they were perceived to be and I knew they would all have a shot to play. I think we got good players this year, but they won’t necessarily play a ton and we won’t get a ton of them. Other teams are having those loaded drafts this year, hopefully we finish strong and get at least one more big contributor and a few guys who can play a little.

by jstnblke41 on Apr 30, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

the good teams aren't as reliant on rookies as we have had to be the last few years

by Joe Fisher on Apr 30, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

But many of them have been or will be again as their rosters age

That being said, our decline was exacerbated by some terribly wasted picks.

by Paul Bavington on Apr 30, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

2008 was a complete sunk draft

by Joe Fisher on Apr 30, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

That's a polite term for it.

by Paul Bavington on Apr 30, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

texans got some good picks, all defense, they have been drafting defense forever..is it gonna be good yet ?

by FgallosJAGS on Apr 30, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

I hope not. ;)

by Paul Bavington on Apr 30, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Question

Based on what we’ve seen this weekend, does this draft:
1) Show that BAP is not the same thing as “BAP + needs”
2) Broaden your definition of “needs”
3) Further your admiration of Gene’s willingness to stick to his board
or 4) make you really look forward to free agency?

by Paul Bavington on Apr 30, 2011 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

1, 3 and 4

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Apr 30, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Who would of thought by day 3 Jags still dont have a defensive player

by StylezMcKoolaid on Apr 30, 2011 10:06 AM EDT reply actions

This guy. :)

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by Alfie Crow on Apr 30, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

lmao alfie is actually a genius.

by FgallosJAGS on Apr 30, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

i wouldnt have.

by FgallosJAGS on Apr 30, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

You just now figured this out?

Gene always talks about how he admired and learned from the old school Pitt Steelers.

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

if we turn out to be the old school pitt steelers

then I’ll be estatic

by hawk16lx on Apr 30, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

+1

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Great post, and its true, the steelers could have drafted Sherrod or even aaron williams/ ras i dowling, they need a corner so bad..

BAP is what works, Blaine Gabbert is considered a top 5 player in the whole draft, and we got him ! Be happy, we got our future..Rackley looks like he could be a stud in the middle. I think we have have to go linebacker / receiver in this 4th round coming up..

by FgallosJAGS on Apr 30, 2011 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

i think we have to go BAP...

Can't stand the truth?

by Aristotle45 on Apr 30, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

amen

but im hoping its Robert Sands… watching his highlights on youtube he looks like a monster

by hawk16lx on Apr 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Excellent

When I read the first paragraph, I saw “we don’t need a QB,” I was like great, someone else who doesn’t understand BAP. But after reading the whole article, it was the best way to explain the BAP draft process of the Jaguars. Great job on putting this into perspective and using the Steelers as an example. I have so many NFL friends who are saying, “they need defense.” But forcing picks because of need is what got us where we are today.

I’m forwarding this to a Steeler friend of mine.

Keep it up.

by molina1202 on Apr 30, 2011 11:57 AM EDT reply actions