The Jaguars' Success is Dependent on One Man, Rather, One Leg

No, I can't produce one of those Sports Science videos ESPN makes that opens the eyes of fans to a player's true skill. One player will make the difference for the Jaguars this year. He doesn't have ridiculous leaping ability, he's not the best cover guy, he's a pretty good tackler in the open field and has a professional golf swing Charles Barkley couldn't compete with. That player is Josh Scobee.

A kicker can win you games, lose you games, and can decide between a coach's blind faith in giving his guy a chance to kick from 59 yards or his ignorance for giving him a shot from 30 when he's already missed three attempts that day. I will be honest, when Scobee is lining up for a game-winning field goal, the world, not just EverBank Field stands still. And much of the Jaguars' success this season will depend on that roller coaster ride that is Scobee's right leg.

So let's get to the stats. With kickers, the info we're looking for isn't basic stats, consisting of field goals made and attempted. We look at kicking splits, which consider stats based on time of day, temperature, opponent, and even the conditions of the game in terms of if it was one-sided or close. We also looking at kicking situations, which consider stats based on what down and distance it was, what time of the game the kick was at, etc. 

Here's the important stats I've come up with. These are all over Scobee's young 7 year career with the team:

1. In division games vs the AFC South, which we all know are most important, in 39 games,  he's 52-72 in field goals and really feels it from long distance going 7-10 from 50+ yards.

2. Of the 32 teams in the league, all of which Scobee has kicked against more than once, 11 of those teams he's kicked 100% against. One that really stood out to me is in 6 games against the Bills over his career, he's gone nearly perfect going 17-18, which is an impressive 94.4%.

3. When Scobee kicks well, the Jaguars win. When he doesn't, they usually lose. This is an eye-opening statistic. In 54 Jaguar wins over his career, Scobee has kicked 85.0% in those games. In 50 losses, he's kicked a bleak 66.3%.

4. His clutchness still trumps all. You want your kicker to be able to handle the pressure when it counts-the fourth quarter. Under the heading of late and close games, which is 41 of Scobee's career games, he's kicked 80.6% including a mind-blowing 5-6 from 50+. We won't forget the three game winners he's had against the Colts, two on the road, one of which he was a young rookie, and the third from 59 that made all Jaguars fans, including me, feel a sensation of ecstasy last season. As a side note, he's also 2-2 in OT games that gave the Jags the win, which is nice also. Teams don't usually win in OT after blowing a chance to win with a field goal in the extra period.

Clearly from the third point, it is key that for the Jaguars to succeed, Josh Scobee must kick well consistently. It can be a roller coaster ride, but maybe if we all wear his jersey to the games he'll do better. I don't have stats for it, but my fellow fan that has sat next to me at games for many season wears his jersey often, and when he does, boy it seems like he kicks better. Let's all show some love for the guy that can consistently put a dagger through the heart of the Colts.

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