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2012 NFL Free Agency: Odds of Peyton Manning with the Jaguars

The era of Peyton Manning dominating in Indianapolis is over. Make no mistake, he will not be on the Colts next year and he will be playing football elsewhere. Any scenario otherwise is pretty unrealistic at this point, especially with a $28 million bonus due to Manning on March 8 that will give the Colts no choice but to release the future Hall of Famer.

The Jaguars in 2011 had the NFL's leading rusher and the 6th ranked defense, but had an utterly inept passing offense. I'll preface by saying that I feel Blaine Gabbert didn't get a fair shake at success with a cast of characters that would've been difficult for anyone to succeed with.

However, if Manning were to come back and play at even 80% of the level where he's been at for the last decade, he will make any team a Super Bowl contender instantly. The Jaguars included.

Star-divide

I feel dirty saying it after rooting so much against Manning for so long and watching him tear apart the Jaguars and consistently put the AFC South out of reach, yet for those same reasons I know the value of the player he is, or at least was.

Manning made a subpar surrounding cast look like a playoff-quality team year in and year out, and when he went down with a neck injury his impact was instantly visible. With the Jaguars he wouldn't exactly be getting the greatest supporting cast, at least not on his signing day. The Jaguars have the defense to help him, a dynamic running back to help him and within weeks of his signing can have a receiving corps that is up to his standard of play.

I'll be honest, all of this seems very unrealistic even as I write it. While it's hard to find a whole lot of reasons not to like the potential move to sign Manning (with the only obvious negative being his injury), the move just doesn't seem like a move that would be typical of the Jaguars.

Yet that's exactly why I almost feel like there could be a chance. This isn't the same organization we have all watched through the years. When Shahid Khan took over he immediately made it clear that he wants to spend the money necessary to win and build a passing offense that can compete in today's NFL.

I don't like the notion that Wayne Weaver was "cheap" or refused to spend money, the philosophies of the Jaguars front office seem to have changed recently. With new general manager Gene Smith, Vic Ketchman lauded that Smith was going to do things the right way with BAP drafting and little emphasis on free agency. Smith promptly did the opposite.

I will believe that Gene Smith is a BAP drafter the day that his draft picks don't magically happen to align perfectly with the needs of the team. I'll believe that he isn't going to focus too much on free agency when he doesn't have an offseason that includes big free agent signings like Matt Roth, Clint Session, Paul Posluszny, Drew Coleman, Dawan Landry, Aaron Kampman, Kassim Osgood, Torry Holt or Tra Thomas.

These aren't the same Jaguars that would instantly shy away from a big move, in fact, early indications seem to show that they revel in it.

There's little doubt that if Peyton Manning recovers from his injury and even approaches the form that was his former self, that he will be an upgrade over at least two-thirds of the NFL's quarterbacks. So why not the Jaguars?

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I have 2 reasons why he will not be a Jaguars

1. I think he will not pull a ‘Brett Favre’ and choose to play for a (hated) divisional rival. I think Peyton has more class! (Make no mistake, he will decide, where he want to go).

2. I think the Dolhins, Redskins or even the Jets will make a move to grab him. Washington would make a lot of sense for example.

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

Follow me on twitter @iktriad

by Zoltan from Budapest on Jan 27, 2012 8:45 PM EST reply actions  

1) I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he wanted to get back at the franchise that dumped him after all he did for them.

2) Yes, I imagine some of those teams will go hard after him, but it’s not like those rosters are particularly that much closer to championship level than the Jags.

@troycarson

by uclatroy on Jan 27, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Why

Would he want to go to Washington?

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jan 28, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I will be glad when this Peyton Manning talk is over.

He’s 36 and had 3 neck surgeries in 18 months. I doubt he plays again.

Fidelis Ad Mortem

by JPQ! on Jan 27, 2012 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

It's a pleasant aside from Tebowmania.

I would take it as an insult if you didn't troll me on Twitter @JagsTom

by JagsTom on Jan 27, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean = I have 2 reasons why he will not be a Jaguar

Boy my English grammar suck lately. Maybe I should rest and not comment at almost 3 AM…

Life without knowledge is death in disguise

Follow me on twitter @iktriad

by Zoltan from Budapest on Jan 27, 2012 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

Go give those Budapest women something to talk about, Z-man!
Remember though… If you’re gonna attack her, wrap your whacker.

