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Around SBN: NFL Safety Ryan Clark's Motivational Workout

WR analysis that applies to free agents we're interested in.

EDIT: I thought this was really good, so I bumped it and put on the FP - Alfie


Metric analysis of big WRs by Fantasy Football Metrics with surprising results. According to this data we should be targeting in order Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe but we should have kept Mike Sims-Walker and keep Robiskie because they are top 15 talents.

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/Draft_2011_WR%20Stat%20Ranking_3-1-11_2.0.htm

87 Dillard, Jarett WR 5-10 187 26 3 Rice
81 Osgood, Kassim WR 6-5 220 31 9 San Diego State
15 Price, Taylor WR 6-0 205 24 2 Ohio
18 Robiskie, Brian WR 6-3 209 24 3 Ohio State
80 Thomas, Mike WR 5-8 198 24 3 Arizona
17 West, Chastin WR 6-1 214 24 1 Fresno State
84 Shorts III, Cecil WR/RS 6-0 193 24 R Mount Union

Note how Robiskie, Thomas,Taylor, West and Shorts are all the same ages despite the experience difference.

I'd keep Shorts (KR), Thomas (slot), Robiskie and either West or Taylor (posession), Osgood as a TE, sign either Colston, Bowe or Jackson as a feature WR and then draft two of Wright/Sanu/Toon/Quick/Dwight Jones in rounds 2 and 3

Star-divide

Rating Last First Yr College H H W Hands Speed Agility TD
1.659 Jackson Vincent 2005 N. Colorado 6 4.8 241 A B A- A+
1.592 Edwards Braylon 2005 Michigan 6 3.0 210 A B A- A+
1.500 Johnson Calvin 2007 Georgia Tech 6 5.0 239 A+ A INC A+
1.483 Nicks Hakeem 2009 UNC 6 0.6 212 A+ B B- A+
1.403 Moss Randy 1997 Marshall 6 4.0 205 A+ A INC A+
1.333 Fitzgerald Larry 2004 Pittsburgh 6 3.1 221 A B- INC A+
1.216 Austin Miles 2006 Monmouth 6 2.1 215 B+ B- C+ A+
1.142 White Roddy 2005 UAB 6 1.3 207 A B B- A
1.104 Alexander Danario 2010 Missouri 6 5.0 215 A+ D+ INC A+
1.005 Walker Javon 2002 Florida State 6 3.0 210 B- A B+ C+
0.972 Bryant Dez 2010 Oklahoma 6 2.0 225 A+ B- C- A+
0.971 Johnson Andre 2002 Miami, Fla 6 2.0 220 B B+ B+ C+
0.954 Dickerson Dorin 2010 Pittsburgh 6 1.8 226 C+ A- B- A-
0.902 Meachem Robert 2007 Tennessee 6 2.0 214 B A- B- A
0.863 Robiskie Brian 2009 Ohio State 6 2.7 209 B- B- A A-
0.860 Sims-Walker Mike 2007 C. Florida 6 1.8 209 A A B- B-
0.857 Bowe Dwayne 2007 LSU 6 2.2 221 B+ C A- B+
0.813 Rogers Charles 2003 Michigan State 6 2.3 202 B B+ INC A
0.801 Colston Marques 2006 Hofstra 6 4.6 224 C+ C B- B-

