I am finding myself really questioning Gene Smith. What we heard from Vic was that Gene covented draft picks and would try to get as many as he could and stockpile them (ala New England). Instead we seem to have a GM that spends draft picks to reach up for talent no better than what we could have gotten, had we stayed where we were.
Unlike others, I don’t question his ability to evaluate talent. I feel he is a very good evaluator of talent.. and I think 2009 proves it and I also think the 2009 draft was his ONLY BAP draft, and it shows how vital the BAP method is, you get good talent, and more importantly, you get more of it.
What I am starting to question, is his drafting strategy, and his waste of very important picks. Because under Gene in the last 4 drafts, we have lost TWO 2nd round picks and a 3rd ( I Know it was 4th but I will get to that later).
In trade we got an extra 3rd round pick in 2009, and the ability to trade up a few slots in the first round in 2011 and 2012 to get talent that is not much better than what he could have gotten, had he kept all his picks and stuck to BAP.
So let’s look at his use of Draft picks in the first 3 rounds from a purely mathematical way.
Lets assume players in the first round get an A grade, second a B grade, third rank a C and fourth a D.
2009 (1, 2, 3, 3) - Gave #2 in 2010 up for #3 in 2009
2010 (1, 3) – Lost #2 in 2009 for Cox (which was arguably worth it, but did he HAVE to)
2011 (1, 3) – Lost #2 to move up to get Gabbert
2012 (1, 2, 4*) – I feel we actually gave away our 3rd, because had he used the #3 on talent that would have been there in the 4th round. Anger as a pick I actually like, but because we didn’t have a 4th round to get him and knew wouldn’t be there in the 5th, he had to use the #3 on him. So effectively he traded a 3rd round pick for Blackmon.
So his last four drafts included 4 – #1, 2 – #2, 4 – #3, and effectively 1 - #4 in the first 3 rounds.
So equating this to math.. 1st = A (4), 2nd = B (3), 3rd = C (2) and 4th =D (1)
16+6+8+1 = 31 = and Average of 2.8 talent for a group of 11 players. Giving the Jaguars C+ talent
An average GM would be 16+12+8 = 36 an average of 3 and 12 players of B talent
You could also break it down this way by adding the players grade divide by the 3 rounds he should have had.
2009 = 3.66 (4,3,2,2 / 3 rnds) = A (Kind of proves the adage extra picks are valuable)
2010 = 2.0 (4,2 / 3 rnds) = C-
2011 = 2.0 (4,2 / 3 rnds) = C-
2012 = 2.66 (4,3,1 / 3rnds) = C
AVG = 2.58
AVG GM = 3
Which tells us what we already starting to see, that being on average Gene is a below average GM. Not a failure, but just below average. As for talent, as I said before I don’t think that is as bad as people want to bust him for.
2009 – I think no matter how you cut it was a very good draft. But as I mentioned the ONLY One that I think went by BAP and not need based drafting.
2010 – You see unlike a lot of the haters I understand the Alualu pick.. with the new CBA in the offing, NO ONE wanted to trade up into the top 10 and pay top 10 kind of money. Also the draft was pretty weak overall except for a few players. We also didnt have a #2 round pick because we gave that up for Cox in 2009. While a Great pick.. having NO #2 hurt us and was it necessary..?
2011 – If Gene had NOT reached up for Gabbert we would have a #2 pick in the 2011 round. Unlike 2009 it was a great draft full of talent. He could have gotten Dalton or Mallett instead. Then we could have picked up Torrey Smith in the second and (If we got Mallett) a good pash rusher in the first. We had so many options, if we had not gotten Gabbert, or at minimum not spent the #2 to get him.
2012 – AGAIN ANOTHER REACH, AGAIN ANOTHER LOST PICK. If we stayed where we were we could have picked up Wright. Used our 3rd for a DE or OL player, and picked up Anger in the 4th.
So in final, if we had stayed where we were and had a 2nd round draft pick in 2010 and 2011, and were able to use our 3rd in 2012 appropriately, I think the team would be MUCH better off than it is now, and have the talent even Gene Smith agrees we need.
So hopefully, IF Gene is here for the 2013 Draft, and IF Gabbert comes around late in the season, I hope that he goes back to a BAP mentality, and even trades down to pick up additional draft picks. That’s what GOOD GMs do.. BAD and Desperate GMs are the ones we see time and again, wasting draft picks to move up and get players they think they NEED and isn’t that exactly what he said he wouldn't do when he became GM.?