Sean

Pax Armis Acquiritur

by cuffs007 on Jan 27, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

zoltan i forgot to tell you

i was in budapest in early october this year, very interesting city. went to the thermal baths

by UCLAllDay on Jan 28, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

RIP

I have begun writing the obituary to the 2012 Denver Broncos defense. May you fly high with the blocking sleds in the sky!

I would take it as an insult if you didn't troll me on Twitter @JagsTom

by JagsTom on Jan 27, 2012 8:51 PM EST reply actions  

I think JDR will do well there.

He was a good defensive mind in his previous stops, and the talent is there in Denver.
Good luck, JDR!

Fidelis Ad Mortem

by JPQ! on Jan 27, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with you.

We’ll see if this stop in Denver will be as good as his stop in Carolina. He might fall into that line of failed coaches turn great coordinators. Or not. Time will tell.

But for the moment, RIP Denver.

I would take it as an insult if you didn't troll me on Twitter @JagsTom

by JagsTom on Jan 27, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Denver has

a ton of defensive talent. That’s his defense to ruin…and I don’t think he will.

by CheapSeat on Jan 28, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it doesn't happen but its a plausible scenario

A few reasons that this could work to the Jags’ advantage

1) Giving Blaine Gabbert time to work below Manning. Seems like Gabbert was thrown to the fire too early and wasn’t given any talent to work with apart from Lewis. Manning might have 2-3 good years depending on his health and it would give Gabbert plenty of time to learn under a future Hall of Famer.

2) Manning can make mediocre receivers good. He’s good at utilizing guys that wouldn’t normally stand out. Dallas Clark had 300 yards this year after having 1,000+ in 2009. The Jags still need good receivers, but having a guy like Manning will help young receivers develop.

3) Manning is a leader. I don’t really know the Jags scenario too well(I’m an Eagles fan) but apart from Maurice Jones-Drew I can’t really think of a vocal presence in the locker room. Gabbert surely didn’t have that in his first year. Those kinds of qualities can rub of on players, and Manning’s ultra-competitive attitude can work towards a winning attitude in the locker room.

4) He would be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Jim Irsay is a buffoon and seemingly shortchanged Manning in one of the worst ways possible. He completely disrespected Manning after he brought so much to the Colts for the past several years. I’m sure Manning would love to stick it to the Colts and Luck by making them remember that they made the wrong decision to not bring him back.

by postman856 on Jan 27, 2012 9:08 PM EST reply actions  

sigh

how well has Manning been a teacher to those QB’s on Indy’s depth chart?

Sean

Pax Armis Acquiritur

by cuffs007 on Jan 27, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Not very much but…. I’ve heard that Brett didn’t teach A. Rogers much, u gotta watch & learn….if u got IT, u got IT.

by orecic76 on Jan 28, 2012 4:05 AM EST via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

If this was last offseason

I would say they should consider it, just like the Titans did bringing in Hasselback when they knew Locker wasn’t quite ready to start. But after having Gabbert start the majority of the season last year, I don’t think it helps the situation at all, he has seen about the worst it can be, just let him build on that and not worry about short term fixes.

by Sylvester.The.Jaguar.fan on Jan 27, 2012 10:24 PM EST reply actions  

concur

Sean

Pax Armis Acquiritur

by cuffs007 on Jan 27, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

thats what i was thinking

A couple days ago when you wrote your thing about Mario Williams, if he came he could do lots of things for us:

A) Signing him you can get receivers to come, especially if you can talk him down to a slightly lower contract, so you can get more people and so your not paying a guy who in one play could end the his career

B) He could mentor Gabbert, who isn’t as big a name as Luck and would add to Peyton’s legend if Gabbert takes over after he retires and leads us all the way

C) you get a shot to get back at Israel twice a year and show he should have kept him

D) We have a top passing offense and better a balanced attack, if you stack the box to stop MJD, Manning will tear you apart, if you put more corners in to contain Manning’s big plays MJD will run over you (something he hasn’t had the luxury of in a while)

E) More free agents come because we become a heavy favorite to win the AFC South and could possibly contend to make a super bowl run.
The hardest thing is to convince him, and others to take either a pay cut or only a little more than they make in their current homes (granted no state taxes in Florida helps you keep some of that money)

Its all very Improbable but not impossible, he could go to a lot of other places but not a lot of logical fits, including the Jets and Jags. Luckily we have the advantage of having lots of money. One question above all others, if we get Peyton can he and MJD both be the face of the franchise or is it too small for the two of them, which also goes into consideration when it comes to the Jets and Rex Ryan. Think outside the box, its gonna get interesting.

by only jags fan in orange on Jan 27, 2012 10:29 PM EST reply actions  

how did Manning do mentoring the qb’s behind him in Indy??

