History Says Gabbert and Shorts Could Only Be Average.
by Trenton Williams on May 25, 2011 8:34 AM EDT
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PrintEvery team has had their share of hits and misses in the NFL draft, and the Jaguars are no exception. A concerning fact that Jaguar’s fan should be worried about is the organization’s lack of ability to draft talent at the quarterback and receiver position. Since the1995 draft, the beginning of the franchise, Jacksonville has drafted a total of 25 quarterbacks and receivers. Some of the players have been able to cause a spark, but none have made the leap to superstar nor become the clear cut favorite.
The Jaguars have only drafted five QB’s in team history and hate him or love him; David Garrard has proven to be the best of the bunch. Leading the team to the playoffs once, and setting the franchise passing touchdown record, Garrard has done the most for the Jaguars out of the quarterbacks drafted. Byron Leftwich did show some promise at one point, but fizzled and eventually parted ways with the team. Not to mention Leftwich, was backed by a strong team and still couldn’t produce enough to become a great QB. It’s safe to say Jonathon Quinn was a bust and Rob Johnson could never oust Mark Brunell for the starting role. Now the stage is set for incoming quarterback Blaine Gabbert to prove the statistics wrong or just fall in line with the other lackluster Jaguars quarterbacks.
For Gabbert, it could be a treacherous path because the Jaguars have also failed to draft great receivers, to support their quarterbacks. He could find himself in a situation similar to Garrard. Garrard has often been critiqued about his play and has lost some support from the fan base but Garrard has never been given the opportunity to play with a superstar receiver. By the time Garrard took over, Jimmy Smith had retired and has been stuck with a group of underwhelming and inconsistent receivers since. Speculation isn’t always accurate, but I’m sure Garrard’s numbers would improve if he we’re throwing to Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. Hopefully, GM Gene Smith can draft some talent to help Gabbert progress into a great quarterback.
The receivers drafted by the Jaguars haven’t proven to be spectacular either. Off the twenty wide outs brought in, the class is headed by players like Mike Sims-Walker, Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford and Matt Jones. All the receivers mention played well enough to earn starting roles and most of them have had productive years, but all have been inconsistent. Inconsistency and injury could be a trademark for the receivers drafted by the Jaguars. Many have failed to make the roster after their first contract was up. Some exclusion can be given to Mike Thomas. In his first year as a starter Thomas had a productive year and it would take a few more years to determine whether not he’ll become like every other receiver drafted by Jacksonville. Even though they are have spent only a few years on the roster, Jarrett Dillard is injury prone meaning he hasn’t contributed much on the field and Tiquan Underwood seems to drop more balls than he catches. Cecil Shorts III is the newest member to join the club of Jaguar’s draftee’s and has the opportunity to become the superstar receiver needed for the franchise. He’s poised to claim the starting slot receiver job, where he could be a good fit until h progresses.
Since Gene Smith became the Jaguars general manager, so far the picks have panned out seemingly well. It still is too early to determine if his selections were complete hits, but for the most part they have been solid. The Jaguars seem like a franchise snake bitten when it comes to quarterbacks and receivers but with Smith making the calls, let’s hope that luck can change.
Complete List of Jaguars QB and WR Draftees
QB
1995- Rob Johnson, USC
1998- Jonathon Quinn, Middle Tennessee State
2002- David Garrard, East Carolina
2003- Byron Leftwich, Marshall
2011- Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
WR
1995- Curtis Marsh, Utah
1996- Reggie Barlow, Alabama State
1996- Chris Doering, Florida
1996- Clarence Jones, Tennessee State
1996- Gregory Span, Jackson State
1998- Alvis Whitted, North Carolina State
2000- R. Jay Soward, USC
2000- Emanuel Smith, Arkansas
2001- Richmond Flowers, Chattanooga
2002- Kendall Newson, Middle Tennessee State
2004- Reggie Williams, Washington
2004- Ernest Wilford, Virginia Tech
2005- Matt Jones, Arkansas
2005- Chad Owens, Hawaii
2007- Mike Sims-Walker, UCF
2007- John Broussard, San Diego State
2009- Mike Thomas, Arizona
2009- Jarett Dillard, Rice
2009- Tiquan Underwood, Rutgers
2011- Cecil Shorts III, Mount Union
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2000- Emanuel Smith, Arkansas
This pick really kils me. Tom Brady went a few selections after this one.
