Quarterbacks: Logic Fail

ARLINGTON TX - SEPTEMBER 04: Quarterback Andy Dalton #14 of the TCU Horned Frogs drops back to pass against the Oregon State Beavers at Cowboys Stadium on September 4 2010 in Arlington Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The quarterback logic has gone around and around so many times that it's making me dizzy.  Some people are on board with a first-round quarterback; some have no interest.  Some people like Ponder; others prefer Kaepernick.  One thing has been established, though, and that's that first-round quarterbacks have a much better track record than quarterbacks taken in any other round.  Or has it?

I understand the logic behind quarterbacks with first-round talent being drafted in the first round.  A player like Blaine Gabbert belongs in the first round, and should follow the same probability pattern as the historical first-round quarterback pattern.  However, what of guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick?  I've seen logic used that taking a quarterback in the first round makes that player more likely to succeed than taking him in the second round.  That is a logical fallacy.  It's still the same guy.  If Andy Dalton is a second-round player, taking him in the first round doesn't increase his chances at success.  As my signature says, correlation does not imply causation.

Anyway, my point is that if your objective is to get a first-round quarterback to increase your chances of success, you don't accomplish that in any way by taking a second or lower-round quarterback in the first round; you have to take a quarterback that BELONGS in the first round.  The draft slot has nothing to do with the man; the player does not change based on where he has been selected.  Anyway, something to keep in mind as the draft rolls around.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Big Cat Country

You must be a member of Big Cat Country to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Cat Country. You should read them.

Join Big Cat Country

You must be a member of Big Cat Country to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Cat Country. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker