FanPost

Jags fighting for fourth pick in draft

I looked at Adam's latest ranking of the bottom 12 teams vis-a-vis the first pick in the 2014 draft and decided to do a thing.

I listed those teams in current order, worst to first (or worst to twelfth... or twelfth to first, whichever).

Then I looked at each team's remaining schedule and identified which opponents were in the bottom 12 and which weren't (I very cleverly identify those as "Top 20"). If the opponent was Top 20 team, I counted those as losses for the dirty dozen teams. (For instance, all five remaining Oakland games are against Top 20 teams, so they win none, and finish the season with their current record of four wins.)

The remaining games were then matchups between the bottom dozen (B12), which I split 50/50 (Because, really, is any of these teams guaranteed a win against another. Spoiler: no). I realize teams can't win half a game, but -- easier math.

I then added that number of wins to the previously determined, irrefutably correct prediction of those teams' interim record to come up with the adjusted win total. (See?)

Team Record Top 20 w/loss B12 x/2 Wins

JAX 2-9 2 2-11 3 1.5 3.5

HOU 2-9 4 2-13 1 .5 2.5

ATL 2-9 3 2-12 2 1 3

MIN 2-8-1 4 2-13 1 .5 2.5

TB 3-8 4 3-12 1 .5 3.5

WAS 3-8* 2 3-10 3 1.5 4.5

CLE 3-8 3 3-11 2 1 4

BUF 3-8 2 3-10 3 1.5 4.5

OAK 4-7 5 4-12 0 0 4

NYG 4-7 3 4-10 2 1 5

PIT 5-6 3 5-9 2 1 6

Bal 5-6 3 5-9 2 1 6

(* I'm just gonna go ahead and say WAS loses to SF tonight.)

Then I did a magic thing to list them in a new order, with the worst record at the top of the list.

The new, official draft, that which will be in effect in 2014, follows:

Team Record Top 20 w/loss B12 x/2 Record

HOU 2-9 4 2-13 1 .5 2.5-13-5

MIN 2-8-1 4 2-13 1 .5 2.5-13-5

ATL 2-9 3 2-12 2 1 3-13

JAX 2-9 2 2-11 3 1.5 3.5-12.5

TB 3-8 4 3-12 1 .5 3.5-12.5

CLE 3-8 3 3-11 2 1 4-12

OAK 4-7 5 4-12 0 0 4-12

WAS 3-8* 2 3-10 3 1.5 4.5-11.5

BUF 3-8 2 3-10 3 1.5 4.5-11.5

NYG 4-7 3 4-10 2 1 5-11

PIT 5-6 3 5-9 2 1 6-10

Bal 5-6 3 5-9 2 1 6-10

So, we'll be strength-of-scheduling against the Bucs to see who gets to pick fourth.

Please modify your Mock Drafts accordingly.

(Sorry about figures not lining up. I tried, but it's beyond my technical expertise.)


FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.

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