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Your insanely super early 2012-2013 Fantasy Football "What the heck do I do with this guy" List:

I would like to take a moment to calm my nerves after this insane Hot Tub Time Machine football season featuring a 49ers team deep in the playoffs and a Colts team at the bottom of the barrel. Ahhhhh, feels just like the early 90s.

Seeing as we're now entering the black hole of the nfl season why not argue about something over the next month?! After the jump we're going to look at a few super early fantasy football what the heck picks. Maybe next year you can pick up the next Victor Cruz with your final draft pick or week one waiver!

"Sleepers" who's name you likely know:

Chris Johnson: RB, TENN - Must start with the guy on everyone's angry letter list. I know, I know...he stunk it up last year....but who can blame the guy? A new coach, new system, no training camp, out of shape for the first portion of the season, and a QB/WR combo who didn't really scare opposing defenses. He's only a sleeper in the sense that he underperformed greatly with a first round pick to get him being given up. Still he ended the season with over 1K yards and his second best receiving season (413 yds); which is a good season for normal RBs. CJ2K will bounce back though. Pick him up as a steal if you can get him in the late second to maybe even fourth round! If you draft him earlier just know that you're taking a huge risk with your first or second pick! Not how you win normally.

Star-divide

Jamaal Charles: RB, KC - Getting injured the season before is usually not good for your fantasy draft stock....see MJD this year. Still Charles will more likely than not bounce back with a great season in 2012 with little to no competition in the KC backfield and a new coach who will likely use him correctly. He'll most likely be picked up within the second round if you're in a 2-3 RB league. Let that be someone else's first RB pick. Don't reach on him on potential off an injury.

DeMarco Murray: RB, DAL - Though Murray did fracture his ankle towards the end of the season that doesn't seem to have any impact on his 2012 fantasy season. I must put this disclaimer on this pick though: You just never know what in the world Dallas will do. They may still use the committee backfield approach; but I bet against it. I'd consider him a very early second round pick.

Ryan Matthews: I must preface this by saying that I have NEVER been a Matthews fan. But I must say, if he wasn't playing in SD he would probably be a top 5 RB. As soon as they either get a new coach or a new system, look out for this kid. He's a great late second-third round pick like CJ2K. Consistently average this season unless they played a team with a bad D. I'm simply saying don't draft Matthews as your first round pick. His value lies closer to the third round. While he was the 10th ranked RB in yards he only had 6 TDs (18th in the NFL) don't be deceived. So not worth your first or second pick that could have been used on a QB or better RB.

Torrey Smith: WR, BAL - A name I'm sure many of you know, Smith the speedster from Maryland had a huge 18 yards per catch season and will only get better in 2012. With the Ravens D only getting older their offense will have to be able to keep up in more and more games. I expect this to equal big things for Mr. Smith. Pick him up in rounds 5-9 depending on how many teams are in your league. With 800+ yrds and 7 TDs this past season that aging D should make him at least be considered as your third WR pick of the draft. Fun fact of the day: Torrey Smith was actually better than Anquan Boldin in 2011. One was a waiver pick up, the other was a lower to mid round draft pick -Boldin had 50 more yards receiving but 4 less TDs.

Next years waiver wire bubble boys (too early to tell but keep an eye on them):

Montario Hardesty RB, CLEVE - It just seems like Cleveland coaches really do hate Peyton Hillis just as much as Hillis hates playing for Cleveland lol. Our 2011 Madden cover guy sat out multiple games for questionable injuries throughout the season (undisclosed illness, headaches, and his hamstring problem). This pick would seem to rest more on SOMEONE needing to carry the rock in Cleveland. If Hardesty can remain healthy he may be the guy.

Colts RBs (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, D. Carter)- keep an out out on this group early in the season for your waiver wire. With Peyton likely out in Indy and a new coach there you can bet they'll try to begin establishing a running game. I favor Brown out of the group currently, but who really knows?