I get that you're floating out theories just for the hell of it..
but this is 100% Grade A bullflop. In 16 years, we’ve drafted 5 qbs, only one of them drafted to be “the man”. We’ve gotten more than we expected out of Garrard and if you think about it, thus far, the best QB in terms of indirect value was Rob Johnson by virtue of flipping him into a #1 pick who happened to be Fred Taylor.
Rob Johnson was a 4th rounder, so in effect, flipping a 4th rounder for a 1st round franchise running back 3 years later was sheer genius and in my mind, the best trade this franchise has ever made.
You’ve listed a lot of players here, but failed to include the rounds in which they were picked. You make a very general argument, but if you peel the onion a bit, you quickly realize that not every receiver you listed was even a lock to make the 53 man roster. Soward was never meant to be more than a return man and speed guy in a 4 WR set. Matt Jones was a project who didn’t give a damn, and Reggie Williams had his moments but smoked his way out of the NFL.
You named 3 guys from the first 2 draftsof the Gene Smith era – Underwood, Dillard, and Thomas.
Underwood – 7th rounder who got meaningful PT but has a problem with drops,
Thomas – 4th rounder coming into his own as our most reliable wideout
Dillard – 5th rounder injuries have stunted his development
Shorts is a 4th rounder from a small school. I wish people would realize that we are fast getting to a point where not every draft pick is going to make the roster. Not saying this is the case for Shorts, but we’ve had atypical productivity out of our last 2 draft classes due in large part to the total bust that was the 2008 class and the roster purge after the 2008 season.
How much productivity can one really expect out of a late rounder, especially Underwood? By virtue of his draft position, he’s met expectations and is at a point where he needs to show improvement to keep his spot.
by Joe Fisher on May 25, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bullflop?
The later the round you’re drafted the less you are expected to contribute? I guess Terrell Davis didn’t get the memo, or Zach Thomas, or the most famous of them all, Tom Brady. Its the NFL, every player is a grown man and is expected to compete and earn their spot.
by Trenton Williams on May 25, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Ummm no they are not..
The teams hope that the contribute and if they turn out to be great then that’s all the better. For every Brady, Thomas and Davis there are hundreds of Ramzee Robinsons’.
The only QB I think the jags can say they truly missed on would be Leftfoot and that is because he was a 1st rounder.
The WR’s, you have a little more standing as the jags have drafted 3 1st rounders.
So teams waste a draft pick on a player who won't contribute?
Why would a team use a pick on a player they think won’t compete? I’m sorry it doesn’t make any sense to me. Maybe its my Ray Lewis way of thinking. That given the opportunity, players should use the time to rise up to the occasion. Its their job, and responsibility. The guy lining up across from you, bleeds the same red blood, and puts his pants on the same way as you. Fear no man.
by Trenton Williams on May 25, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not wasted
but that guy across from them, and competing for the same job as them, is training and trying just as hard or maybe harder than them to succeed.
Anyone who thinks that all draft picks should become Terrell Davis or Tom Brady just doesn’t get it.
The draft is nothing but an educated guess and players will fail for so many reasons. Who knows if Tom Brady would have ever become a starter had he not been in New England ? Or Terrell Davis ever rushed for even a single 100 yard game had he not gone to Denver which was basically a RB clinic when he was there and for several no-name RB’s afterward.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
is there a real difference between a 6th or 7th rounder and an UDFA?
you’ve named 3 extremely exceptional cases. Exceptional being the operative word as the percentages dramatically decrease the later you’re picked.
Hell, I’d almost rather be a UDFA because at least you’d get your choice to come in and prove your worth. Look at Myron Rolle. Drafted by Tennessee but cut. If he was undrafted, who knows how luck may have turned out. Bart Scott, undrafted, James Harrison, and the most famous of all, Kurt Warner.
My point is you have about as much of a chance catching on UDFA as you do being drafted, and in some cases, a better chance.
Joe, you’re honestly going to sit there and argue on this? Give me a break bro, this is like common sense stuff. There was no question as to where or why these guys were brought in and frankly I don’t care either. The point is simple. We’ve never drafted a franchise qb, closest being Garrard (who I don’t necessarily dislike at all), the biggest fact is that of 22 wide receivers drafted, and that’s the best we can do to give our qb’s something to work with? Give me a break. This receiving core has and will continue to be atrocious making each and every qb look bad until we get some quality receivers.
