Nate Silver, the stats guy at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ who cut his teeth on political election predictions, weighs in on the Super Bowl http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/11/nate-silver-super-bowl-prediction_n_2451994.html Word of caution, it's on First Take, but surprisingly, both Smith and what's-his-name are tolerable. With the hiring of Caldwell and Tony Khan's apparent interest, there's been a lot of talk recently about metrics, so readers may find this interesting as it relates to the Jags. He mentions going for it on fourth downs, Belichick, the difference between gaining a yard on 3rd and 1 and 2nd and long. (para breaks don't show in preview. hope they appear when posted.)