Blaine Gabbert: QB, JAX -Call me crazy or a homer but I believe that Gabbert will fare better than ppl believe next year. I would even be willing to risk a draft spot on him dependent on who we draft at WR. Think about this: Gabbert ended the season with one less TD pass than Ponder and five less than Alex Smith. If you subtract all of Lewis' dropped TDs and you're likely close to those numbers already. If we give the kid some true playmakers we may be really shocked at the results. I'd be willing to put a waiver on him for a bye week filler.

Next Year's DO Not Draft List (Or draft at your own risk):

Mark Sanchez QB, NYJ - Not even sure where to begin. While Mr. Sanchez did throw more TDs than Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton (who rushed for an insane number of them), Joe Flacco, and even Michael Vick he is still a pretty inconsistent QB who will never score those TDs in the game you expect him to! With to many games with either zero to one TDs and a pretty low ceiling you can do much better elsewhere. Draft a guy like Cam, Jay Cutler, or maybe Matt Flynn if you're truly feeling frisky (depending on where he goes). You still must draft Santonio Holmes though preferably an early third round or later pick.

Darren McFadden RB, Oak - I'm just not sure what to do with this guy... In 6 games he gets over 600 yds rushing, 4 TDs, 150 yds receiving, and another TD! He easily has Adrian Peterson-type worth but due to his injury history can't be considered a first round pick unless you also draft the guy behind him. That is just an extremely tough sell... It has also been rumored per cbssports.com that the Raiders may likely use the franchise tag on Michael Bush next year and try to get him more involved into the offense early into the season just in case they consider trading McFadden.

Anquan Boldin WR, BAL - See Torrey Smith. Draft Smith in the later rounds. Leave Boldin to geniuses who draft him in the first 3 rounds on name only.

Big Cat Country: who do you see being the biggest "value pick" next year? What about the biggest flub (being highest draft pick to not live up to their status aka 2011 CJ2K)?

Sorry for the length guys :)

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Like the list.

I would add Vernon Davis to the “Do Not Draft” list or at least “Don’t Over Draft”. He had an excellent post season with 4 TDs and got a lot of attention. That being said his targets over the course of the season were very small (around 2 – 4 a game) even in the post season he had few targets in the 49ers run oriented offense. He is a huge boom or bust selection. He was a post season star, but I wouldn’t put him in the top tier of pass catching TEs for fantasy purposes.

by kterr on Feb 6, 2012 1:06 PM EST reply actions  

Good point. I had Davis all season and after the first few weeks just left him on the bench.

Ended up playing Fred Davis until he got suspended the last 4 games…

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I can most definitely see him out of the top 10. I mean we still have:

Rogers, Brees, Brady, Peterson, McCoy, Calvin Johnson, MJD, Manning (Eli), Ray Rice, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Adrian Foster on the board still. That’s not even counting the rookies coming in and the ppl being traded to other teams. Gonna be hard to pass on those guys for CJBarelyOneK……But he’ll be close…I put him 10-15 range (second to third round)

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess it depends on league size... Standard would be 10 teams. I think 2 Qbs go in the top 10 at the max

There is way to much depth and value at the qb postion for anymore than 2 to go that early. With ap tearing his acl i wouldn’t select him over CJ. MJD just had 300+ carries every running back in the last 5 years that has received that many carries has a down year the year following I think owners will have to look closely at that situation. I dont think rookies have anything to do with it in my opinion. I do agree with foster, McCoy, Rice, Megatron all over Cj though it will be interesting to see how it all turns out!

Teach me how to Deji

by Pocket Hercules on Feb 6, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Biggest Known Sleeper: Michael Bush

Biggest Flub: Matt Flynn like Kevin Kolb and Matt Leinhart

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

I'm with you on Mathews

He doesn’t play in a system that benefits the RB too much. Norv Turner is a QB coach at heart who wants to fling it all over the place, regardless of who his back is. I wonder what Tomlinson’s career numbers look like if he had Turner as his head coach throughout his career.

