How Good Was the Defense in 2011-12?
Judging a team defense is very hard to do from a statistical standpoint. While team ranks often are based on total yards allowed per game, often that statistic alone can be very misleading.This is especially true to the whole philosophy of a "bend but don't break" defense. Others may stress points allowed or points allowed per game as a key factor of a good defense. That logic is also not without flaws as it doesn't consider field position, a terrible offense or turnovers that directly lead to points. As we all know time of possession isn't a guaranteed recipe for success, as often the 2011 Jaguars won that statistic and still managed to lose 11 games. So how do we judge a defense outside of the realm of the eye test?
While the eye test would have worked versus the Ravens and the utter domination displayed (or as the Ravens seemed to believe it was their utter lack of execution) I believe the best way to judge a defense is to dissect the play of the opposing quarterback. Since this is a passer friendly league, basing the play of the opposite qb should give an adequate example of the overall performance of a team defense. If a defensive is disrupting an offense it should directly impact completion percentage, yards and cause interceptions which are all factors that influence passer rating. The 2010 Jaguars defense (not them again) gave up a whopping 262.1 yards per game in the air, and an astounding average qb rating of 98.5! For frame of reference, only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Tony Romo had better qb ratings than 98.5 this year. Think about that for a second, under that logic EVERY qb we played had success around a level comparable to a top 5 qb! Contrast that to this past season's squad and their much more manageable average rating of 83.7 and you can see the drastic change. What makes this drastic improvement even more impressive is the amount of injuries that were dealt to the unit. The 2011 Jaguars defense was much better at applying pressure, causing turnovers and less apt to give up the big play.
While our linebacker play was very solid, I think this mass improvement has to be directly related to two factors; Mel Tucker taking control, and the improvement of the secondary. The contributions of Dwight Lowery, Dawan Landry and Drew Coleman cannot be overlooked.
While there are concerns going forward, especially at the Cornerback position, there has to be a lot to get excited about regarding the continued improvement of this young unit.
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Excellent picture.
Also a nicely written article. I’ve said before that if the defense can maintain last years level of talent at each position, then the play we seen last season should be able to be repeated. Especially with most of the defensive coaching staff returning.
Very good point.
When a QB has things under control, usually the opposing defense is taking a battering. I’d also like to add something about getting off the field on 3rd down. Ultimately, 3rd down is the win or lose down in the NFL. How did our defense fare in that category? I believe that might also be a strong indicator of a defense’s success.
The Teal and Black are comin' back!
Less about Tucker, more about lack of talent in 2010
Tucker may be, and in my opinion is a good DC, but many players on the 2010 team had zero business being starters.
Does he not have to get credit for getting the most out of guys we picked up off the scrap heap that were starting late in the year?
by Jagfan89 on Feb 17, 2012 9:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Advanced stats are best to judge whole defenses or offenses, in my opinion
I mean actual advanced stats, not PFF’s "ratings"garbage.
Football Outsiders has the Jags as 5th best
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
Up from 32nd, note
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Feb 17, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Defense is still very subjective to grade imo. How do you statsically account for pre snap positioning? Or simplier yet the offense just not executing? It is like grading a pitcher in baseball off wins or era, without taking into account any of the factors out of his control. But one can easily see that this d was much improved..
by Jagfan89 on Feb 17, 2012 10:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's not easy to grade
That’s why FBO works hard at it. Adjusts for opponents, and really then just looks at the hard numbers on how many yards you allow, when you allow them, redzone defense, pretty much everything. Other than watching tape, it’s as good an objective estimation as you can get.
Formerly known as Vasilii, follow me on twitter @dolgorukii
by Thomas Beekers on Feb 18, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Just gave it a look.
Those stats are much better than the boilerplate stat sheet you get from NFL.com or anywhere else for that matter. Good stuff. I’m totally impressed with the amount of improvement the defense was able to make in one year. Even better, where they ended up even after all of the injuries and late season blowouts.
biggest mistake
Biggest mistake would be not resigning lowery. Imo he was a very big reason defense was improved.
by jakesw on Feb 18, 2012 12:33 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
He helped...
but it was also an improved group of starting linebackers and the addition of Coleman that helped just as much, if not more, than Lowery. While it may have been very little, I think Prosinski helped also, as he allowed Tucker to use some 3 safety sets before he got injured. It had to be an effective personnel grouping if it kept being used over the course of several games.
I think
the new personnel helped more than Mel Tucker taking over play calling. The coaching staff did pretty well. For proof of that, look no further than the fact that many of them are back this season. However, I think the new players helped more than anything.































