2012 NFL Free Agency: Jaguars Have to Eliminate Needs in Free Agency
by Adam Stites on Feb 4, 2012 4:56 PM EST
in Meta-Jacksonville Jaguars
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PrintWhen Gene Smith explained exactly what his drafting philosophy was last year, it wasn't the cut and dry, rank-and-pick selection style that Vic Ketchman made it out to be. Instead it made a lot of sense why the Jaguars have happened to address needs in each of their last three drafts.
"You have grades ranges – what I call levels – within a round," Smith said. "When you get farther down the board, you get more players who become more similar. You take the greatest need within a grade range, but you’re going to take the guy who is a level above if he’s still there." - Jaguars.com (April 21, 2011)
The reality is that the draft is certainly need based, but a drafter can't sacrifice value to address that need. The Jaguars need to find a wide receiver, but if there isn't one worth taking at the seventh overall selection, they'll look elsewhere. Given their recent draft histories, I also doubt the Jaguars would take a position they don't perceive as a need just because a player is ranked slightly higher on the draft board.
The result is a balance between need and value that is the reality on draft day instead of the oversimplified draft strategies of best available player or position specific drafting. With that in mind, the Jaguars have very few positions, if any, on their roster that couldn't be upgraded with new talent through the draft.
But there's a difference between positions that can be upgraded and starting spots that have to be filled. For example, iIf the Jaguars do not fill both defensive end positions with starters in free agency they will be absolutely forced to try and find a starting defensive end early in the 2012 NFL Draft. While I like North Carolina DE Quinton Coples, the Jaguars need to avoid a scenario in which they have no choice but to draft him because they have a shortage of starting level defensive ends.
If the Jaguars do not re-sign Rashean Mathis or find his replacement prior to the draft, they'll likely be forced to find a starting-quality cornerback early in the draft.
But if they are able to fill their crucial, starting needs in free agency, they'll open themselves to the opportunity to pick based on value. They'll give themselves the option to trade down and/or target positions that don't necessarily absolutely have to be had.
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How hard is it to understand BAP?!? SERIOUSLY!!
YOU CHOOSE THE BAP NO MATTER WHAT. IF YOU NEED A RECEIVER, YOU TRADE DOWN TO THE SPOT WHERE HE IS THE BAP. IF YOU CAN’T TRADE DOWN, THEN YOU PICK THE BAP, NO MATTER WHAT POSITION HE PLAYS. ITS REALLY THAT SIMPLE.
You forgot one clause.
If in your spot there exist multiple players with the same grade. YOU TAKE THE PLAYER WHO PLAYS A POSITION OF NEED.
Really?
So, in the first round, you have a Running back graded a 90.05 and a Tackle at 90.03, and you take the running back? That’s bad business. It’s better for the team to take that Tackle. If that running back is at a higher level than all the other options, then yes take the running back; but it’s like Adam said, Gene said…some of those players’ talent starts to get very similar. You would have to be an idiot not to take the one that is a need. Duh. There are many variables and strategies you could be trying to apply which this method of leveling allows flexibility for. If it were really that simple then GM’s wouldn’t spend all year planning and scouting in a way that could best fit their strategy.
Love Vic, but the guy really screwed up a lot of people’s thinking on the draft.
Vic was actually right on the example you're using though. Vic always said that premium positions always trumped a close grade. You can get good RBs in late round one, round two, and sometimes even three. "Get the big guys first" was always his motto
"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes
Totally agreed with that part
Both in my opinion and how I think Gene drafts.
I am refering to the Rank 'em Pick 'em
In almost every situation there should be more than one guy at the top of the list, and he made it seem as though it was simply the guy at the top. Yes, if one player stands out as the clear BAP, such as Fairley to the Lions, then you should take them. Otherwise, you should attack need if applicable. Playing a premium position (or lack thereof) would make or trump any of the above. I think this is ideal, and realistic in the upper rounds…particularly with drafts deep at a position or heavy in a bracket.
Well, I hear you about taking the best available player, but my question for you is:
“Best” according to whom? Gene may have a guy ranked higher than Mike Tannenbaum, and they both may have a player ranked higher than Jerry Jones. Mayock, Kiper, and McShay have players graded differently, so who is right. Saying BAP sounds good, but it’s a subjective label. It makes it easier to do what they say in this piece – have several players of equal ability (in your teams eyes) in each tier, then pick the one who makes the most sense for your team.
Fidelis Ad Mortem
Best according to who's the GM
Gene ranks the BAP , then pick the BAP. If two players are equal, then he has something else that determines the BAP. Either way, he’s picking the BAP.
Where are you getting your information?
I’ve never read or heard anywhere that if Gene can’t make up his mind, he has somebody pick.
Section 442, RIP
"You think you know, but you don't know."
by unhipcat on Feb 4, 2012 7:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
All depends on Free Agency
Whatever/whoever the team signs in free agency will dictate what they do in the 2012 Draft come April. If they sign 2 DE’s, why draft Coples? If they don’t sign free agent WR’s, they’ll draft a couple. Simple logic really…
My best guess
- Gene brings in two free agent receivers (also guard, DE and corner)
- He also drafts two receivers, round 3 or later
- First round pick is a tackle … 3 good ones in top 10-12 players
- Round 2 is a corner or safety.
