STARKVILLE, MS - SEPTEMBER 15: Cornerback Morris Claiborne #17 of the LSU Tigers intercepts a pass against Mississipppi State in the fourth quarter on September 15, 2011 at Davis Wade stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)
Each NFL Draft pick is worth a certain amount of value. While the trade value chart tries to quantify that, the reality is that it's hard to put an exact number on a pick that can fluctuate depending upon the level of play of the players in the draft class.
The seventh overall selection is worth a lot. The expectation for a team drafting in the seventh spot is that they'll draft a player that makes an impact similar to that of Adrian Peterson or Champ Bailey, both former-seventh overall selections; and avoid selecting a Troy Williamson or Byron Leftwich, also seventh overall selections.
The idea is to get the full value of the seventh pick by selecting a player that is worthy of the pick. But what if there isn't a player there that is worth the selection? Then you have to trade down and try to recoup the value.
Yes, yes I know...there has to be a trade partner for a trade to work. I get that. The thing is, there will be trade partners. There are always trade partners.
The question is whether or not the teams looking to trade up will be interested enough in acquiring the seventh pick that they will offer enough value to entice a team to trade down. If the Jaguars deem the seventh pick worth 1,500 value points and the top player on the board at their time to pick is only worth 1,200 value points, they should look to trade down.
If the best a team offers is only 1,300 value points, then it's a deal. It's as simple as that. Maximize the value of the draft pick.
So will there be a player available at seven that is worth the seventh overall selection? I seriously doubt it.
Paul Kuharsky of ESPN argued that the seventh pick could be a particularly bad one because there "may just be six premium players in the draft" and lists Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Morris Claiborne, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon as those premium players. I would argue that Blackmon doesn't belong in that category, but the point holds true that there could certainly be a drop off in talent for the Jaguars at pick seven.
If that is the case and a player like Morris Claiborne is off the board, the Jaguars almost certainly have to trade back and not try to force themselves into selecting a player not worth the pick.