Why a trade back might occur.

Most Jaguars fans, are hoping the Jaguars can trade back in the NFL Draft, because we need a receiver across from Laurent Robinson, and none are worthy of the 7th pick in the draft. Gene even said, that he would entertain offers.

Tania Ganguli@taniaganguli

#Jaguars GM Gene Smith says he would clearly entertain offers for the 7th pick. "I know there's a lot of interest in Tannehill.

15 Mar 12

As of 3/17/12, the team's needs are:

Wide Receiver: The Jaguars have the guy they wanted, to start as the X receiver. The X receiver is usually the deep threat, and he warrants the most attention. We still need a Z receiver. The Z receiver is typically a possession receiver. A common examples of this is...Donald Driver and Greg Jennings(of 2 years ago), Jennings was the X and Driver was the Z. So we have our X, now we need our Z. There are some guys out there who can fill the position via free agency, and Mike Thomas can do it as well, but I'd think it'd be better if somebody new was brought in. Via the draft, we can get Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, etc. None are worthy of the top 10, although Blackmon will likely be selected within the top 5, with Floyd and Hill likely being selected in the top 20. A trade back, will allow us to select a receiver, filling our biggest need, and gain more picks.

Defensive End: If we failed to resign Mincey, this would be the biggest need as we would have both End positions with big ?s. Mincey had a nice season generating constant pressure, and gained 8 sacks, although 5 were against the Colts. Across from him, we have nobody. For some odd reason, I feel that Gene Smith thinks Aaron Kampman will start across from Mincey, as we haven't signed a defensive end, and Kampman is still on the team with a $5,000,000 salary, yet he failed to generate any statistics last season. If we were to address this position in the 1st, it would have to be at #7, because once Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples are selected, there isn't much left for the Jaguars to get, because the ends in this draft are just not that good. We need a starter, depth isn't that bad, as most of our guys are coming off IR, and we can always resign Douzable.

Cornerback: Mathis has been resigned, but did tear his ACL in November, and may not be healthy by the start of the season. He says he will, but what if the injury re-occurs, as most ACL tears do. We need a guy to step in and be solid, and maybe be his replacement. Morris Claiborne will likely be gone, but Janoris Jenkins and Dre Kirkpatrick should be available. Both those players, have major red flags, so will likely not be on the Jaguars' radar.

Teams that may consider trading up:

First of all, I think Peyton Manning will go to Denver, and Matt Flynn will go to Miami.

Kansas City Chiefs(#11) - Many people are unhappy with Matt Cassel, especially with that big contract, that he hasn't deserved. Trading up, and taking Ryan Tannehill would be a smart move, then releasing Cassel and signing a veteran who can start for a year or two for a lot cheaper, like David Garrard, would also be a smart move.

Seattle Seahawks(#12) - The Seahawks will likely miss out on Peyton Manning, and Matt Flynn will likely choose elsewhere also. They need a franchise quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill can be there guy.

Cleveland Browns(#22) - The Browns can select Justin Blackmon at #4, and trade up and grab their franchise QB at #7, but it has been reported, that Colt McCoy is being favored to be the starting QB. If RG3 was available at #4, they would most likely select him, but I doubt they go out of their way, to grab a guy to unseat McCoy, who has had a 74.5 QB rating the past 2 seasons, yet having literally no weapons, besides his running back, who is now a Chief.

New England Patriots(?) - The Patriots have the ammo to do whatever they want in the draft, they can trade up, trade back, stay put. They may consider trading up and grabbing Courtney Upshaw, as they need a pass rusher. Or grab Melvin Ingram to play the 5-tech Defensive End position in their 3-4. Maybe grab Michael Floyd, or take a cornerback.

What what would we be getting out of these trades?

Draft Tek Trade Chart

This is a draft trade chart, and uses a point system to mock trades.