I called the Cecil Shorts pick so many months in advance. It was obvious Gene loves his small school kids who don’t get enough looks, and he was the best small school kid out there. Now that doesn’t mean I think this guy is going to develop into a star. We’ll be lucky to get consistent moderate production out of this guy. Remember, Shorts did break all those school records set by Pierre Garcon. But I’m pretty sure Peyton throws the ball twice as much as any of our qb’s and is heavily reliant on his receivers. As good as Gabbert may be, unless he has the supporting cast of receivers similar to Peyton, he will struggle to get yards in the air.
I thought this was an excellent post pointing out great things. You couldn’t have hit it on the head any better bro, good post.
Now don’t get my part confused about Gabbert needing a supporting cast like Peyton.. I’m not implying that we need to go out and find a bunch of receivers, I’m simply stating that you need another weapon outside of Mike Thomas and possibly Cecil Shorts. And sorry folks, not sold on Jason Hill still. People talk like he never got his opportunity in SF or something, this guy proved to not be a consistent enough receiver to rely on and I bet it shows early on in the season. Shorts will probably take over #2 receiver by the end of the year, not that it means he’ll produce a ton though.
I'm with you on Hill
I can’t buy stock in him right now, I need to see more. Hungry players tend to sell out more. He did make Garrard look good a couple of times.
So we need to see more on Hill
but we’re okay with the nothing we’ve seen from Shorts ?
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
I don't expect him to peak this year
but I just thought the argument was flawed.
Though looking back at it, I guess I was really answering the praise of Cecil Shorts from chronryan and the lack of faith in Hill…
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
I suppose you’re having issues with comprehension so I’ll clear it up for you. All I said was that I expect Shorts to take over the #2 receiver slot by the end of the season. I also stated that I didn’t really expect much out of him stats wise. The only thing you comprehended properly was my lack of faith in Jason Hill and rightfully so.. people on here really need to stop throwing words in people’s mouths, making it seem like they’re saying things they’re not just in order to support their own pointless nonsense argument. But good on ya bud
I understood you fine
you haven’t seen Shorts even in practice yet you expect him to take over the #2 receiver spot. You’ve seen him make a few big plays but since he didn’t do anything in S.F. , you have no faith in Hill. Got it.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
That should indicate just how much doubt I have in Jason Hill. It’s not really an indication of me thinking that Cecil Shorts is going to do much of anything. You seem to think that by me saying Cecil Shorts will likely take over the #2 spot, that I’m somehow saying he’s going to be this good receiver before I even see him. That’s not the case pal. The case is who will Cecil Shorts have to beat out for that spot other than Hill. NO ONE! Dillard and Underwood are not competition and if you think they are, you should have your head checked. Just because Cecil Shorts will likely take over the #2 slot, doesn’t mean anything, because he could likely be the worst #2 receiver in football. Hill isn’t what you think he is, and it’ll show very quickly unfortunately
My main point is, if Gene doesn’t go out and sign a receiver, this team is going to have trouble passing the ball, Garrard or Gabbert it won’t matter
Or it could mean that
maybe, just maybe, Gene has more information and a better feeling about the WR’s than you do.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
+1 what you fool? lol.. you guys make me laugh so hard some times.. if Gene was so informed, we wouldn’t be amongst the worst set of receivers in the league.. why do you even argue this? you guys just argue for the sack of arguing sometimes I think
So you really think
you know more than Gene Smith about scouting players ?
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
Is it the receivers or the triggerman
I think if you bring this point to pksiv, his head will explode.
I actually think it's a combination of both
plus a offensive line that has been better at run blocking than pass blocking.
I also think the WR’s should be improving each year. It’s a pretty young group and very few WR’s come right out of college and excel on teams without a top 2-3 QB.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
Eureka!!!
agreement. Seems like a lot of people have this notion that players performance is static and cannot improve, even rookies. Some guys have hit their peak, I mean do you expect Meester to find the fountain of youth again? Manuwai? You’d like to think as the receivers improve so will the triggerman, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. I wonder if Smith figured that MSW (and I’m a big fan of MSW) was as good as he was going to get and just decided to move on or if he was anticipating a protacted and contentious negotiation and figured it wasn’t worth the hassle as he was not really head and shoulders better than what we currently have. Or he could have a trick up his sleeve.
