The Tebow fans who are all in a tizzy over the Jags not getting him via trade like to talk about how it would be a business no brainer have not to my knowledge actually offered any projections. I decided to do some back of the envelope math, which you can see after the jump.
I'm assuming full Tebowmania here for the purpose of showing what a best case scenario might've looked like over the life of his existing contract (3 years) and also going with very very simple numbers that don't take into account the fact other people get a piece of this revenue.
Some numbers to consider:
Tickets & Concessions:
If Tebow helped sell 10K season tickets (which is a very very high estimate) @ $75 a ticket (also a very high ticket price) we're talking about $7.5M in additional ticket revenue per year.(the 10 game season ticket package is a given)
Assuming those 10K fans spent $20 apiece in concessions for the 10 games we're looking at an additional $2M in revenue
So the total there would be $9.5M in additional revenue per year.
If he helped sell an additional 100K replica jerseys (pretty high estimate since many would likely wear their already purchased Tebow Gator jerseys) at $75 apiece we're looking at another $7.5M in revenue (again assuming sales hold consistent over 3 years).
Total Potential revenue assuming all of the above happens is ~$51M
The Cost of Tebow
His contract is 2012: $1.1 million, 2013: $6.055 million, 2014: $7.145 million.
The total there is $14.3M, and if you take away the $2.5M-$3M payback and you're talking roughly $11.8M
So the net positive of the ticket sales and jersey sales thrown out, minus the cost of Tebow's salary would be roughly $40M over three years.
This is a best case scenario (IMO) and I think we'd more likely have seen maybe 1/2 or 1/3 of that revenue generated. In the final analysis, I'm not sure that those additional revenue figures justify the move if the team truly believes he doesn't help them win, as all of these figures would likely fall apart quickly if it didn't work out. Again, this is just some food for thought and not a highly scientific excercise. I didn't want him on the team but figured I'd at least try to hear the Tebowla Virus victims out and try to put some figures to their assertions.
Note: This also doesn't take into account the fact that the team would essentially have to trade Gabbert or eat his contract which is a fully guaranteed $12M deal. So you're looking at a possible further reduction in that net positive.