NFL Draft 2012: How Much Could The Jaguars Get In A Trade For 7th Overall Pick?

If Ryan Tannehill is available at pick 7, the Jaguars could be in the market to move down in the first round. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

It's always hard to get a read on what Gene Smith is planning on doing in the draft. I challenge you to find a single mock draft from any of the past three seasons that had the Jaguars taking Eugene Monroe, Tyson Alualu or Blaine Gabbert. All were very surprising.

That's why, as Vito Stellino pointed out on Twitter today, it's even more noteworthy that Smith, who is usually very quiet about his draft plans, has mentioned the possibility of a trade out of the seventh overall selection. The comments from Smith coupled with reports of smokescreens from the Jaguars regarding their interest in South Carolina pass rusher Melvin Ingram, makes it seem more and more likely that the Jaguars are looking to trade back in the first round.

But even if the phone rings for the Jaguars with a team on the line that is interested in moving up, the price still has to be right. So how much should the price tag for the seventh pick be?

Jimmy Johnson in most often credited with creating the NFL's trade value chart in the mid-90's to place a value on draft picks and for the most part, it was a good tool to predict draft day trades.

Johnson's original first round values looked like this:

Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value
1 3,000 9 1,350 17 950 25 720
2 2,600 10 1,300 18 900 26 700
3 2,200 11 1,250 19 875 27 680
4 1,800 12 1,200 20 850 28 660
5 1,700 13 1,150 21 800 29 640
6 1,600 14 1,100 22 780 30 620
7 1,500 15 1,050 23 760 31 600
8 1,400 16 1,000 24 740 32 590

But as the price tag for early first round picks inflated, the value of those top picks dropped. I rewrote the trade value chart to more accurately represent the values of the picks as they were being traded today.

Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value
1 2,500 9 1,175 17 820 25 655
2 2,250 10 1,100 18 790 26 640
3 2,050 11 1,050 19 770 27 625
4 1,850 12 1,000 20 750 28 610
5 1,650 13 960 21 730 29 595
6 1,500 14 920 22 710 30 580
7 1,350 15 880 23 690 31 565
8 1,250 16 850 24 670 32 550

However, with the new rookie wage scale, both charts are now in question. While the 2nd round values and the values for later picks are probably still the same value as they've always been, the value of the first round picks is still very much a question mark.

The best anyone can do is use the trades from last year as a possible benchmark and the trade between the Rams and the Redskins as an indicator of what a top pick is now worth.

According to the trades made last year by the Falcons and Jaguars to move up, the value of top 10 picks is more closely represented by Johnson's mid-90's chart. So with that in mind, let's assume that the Jaguars have a pick worth about 1,500 of trade value.

This is my list of possible fair trades involving only 2012 selections with the teams behind the Jaguars in the first round:

Team Pick Value Compensation Possible Trade
Dolphins 8 1,400 100 Dolphins give 103 (4th)
Panthers 9 1,350 150 Panthers give 104 (4th), 143 (5th)
Bills 10 1,300 200 Bills give 71 (3rd)
Chiefs 11 1,250 250 Chiefs give 74 (3rd), 182 (6th)
Seahawks 12 1,200 300 Seahawks give 75 (3rd), 106 (4th)
Cardinals 13 1,150 350 Cardinals give 80 (3rd), 112 (4th), 177 (6th), 185 (6th)
Cowboys 14 1,100 400 Cowboys give 45 (2nd)
Eagles 15 1,050 450 Eagles give 46 (2nd)
Jets 16 1,000 500 Jets give 47 (2nd), 154 (5th)
Bengals 17 950 550 Bengals give 53 (2nd), 83 (3rd)
Chargers 18 900 600 Chargers give 49 (2nd), 78 (3rd)
Bears 19 875 625 Bears give 50 (2nd), 79 (3rd), 184 (6th)
Titans 20 850 650 Titans give 52 (2nd), 82 (3rd), 115 (4th)
(Compensation is the amount of value necessary to reach 1,500, the approximate value of the Jaguars' pick)

Keep in mind, that the further the distance is between teams the more likely they are to use future draft picks so as to avoid spending an entire draft's worth of picks on a single player. The rule of thumb is that a future pick is worth roughly one round less than a current year's pick. For example, a 2013 1st round pick is worth close to the same as a 2012 2nd round pick.

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