Jaguars Offensive Line: Where do they rank on Football Outsiders?

by Alfie Crow on Jul 12, 2011 12:01 PM EDT in Jacksonville Jaguars News

I'm sure many of you are familiar with Football Outsiders and the kind of analytics they measure. We've used them before and looked at their previews for the Jacksonville Jaguars and also looked at various stats they measure. Today, we're going to look at how Football Outsiders ranked the Jaguars offensive line.

First, an explanation of how these stats are derived:

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to offensive line the based on the following percentages:

Losses: 120% value

0-4 Yards: 100% value

5-10 Yards: 50% value

11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.

10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

Got all of that? Yeah, me too. Anyway, to the important stuff:

RUN BLOCKING												PASS PROTECTION
Rank	Team	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	2nd Level Yards	2nd Level Rank	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	Team	Rank	Sacks	Adjusted Sack Rate
2	JAX	4.63	4.62	63%	13	13%	3	1.35	2	0.70	18	JAX	24	38	7.7%

Fancy, right?

As we all know, the Jaguars were very successful rushing the football and not that successful passing the ball. The Jaguars ranked 3rd in the NFL in rushing and 27th in passing, and these rankings just hammer that home. That's kind of what we already knew, however.

Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders was on with Pete Prisco on 930 The Fox discussing some of these rankings. He specifically made mention that the Jaguars offensive line improved quite a bit when left guard Justin Smiley was replaced in the lineup by Vince Manuwai, especially in the run game. Schatz also touched on the low pass blocking rankings and made mention that realistically they could be higher, but David Garrard tends to lend himself to more sacks because of his play style. Notably, he takes sacks and tends to hold on to the football.

Football Outsiders digs a bit deeper in the running game, breaking down where the teams run. Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars were a left-handed running team, chosing to run predominantly from center Brad Meester to left tackle Eugene Monroe. The Jaguars Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) on the left end was 4.70 (ranked 8th), left tackle 4.75 (ranked 5th), and mid-guard 4.63 (ranked 3rd). The right side wasn't horrible, but wasn't as stout as the left aside from running outside the right tackle. The right tackle came in at 4.26 ALY (ranked 13th) and the right end at 4.78 (ranked 6th).

Football Outsiders then breaks down where the team actually ran, percentage wise.

Team	RB Carries	LEFT END	LEFT TACKLE	MID/ GUARD	RIGHT TACKLE	RIGHT END
JAX	421	14%	4%	64%	5%	12%

Again, this shows the Jaguars ran predominantly up the middle and to the left side. I assume quite a bit of that had to do with having Vince Manuai on the left side, and lack of Eben Britton on the right. Only the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills ran more or the same percentage of their carries up the middle than the Jaguars. The Jaguars were 14% higher at the MID/GUARD level than the NFL average of 50%.

This really doesn't tell us more than we know, all it does it put numbers down to confirm that the Jaguars are in-fact a power running team offensively. The amount of carries up the gut too, makes me lean more towards the thought of adding carries to Rashad Jennings workload. The last think Maurice Jones-Drew needs with questions about his knee is more pounding up the middle of the offensive line.

At least the MID/GUARD percentage was down from 2009, when it was a whopping 76%!

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Comments

Awesome collection of stats, this is very informative

By FO’s metrics, our line is definitely getting better, but still has some improvement left. I’m encouraged by the run blocking stats, but one thing stands out to me: why aren’t we running off tackle more?

In 2009 we drafted bookend tackles, and l expected Monroe to be an elite run blocker at this point. I understand Britton was out or injured half the year, but I would have thought there would be more runs around left end/tackle. In fact, I believe the longest run of the year was Jenning’s 76 yard scamper against the Raiders, which came around left end.

It certainly speaks to something I’ve heard Gene say repeatedly since the season ended: Meester played fantastic football in the latter half of the year. They wouldn’t be running up the gut 64% of the time if he wasn’t playing at a high level. I’m glad to see he should be able to hold up for at least another year.

by Distance on Jul 12, 2011 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

It’s probably a good idea to run up the middle when your RB doesn’t have knees.

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by Brian Levenson on Jul 12, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

Hey now

He has 1 good knee…

by Distance on Jul 12, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Im joking

but seriously it does. The wider you take a run, the harder the cut to get upfield. Mojo was also missing a little bit of breakaway speed, so he kind of switched over to a Clinton Portis type game (which is to say he averaged 4.5 yard a carry because every single carry was for around 4 or 5 yards).

It really impressed me that he could do that, especially since he was a speed guy who was more known for his big plays than consistency for the first few years of his career.

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by Brian Levenson on Jul 12, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't realize it at the time

But all of the sudden, he was getting caught from behind last year. He has absolutely lost that breakaway speed you’re talking about.

It’s understandable when you later hear he’s playing with a bone on bone injury in his knee, but extremely unsettling. Do RB’s ever regain speed after an injury like that? Or is he now just going to be a pounding bowling ball, good for short yardage situations?

Also, thanks for the insight about the how hard it might be to cut upfield on a wide run with a bum knee. I was thinking that didn’t add up, because, as mentioned in the article, they ran up the middle 76% of the time in 2009, but that was probably to avoid running behind rookie tackles.

by Distance on Jul 12, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

He can

regain his speed. Explosion is a muscle thing. And the good thing about the knee is that it’s stable(Never was a problem). So he can still cut an etc. In fact he could cut last year on it (with pain, might have also felt unsure about it). What you can’t do is overwork your knee, which makes you slower because you’re not maintaining your muscle with workouts. With repair and rest he good be good as new.

by Ewdtrey on Jul 13, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

MJD’s knee was never a problem?

It’s stable and he can cut?

Where are you getting this information? He was medically cleared to simply run 3 weeks ago.

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by Alfie Crow on Jul 13, 2011 8:16 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think he meant

the stability of it wasn’t a problem. Not the entire knee.

Here's hoping we have NFL football in 2011

by pksiv on Jul 13, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Why are you taking post-surgery information and comparing it to Ewdtrey’s information/opinion that he clearly stated was based on during the season last year?

by Conservative on Jul 13, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Why the Middle Runs?

We likely ran up the middle so much because of our competition. The Texans, Colts, and Titans are all weaker at DT. Whereas they are all pretty strong at DE. I agree giving Jennings and Karim middle carries is a good idea. I also like this stats as they confirm Koetter knows what he’s doing.

by true floridian on Jul 13, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

From what I undersand of Mojo's knee trouble...

It wasn’t ever really a muscle thing as much as it was grinding away a tendon or something, so Mojo certainly could come back at full speed next year. If it was bone on bone that’s something you could hypothetically play through (Floyd Landis rode the tour de france with bone on bone action in his hip) it’d just be absurdly painful and the danger of further injury is serious. (Landis actually needed a hip replacement after the tour was over if I remember right).

Basically, it would do just what we saw happen with mojo: it’d make a player nervous to plant hard or fully exert himself for fear of further damage, so he’d be slower and less aggressive with his cuts.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
I'm willing to drink the Kool-ade, but I'm hungry for the truth.

by Brian Levenson on Jul 13, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions