A Bunch of Mock Drafts
by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 22, 2012 11:57 AM EST
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I decided to throw out a couple of mock scenarios and get the opinion of you guys on which you would most prefer and/or which you think is most likely to occur should it turn out to be one of these scenarios.
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MOCK A |
MOCK B |
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1ST |
Whitney Mercilus DE |
Jonathan Martin OT |
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2ND |
Zebrie Sanders OT |
Brian Quick WR |
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3RD |
Josh Norman CB |
Cam Johnson DE |
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4TH |
Jarius Wright WR |
Donnie Fletcher CB |
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5TH |
Quentin Saulsberry C |
Joe Adams WR |
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6TH |
Rishard Matthews WR |
Tyler Nielsen OLB |
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MOCK C |
MOCK D |
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1ST |
Alshon Jeffery WR |
Dre Kirkpatrick CB |
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2ND |
Stephon Gilmore CB |
Vinny Curry DE |
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3RD |
Nate Potter OT |
T.Y. Hilton WR |
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4TH |
A.J. Jenkins WR |
Tony Bergstrom OT |
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5TH |
Jake Bequette DE |
Nigel Bradham OLB |
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6TH |
Phillip Blake C |
B.J. Cunningham WR |
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Short and sweet
I like it. Interesting variety too
B.A.P.
by moves_like_jaguars on Jan 22, 2012 12:19 PM EST reply actions
I like B
but waiting until later to draft a CB, when we may need one badly, is bad. So i went the safe route and went D.
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Kirkpatrick...
will almost certainly not be a Jaguar with that little stunt he pulled not too long ago.
The Jags don't need a CB badly
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 22, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
do they need one? yes
badly? not so sure.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Yes we do
Suppose we have one injury to Derek Cox, who btw will be a FA soon. We will be dying all season for a CB. And trust me, we’ll have a lot more games like we had against the Chargers. And frankly, we wont have the offense to make up for that kind of defensive performance.
that is poor logic
it can essentially allow me to make an argument for massive need at all positions. and it works the least for a position like CB where there are pretty solid options. I figure Mathis gets resigned so then you have middleton and mathis and coleman should cox get hurt and that is not a bad trio IF an injury occurred.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
First Coleman
cannot be relied upon outside. He simply has no speed. Mathis might not even be able to play to start the year, and if he were he wouldn’t be 100%.
Frankly, every year we lose CB’s to injury. By that thought process we’re gonna be looking on the street for players again.
fine
i still am not sure you can classify it as needing to draft a CB “badly”
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
wrong
it is a need, not a huge one. If it is a huge need then QB is an even huger need because if Gabbert gets hurt who plays then?! TE is also a gigantic need since if Marcedes gets hurt who plays TE?!! and let us not forget MLB since if Poz gets hurt there is no real serviceable option to back him up.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Obviously the QB position
is a different animal. Generally speaking, you’re screwed if your starting QB goes down. We could by at TE if Lewis down. It would be a blow obviously, but it doesn’t have to be a featured position. As for Poz, I think we have some nice depth at LB. There would be a drop off, no doubt; but we are so thin at CB that if one went down, it would be like the drop off from Dwight Freeney to Jerry Hughes.
You can twist what I say all you want, but it doesn’t take a genius to realize we need more at the position of CB. Do you remember how bad our defense looked against the Falcons and Chargers? That’s basically our defense from 2010. And frankly, I’m not gonna be satisfied with that kind of defense.
we ended up with the 8th ranked pass defense
with all the injuries to the secondary last year.
corner is not a big need
Cold Blooded
by Jaggaholic82 on Jan 23, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
To add to that..
Some of those guys that were picked up played pretty well especially considering that they were “off the street” and were not at all familar with the system. That forced them to play a lot of base coverages that talent WRs will beat all day. I expect a few of them to be brought back next year, so like you said, corner is not a big need
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 23, 2012 2:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We ended up with the
8th best pass defense, but down the stretch we starting giving up 262 yards per game passing, which would have been the third worst in the league!
Do you think this team could get even 5 wins with that kind of defense all season?
And frankly, I think it could get even worse if Derek goes down early next season, keep in mind, he’s coming off an injury. And not to mention, Williams MIddleton is a FA coming off an injury. And Mathis is old, coming off an injury, and a FA. And we don’t even know if any of them will be healthy to start the year. And the backups that performed admirably last season didn’t have a whole season’s worth of film to expose them.
Mathis is in his 30's coming of a knee injury
Finding a replacement for him is most definitely a need.
Its a need
But not big need, Middleton played just as well in that starting role before his injury.
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 23, 2012 2:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
In response to all of the above on a "major need" at CB
Here’s my logic. If we move from 6th to say, 13th in defense because of an injury situation or lack of depth a CB, then we could still make the playoffs. The Patriots follow a long line of superbowl contenders with a bad or incomplete defense. I can’t think of a single team that can’t use more help or a new starter somewhere on defense. Fortunately, we’ve got some good safeties, some interesting depth guys and Will Middleton who will not be great, but good enough.
However, if some help at O-Line and WR bring our offense from last to say, 18-20, that is a big boost to our chances (and Blaine Gabberts play would slide this scale up or down).
In other words, the loss of strength at a position on defense is not as detrimental to our chances as the lack of improvement to a position on offense. We need about 5 guys on offense to make a difference which is going to take most of our FA spendings and high draft picks.
I would love to get say, Stephon Gilmore and wouldn’t be dissatisfied with the pick one bit. If we’re talking what our biggest needs are, I put CB 5th: WR, RT, WR, G/C, CB, DE, KR, WR, P, OLB
I think DE is quite low on your list
I think a good DE would be really great to get and is something this team really could use.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
A DE would be a luxury
For a defense that was 6th in spite of losing a starting DE’s and 3 backups (morgan, lane, chick). If we have what we had last year, we will be OK. We only need one piece on our dline – a consistent pass rushing DE. We will get by without one.
Note: The is under the assumption that we get everyone back. Opinion can change depending on how the roster looks come draft time.
I agree
and I think Gilmore would be a good pick up as well. Josh Norman and Keith Tandy look like interesting options to me too.
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 23, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
Funny thing
I think A is most likely
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
B is probably most likely and followed by A/C
If Mercilus blows up A is alot more likely. Like the concept BTW
SCALP'EM
Jesus is Lord!
by Thunder64 on Jan 22, 2012 10:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I saw a DE in the first round in A...
…so I knew it wasn’t going to be that one.
D would be my favorite, but probably B is more likely.
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are you sayin that if Gene has a DE as BAP
he will not go BAP? Mercilus could find his way to the top portion of Gene’s(any others’) big boards
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Not if there's a guy he grades equally of a greater need
I honestly don’t see any pass rush at the top of the draft. We have no need for another DE, unless he is a pass rusher.
Mercilus is just that
he was an insane pass rusher this year. He could find his way up.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
I like C
With the exception of Jeffrey, I think 7 is reaching for him. My IDEAL draft would probably be:
1st: Riley Reiff RT Iowa
2nd: Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
3rd: Marvin McNutt/Brian Quick WR
4th: Jarius Wright WR Arkansas
5th: Jake Bequette DE Arkansas
6th: Hakeim Hicks DT Regina
I wouldn't say this is my dream mock
but I think this one would be nice:
1. Trade down and get WR Alshon Jeffery(I didn’t want to speculate on what the picks were going to be)
2. DE Nick Perry
3. CB/FS Trumaine Johnson
4. CB Josh Robinson
5. C/OG Michael Bewster
6. WR/PR Devon Wylie
7. WR Gerrell Robinson
UDFA’s: WR Thomas Mayo, QB Dominique Davis, WR Rod Streater(Temple), TE David Paulson
I know I have a lot of receivers in here, but it has a little to with my focus so far this non-playing season. And some of it has to do with my disappointment in this draft as a whole.
Perry is not going to be there in round 2
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
also, Brewster in the 5th?!
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 23, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
It's not really round
It’s number on the list. If there’s a lot of depth they’ll fall, or if they’re further down the list. If they’re the second or third best at position, it’s not so likely they’ll fall.
Let's look at some past examples
2010 Draft Matt Tennant from BC fell to the 5th and he was the third center and Walton went in the third and the only other C was Pouncey in the first.
2011 Draft Wisniewski went in the 2nd and then the next center went in the 6th
I'm sure I can find examples to support any angle I take
But there are too many variables to account for. How many C needy teams were there? Was the class, before the draft, thought to be a good or a bad class? Was there a really good class of Guards that could potentially play either position that went 2-4 (prime guard pickin’ time). What if the only teams that wanted a C expect Pouncey to fall? I mean I could go on and on.
If a team needs a Center and the top guy or two is taken but the next guy looks good – maybe even good enough to be the top guy a year later, I don’t think they let him fall to the 5th round before they take him.
I’m not usually a guy who tells people where they should mock, even though people went wild when I mocked Mcnutt to the third round, but it’s a methodology. The top guy available at a position is never safe, even if it is a center.
Also,
What if those were just bad drafts for centers? Maybe that’s why we didn’t get one even though Meester didn’t look so great in 2009. How many starters at Center came from those drafts?
Well
its hard to tell who is or isn’t going to be a starter being the position takes a while to develop, but even out of the 2010 draft, half of them became starters, which is a really high rate for most any position and all of them are on a team.
In the 09 draft, most all of them are starting and the ones that aren’t are 7th rounders.
2011 draft: 1 went on IR before the season, 4 were starters, and one was a small school player drafted in the 6th to sit behind an established starter
If what you say is true
Then maybe you’re right. Maybe the position goes untouched for a couple of rounds. Maybe it’s because teams only carry 1-2 per team. I still have a hard time seeing Brewster fall further than the 3rd, but I wont call it impossible. Think the biggest question left is, how many teams need a Center?
Um.... why bring in Davis?
As a ECU fan I can tell you he has some pretty awful footwork and bad decision making.
Stares down WR’s and forces the ball to them.
And although he is athletic he doesn’t really use it that much and often looks like a deer caught in the headlights to rushers in the pocket.
And then there is the entire system QB stuff in a shotgun air raid scheme.
Sure he holds the NCAA single game record holder for most consecutive completions with 26 for 26 in the first half vs Navy last season but it involved a massive amount of luck and playcalling and some great WR play.
I like to fish. I run the option. Crazy. Southeastern college football enthusiast. Heavy metal and Johnny Cash aficionado.
"But kind and gentle."
by RjTheMetalhead on Jan 23, 2012 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
I like Davis because
he’s a lot like Gabbert, and I think both could benefit from hearing things twice. And sometimes you can’t see your flaws until you see them in someone else. And as UDFA and practice squad/third string QB, he can help simulate Gabbert in practice so that the OL and WR’s can further get chemistry with Gabbert.(Confusing thought process I know. But the bottom line, is that everyone could benefit from Davis being on the team)
It might be wishful thinking
But I’m hoping we’re not going to have any room for any UDFA WRs to take playing time away from our new starters and new/old depth guys.
I think you got to bring in UDFAS regardless
for all you know a UDFA you bring in can totally outshine the guys your draft. The cost of a UDFA is well worth the potential upside of finding a gem hidden in the UDFA pool.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
+1
And not to mention, you can stash them on your practice squad. And not to mention, you want to develop guys and keep them away from other rosters.
I didn't say I don't want to sign them
I said I want guys good enough that essentially, they’ll have to be put on the P.S. I can see how “have any room” might have give you that idea, though.
I’m all for the team continuing how they do with UDFAs. I’d much rather be reminded that’s who they are after they’re already playing well then over analyze and over hype in hopes that they might turn shit into gold though. Basically, I’d like to get that to that point where I stop caring which UDFA WRs we sign until one of them actually does something.
they would love draft d
But it wont happen. Id like to take a close look at Jonathon Martin. He may be the guy we need at RT. WR look to be a good crop. A speedy guy would be needed mid to late rounds and playmaker in 1st two rounds
Courtney upshaw
Looks like he could be the pick DE
he is not a DE
and from what I understand has never played DE. explain why he is the pick to play DE?!!
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 22, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
He played both LB and DE at Alabama
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 23, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
still not sure I am all that big of a fan
of taking a guy who is an ideal rush LB for the 3-4 and taking him at 7 hoping he is an effective 4-3 DE
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Seems like
Some guys play better standing, some 3 point. Some have the body for the 4-3, other 3-4. I can’t think of many examples where a guy can play both, well.
Though it’s incredibly improbably and probably not even beneficial…some food for thought:
Upshaw, Smith, Poz, Sessions/Coleman
Alualu, Knighton, Mincey
Mel Tucker is a 3-4 guy…
GET THE 3-4 OUT OF YOU MIND
Poz came to play in a 4-3. Jags have built themselves to play a 4-3 and were quite successful doing it this year. A move to a 3-4 is not happening at this point. Plain and simple!!!
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Chill out man Chill
I know. “and not even beneficial”
It’s okay to have topics “just for the hell of it.”
What else do we have to talk about until draft
Sheesh, lol
it is not even a topic of discussion
it is not even worth pondering or discussing since it has no chance of happening. let us at least spend time thinking about possible scenarios.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
It's funny that you think I'm the on not being realistic
While you’re convinced we can actually ponder “possible scenarios”. lol.
There’s a big difference between wish/dream/bestcase/ideal/whatiwant scenarios and possible scenarios.
Bama plays
both a 4-3 and a 3-4 really so he has experience playing both LB and DE. Honestly, these are draft picks, your just hoping they are all effective.
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 23, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
Like rounds 3-6 from C
And Kirk being 1 with a WR 2
SCALP'EM
Jesus is Lord!
by Thunder64 on Jan 22, 2012 10:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I know maybe not a solid Mock draft by me but what i seel available on the board for the jags
K here is my mock draft for the jaguars.
