I've been a reader here at BCC for years, but never actually posted anything. During a sleepless night the other day I decided to play around with an NFL QB rating calculator. After playing around for a few minutes, i came to a conclusion. Blaine Gabbert's 2011 could have an entirely different outlook, if just a few small things went his way.
We all know there are issues with Gabberts game. The pocket presence, the tendency to throw off his back foot, etc. We've heard them all. While he does need to improve in some areas, maybe he's not as far behind guys like Andy Dalton, or Christian Ponder as we had originally though. Here's the stats for all three in 2011
Dalton - 300/516. 3398yds. 58% Completions. 6.59 avg per attempt. 20TD 13INT - 80.4 QB Rating
Ponder - 158/291 1813yds. 54.3 Completions. 6.37 avg per attempt. 13TD 13INT - 70.1 QB Rating
Gabbert - 210/413. 2214yds. 50.5 Completions. 5.36 avg per attempt. 12TD 11INT - 65.4 QB Rating.
At first glance, it appears that both Dalton and Ponder had the better seasons. Higher Rating, Completion %, Yards per attempt, etc.
What these statistics don't take into account, is just how bad the Jaguars 2011 receiving corps was. Think of how many times a WR dropped a pass, ran a wrong route, etc. Now think of how much different things could have been if the Jags had the receiving corps they now have. How many extra completions per game do you think these guys would add? Last year Gabbert didn't have the luxury of an AJ Green or a Percy Harvin. He had an underperforming Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis. What if those guys didn't struggle though? What if Gabbert had Laurent Robinson, Lee Evans, or Justin Blackmon like he will in 2012?
Let's be pretty conservative here say this years upgraded receiving corp catches an average of 2 balls per game, that last year fell to the ground. That totals 32 extra completions for Gabbert. Last season Gabbert's completions went for an average of 10.5 yards per. So we'll use that. Let's say they add just 1TD and Take away 1INT. Then let's take a look at Gabberts 2011 Season...
242/413 - 2550 yds. 58.5% Completions. 6.17 avg per attempt. 13TD 10INT. 75.0 QB Rating.
While these small adjustments don't put him ahead of Dalton, they do put him ahead of Ponder. Take into consideration the fact that Gabbert was the least NFL ready of the three, due to lack of experience at the college level, etc... i'd say Gabbert isn't as far behind Andy Dalton as the numbers would lead you to believe.