Rating Last First Yr College H H W Hands Speed Agility TD
0.791 Avant Jason 2006 Michigan 6 0.5 212 B+ C B- C+
0.787 Jackson Chad 2006 Florida 6 0.8 213 B- A A+ C
0.786 Williams Roy 2004 Texas 6 2.5 212 A B A- B+
0.781 Simpson Jerome 2008 Costal Carolina 6 2.0 199 B+ B+ D A+
0.773 Marshall Brandon 2006 C. Florida 6 4.5 229 B- C- B- B+
0.771 Robinson Laurent 2007 Illinois State 6 2.0 199 B+ A+ B B+
0.759 Thomas Demaryius 2010 Georgia Tech 6 3.3 224 A C C A-
0.741 Jones James 2006 San Jose State 6 0.8 207 A- C C B
0.720 Williamson Troy 2005 South Carolina 6 2.0 203 C+ A C+ B
0.716 Britt Kenny 2009 Rutgers 6 2.7 218 B- C+ C B-
0.674 Baskett Hank 2006 New Mexico 6 3.0 224 B- C+ B C+
0.651 Massaquoi Mohamed 2009 Georgia 6 1.5 210 B+ D INC C
0.649 Hardy James 2008 Indiana 6 5.0 220 B B B C+
0.642 Monk Marcus 2008 Arkansas 6 4.0 222 B+ C C B+
0.633 Nelson Jordy 2008 Kansas St 6 2.6 217 A+ B- C+ B+
0.628 Naanee Legedu 2007 Boise St 6 2.1 225 D A- A C
0.616 Barden Ramses 2009 Cal Poly 6 6.0 229 A+ C- D+ B+
0.602 Schilens Chaz 2008 San Diego State 6 4.0 225 C- A- B C+
0.600 Williams Mike 2010 Syracuse 6 1.5 221 B C B B+
0.590 Heyward-Bey Darrius 2009 Maryland 6 1.5 210 D A+ B+ C
0.589 Davis Craig 2007 LSU 6 1.4 207 C B+ INC D-
0.586 Orton Greg 2009 Purdue 6 2.5 207 C- D+ B D+
0.583 Crabtree Michael 2009 Texas Tech 6 1.3 215 B- D INC C+
0.576 Jenkins Michael 2004 Ohio State 6 5.0 217 B- D+ C B-
0.558 Morgan Josh 2008 Virginia Tech 6 0.3 219 C+ B- C- C+
0.545 Benn Arrellious 2010 Illinois 6 1.0 219 C C+ C F
0.538 Cotchery Jerricho 2004 NC State 6 1.0 212 C- C A+ C
0.537 Williams Stephen 2010 Toledo 6 4.5 210 C B A- C-
0.534 Decker Eric 2010 Minnesota 6 3.1 217 B- C B- B-
0.525 Jarrett Dewayne 2007 USC 6 3.0 215 C C+ D+ B-
0.495 Easley Marcus 2010 Connecticut 6 2.8 210 D- A+ C+ C+
0.491 White Blair 2010 Michigan State 6 2.3 209 C B- A+ C+
0.471 Cooper Riley 2010 Florida 6 3.4 222 C C INC C
0.440 Foster Brooks 2009 UNC 6 0.4 211 C B INC F-
0.437 Arrington Adrian 2008 Michigan 6 2.9 203 B- C INC C+
0.429 Kent Jordan 2007 Oregon 6 4.1 217 C C INC C+
0.429 Clayton Michael 2004 LSU 6 3.0 209 B D- A+ C+
0.429 Williams Mike 2005 USC 6 4.6 229 B C B- B
0.418 LaFell Brandon 2010 LSU 6 2.5 211 C- D B C-
0.411 Turner Patrick 2009 USC 6 5.1 223 D+ C B D-
0.399 Edison Dominique 2009 SF Austin 6 2.1 204 F B C C+
0.398 Stovall Maurice 2006 Notre Dame 6 4.8 217 C C B+ C
0.390 Rice Sidney 2007 South Carolina 6 3.5 200 B- B- C B+
0.389 Gibson Brandon 2009 Washington St 6 0.3 206 C C C+ C
0.316 Gettis David 2010 Rice 6 3.0 217 C- C+ B- C-
0.312 Iglesias Juaquin 2009 Oklahoma 6 0.8 210 C C D D
0.310 Franklin Will 2008 Missouri 6 1.0 214 D- A+ INC D
0.290 Mitchell Marko 2009 Nevada 6 3.5 218 B+ B+ C B+
0.248 Boldin Anquan 2003 Florida State 6 1.0 216 B D- D- B
0.223 Orr Jonathan 2006 Wisconsin 6 2.0 198 C B- C- B-
0.201 Aromashodu Devin 2006 Auburn 6 2.5 201 F B+ C+ F+
0.182 Thomas Devin 2008 Michigan State 6 1.8 216 B A- C- D+
0.158 Meier Kerry 2010 Kansas 6 2.0 220 B D+ B- C+
0.127 Kelly Aaron 2010 Clemson 6 4.4 204 C B D C-
0.099 Means Andrew 2009 Indiana 6 0.5 214 C- B- B+ F
0.085 Purify Maurice 2008 Nebraska 6 3.0 224 D C+ B D
0.077 Johnson Taurus 2009 S. Florida 6 0.4 206 D- B D- C+
0.051 Johnson Steven 2008 Kentucky 6 2.0 210 C C C D-
0.030 Kelly Malcolm 2009 Oklahoma 6 4.0 224 D+ D- C D-
-0.010 Henry Marcus 2008 Kansas 6 3.6 207 F C C C-
-0.050 Murphy Louis 2009 Florida 6 2.3 203 D- B B- D
-0.090 Briscoe Dezmon 2010 Kansas 6 2.0 207 C D D- B-
-0.144 Williams Jaison 2009 Oregon 6 4.1 237 D- D F D
-0.216 Ajirotutu Seyi 2010 Fresno St 6 4.0 204 C C+ D C-
-0.232 Sweed Limas 2008 Texas 6 3.8 215 F B- C F
-0.239 Doucet Early 2008 LSU 6 0.0 209 D C F F+
-0.361 Mix Anthony 2006 Auburn 6 4.0 235 D- C D- F

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Yeah... not a fan of first round WRs.