I doubt...
Gene adds 4 new receivers. I especially doubt he uses late round picks on any as that’s what the current receivers on the team that he drafted are. Also, I don’t think he’ll be bringing any guards in during free agency. We don’t have a need there and Gene hasn’t shown the propensity to use free agency to add players in positions that we don’t have a need for. Lastly, saying which position Gene will draft, in what round, is counter productive to the topic we’re discussing here.
Man Vic really did a number on Jag fans and this literal BAP interpretation
Maybe it’s the hotdog lover that needed the bib?
Because people become so obsessed over it
I mean wouldn’t you grow tired of breaking down the same philosophy day after day? Sure, he took the easy way out and served up a simplified version of it but, it got the point across without killing you with the details.
Nothing is ever black and white, least of all BAP.
What the phrase means is you take the best player available based on the rankings of the team. If there are two players close to the same value then you have to consider things like how many other players are there at the position? What do you need from the draft pick? Is there a player with a similar ranking at a position of need? At a premium position?
When you have an answer that you feel satisfies all of those questions, you turn in your card.
It’s not cut and dry, but it’s not “The team needs a receiver so I’m going to take a receiver.” Basically, as long as it’s not that, I’m fine.
Twitter: BLByline Youtube: BLByline
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Gene just signed a new 3 yr. contract...
I don’t think he’ll be fired so soon. I hope our next draft class is terrible, it’ll only delay the time when we get into the playoffs. It’s been too long already.
Heres the pick
I think Coples, Claborne, Reiff, and Blackmon will be considered but im taking Luke Kuechly LB from BC. Top character and productive plus he will be 21 when the season starts. He can sit for awhile then come in for injjury and special teams. He may be the next POZ. SO why shouldnt we get him? Our LB are either old or injury prone. Our depth is not ideal. Allen is solid but after that nobody and Gene had trouble finding that 5th LB all year. This way we have 5 good LB all year long with a future starter for years.
Ah...not at number 7.
Plain and simple…any pick at this point (outside of the QB position) is drafted to start. If you pick a LB..you better plan to start him. Quarterback is the only position in which a rookie gets better from the bench.
Why does he have to start
Its BAP. This team does not have many needs and after free agency I think they will only need depth at LB, a RT, WR and DE/CB. So why not take a LB if he is going to be a stud. D smith is up in age. POZ and Session are questionable because of injury.
by childintime12 on Feb 5, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
This team has more needs than you think,
Also,
In no way is Poz questionable.
He only sat out at the end of one game with a concussion, while also playing on the field at least 90% of the time and ended up with 119 combined tackles, which is the 12th most in the NFL.
"...I'm not trying to act giddy but the guy is a stud.'' - Terry McDonough, Director of Player Personnel, Jacksonville Jaguars
Given their recent draft histories, I also doubt the Jaguars would take a position they don’t perceive as a need just because a player is ranked slightly higher on the draft board.
What, in their recent draft history, leads you to this conclusion?
look at our drafts since 2009
since 2009 when Gene Smith took over, only one draft (2011) did he not draft 2 or more of the same position, which shows that position and need do have some significance on Gene Smith’s draft board.
Was Blaine Gabbert, BAP at 10 last year, or a need?
Players drafted after Gabbert in 2011 leading up to our “original” pick at number 16.
J.J Watt (DE), Christian Ponder(QB), Nick Fairley(DT) , Robert Quinn(DE) , Mike Pouncey© , and Ryan Kerrigan(DE). Of the positions drafted here what was the biggest need?
You could’ve gone to Wikipedia and done the looking yourself, but I did it for you, evidence.
"...I'm not trying to act giddy but the guy is a stud.'' - Terry McDonough, Director of Player Personnel, Jacksonville Jaguars
But if you have a guy ranked #1 overall
If you have the top guy on your board available near the time you’re supposed to pick, then you get him. Gabbert was projected a top 5 pick by most accounts and was a surprise that he was even available when we moved up to get him. Do some real research and you would have known this. Stay true to YOUR board – if they had Ponder ranked above Gabbert, then they would have gotten him. If they had Kerrigan (knowing we needed help at DE) ranked higher, they would have gotten him. You rank your players and you draft your board, that’s not the part that’s rocket science.
I don't think
QB was as big of a need as DE last season (at least before training camp)…or DT over DE the season before. Do you really think drafting two tackles addresses more needs than a tackle and some other position of need?
Also, I prefer NFL.com’s Draft History webpage to do my research.
as it is, drafting 2 DTs has made that the most stable position on the team aside from K and RB
Now drafting 2 bookend OTs, not so much.
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You can browse the blog, but you can't participate.
I don't think you took me seriously. If you want it unbanned, email an admin. But, for now, your Stampede Blue privileges are done.
The third DT
D’Anthony Smith hasn’t done much due to injury, but I’m pretty sure he wasn’t drafted because of a perceived need.
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