Kansas City Chiefs - Their #11 selection is worth 1,250 points, and our #7 selection is worth 1,500. That leaves 250 points left on the table, which is their 3rd round pick(#75; 215) and their 5th round pick(#139; 36.5). 215 + 36.5 =251.5...So it would be 1,500 = 1,501.5 So the Jaguars would be trading their #7 selection for the Chiefs #11, #75 and #139 selection.

Seattle Seahawks - The difference between the Chiefs #11 selection and the Seahawks #12 selection is 50 points. So besides the #12 pick(worth 1,200), we would need about 300 points, which is their 3rd round pick(#76; 210) and their 4th round pick(107; 80). Now they have 40 more points of value, so to even it out the Jaguars can throw in their 5th round pick(#135; 38.5) Making the difference only 1.5 points. So the Jaguars would be trading their #7 and #135 selections for the Seahawks #12, #76, and #107 selections. The Seahawks also don't have a 5th round pick, so that is why I used the 4th and our 5th.

Cleveland Browns - Their #22 selection is worth 780 points, and ours is worth 1,500. That's 720 points, which is a lot. They already think that McCoy is their starter, so this is a lot less likely, when they can be adding weapons. For this trade to occur, the Browns would need to trade their 2nd round pick(#37; 530) and both their 4th round picks(#101; 96)(#119; 56). Those 3 picks equal 682 points. Which makes a difference of 38 points. So the Browns would throw in their 5th round pick(#132; 40). So the Jaguars would trade their #7 selections for the Browns #22, #101, #119, #132 selections. Gene Smith would gain nothing, but praise for this, and he'd have a field day, but I highly doubt this occurs.

New England Patriots - The Patriots have two 1st rounds picks(#27; 680)(#31; 600) which is 1,280 points, which leaves a difference of 220 points. The Patriots can then throw in one their #48 2nd round pick(420) and the Jaguars then throw in their 3rd round pick(#71; 235). That leaves 35 points left for the Patriots to add, but I'm sure Gene Smith would be happy with two 1st round picks and another 2nd round pick for their 1st and 3rd.

Out of these four, I think only two might happen, and two are very unlikely. The most likely is the Seahawks, followed by the Chiefs, because they arn't giving up that much for something they really need, a franchise QB. And the Browns and Patriots are giving up a ton for something they either don't need that badly, or something they can find later in the draft. Also remember, that future picks would most likely be used as well.

Assuming the Jaguars trade back with the Seahawks, here is a Jaguars mock draft.

1(#12): Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame

2(#40): Vinny Curry DE Marshall

3(#71): Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina

3(#76): Marvin McNutt WR Iowa

4(#102): LaMichael James RB Oregon

4(#107): Chris Givens WR Wake Forest

6(#166): Rhett Ellison TE USC

7(#213): James Carmon OT Mississippi State

Floyd - He is the best receiver in the draft, in my opinion, but is stock falls due to his red flags. I think Gene will try not making this pick, but the talent is just too hard to not pick. He will be a great receiver across from Robinson, and can turn into one of the greats. As long as he stays out of trouble, the Jaguars will benefit from this pick for the next 10 years, atleast. Also, I'm assuming that Robinson is the only WR we sign via free agency.

Curry - Has a very slow 40, but the talent is there, and I'm sure he'll run faster at his pro day. Under Joe Cullen, he can turn into a good pass rusher.

Norman - He has great talent, as well. He can cover most receivers, and will eventually replace Mathis with another good corner.

McNutt - Can be a low-end starter in league given time. He'll likely serve as the #4 receiver on the team behind Mike Thomas.

James - He's still available, and can be that Darren Sproles type scat back, that this team can use. He would replace Deji/Dujuan.

Givens - Would likely compete with Shorts for the #5 spot, he is a good route runner, and is capable of making multiple guys miss, also ran a 4.41 40 at the combine. Also a returner.

Ellsion - A tight end, with a higher ceiling than Potter.

Carmon - This is a guy, who we select with a late round pick, to ensure we get him. He would be a project, and likely get placed on the Practice Squad, but at 6'7" 320 lbs, and loaded with power, might be able to develop into a solid reserve guard.

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