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by Brian Levenson on Jan 17, 2012 7:47 AM EST reply actions  

Oops. I am.

In my defense, they’re both based off the same link.

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by Brian Levenson on Jan 17, 2012 8:13 AM EST up reply actions  

No Dillard?

I don’t like it.

by kjones407 on Jan 17, 2012 8:02 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

My take on Dillard...

is that he is the ideal possession receiver. You need 7 and he’ll get you 8. I also think he runs really sharp routes, has usually dependable hands and has the leaping ability you desire in a wideout. Something just tells me he can be really productive if put in the position to do so.

by kjones407 on Jan 19, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

You lost me...

You lost me with “I’d keep Shorts (KR”.

I’m sure your post is insightful and well written, but did you watch Shorts on special teams? HORRIBLE. I like him as a receiver, but I’d never let him step foot on the field for a punt or kickoff ever.

by Sourwine on Jan 17, 2012 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

Even though it makes no sense considering the money they threw at him last year

I’d be tempted to keep M80 as the return specialist and have him as option 3. I would not at all be shocked if Osgood goes elsewhere. Not having the contract numbers in front of me, is he too expensive to keep as a special teams ace and for spot goal line plays or 3rd and short? You can only do that with so many guys.

Keep Shorts, let Dillard, West, Robiskie, and Price slug it out for 2 spots.

I vehemently oppose Shorts returning kick or punts. He was awful at it and I feel it stunted his development at the WR spot. We can say he’ll be the next Victor Cruz or Garcon, but we simply don’t know that Gabbert will instantly transform into either Manning overnight either.

I think the Jags are going to go after 2 free agents, thus making any talk of Blackmon or Jeffrey or Floyd meaningless.

My ideal receiving corps (assuming we keep 6) is this:

Dwayne Bowe
Stevie Johnson ( I can be sold on DeSean Jackson too)
Mike Thomas
Cecil Shorts
Jarrett Dillard
Chastin West

**I really like Osgood, but he’s essentially a one trick pony who thinks he can provide more consistently. If we go 7 receivers I can see him sticking, but guys like Price and Robiskie, I think all the talent has already been squeezed out of them.

  • Draft Ryan Broyles late (5th or later) with expectation that he will likely not play this year.

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by Joe Fisher on Jan 17, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

On what planet

is MSW a top 15 WR in the NFL ?

by pksiv on Jan 17, 2012 9:55 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

+1000

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Jan 19, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Hold on a second

Did I see names in this list such as Javon Walker, Randy Moss, Charles Rogers, Hank Baskett and Troy Williamson?

Next. I appreciate the work you put in with the graph, but there are quite a few NAMES that have not really done much. Not to mention these are FANTASY numbers. There are SO many other variables that come into play than fantasy stats. I am a firm believer that sabermetrics can work to an extent in the NFL, but in a league with a salary cap and floor, there are so many other factors that must come into play when gauging productivity.

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You can browse the blog, but you can't participate.

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by Joe Fisher on Jan 17, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

Realistically

Most of the guys who are at the upper end of this list will be re-signed by their current teams, unless the team has cap issues, or they have some other issues (age, injury history, off the field issues, etc).

For the guys that are actually available, the Jaguars will be in a bidding war against other teams. We’re in good shape as far as having money to spend, so I can definitely see us going after an upper tier guy, but we probably won’t get 2 of them. I can see us signing 1 long term free agent WR, and another that will be better than what we have, but is a number 2, or on the downside of their career, etc. We’ll most likely be drafting at least 1 WR also, but signing a couple of productive WRs in FA ensures that whoever we draft will have time to develop before the fans are expecting to see production out of them.

I know it’s off-topic, but we’ll probably lose one of our defensive FAs also, since most guys only came in one a 1 year contract, and they’ll be looking to turn their performance from last year into a payday.

by mab0270 on Jan 17, 2012 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

Dont keep anf of them!

