I've read on several sites and blogs that Gene Smith should be fired because his Top 10 draft picks have not proven themselves to be "stars." I was also advised that Pro Bowl selections should not be used as criteria.
So, here's my subjective, non-scientific evaluation of 2009-2011 picks and their ascendency to stardom.
2009: Stafford, J Smith, T Jackson, Curry, Sanchez, A Smith, Heyward-Bey, Monroe, Raji, Crabtree. Star: Stafford, Raji, Monroe. Crabtree has some numbers this year. Star rating: 3.5
2010: Bradford, Suh, McCoy, T Williams, Berry, Okung, Haden, McClain, Spillers, Alualu. Star: Suh, Berry, Spiller. I don't know enough about Haden or the OTs. Star rating: 3.5
2011: Newton, Miller, Dareus, Green, Peterson, Jones, A Smith, Locker, T Smith, Gabbert. Easier to go the opposite direction here. Dareus, Locker, and Gabbert have not show star potential. Star rating: 7.
14 out of 30, by no means a guarantee.
Let's look at the Jags' pick over that time period.
Alualu: try this on for size. He has better numbers than everyone except Suh.
Gabbert: abysmal rookie season. 2012 not looking exceptionally better so far.
The point of this post is not to defend Gene Smith or to try to convince anyone that the Jags have made good Top 10 selections. It's to propose that saying someone is a bad GM because his Top 10 picks aren't stars may not be a supportable argument.