Based on comments I've seen
I think they had given up on him doing what was necessary to get better. We’ll find out just what the rest of the league thinks once this lockout ends and see where he ends up and what type of contract he gets.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
I'm the fool...
for thinking Gene has more information about the receievrs than you do? Now that’s a real LOL!!! I wasn’t arguing anything but more like agreeing with a fact. You’re the same guy that keeps saying the Jaguars receivers are so terrible before any games are played. I’d take our receivers over the Rams receivers anyday. Sounds like you’re the fool.
Something tells me...
we aren’t the only team in need of receivers. I really do think we could do worse. You inlclude the fact that we run 70% of time and course our receivers aren’t going to have a lot of stats. But who cares as long as they catch the ball when it is thrown to them.
which only goes to demonstrate the potential for huge shortfalls of needs drafting
Soward: Coughlin is a needs drafter and clearly proved it here.
Williams and Jones were drafted because Leftwich “needed” a receiver. No one though Williams should have been drafted that high. And everyone knew Jones was a huge risk.
I’m convinced Shack drafted them because he saw a lot of himself in Leftwich and made some unwise decisions to help him succeed.
Regardless, there can be no demonstrated connection between their failures to do well and how Gabbert and Shorts will play.
Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."
Late round picks are not expected to be every-down players
Typically you’re expecting players picked in rounds 1-3 to be a starter, while those picked later are usually being considered to fulfill a certain role based on their specific skill set.
Rod Isaac as a 5th round pick, for instance, is expected to come in as a nickel corner on passing downs, and if he performs in that role capably you have to consider that a success. If he becomes a starting corner, you have to consider that an unexpected bonus.
Garrard was thought to be the "man" also.
He was drafted in the Coughlin area and was expectd to eventually take Brunell’s spot, but the next season Jack Del Rio came in and wasn’t sold.
by Trenton Williams on May 25, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don't think he was drafted to be "the man" but more of a serviceable back up
We’ve beaten the success ratio of quarterbacks and round drafted to death. Also, if JDR wasn’t “sold” then why has he stuck with him for 4 years and passed on a plethora of qbs since 2003 until now? Surely if JDR and the GM did not agree on a position with such importance as QB JDR would have quit, right?
When was the last time a Head Coach in the NFL quit ?
Well, besides the jerk here in Atlanta.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
Not talking mid season
Jeff Fisher. semantics I know, but in my mind, mutuality = quitting.
You live in ATL? heading there in early August for a convention. We should drink!
Sure
though in early August I’ll most likely be in Chicago for Lollapalooza!
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
It doesn't travel anymore. It's in Grant Park on the lake every year, first week of August.
It’s 3 full days with 2 headliners each night. Actual schedule isn’t out but the biggest acts this year are Eminem, Muse, Coldplay, Foo Fighters, My Morning Jacket, Deadmau5…. plus 100’s of others..
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
i understand what you are saying, Gene has not taken a stab in the first couple rounds at a WR yet, so u cant really judge Underwood in the 7th;
Dillard in the 5th, and Mike thomas was 4th but is our best WR.
While it is interesting to see all of the QBs and WRs picked throughout the years
I don’t see the value in lumping together the picks of multiple GMs. We have 3 eras: Coughlin, Shack/Jack/Gene, and Gene. Analysis within each of those eras is certainly beneficial, and to some extent you can even bridge the gap between the previous GM triumvirate and our current GM situation because no one knows with certainly what say Gene had before, but I don’t think it’s a fair representation to lump all picks within the history of the franchise together.
I hate when the national media fails to distinguish GM Gene’s picks from the Shack era picks, and I don’t want to see local fans doing the same.
I think the Shack era was
Jack gets a vote
Gene gets a vote
Shack gets three votes.
the way I understood it, there was a lot of input, but the final decision was Shack’s.
Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."
The Jimmy Smith story is really interesting
Amazing that he might have always been buried on Dallas’s roster.
by jstnblke41 on May 25, 2011 5:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This all just means we're due.
In all seriousness its silly to say our guys aren’t going to work out because guys in the past haven’t. Thats like saying we should just give up and not even compete.
The TITLE actually says
COULD only be average.
I think regardless of the specifics of which GM drafted them in which round, it should be fairly obvious to anyone who follows the NFL and pays any attention to the draft that the history of the draft gives a pretty high probability that every player drafted “Could only be average”
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
I guess my point is with regard to the receiver, it is a position that you really don't need to draft high to get successful players
I am really going to watch Atlanta closely to see if they really are Julio Jones away from the Lombardi Trophy. I’m expecting a season similar to the Jags 2008 year.
