If Ryan Tannehill is available at pick 7, the Jaguars could be in the market to move down in the first round. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
It's always hard to get a read on what Gene Smith is planning on doing in the draft. I challenge you to find a single mock draft from any of the past three seasons that had the Jaguars taking Eugene Monroe, Tyson Alualu or Blaine Gabbert. All were very surprising.
That's why, as Vito Stellino pointed out on Twitter today, it's even more noteworthy that Smith, who is usually very quiet about his draft plans, has mentioned the possibility of a trade out of the seventh overall selection. The comments from Smith coupled with reports of smokescreens from the Jaguars regarding their interest in South Carolina pass rusher Melvin Ingram, makes it seem more and more likely that the Jaguars are looking to trade back in the first round.
But even if the phone rings for the Jaguars with a team on the line that is interested in moving up, the price still has to be right. So how much should the price tag for the seventh pick be?
Jimmy Johnson in most often credited with creating the NFL's trade value chart in the mid-90's to place a value on draft picks and for the most part, it was a good tool to predict draft day trades.
Johnson's original first round values looked like this:
But as the price tag for early first round picks inflated, the value of those top picks dropped. I rewrote the trade value chart to more accurately represent the values of the picks as they were being traded today.
However, with the new rookie wage scale, both charts are now in question. While the 2nd round values and the values for later picks are probably still the same value as they've always been, the value of the first round picks is still very much a question mark.
According to the trades made last year by the Falcons and Jaguars to move up, the value of top 10 picks is more closely represented by Johnson's mid-90's chart. So with that in mind, let's assume that the Jaguars have a pick worth about 1,500 of trade value.
This is my list of possible fair trades involving only 2012 selections with the teams behind the Jaguars in the first round:
|Dolphins||8||1,400||100||Dolphins give 103 (4th)|
|Panthers||9||1,350||150||Panthers give 104 (4th), 143 (5th)|
|Bills||10||1,300||200||Bills give 71 (3rd)|
|Chiefs||11||1,250||250||Chiefs give 74 (3rd), 182 (6th)|
|Seahawks||12||1,200||300||Seahawks give 75 (3rd), 106 (4th)|
|Cardinals||13||1,150||350||Cardinals give 80 (3rd), 112 (4th), 177 (6th), 185 (6th)|
|Cowboys||14||1,100||400||Cowboys give 45 (2nd)|
|Eagles||15||1,050||450||Eagles give 46 (2nd)|
|Jets||16||1,000||500||Jets give 47 (2nd), 154 (5th)|
|Bengals||17||950||550||Bengals give 53 (2nd), 83 (3rd)|
|Chargers||18||900||600||Chargers give 49 (2nd), 78 (3rd)|
|Bears||19||875||625||Bears give 50 (2nd), 79 (3rd), 184 (6th)|
|Titans||20||850||650||Titans give 52 (2nd), 82 (3rd), 115 (4th)|
Keep in mind, that the further the distance is between teams the more likely they are to use future draft picks so as to avoid spending an entire draft's worth of picks on a single player. The rule of thumb is that a future pick is worth roughly one round less than a current year's pick. For example, a 2013 1st round pick is worth close to the same as a 2012 2nd round pick.