I was under the impression that things had warmed between the Hillis and the Browns and they were now open to him coming back. I did like Hardesty last year, I even picked him up. Then he went and got hurt and some dude name Ogbannayayayaya stole all the “sleeper spotlight”.

I liked it Travis, but don’t spend so much time explaining your choices. You open yourself to having constantly defend your justifications to the BCC “experts”. That’s just my opinion though.

by Jagtastic on Feb 6, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks bro. I'll try to be better with the long explanations.

Just figured there would be SOMEONE who’s like “dude, Matthews is awesome!” So figured I’d tell them why he’s just ‘meh’ first lol…
What I love about fantasy football, everyone has an opinion and it’s always right…….until they lose. LOL

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Fantasy Football

Not really good advice I’d say. I mean isn’t it supposed to be someone you don’t expect to be a sleeper? I mean of course you’d pick up Jamaal Charles and if he is available in the 2nd or third round why wouldn’t you pick Chris Johnson. Also, didn’t Demarco Murray get good fantasy points until he broke his ankle, so who would pick him up either and that’s the same with Matthews and Smith.

by somepersonu on Feb 6, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions  

You really didn't read the article did you? Be honest....lol

b/c everything you just said was already answered above…

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Matthews was overdrafted majorily, Jamaal Charles will be underdrafted after that injury, and Murray could likely be in a time share next season after fracturing his foot and Jones playing just fine in his absense. Simply saying don't overdraft them.

Smith is an average at best WR this past season just looking at the numbers…the same as Santonio Holmes….so again I say…did you actually read it, or skim it and start typing?

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Only 2 disagreements

1 – I don’t believe Holmes will be worth higher than a 7th or 8th round. I’d take a chance on some of the rookies. Had Holmes on 2 teams last year (both drafted around 5th) and he was a hit/miss guy that had a lot of misses.

2 – Who said the Raiders would franchise Michael Bush? There’s no way they can think he’s an elite back…he doesn’t even start.

Otherwise, I pretty much agreed with everything. Insightful on your sleepers. I like to spend some time going over my draft position lists and making decisions on certain sleepers I plan to target and guys at the top that I don’t want to draft at all, so things like this really help me pull the trigger with some players.

As for who I would add? Jeremy Maclin near the top of the 2nd tier WRs. I don’t think DJAX will be back, and I don’t think they’ll have the money for one of the top guys in FA. I’m willing to bet they draft a guy high (maybe Floyd/Wright) that they think can take his role. Maclin should be at the top of the depth chart to start the season, and should also begin hitting his peak. I think he takes a big step forward next season.

by Mr.Awesome on Feb 6, 2012 5:50 PM EST reply actions  

I most definitely agree with the Maclin upgrade...

1) Last season the Jets started their attempt to change their offense into more of a passing team (to much failure). I think we can expect that Holmes will get more targets (which is saying something when you have a guy wit 8 TDs already).

2) It’s not about Michael Bush at all. It’s about the fact that they know there’s no way they can depend on McFadden for a full season. Because of that they’ll either have to franchise Bush, draft a RB in the first two rounds, or sign someone else. Bush can and has carried the load for multiple seasons now with McFadden hurt. It would be pretty smart to try to get something for DMC while they can. And I read it on one of the cbssports.com analysts blog back on Jan 26th. (sorry, I’m at work right now, can get you the direct link later)

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Every pick is going to be "obvious" after the season is done...the question is do you believe it enough for you to actually waste a roster spot on him?

"Sad fact about our generation: Most ppl would rather hear "you look good" than "you are good". We spend thousands a year on cars, clothes, & cosmetics; Forget that. I can give you a Bible for free. Save money, save your soul. Get right with the Savior, Jesus Christ."- Travis D. Holmes

by T.Holmes on Feb 6, 2012 7:06 PM EST reply actions  

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