But since thats unlikely… The only ones that should be considered are price and dillard. And dillard is real iffy. M80 dont care cause he got paid. Shorts is another gene bust. Msw is not consistent the rest dony have levit nfl ability.

by caneman4 on Jan 17, 2012 10:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Shorts is another gene bust

Pretty nice of you to give Shorts so much time to get proper coaching and show what he can do in the NFL. People like you should find themselves working in a team’s front office somewhere because you are not rash and would make decisions based on a lot of information and not a small sample of data that is not even so great to use in the first place.

"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi

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by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 17, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Shorts proved a couple things

He proved he can catch tough passes and might be a red zone threat in the future. He also looked to be physically capable of playing at this level. Its hard for rookies to hook up a lot in year one especially when Shorts was injured a lot. A 4th round pick is rarely a bust.

by childintime12 on Jan 17, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

4th round busts...

happen more than you might believe. We have a 3rd round WR in Taylor Price that was drafted by the Patriots and a 2nd round WR in Brian Robiskie drafted by the Browns on our team now. It’s not rare for players from any round to be a bust actually.

by kjones407 on Jan 17, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the point is that you cannot be a bust if you are a 4th round pick. A"bust" implies a big risk (money/high draft pick) was taken on the player and they did not end up being anywhere near worth the risk. If a 4th rounder turns out to be just OK or out of the NFL, it is not a big loss, and therefore not a “bust”.

"The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is." Winston Churchill

by Conservative on Jan 18, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't get that...

because I’ve seen people here call picks from every round a bust.

by kjones407 on Jan 18, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Me too

But i agree that anyone outside of the top 100 shouldnt be considered a bust. Unless they are a kicker/punter/fullback.

by Mr.Awesome on Jan 19, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe with experience`

Blaine Gabbert can play with the WR we have. I think only 1 should be added to the roster. I like the current guys but none of them are number 1 guys and thats a problem. We do need someone to stretch the field and that can run under Gabberts deep ball.

by childintime12 on Jan 17, 2012 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

I'm probably...

the only one here that is going to agree with you on this.

by kjones407 on Jan 17, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with the concept, but I am too afraid that the 1 WR we add will just end up on IR, and we will be right back where we started.

"The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is." Winston Churchill

by Conservative on Jan 18, 2012 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm fine with drafting one guy and signing one mid-level FA

Let’s say… Brian Quick and Robert Meachem or something like that.

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by Brian Levenson on Jan 17, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

I could get on board with that.

I would prefer going Jeffery and then signing a guy like Meachem but either way I like the idea.

……And then getting rid of Mike Thomas.

by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 19, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

i want..

Either Colston, V Jax, or Bowe.

plus

either Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, or reggie wayne.

plus

dwight jones, marvin mcnutt, or kendall wright in the 2nd round.

by bdk790 on Jan 17, 2012 1:42 PM EST reply actions  

According to Mocking the Draft

Kendall Wright is probably going to be a first rounder.

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by mob16151 on Jan 17, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Here is what the Jaguars should do at the WR position

FA: Harry Douglas, Bowe/V-Jax/Johnson(whichever can be had easiest -likely johnson)
Keep: Shorts, Dillard
Draft: tough to say since early guys might go earlier than I even think, but I would say to try and get WRs in the 2nd/3rd and the 5th/6th. TY Hilton, Jordan White, Jairus Wright, Marvin McNutt, Dwight Jones, Marquis Maze are some of the more likely guys I envision as being drafted by the Jags.
Trade: Thomas(whatever he fetches in a deal is likely going to be worth more to the Jags than he is. He likely could fetch about a 4th rounder IMO)

Envisioned WR group:
Stevie Johnson
Jordan White
Harry Douglas
Dillard
Shorts
Marquis Maze(bottom of the depth chart, but could turn out to be a dynamic ST player as a return man)

"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi

Twitter: @JWGreenbaum

by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 17, 2012 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

I doubt M80...

goes anywhere this offseason. He, more than likely, will be a Jaguar next season.

by kjones407 on Jan 17, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

well

he shouldn’t be!!