1) Alshon Jeffery WR South carolina
2) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
3) Marvin Mcnutt WR Iowa
5) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
6) Kirk cousins QB Michigan state
7) CB Brandon Boykin Georgia
by jaguarsfan3030 on Jan 22, 2012 10:28 PM EST reply actions
couple of problems with this
Jeffery prob a tiny bit high Adams too high as well McNutt too low and JOnes way too low and COusins a bit low and Boykin could be there. As a whole a VERY unrealistic mock
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 22, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Well thats why its a mock lol But i do believe Marvin Mcnutt will be their for the jags with 2nd round or 3rd round and Chandler helps u upgrade
by jaguarsfan3030 on Jan 22, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Adams too high?
Huh? Guy might be the best pass blocker in the class. Can’t block the run worth a damn but with a little weight and strength training he could be better than Martin at everything Martin is good at by the time 2013 rolls around.
I have spoken to Buckeyes fans
they say he is good but not worth much more than a mid second rounder.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
He's a fringe 1st to 2nd rounder, similiar to what Britton's projection was
Pre-combine, mind you, but taking him in the second wouldn’t be “too-high”. It could actually prove to be too-low. For now, I say it’s about-right with a touch of maybe.
changing mock to this?
K then how about this as my updated Mock:
1) Alshon Jeffery WR South carolina
2) Marvin Mcnutt WR Iowa
3) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
4) Ty Hilton WR Florida international
5) Casey Hayward CB Vanderbilt
6) Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin
7) Ryan Miller OT Colorado
by jaguarsfan3030 on Jan 22, 2012 10:56 PM EST reply actions
Unlikely that we take WR the first two rounds. Probably a CB in the 2nd in that scenario.
SCALP'EM
Jesus is Lord!
BAP is BAP
Gene doubled up on OT when it was need so why not in this case?
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Gene doubled up on OT's because we needed to OT and because they met the value
Love Vic but I think he overstated the BAP issue. For my beliefs on the strategies we use, reference here.
That being said, outside of the first round and not including special teams players, I don’t think it’s right to say we will or wont get a positional need.
I’m a firm believer in not getting a guy in the 1st round that wont make an impact on your team or isn’t of some need. With good management, I think any given team can draft a player of both need and value without reaching in the first round. The exception is if you think a player is very elite (such as the lions and Nick Fairley).
will or won't get a specific position based on whatever round*
In other words, things like this “wont take a WR in first two rounds….cb in the 2nd.”
You draft players, not positions.
"You draft players, not positions."
I love this statement. Now if only we could get the rest of the people who make mock drafts to understand that, they’d have a much higher probability of being accurate. That’s why I like this idea much more than just giving one mock draft because it leaves room for flexibility. Chances are, something mixed between the four above stand the chance of happening, more so than just one of them.
Completely agree
Thumbs up to JagsRok on that, no matter how unrealistic I think they may be…
Just kidding ;)
That being said
I’ll continue to make individual mocks because I like making “concept drafts” if you will. I don’t believe it will happen, but it’s my current favorite idea at the time.
I could get on board with this..
Although, I wouldnt spend a 6th rounder on Russel Wilson and the Jags do not have a 7th round pick this year.
by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 25, 2012 7:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
So is it the 6th or the 7th that we don't have?
Everytime I start believing one way, someone says it’s the other.
Lowery was had for a conditional late round pick
not sure there is any indication of it being more than a 7th.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
Just wish they'd come right out and say it.
Somebody has to know what the conditions are. I’ve seen 6th, 7th, and 6th AND 7th. The only reason it matters to me is because I’d like to draft Powell from FSU, and since our late picks are usually throw away project guys anyways we might as well get the best punter coming in.
Powell from FSU…t the best punter coming in
I am not sure about that anymore. Some other punters have caught my eye as of late.
"The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price." -Vince Lombardi
Twitter: @JWGreenbaum
by Jagsrok9008 on Jan 25, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
The guy from CAL
is a good example. I’m waiting for the UCLA coming out next year. He does kick offs, has a good average with good hang time, and he’s left footed, he’s even done some field goal kicking.
Interesting
I don’t really know that punters go up or down in value during the offseason, but I don’t really put a lot of time into them. Last I read, Powell was the top guy so I never really followed up. About how many top level punters are coming out?
C
I like to fish. I run the option. Crazy. Southeastern college football enthusiast. Heavy metal and Johnny Cash aficionado.
"But kind and gentle."
by RjTheMetalhead on Jan 23, 2012 10:24 AM EST reply actions
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