Sean

Pax Armis Acquiritur

by cuffs007 on Jan 27, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Mannings Neck

Mannings Neck is like a jack in the box dollar taco ………simply sloppy at this point …….. his neck is done , it be cool to transplant mCcowns neck and give it to peyton , he would give our Jags atleast two superbowl rings , but it wont happen guys !

L F J

by Daddycrapper on Jan 27, 2012 10:33 PM EST via Android app reply actions  

A 36 year old, 80% Peyton Manning is better

than ANY QB in this division! Plus, why would he not come to J-Ville? The NFL is business remember … I for one would love to see him in teal and black IF (and its a huge if!) He’s healthy! This would have been a “no brainer” if it was this time last year.

by TCJagsFan on Jan 27, 2012 10:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Signing Manning would give Gabbert 2-3 years to learn in the background which would be better for him in the long run IMO. Peyton would make an excellent teacher. By then, we might have enough offensive weapons that Gabbert’s second run as the 1st sstring QB might not be so bad. That being said, I doubt this will happen.

by Catfanatic1979v1 on Jan 27, 2012 10:57 PM EST reply actions  

again

how well has Manning been a teacher to those QB’s during his entire career in Indy?

Sean

Pax Armis Acquiritur

by cuffs007 on Jan 27, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

to be fair though

Those weren’t 1st round picks sitting behind him. I don’t necessarily agree with the whole teaching thing, but still.

Follow Me On Twitter @Matt_Hoffman28

by Jagmania28 on Jan 27, 2012 11:56 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

In this situation, you hire him while telling him up front what his role is. In Indy, He was the expected long term starter to the extent that they didn’t even have a back up plan at QB – which was the main reason the Polian’s got fired.

by Catfanatic1979v1 on Jan 28, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions  

instead

lets say it gives Gabbert 2-3 yrs to sit and study with the coaches and work out all of the bugs he has. Peyton would then transfer his reign to Gabbert when Gabbert would have the exp neccesary to win.

Dammit just go out there and play to win and I'll be here to cheer!!!!

by Vegasjags on Jan 28, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

so he hits FA before he gets his next chance...

which is exactly why if they were to get Manning, Gabbert would instantly become an afterthought.

@troycarson

by uclatroy on Jan 28, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

this article..

is the reason why fans shouldn’t report on their team

by BASE_D_JAGSS on Jan 28, 2012 1:08 AM EST reply actions  

Why?

Because the anti Jag media will do a better job? Or they will just report how Jags will move?

by Pickle on Jan 28, 2012 7:38 AM EST up reply actions  

If he's healthy, I'd guess he's worth $28

It’s gonna be interesting to see what happens with him this offseason…

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
2011 Big Cat Country fantasy football league CHAMPION

by Brian Levenson on Jan 28, 2012 6:23 AM EST reply actions  

To Indy, I mean.

I see about a 0% chance he winds up here.

Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
2011 Big Cat Country fantasy football league CHAMPION

by Brian Levenson on Jan 28, 2012 6:26 AM EST up reply actions  

It would make sense to get Peyton

but we are talking about the Jaguars where sense gets thrown out the window.

by nationalmediacansuckit on Jan 28, 2012 9:29 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

So is Peyton or Timmy the starter?

Bc I thought we were trading for Tim. So tebow starts, Peyton the backup and Blaine 3rd stringer.

by Slawsc on Jan 29, 2012 8:53 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Zero, that's what the odds are

Gene Smith is staking his professional reputation on Gabbert, on how he plays, progresses and where he leads the Jags. He is not going to sit Gabbert his second year after starting 14 games as a rookie. He is not going to bring Manning to be a mentor. He is not going to pay someone $20+ million a year to ride the bench. He is not going to attempt to develop an entire new receiving corps then turn it over to a new qb the following year.
Manning may well be on some team’s roster in 2012, but it won’t Jacksonville’s.

Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."

by unhipcat on Jan 29, 2012 1:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

To quote Oehser regarding #18:

“some ordinarily pragmatic people will get very, very excited and rethink their situations”

@troycarson

by uclatroy on Jan 29, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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