"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi

Twitter: @JWGreenbaum

by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 17, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

You Slvrgun really can’t stand Thomas.

by kjones407 on Jan 17, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the guy

but I feel like with all the improvements likely to come to this group of wide receivers, Thomas is the odd man out and probably nets the most(over Shorts and Dillard) in a potential deal

"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi

Twitter: @JWGreenbaum

by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 17, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

He would. I wouldn’t oppose Gene trading him as long as he gets what he spent on him, a fourth round pick and someone equally or more talented replaces him. If those requirements were met, I’d welcome it because I didn’t like his body language most of last season towards Gabbert. I just figured he’d get it turned around.

by kjones407 on Jan 18, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Can you explain to me

What Mike Thomas was saying/doing to Gabbert? I’ve been seeing this everywhere.

by TaylorChase on Jan 19, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The drops...

and the route running, I’ll give him a pass on. Even the best receivers will have some drops and from what I’m getting is that the receivers regressed as a group, which appears to be from the poor coaching they were getting. Which is why I’ll partially overlook the poor route running also. But the aligator arms and giving up on routes is utterly unacceptable. Aligator arms shows he wasn’t giving it his all and the giving up on routes shows he didn’t trust Gabbert enough to get him the ball. While sometimes his lack of belief in Gabbert was warranted, that’s no excuse to still not give it your all after you were just rewarded with a new contract.

by kjones407 on Jan 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Ur right

Im only expecting two new faces three max.

by caneman4 on Jan 17, 2012 8:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I’m fine with 2 new faces, but those faces better be a part of a body with some serious talent. Jags need a threat…defenses were laughing at us last year.

by jagzman04 on Jan 18, 2012 8:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...

until we handed Jones-Drew the ball.

by kjones407 on Jan 18, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Mike Thomas is terrible in the slot.

Does the slot suddenly empower him to be a better WR. This guy is garbage.

by Slvrgun on Jan 19, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

The theory of...

Signing either Colston, Jackson or Bowe and then drafting 2 from the Wright/Sanu/Toon/Quick/Dwight Jones group is probably the best thing that could possibly happen to our receiving core. Honestly, having Colston, Wright and Dwight Jones plus what we have now could make our receiving core a Top-10 unit. Assuming none are busts…

by Adam Bealyer on Jan 19, 2012 12:24 PM EST reply actions  

Mike Thomas should be better

once he is no longer the main threat in the passing game. Also Im not against Desean Jackson coming. That dude is exciting.

by JagSoldier on Jan 19, 2012 12:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

How so?

He faces one on one matches against linebackers and nicklebacks and can’t win man to man. He sucks, point blank.

by Slvrgun on Jan 19, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I say

WR1: Colston/Bowe
WR2: Jeffery/Wright/Blackmon if he falls.
WR3: Garcon/Douglas
WR4: Price/Robiskie
WR5: Dillard/West

by Slvrgun on Jan 19, 2012 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

I can do that...

But I might contemplate putting Meachem in that one spot rather than Colston or Bowe.

WR1: Robert Meachem
WR2: Kendall Wright
WR3: Pierre Garcon
WR4: Jarett Dillard
WR5: Mike Thomas
WR6: Cecil Shorts III

I know this is 6 WR’s but I could see us keeping 6.

by aibtureman on Jan 19, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

My Top 2 WR's are Colston and Jackson

And I think either Reggie Wayne could definitely be signed on a shorter contract to be our #2, or I wouldn’t discount the fact that Harry Douglas could end up here with Murlarkey’s ties to ATL, but I dont know much about him except hes very quick, but other than that I’m clueless, could he be a solid #2 WR?

by Jags85 on Jan 19, 2012 1:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

If it becomes an option

I’d love for us to trade down into the teens and get Kendall Wright then two of Dwight Jones/Sanu/Brian Quick/Marvin Mcnutt in the second round. I’m always scared of signing big name WRs in free agency, they seem to suck at their new teem more often than not. That group I said could give Gabbert some legitimate weapons and he could grow with them. Unfortunately, trading down is almost never an option.

by TaylorChase on Jan 19, 2012 1:28 PM EST reply actions  

Kendall Wright would help tremendously!

I’ve seen a lot of Baylor’s games and Wright could work wonders for us as a deep threat (he has that Mike Wallece element)and a run after the catch type WR. Tony Pauline brought up some interesting about Wright and that’s that “a lot” of teams had Wright as the #1 WR on there board. It would be crazy if we grabbed him at #7 if that’s the case I’d be cool with that. Get a nice sized WR to compliment him in FA like Bowe, or Colston an we are good. Also Sanu,Mcnutt,or Jones wouldn’t be bad pickups either if we grabbed one of them instead.

by J.James29 on Jan 19, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Wow....

Kendall Wright looks impressive. Could he be BAP?

by Slvrgun on Jan 19, 2012 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

At #7?

or in the 2nd (even though I Highly doubt he would be)?

by Jags85 on Jan 19, 2012 6:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I didn't know...

Chast West had that kind of size. He doesn’t look that big on the field.

by kjones407 on Jan 19, 2012 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

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