I thought about us when they did that too
Very risky, if it doesn’t get them a ring then that trade will sink that team IMO.
by jstnblke41 on May 25, 2011 7:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
They will be much better than we were
in 08. No one has as many injuries as we did in 08. And They still have healthy players on their lines.
We lost 2 offensive linemen the day of our season opener in 2008
one in pregame and another during the game, not to mention the team was still coming to grips with the Richard Collier incident barely a week earlier.
Stranger things have happened.
I’m not sure about their defense though. Maybe they’ll make some moves free agency to upgrade their D-line, but their defense isn’t build to win in the postseason. That’s why it’s so dangerous to do what they did in the draft. There’s just too much downside risk to making a move like that and it doesn’t seem like the reward could possibly worth the risk, unless he’s another Andre Johnson or Fitzgerald, or at least mentioned in the next 2 or 3 behind them, that’s just not worth it.
As a Bama fan, I was in all actuality very underwhelmed by the Julio Jones era
I thought Prothro was a better college receiver. Julio always seemed injured.
I pretty much agree
Wasn’t he the top kid coming out of high school? I will say though that the man can make some plays other guys can’t with his size amd surprisingly great hands. I don’t think they got him the ball enough honestly but injuries probably played a role in that.
by jstnblke41 on May 27, 2011 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Everyone seems to think a draft pick has to be boom or bust
Majority fall somewhere in the middle. They got a few years out of Leftwich and he is still hanging around the league somewhere. I don’t think he is 30 yet so he could resurface. Garrard did nothing for his first four years in the league except collect a pay check for the most part. He has had a few decent seasons, but is past the high point of his career. The time was certainly right to bring his replacement into town, and if you’re going to do that there is no point in going half way. Gabbert was easily the best quarterback in the draft, with the most upside, so really it was a no brainer at #10 overall.
Shorts was a reaction pick to the Gabbert move, I believe. They used up the top two picks to get Gabbert, and weren’t going to get anything spectacular in the draft from that point on. Cecil doesn’t have much upside if any at all, but he is 23 years old and has caught a lot of balls, so they grabbed him for short term help. I’m sure the team realizes they have precious little talent at the wideout position and no guarantee they can get anything better out of free agency. Rackley was another, but less drastic reaction pick to the first day. He also has the maturity to contribute fairly soon and the smarts to learn quickly. However he is a couple of years younger than Shorts and plays a position that matures later. I think they envision him developing along with Gabbert and the two young tackles Monroe and Britton to form the nucleus of a long term offensive line. Shorts will probably be gone and forgotten two years from now, but Rackley could be a starter for the next decade.
Do you really believe
that Gene Smith made “reactionary” picks ?
and the phrase is “boon or bust” I think “boom or bust” would be the same thing, they were no good.
Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011
this is one of the most ignorant things
i have ever read in my life. i feel dumber just reading this comment.
Can't stand the truth?
I disagree...
with you on several accounts. I’m with pksiv on the whole “reactionary” picks thing. I highly doubt Gene would do such a thing. He said after making the Rackley pick that he was the last player that he had in his ranking, which is why he traded up to select him before another team could. I’m also not sure on your reasoning behind your opinion of Cecil either. To say he won’t be on the team in two years is really premature to say the least, the guy hasn’t even had a chance to display what he can do. If Shorts isn’t on the team in two years, it’s probably because he was traded for a draft pick to a team with a more dire need for a receiver than the Jags. Of course the only way I see that happening if is Gene drafts a protypical #1 receiver and Dillard gets over his injury problems. But even then, that would require two things to happen that isn’t a guarantee to occur. Gene has a good track record with his lower round draft picks, so I’ll say history says Shorts will be on the team for a while.
you're stoned
I always thought Gene Smith’s MO is to pick 2 guys at the same position consecutively to kind of hedge his bets.
I think it's safe to say
Mr. Trenton Williams’ lips are wrapped around Garrard’s you know what and he really hates the Jags 2011 First Round Pick (Blaine Gabbert).
That's not what...
I got from this fanpost. But hey, everyone’s perception differs.
wow… a lot of crystal ball business is still in full effect… and not because it’s all we have to talk about… that’s a cop-out… just support your team and shut the hell up in regards to knowing it all… sheesh
Sean
Pax Armis Acquiritur
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